千變萬化的飛俠: 2026

2026年6月24日星期三

The Failure of America’s War Against Iran Leaves the Public Weary of the ‘American Khamenei’

When the United States planned to liquidate Cuba, it was already destined that Trump would make major concessions on the Iran issue. The final outcome was the signing of a treaty between the U.S. and Iran that, from the American perspective, was humiliating—almost a plea for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Not only were Iranian funds unfrozen, but $300 billion in reconstruction aid was provided. The entire agreement was essentially a replay of Obama’s Iran deal.

In the war, Iran’s losses were limited to its relatively outdated naval and air forces, along with several dozen senior officials including the head of the theocratic government. The regime itself remained intact, merely accelerating internal power transitions. To quell domestic uprisings, the Iranian government suppressed more than 40,000 protesters, who became sacrifices of Trump’s agreement. Iran received funds from the U.S. government to rebuild its administration and military. Groups such as Hamas, the Houthis, and Hezbollah will inevitably gain more financial support in the near future. As for nuclear facilities, they will certainly be rebuilt; Iran does not even need to hand over enriched uranium, and restarting centrifuges is only a matter of time. Previously, under sanctions, Iran could only export oil cheaply to China; after the agreement, it can sell globally. The killing of Khamenei and hundreds of senior officials was interpreted by many Muslims as martyrdom, elevating them to sainthood.

Thus, Iran’s presence in the Middle East was actually strengthened, becoming the true anti-American leader that withstood the U.S.–Iran war. The months-long conflict was nothing more than a clumsy farce, a political performance launched without careful planning, attempting to replicate the decapitation” success in Venezuela. It was meant to boost Trump’s faltering midterm election prospects, but ended in failure, forcing humiliating concessions to Iran. Without deploying ground forces for long-term suppression, it was impossible to quickly subdue the most powerful anti-American state in the region. Iran’s national and military strength is far beyond that of small Latin American countries. Israel lacks the capacity to completely resolve Iran’s nuclear issue; at best, military strikes can delay progress. Without a full-scale war, the U.S. cannot solve the problem. Before launching the war, America had made no preparations for a comprehensive conflict—the rationale was nothing more than Trump’s personal will and Israel’s one-sided narrative.

Even after the U.S. and Israel employed aggressive military measures and decapitated large numbers of Iranian leaders, Iran did not surrender. The government refused compromise, continued ountermeasures, and maintained the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, striking U.S. allies in the region across military, energy, transportation, and civilian infrastructure. As a result, Trump was forced into major concessions, ultimately ending the war hastily to avoid inflation driven by soaring energy prices. The “points” gained from Maduro’s decapitation in Venezuela were lost, even turned into negatives. A U.S. president cannot make major political, economic, or military decisions based solely on personal will. As the world’s largest democracy, America cannot revert to a monarchical era where a leader’s personal desires dictate national and foreign policy.

Iran, as the Middle East’s foremost anti-American state and Israel’s greatest threat, indeed requires military measures to resolve its nuclear issue. The theocratic regime arguably needs to be overthrown. Yet the overthrow of the secular Pahlavi government and the rise of the theocracy was itself a result of U.S. misjudgment. The failure of the recent war mirrors that past mistake—again caused by presidential miscalculation. Iran’s government did not collapse; its ally Russia benefited from partial energy sanctions relief, while China advanced its electric vehicle exports amid the oil crisis. Iran’s war losses were compensated by U.S. payments, even accelerating domestic power transitions. Regional anti-American forces will continue to receive more funding, and Iran’s international sanctions were effectively lifted, making it the biggest beneficiary.

The U.S. won every battle but lost the war. The greatest casualty was Trump himself—his scheming backfired, costing him credibility. His midterm election prospects collapsed further, as the American public grew weary of this “American-style Khamenei.”

美國對伊朗戰爭的失敗使得民衆對美版“哈梅内伊”開始厭倦

在美國打算清算古巴時就已經註定特朗普會在伊朗問題上做出重大讓步，最後結果是美伊簽署了一份對於美國來講喪權辱國的條約，幾乎是跪求伊朗重新開放霍爾木茲海峽，甚至不但解禁伊朗款項，還提供3千億美元重建費用，整個協議就是奧巴馬伊朗當年條約的翻版。

伊朗在戰爭中損傷的無非是不算先進的海空軍，還有幾十名高級官員包括神權政府首腦而已，整個政權完全沒有受到影響，只是變相加快了內部的權力更替。爲了平息內部民衆叛亂，伊朗政府鎮壓了4萬多名群衆，這些人也成了特朗普合約的犧牲品。伊朗從美國政府那裏得到資金重建政府和軍隊，哈馬斯，胡塞武裝，黎巴嫩真主黨等等反美勢力，也會在不遠的將來獲得更多資金支持，至於核武設施也必定會被重建，伊朗甚至都不用將濃縮鈾上交，離心機開動也只是時間問題。伊朗受制裁下只能低價出口石油給中國，協議後可以出口全世界，哈梅內伊及數百名高級官員被斬首，對於伊斯蘭教徒來講其實是升天成聖了。

如此一來伊朗在中東地區的存在感反而是加強了，成爲真正意義上扛住美伊戰爭打壓的中東反美領袖。整個持續數月的伊朗戰爭完全就是一出拙劣的鬧劇，在事前沒有精心謀劃準備下進行的政治表演，企圖複製對委內瑞拉的斬首行動成果，為特朗普處於頹勢中的中期選舉造勢，最後功虧一簣只能委曲求全下懇求伊朗讓步。不出動地面部隊進行長期軍事打壓，如何能夠短時期內徹底制服中東地區最有實力的反美國家，伊朗的國力和軍力遠非美洲小國可比。以色列沒有能力徹底解決伊朗核武問題，只能通過軍事打擊延遲時間，美國不對伊朗發動全面戰爭也不可能解決。在戰爭發起前美國根本沒有進行任何全面戰爭的準備，發動戰爭的理據無非是特朗普的個人意志，還有以色列的一面之詞。

美以採取激烈軍事手段打壓伊朗，並且斬首對方大量政府高層後伊朗並未投降，伊朗政府不妥協持續反制，封鎖霍爾木茲海峽持續打擊中東地區美國盟友，將打擊擴展到軍事，能源，交通，民生等等一切設施，爲此特朗普不得不做出重大讓步，最後甚至爲了避免惡性通脹下的能源價格上漲，只能草草結束戰爭。斬首委內瑞拉馬杜洛的得分喪失，甚至還要被反扣成負分，美國最高領袖做出任何重大政經軍事決斷不能完全依靠個人意志，美國作爲全世界最大的民主政府，不能再次回到皇權時代，將政治領袖的個人意願綁架到自己國家甚至外國政府上。

伊朗作爲中東地區的反美國家，以色列最大威脅，的確需要利用軍事手段徹底解決該國的核武問題，伊朗神權政府也確實有被推翻的必要，但是當年伊朗巴列維世俗政府的推翻和神權政權的建立，美國應該負上最大責任是當時美國政府的判斷失誤所造成。而現在伊朗戰爭的失敗原因與當年別無二致，仍然是美國總統的判斷失誤所造成。伊朗政府沒有垮臺，政治盟友俄羅斯還因戰爭部份解禁了能源出售，中國因石油危機推動了新能源汽車的出口。伊朗的戰爭損失竟然還獲得了美國的賠償，而且促進了國內政權交替的速度。周邊反美勢力也將持續獲得更多資金支持，伊朗的國際制裁變相被解禁成爲最大受益者。美國在對伊朗戰爭中，打贏了每一場戰鬥卻輸掉了戰爭。戰爭最大的受害者是特朗普，他的小聰明反而使他失去了顔面，中期選舉就更加沒有指望了，因爲美國民衆對於這位美版“特梅內伊”已經厭倦了。