Did Trump really get a call from China or just losing his mind again

 

Trump claims that negotiations with China on tariff issues are progressing well, stating he received a call from China's top leader and that both sides will soon reach an agreement. However, China's Foreign Ministry completely denies this. In reality, while Trump’s stance has softened, China has decided to adopt a national strategy to confront the U.S. trade war. Trump’s unpredictability and lack of credibility are well-known. During the last trade war, which wasn’t solely targeted at China, the confrontation between the two sides was exceptionally intense. China not only tore up the signed agreement, completely refusing to honor the U.S.’s trade commitments, but also launched a “pandemic war” to drive Trump out of office. Given such determination back then, why would China bow to trade pressures this time?

Since taking office, China’s top leadership has consistently adopted a hostile stance toward the West, aiming to challenge the U.S. for global dominance. This strategy contradicts the 40 years of reform and opening-up policies, failing to gain international recognition and sparking domestic opposition. This has led to internal and external troubles, economic decline, and public discontent, even affecting the authority of the top leader. However, Trump’s return to power and the initiation of a tougher new trade war seem to validate the correctness of China’s long-standing confrontational approach: “The imperialist U.S. will never abandon its intent to destroy us.” Rather than being contained and suppressed, losing power, it’s better to fight to the end and become the true “defender of international trade.” Recent reports from all Chinese think tanks agree that Trump’s tariff war, driven by his foreign trade policies, will ultimately end in America’s complete failure. Thus, China must seize this historic opportunity. China’s approach is a national strategy, not dictated by Trump’s personal will, and the tariff war will not end quickly.

During the pandemic, China imposed three years of lockdowns, particularly sealing off coastal cities for over a month after the Russia-Ukraine war began. The real purpose was to support Russia. China and Russia had agreed that once Russia’s surprise attack on Kyiv succeeded, China would immediately launch an attack on Taiwan. To counter military pressure from the U.S. and Japan, China locked down major coastal economic cities, believing a month was sufficient to resolve the Taiwan issue. Once the situation was settled, China would then pursue compromises with the West. The so-called comprehensive lockdowns, restricting people’s lives and freedoms while using high-tech surveillance, served another purpose: establishing a wartime system to counter future U.S. pressure. If the U.S. completely decouples from China, leading to war, China has already made comprehensive preparations, conducting rehearsals and adjustments.

A full-scale trade war with the U.S. will ultimately lead to economic devastation, widespread hardship, business closures, mass unemployment, and social unrest. At most, China can adopt a wartime system with total surveillance, leveraging the inherent advantages of its authoritarian regime to maintain control. China has long prepared for a protracted trade war with the U.S., lasting at least 1-2 years or longer, and has not ruled out military conflict. Similar to the West’s strategy in the Russia-Ukraine war, China does not seek a quick, comprehensive victory but aims to exhaust the opponent’s strength over time. In contrast, the U.S. is entirely unprepared. While it has temporarily suspended tariffs on other countries for three months, China has become the primary target, bearing the brunt of the pressure. Trump intends to resolve the China issue first, but if he fails, other nations will likely follow China’s lead. As the leader of the anti-American front, China will also be courted by other countries to counterbalance the U.S.

If China wins, it will shake the U.S.’s position as the global hegemon. Economically powerful players like the EU, Japan, and South Korea, which have close economic ties with China and are dissatisfied with Trump’s protectionism, do not welcome U.S. tariff policies. They only yield under pressure. Globalization has expanded for decades since the Cold War, benefiting all parties, and cannot be undone by threats or tariffs—it requires reshaping the global trade system. Decoupling from China’s economy and relocating manufacturing also requires cultivating alternatives. The impact of cutting off Chinese goods has not yet surfaced but will likely manifest during the summer consumption peak, affecting supply chains and prices. Biden’s downfall was due to uncontrolled inflation, and Trump will face the same issue. The American public cares little about partisan disputes and is focused on daily life. As for the so-called return of manufacturing, while people see it as beneficial to the nation, returning to factory work is seen as unrealistic.

The U.S., aside from producing dollars, manufactures nothing. Its priority is maintaining the dollar’s privileged status. Losing the dollar’s global dominance would spell doom. The U.S.-China trade war will severely weaken China, potentially undoing decades of reform and opening-up achievements, but the U.S. will also suffer greatly and decline. For the U.S., the urgent task is to stop Trump’s reckless policies and return to previous economic and trade routes while time remains. Following American tradition, extraordinary measures should be considered if necessary. Authoritarian rivals should be punished, but this requires a gradual approach, uniting allies for a long-term strategy of containment and attrition. 

U.S.-China trade accounts for 40% of the global total, and mishandling it will harm the entire world. For the U.S., the biggest problem now is Trump himself.