千變萬化的飛俠

2026年3月26日星期四

The U.S.–Iran negotiations are nothing but a sham, and before the midterm elections Trump will absolutely not withdraw troops

The brief so‑called negotiation period between the U.S. and Iran is about to end. During this time, Trump applied for $200 billion in military funding, with troops and equipment already deployed. What the media described as Trump “TACO” does not exist. The negotiation terms exchanged by the two countries are nothing but pipe dreams. The next step for the U.S. military—occupying Kharg Island—is inevitable. Once the island is controlled, it is equivalent to controlling Iran’s oil exports and part of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. military has already bombed the island’s ground facilities, and naturally the next move is ground forces engaging in an island seizure operation.

Some EU countries are participating in escort missions, and Gulf states joining the fight is already on the agenda, though more time is needed. Even if the U.S. and Israel wanted a ceasefire now, Gulf states—under security threats—would still need to intensify strikes against Iran. A military alliance for sustained attacks on Iran has already formed, and the war is showing signs of becoming prolonged, lasting months or even longer depending on circumstances. Israel, despite its absolute advantage, has struggled with Hamas for a long time; how much more difficult it would be against Iran, one of the stronger powers in the Middle East. Trump’s conditions for a ceasefire are clear: Iran must hand over enriched uranium, establish a pro‑U.S. government, allow free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, stop all military resistance, let the U.S. dominate oil and gas control, and refrain from launching special operations against neighboring countries. As long as Iran refuses, there will be no ceasefire—especially since the U.S. and Israel currently hold absolute military superiority.

Iran’s ability to resist relies on the complete military system built for it over decades by China and Russia. Its vast underground facilities give it the capacity to withstand two to three rounds of U.S.‑Israeli strikes. Earlier, street protests in Iran were suppressed, key figures and uprising leaders eliminated, and the government had essentially stabilized the domestic situation before U.S. attacks began. Unless Iran’s military and irregular forces are completely destroyed, it is impossible for the public to launch a larger uprising in coordination with military strikes. Kurdish guerrillas are negligible. Iran still possesses considerable unconventional warfare capabilities, able to attack neighboring countries’ energy and civilian infrastructure in ways that are hard to defend against. The U.S. has no ability to provide total protection.

Eliminating Iran’s military resistance is the only solution, which requires ground forces to intervene for actual occupation and target clearance. Entering Kharg Island is not too difficult for U.S. forces; the challenge lies in eliminating remaining defenders and securing the island effectively. The island has numerous underground facilities, and fighting in areas dense with energy infrastructure while avoiding large‑scale destruction poses certain difficulties. But if Kharg Island is successfully taken and controlled, Iran’s bargaining power will be greatly weakened. The war now depends on how long Iran’s stored war energy can last. The U.S. will not withdraw at least before the midterm elections, and Gulf states hope to resolve the Iran issue completely.

However, if the war drags on, Trump may at any time fabricate a reason and suddenly withdraw troops without warning, shifting the burden of striking Iran onto Israel. Only then would Iran have a glimmer of survival.

美伊談判是“假戲假做”中期選舉前特朗普絕不會撤兵

美伊之間短暫的所謂談判期即將結束，在此期間特朗普申請了2千億作戰經費，部隊和裝備已經部署到位，媒體上所稱特朗普再次TACO並不存在，兩國互開的談判談判條件都是癡人説夢。美軍下一步占領哈爾克島勢在必行，只要控制了該島等於控制了伊朗的石油出口和部份霍爾木茲海峽，美軍已經對該島地面軍事設施進行了轟炸，然後自然是地面部隊參戰奪島。

歐盟部份國家參與護航和海灣國家參戰，已經進入日程但需要更多時間。現在的情勢即便美以想停戰，海灣國家在安全威脅下，也需要加劇對伊朗的軍事打擊，現在已形成一個對伊朗持續打擊的軍事聯盟，戰爭有進入長期化的形勢，至少還會根據實際情況持續數月甚至更久。以色列絕對優勢下打擊哈馬斯都曠日持久，何況是國力在中東靠前的伊朗。特朗普停戰的前提很明確，伊朗交出濃縮鈾，建立親美政府，霍爾木茲海峽通行，停止一切軍事抵抗，油氣控制權由美國主導，不得發動對周邊國家的特種作戰。只要伊朗政府不接受條件就不會停戰，況且現在是美以處於絕對軍事優勢的前提下。

現在伊朗的對抗能力依靠的是數十年來中俄為其打造的完整軍事系統。伊朗軍隊在地下的龐大的軍事設施，完全有能力抵禦美以2-3輪的軍事打擊。早前伊朗人民的街頭抗議被鎮壓，關鍵人物和起義領袖已遭撲殺，伊朗政府在美國打擊前基本控制住了國內形勢。除非徹底消滅伊朗軍隊和非正規軍事力量，民衆發動更大規模的起義，配合軍事打擊是不可能的。所謂庫爾族人的散兵游勇不值一提，伊朗直到目前仍然具有相當的超限戰能力，攻擊周邊國家的能源和民生設施防不勝防，美囯根本沒有能力提供徹底全面的保護。

只有消滅伊朗軍事抵抗力量才是唯一解決方法，因此必須有地面部隊的介入，進行實質的軍事占領和目標清除。美軍進入哈爾克島難度不大，關鍵是如何清除殘存的守軍和有效防守該島。島上的地下軍事設施衆多，況且還要在能源設備密集的地點作戰，盡量不造成大面積毀壞的前提下，應該說存在一定難度。但是如果哈爾克島順利拿下並且能夠有效控制，伊朗的談判籌碼必定是大幅削弱。現在戰爭其實是看伊朗儲存的戰爭能量究竟能夠消耗多久，美國至少在中期選舉前不會撤兵，而且海灣國家希望徹底解決伊朗問題。

但如果戰爭向著長期化發展，特朗普可能隨時編造任何理由，毫無徵兆地突然撤軍，把打擊伊朗的軍事壓力轉嫁給以色列，如此伊朗才會有一綫生機。