The Russia–Ukraine war has lasted for a full four years and is
still stuck in a stalemate. After Donald Trump came to power, he hoped to force
Ukraine to cede territory and pay compensation through strong pressure. In the
end, due to strong backlash from Europe, he did not succeed, and
internationally it also triggered negative consequences. Ultimately, the U.S.
had to withdraw, which indirectly helped Russia and led to the collapse of
NATO. His pre-election promise to end the war within 24 hours was nothing but a
joke, just like many of his other empty political promises. Putin cannot accept
a ceasefire under any conditions, because that would mean losing his legitimacy
to rule. In Russian history, after paying a huge price without gaining land or
benefits, such an outcome is unacceptable for a strong leader, as it would show
national weakness. As long as the war continues, Putin can maintain domestic
control; otherwise, once millions of troops return home after a ceasefire, it
would mean the end of his political life. Russia has experienced this more than
once in history.
For Ukraine, sustaining the war is not difficult, since Europe
has basically passed legislation openly supporting Ukraine’s fight against
Russia. As long as European funding arrives, Ukraine can keep fighting. For
Russia, the continuation of the war also comes down to money. With Russia’s
energy exports having dropped sharply, the war now depends more on China’s
support. If China continues to buy Russian energy, the war can go on;
otherwise, only a ceasefire remains. At present, neither side has the strength
to unilaterally change the course of the war. Russia relies on human-wave
tactics to maintain offensives, but these small-scale attacks are militarily
meaningless. Ukraine has shifted to a defensive posture, concentrating strikes
on Russia’s energy facilities, manufacturing, communications, and military
industries, gradually weakening Russia’s war potential and extending the impact
into civilian life.
This all-around attrition has moved beyond the battlefield to
affect the daily lives of ordinary Russians. Objectively speaking, maintaining
the stalemate benefits both sides, and the costs are relatively manageable.
Compared with the large-scale clashes in the early stages of the war, Russia
now launches company-level assaults in occupied areas every day, entangling
with Ukrainian forces just to sustain the situation. Although Russia pays the
price of thousands of casualties daily, it considers this negligible, as long
as it can mobilize enough manpower and equipment to keep going. Ukraine has
grown accustomed to Russia’s attacks; as long as it can hold the front lines
and launch limited counteroffensives in summer, it can manage.
Both Putin and Zelensky insist on continuing the fight. Trump’s
ability to interfere is limited—his chaos is global, and Russia is only one
part of it. In fact, Putin has always been the one controlling Trump, leaving
Trump helpless. Going forward, Europe will be the main driver of the war, while
the U.S. has lost its global hegemon status and become a secondary power.
Raising tariffs to suppress other countries will not succeed. Trump is merely
an anomaly, a transitional political clown whose actions will eventually be
erased and judged. For now, it is only a matter of how long the world can
tolerate what remains of his political life.
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