Horse year and bad luck for Maduro Captured at New Year

 

Maduro, the President of Venezuela, was captured alive by U.S. military action. According to Trump’s version of events, it was Russian military advisers who betrayed him, revealing all of Maduro’s secrets to the Americans, which ultimately led to U.S. forces seizing the Venezuelan president without a fight. In the “Year of the Horse,” those connected to “horse” are said to be unlucky—Maduro’s surname sounds like “horse” in Chinese, so he was the first to be struck at the start of the new year.

Believing the story of a Russian colonel betraying the president is too naïve. The real mastermind must be Putin, who sold out Maduro and his wife as a bargaining chip to escape the quagmire of the Russia–Ukraine war. He is Trump’s true boss. For this, the U.S. was willing to withdraw from NATO, betray its European allies, lose international credibility, and even help Putin by pressuring Ukraine to cede territory and pay reparations. Rumors of a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire are likely not baseless—there may already be a secret agreement. Venezuela, as a pawn, was abandoned to give Trump a boost in his poor record, helping him regain ground for the upcoming midterm elections.

After losing badly in the U.S.–China trade war, Trump has been moving aggressively: launching strikes in Thailand against Chinese-backed Cambodian cyber fraud parks, carrying out a decapitation operation in Venezuela—all aimed at China. China has massive investments in Venezuela, including energy interests and military aid, and Maduro himself is deeply tied to Beijing. His political faction is heavily influenced by China. The collapse of the Venezuelan government would be a major blow to China—not only economically, in energy and military terms, but also by uprooting one of the most important Belt and Road footholds in the Americas.

As a businessman-president, Trump does not want to follow previous administrations in propping up a pro-U.S. government there. Instead, under political and military cover, he intends for American energy companies and traders to control Venezuela’s economy through cooperation, and then expand influence across all sectors. For this reason, the country’s opposition leader—who just won a Nobel Prize—has not received U.S. support. The deeper meaning is that Trump must consider Russia’s interests in the region, so he has no intention of completely purging the old government for now. At the same time, he is watching China’s reaction. Maduro and his wife, along with China’s interests in Venezuela, have become Trump’s key bargaining chips.

Trump’s urgency in resolving the Russia–Ukraine war is not only to please Putin, but also because he needs to gather strength to confront China. After years of trade war, he realized he cannot defeat China economically. The initiator of the so-called Indo-Pacific strategy, Shinzo Abe, has already been assassinated, and even Trump himself nearly got shot during his campaign. India, having lost an air battle to Pakistan backed by China, is of little use. Thus, Trump urgently needs new breakthroughs to rebuild the strategic zone: Japan protecting Taiwan, increased arms sales to Taiwan, Thailand striking Cambodia, the decapitation of Venezuela’s leadership, and even Iran’s internal unrest—largely caused by years of U.S. sanctions—all are part of America’s intensified pressure campaign against China. Just three hours after China’s envoy visited Venezuela and made promises, the U.S. launched military action. Economically, America cannot match China’s global expansion, but strategically, it does not even regard China as a serious rival.

China’s international partners are dwindling, essentially facing political, diplomatic, and military encirclement. In East Asia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are moving; to the north, Russia; to the southwest, India; to the south, Southeast Asian nations—all are taking action. In the Americas, Venezuela is unstable; in the Middle East, Iran is in turmoil. The pressure on China has shifted from the economic level of the trade war to the strategic level. The anti-U.S. policy pursued by China’s top leadership for over a decade, if not adjusted in time, will inevitably lead to military confrontation. If China loses allies internationally—even Russia siding with the U.S.—then under extreme encirclement, even winning the trade war would leave China isolated by the global community. Ultimately, this would trigger internal economic collapse. Right now is the most critical test for China’s reformist faction.