Trump's Tariff Tango: From China Smackdown to Screw-Sized Surrender

 

Trump has exempted tariffs on certain electronic products such as computers, mobile phones, and semiconductors. Although not a complete exemption, this was a reluctant move on his part, coming just days after he raised tariffs on China by 145%. In the future, tariffs and rates on various other products will be repeatedly adjusted, exempted, and modified. Electronic products and daily necessities account for a significant share of China-US trade, and Trump’s concessions are, of course, due to internal pressures. His rationale for launching a global trade war is nothing more than ideas gleaned from a few outdated books and personal whims. He is an amateur politician lacking even basic political and economic knowledge, not even qualifying as a politician but rather a mediocre businessman.

The offshoring of manufacturing has been a US national policy since World War II, starting with Japan, then moving to the Asian Tigers, and later to China—a process spanning 80 years. It’s not something Trump can simply reverse with harsh words, tariff hikes, or verbal threats. Moving manufacturing out of China would require significant time to cultivate alternatives, while bringing it back to the US would necessitate rebuilding the manufacturing platform, which would take at least 15 years, a highly conservative estimate. Take Apple’s Tim Cook as an example: he explained that finding senior mold engineers for high-end smartphones in the US would barely fill a conference room, whereas in China, several football fields wouldn’t suffice. Bringing iPhone production entirely back to the US would require 700,000 skilled workers and 35,000 senior engineers, with employees willing to work over 12 hours a day. 

Apple only designs phones, while the supply chain is outside the US, and assembling requires sourcing all parts, even a single screw, from overseas. It’s hard to imagine Americans assembling screws as fine as a strand of hair, which demands a large number of young women with good eyesight working continuously. This is just one typical example in manufacturing; other industries face even greater challenges. Producing a standard household mini-fridge in China costs around $100, which is less than a single day’s wages and benefits for an American worker.

The US now produces nothing except high-tech products; its best product, its largest manufacturing industry, is the US dollar. In China-US trade, the US exports $170 billion in goods to China with over 50% profit margins, while China exports $500 billion to the US with profit margins below 10%. In reality, the US enjoys a significant trade surplus. China-US trade is a win-win: China addresses employment, while the US gains access to affordable, high-quality goods, offsetting inflation caused by excessive money printing. It’s normal for the US to suppress China, but it can only do so through ideological means. Starting a trade war lacks sufficient justification, and the retaliatory measures are extremely foolish. Targeting China requires uniting allies to pressure the biggest beneficiary of global trade. However, by launching a global tariff war, China has become the target of criticism, and the US has isolated itself.

Trump’s trade war aims to divert attention for Russia, buying time to lift sanctions and soften Putin’s image as an aggressor. More importantly, it’s about securing family profits—whether through issuing cryptocurrencies or secretly manipulating the stock market, all are means to scam money. This explains why he uses rhetoric to destabilize US financial markets. His erratic policies and capricious decisions are backed by financial dark pool operations, ultimately funneling money into his accounts. The so-called Russia-Ukraine ceasefire undermines NATO, helping Russia achieve interests it couldn’t on the battlefield. As a long-time strategic asset developed by Russia, Trump has accomplished nearly impossible tasks, reaping astronomical economic rewards. Russian and Putin’s overseas assets will be unfrozen, and Trump, a front for the former Soviet Union, has used his so-called real estate business as a cover for money laundering supported by Russian funds.

Elected again in his late seventies, his goal is not to make America great again but to lead it into decline. The trade war against China will end inconclusively. With so many grand goals and slogans in his three-plus-year term, none will be achieved, nor are they achievable. The China-US trade war will end with a casual remark from Trump, as he and his old friends have already reached an agreement, adding countless sums to his bank account. Moreover, China’s greatest strength internationally has never been manufacturing but its unrivaled ability to deliver benefits. Biden was no exception, and neither is Trump. Trump is now demanding a high price, and the family profits he secures will be even greater. His ultimate plan after this election is to extract money from China, Russia, and the US alike.