Trump pressured the
Iranian government to begin negotiations within 15 days, otherwise military
action would be taken. At the same time, two U.S. aircraft carrier fleets
arrived at designated positions, exerting military pressure on Iran. This kind
of “maximum pressure” tactic has already been used countless times. To believe
he would actually launch a war against Iran is naïve—this is merely his
bargaining excuse. After a few days, he will deny everything he said and repeat
the same trick again. To truly start a war requires strategic deception, as the
art of war says: “When far, show as near; when near, show as far; when capable,
show as incapable.” Before fighting, there must be prolonged negotiations to
lull the opponent while preparing comprehensively, then strike suddenly when
the enemy is unprepared.
In today’s information age, where military actions are highly transparent, launching a war against a strong Middle Eastern opponent with nearly a million regular and irregular troops by simply announcing it verbally is laughable. Iran, as the long-time center of anti-American and anti-Israeli resistance, has fought a decade-long religious war with Iraq. With a land area of over a million square kilometers and a population exceeding 100 million, although its air force is weak, its army has some strength and is capable of
guerrilla warfare and total war. The country possesses a complete military industry, able to produce everything from bayonets to ballistic missiles. Even under recent overwhelming Israeli airstrikes targeting nuclear facilities, Iran can retaliate with issiles and drones, to the point of nearly exhausting Israel’s air defense ammunition.
Although the U.S. has long stationed troops in the Middle East, even with Israeli forces, any military action against Iran would require ground warfare. In such a case, even a U.S.-Israeli coalition would lack sufficient manpower and is not prepared for a prolonged war. Iranian uprisings are sudden events, and future developments are unpredictable. Trump’s so-called maximum pressure is nothing more than a political show, intended to attract attention and boost his political standing. He is merely a clumsy businessman, not a statesman. His main purpose in governing is to consolidate internal control and secure family interests. Large-scale military action, let alone war, is not his option, and he has consistently avoided it during his administration.
As for the capture of Venezuela’s Maduro, it was merely a political show completed under full infiltration and coordination with Russia’s Putin. In form, key military targets were bombed, and with no resistance, less than a platoon of special forces carried out the operation—one U.S. soldier wounded, about 30 Cuban casualties. After the political deal was struck, the arrest was just a procedural step. Russian military advisers were the real directors of the operation, so Maduro was nothing more than a bargaining chip.
To eliminate Iran’s theocratic government cannot be achieved by airstrikes alone. Moreover, Iran has already prepared for Trump’s repeated pressure, currently stabilizing domestic conditions and suppressing uprisings. The U.S., apart from verbal support for Iranian protesters, has provided no substantive military aid, and has even restricted Israel. Trump’s current military pressure is just another online war of words, given his long-standing lack of credibility. The movement of one or two carrier fleets proves
nothing—after all, four carrier fleets cruising in the Asia-Pacific is common. Therefore, a war against Iran is unlikely in the short term. This is simply Trump, after a few weeks of quiet, making money again in the stock market.
Iran’s oil will only come into play after the U.S. digests Venezuela’s reserves. As for Trump’s constant outrageous remarks, the whole world knows they are nothing more than tricks to attract attention like an internet celebrity.
