Kim sends 100,000 more troops to Putin holding until January and everyone wins when Trump back

 

North Korean troops have been confirmed to be fighting in Ukraine, with a total of 15,000 troops cooperating with the Russians in the restoration of Kursk, and a total of five divisions of the Russian and North Korean coalition forces with nearly 60,000 troops are now fighting in the area, aiming to clear the Ukrainian army by January next year. Until now, there has been limited information about the North Korean army, and most of it is negative, such as raping women, accidentally eating napkins containing alcohol and dying, and not knowing what to do about the drone strikes. As for the question of whether or not the involvement of the North Korean army will lead to a change in the war situation, so far it has not had any effect, and it will only fill up part of the Russian army's strength. Even the so-called special forces sent by the DPRK army have not shown the strong combat power as rumored, but they are extremely unsuited to the modern war environment. Instead, they are not adapted to the modern war environment. Even the strongest combat power can hardly be utilized in the battlefield strangulation warfare that has developed in the Russian-Ukrainian war so far. 

 

The Ukrainian army has advanced weapons and strong firepower, but the Russian army is huge and not afraid of consumption, so it is difficult to break the stalemate between the two sides. Objectively speaking, the price paid by the Russian army for this is huge, casualties have exceeded 700,000, and every day often to the cost of casualties of a regiment of more than 1,000 people in exchange for limited progress, the casualty rate of the First World War is 1.2, the Second World War, 0.7, and now the Russian army has reached a staggering 1.7, in the huge consumption of the Russian army to survive to the present is really not easy. Faced with Ukraine's advanced weapons and strong firepower, the Russian army to the traditional tactics of man-to-man warfare, from the historical point of view of the Russian army has been bellicose but not good at fighting, every battle from both the strategic and tactical point of view of the analysis of the lack of excellence, but can be the ultimate means to restore the disadvantage is to fill up the life of the ultimate means of not stingy consumption, and the courage to sacrifice at all costs to the end. Even in the 21st century, the Russian-Ukrainian war is still the same, even if the creation of nearly 2,000 casualties a day, only a few hundred meters of progress does not care, even if you can replace the other side of the 1/5 of the troops, insisting on a month down can also eliminate tens of thousands of people. 

 

Russia, because of its relatively large area and large population, could use its national strength to recruit more soldiers, and relied on this method of warfare to win over Germany. The German army had an absolute advantage in every aspect of military affairs, but it finally lost to the unimaginable mobilization ability of the Soviet Union, and with the unlimited support of Europe and the United States in the areas of logistics, weapons, supplies, and funds, it finally defeated Germany, which was the No.1 army in terms of military strength. The German Fascist army, which was the most powerful army in terms of military strength, was finally defeated. Now this kind of war relying on manpower consumption is still continuing, but even so in the face of such high casualties in the Russian army is also difficult to maintain, so for Russia to talk about the development of the war to the present, their biggest advantage is human resources, the other side of the weapons and then advanced firepower and strong, in the face of the close proximity of the sea of people tactical position strangulation is not able to do so, so for the Russian army to talk about the war as long as the strength to be able to maintain the war will be able to go on. So, for the Russians, as long as they had enough troops to keep the war going, they could continue. 

 

Finally simmered to the international situation to produce changes, produce their own favorable situation will have a turnaround, and now the fact is that Trump came to power after the first thing to do is to help Putin to get rid of the passive situation of the current war, because of the help of the Russians to make Trump can be on the stage, that is, the so-called ‘Russia gate,’ Putin has the relevant evidence in his hands. Therefore, Trump must immediately stop the war, even if it is to maintain the current situation, for Russia is also very favorable, after all, to get the four eastern states and Crimea is a realistic interest, so even if it is to pay a high price, for Putin is also worth it, he for Russia to fight for the land, in fact, is to win the war. Ukraine has lost its land, its country has been destroyed, and its people have sacrificed so much that in the end it could not join NATO, and it has been a complete failure with nothing to show for it. Therefore, before the so-called armistice agreement is reached, both Russia and Ukraine have to do their best to gain bargaining chips for future negotiations. For Russia, it's about replenishing troops to maintain the battle line and driving out the Ukrainian army as much as possible. 

Russia will be the big winner. This is also the origin of the rumor that North Korea will quickly add 100,000 troops to help Russia, and from the original gradual increase in troops to the current one-step without delay, North Korea will certainly send a large number of troops to help the Russian army in the near future, mainly in the Kursk region to combat the Ukrainian army. It doesn't matter how strong the North Korean army is, as long as it can consume the enemy to buy time. For Kim Jong-un, it would be better to exchange benefits with Putin instead of keeping a non-combatant army for years. Moreover, the international situation will change drastically after Trump takes office, and it will be more profitable to invest more in the war now and in the future. Therefore, for Kim Jong-un to increase the strength of the troops can not only help Putin, but also in the future to create and Trump bargaining chips, as for how many tens of thousands of people to pay the price is not matter!

金三胖對普縂說再給十萬部隊熬到1月臥底川普上臺大家都贏了

 

朝鮮軍隊在烏克蘭參戰已經被證實，總共1萬5千人正在配合俄軍收復庫爾斯克，現在朝俄聯軍共有5個師將近6萬人在當地作戰，目的是爭取在明年1月清除烏克蘭軍隊。直到目前爲止傳出的有關朝鮮軍隊的具體情況有限，而且大多是負面新聞，類似強姦婦女，誤食含有酒精的餐巾紙導致死亡，對於無人機的打擊不知所措等等。至於說朝鮮軍隊的介入是否會導致戰局的變化，從目前看並未產生任何影響，無非就是填充俄軍的部份兵力罷了。朝鮮軍隊即便派出了所謂特種部隊也未顯示出傳聞中的強大戰鬥力，反而是對於現代戰爭環境極不適應。面對俄烏戰爭進行到現在形成的陣地絞殺戰，即便是戰鬥力再強也難於發揮。

 

烏軍的武器先進火力強大，但俄軍體量龐大不怕消耗，因此雙方僵持的局面難於打破。客觀上說俄軍爲此付出的代價是巨大的，傷亡已經突破70萬，而且每天經常以死傷1個團過千人的代價來換取有限的進展，一戰的傷亡率是1.2，二戰0.7，現在俄軍已經達到驚人的1.7，在如此巨大消耗之下俄羅斯軍隊能夠支撐到現在實屬不易。面對烏克蘭的先進武器和強大火力，俄軍以傳統的人海戰術對應，從歷史上看俄軍就是好戰不善戰，每戰無論是從戰略和戰術角度分析都乏善可陳，但能最後屢屢挽回劣勢的終極手段就是堆填生命不吝消耗，而且勇於犧牲不計代價死撐到底。即便到了21世紀的俄烏戰場依然如此，即便創造了一天近2千人的傷亡，只取得幾百米的進展也毫不在乎，哪怕能夠抵換掉對方1/5的兵力，堅持一個月下來也能消滅幾萬人。

 

俄羅斯由於地域相對廣大人口較多，可以動用舉國主力徵召更多兵員，當年依靠這種作戰方式最後打贏了德國，德軍在軍事上無論哪一方面都處於絕對優勢，最後還是敗給了蘇聯難以想像的戰爭動員能力，配合當時歐美在後勤，武器，物資，資金等方面的無限支持，最後打敗了軍武第一的德國法西斯軍隊。現在這種依靠人力消耗的作戰方式仍在繼續，但即便如此面對如此的高傷亡俄軍也難於維持，因此對於俄羅斯來講戰爭發展到現在，己方最大的優勢就是人力資源，對方武器再先進火力再強大，面對近距離的人海戰術陣地絞殺也是力不從心，所以對於俄軍來講只要兵力夠能維持戰爭就能進行下去。

 

最後熬到國際形勢產生變化，產生對己方有利的局面就會有轉機，而現在的事實就是如此，特朗普上臺後首先要做的就是幫助普京擺脫目前戰爭的被動局面，因爲當年正是由於俄國的幫助才使得特朗普能夠順利上臺，即所謂“通俄門”，普京手上掌握著相關證據。因此，特朗普必須立刻出手停戰，哪怕是維持目前的局面，對於俄羅斯來講也非常有利，畢竟得到東部4州和克裡米亞是現實利益，如此即便是付出高昂代價，對於普京來講也是值得的，他為俄羅斯爭取了土地，實際上就是打贏了戰爭。烏克蘭喪土失地國家被破壞，人民犧牲巨大下最後也不能加入北約，一無所得完全失敗。因此俄烏雙方在所謂的停戰協定達成之前，都要拼盡全力爭取將來的談判籌碼。對於俄羅斯來講就是要補充兵員維持戰綫，盡可能驅趕烏克蘭軍隊，在戰爭中得不到的可以通過特朗普在談判中得到，只要能夠停戰維持現狀俄國就是大贏家。

 

這也是朝鮮將會迅速增補10萬兵力幫助俄羅斯傳聞的由來，而且從原來的逐步增兵到現在一步到位刻不容緩，朝鮮必定在近期出動大量兵力幫助俄軍，主要是在庫爾斯克地區打擊烏軍。朝鮮軍隊戰鬥力如何無關緊要，只要能夠消耗對方爭取時間即可。對於金正恩來説與其常年豢養不作戰的軍隊，還不如直接和普京換取各種利益。況且特朗普上臺後國際情勢將發生巨變，現在只要在戰爭中投入更多將來的利益更大。因此，對於金正恩來講加大出兵力度不但能夠幫助普京，而且還能在未來創造和特朗普交涉的籌碼，至於付出多少萬人的代價是無所謂的。看來三胖的政治智慧遠比鄰國的那位高明。

Kim Jong-un, joined the war to saving food, getting money and weapons, has won 3 times already

 

It has been confirmed by all parties that North Korea will send troops to Ukraine, initially more than 10,000 people from one division will be sent to the battlefield in Ukraine after training, but according to the current situation, it is not a special force of North Korea, but young recruits who have been selected, and this time, the troops can receive about 200 million US dollars of aid from neighbouring countries, and the majority of the soldiers' monthly salary of 2,000 US dollars will go into Kim Jong-un's personal pockets, and only a very small amount will benefit the soldiers and their families, and even if it is consumed during the war, it will also save food for North Korean military. 

 

It is hard to say how the direct deployment of troops by North Korea will affect the war situation. From the point of view of the initial strength of one division, it will not change the war situation, but it will have a role to play in the acceleration of NATO's troop deployment. At least France has already made its attitude towards troop deployment clear in May, and a company of reconnaissance troops has already begun to conduct a field inspection, but it is said that they have suffered a great deal of casualties in a short period of time, and so we have not heard of any news of the French troops' deployment lately. 

 

It is rumoured that Korean troops will be stationed in the Kursk region to help the Russians regain their lost territory, but it is difficult to verify this. If the troops are dispersed and stationed in different positions to carry out regular warfare, the Korean troops lack basic training, have poor physical fitness, are unfamiliar with the new weapons and equipment, and have no knowledge of high-tech warfare, so it is difficult for them to adapt to the new battlefield environment quickly. It was even difficult for them to carry out the orders correctly because they did not speak the language. 

 

The most important thing is who should be in command of the troops. If the troops were under the command of Korean officers, they should be more powerful, but Korean officers lacked the experience of the Russian army in the battlefield, so direct combat would probably result in great casualties. If the troops are dispersed into Russian units, they are just ordinary recruits. Moreover, the troops sent by the DPRK this time are not the main force of the DPRK army, but are general troops recruited and transferred to the battlefield after a short period of training by the Russian army. 

 

It is impossible for the army to remain unaffected by the years of sanctions imposed by the DPRK. The daily food supply for ordinary troops is only 500 grams or so, which makes it very difficult to perform duties, not to mention basic military training. Due to the long-term malnutrition of the nationals, the height requirement for enlisting male soldiers is only 1.45 metres, and the first thing that soldiers of this quality have to do is to replenish nutrients to recover their physical strength and to adjust their bodies to keep them in good health before they can undergo adapted military training. 

 

Of course, there is no doubt about the will of the DPRK army to fight, especially its main force, but after all, in the present high-tech environment of modern warfare, in the face of Ukraine's superiority in weaponry with the support of the West, it is naturally out of place to rely on the tactics of the past. Although the number of North Korean troops participating in the war is not large, with the needs of the war, if we can deploy 10 divisions of more than 100,000 troops, or can play a role in the battlefield. At least after accumulating some combat experience, they can replace the Russian army for rest and recuperation, fill the holes in the battle line, assist in completing military projects, and share some of the combat tasks. 

 

Now that the Russian and Ukrainian armies are locked in a stalemate, and all sides have a high demand for additional troops, a large increase in the number of North Korean troops would be very favourable to the Russian army in every way. Moreover, the Korean army has traditionally inherited the Soviet Union's establishment, and has recently supplied a large number of weapons to the Russian army, so the Korean army is very familiar with the use of self-produced weapons. The Korean army is familiar with the use of its own weapons. It is difficult for the Korean army to bring its combat power into full play in the battlefield of Russia and Ukraine, where it has been consuming a lot of troops, and facing the attack of Ukraine's superior weapons and equipments. 

 

However, if the DPRK continues to increase its troops, it will at least have a numerical advantage. South Korea is now sensitive to North Korea's response to the troops, in order to provide weapons and ammunition to Ukraine and send military personnel, if the South Korean troops to participate in the war will have a significant impact on the Russian-Ukrainian war, so that is equivalent to North Korea and South Korea in the Ukrainian war officially started, the development of which will naturally lead to the Korean Peninsula, the development of direct war, and ultimately lead to the Chinese, Japanese and U.S. parties involved in the process. 

 

It is inevitable that the war between North Korea and NATO will deteriorate into a world war between Russia and Ukraine. However, from what we have seen so far, the scale of North Korea's troop deployment is not large and the number of troops is not large, not the main force is completely of a trial nature, and the subsequent large-scale deployment of formed and regular main force is doubtful. Kim Jong-un's million-strong army is ill-equipped with limited combat power, and if a large number of troops are consumed overseas, it will directly affect his family's rule in Korea.  

It would be more in line with Kim Jong-un's long-term goal to exchange Russia's food, energy, military equipment, technology and neighbouring countries' economic interests for a limited number of troops, and then make adjustments as the future develops. Therefore, the participation of North Korean troops in the war should not be over-interpreted, and from the present point of view, it is just a means for Kim Jong-un to earn foreign exchange.

 

 

 

朝軍參戰節省了糧食賺了外匯獲得軍備金正恩三贏都不止

 

朝鮮派兵烏克蘭已經為各方所確認，初期1個師1萬多人經訓練後將派往烏克蘭戰場，但按照目前情況看並非朝鮮特種部隊，而是經過選拔的年輕新兵，本次出兵可以收到大約2億美元由鄰國出資的援助，士兵每月2千美元的薪金的大多數將進入金正恩的私人腰包，只會有極少數金額惠及士兵及其家庭，況且即便在戰事中消耗掉也節省了糧食。至於說朝鮮直接出兵會對戰局產生何種影響很難說，從初期1個師的兵力來看不會對戰局產生變化，但對北約是否加速出兵會有作用，至少法國已在5月份明確表示了出兵的態度，並且有1個連的偵察兵已經開始實地考察，但據說短時間內傷亡慘重，因此近來沒有再聽聞法軍出動的消息。

 

據說朝鮮軍隊將會派駐庫爾斯克地區幫助俄軍收回失地，但實際情況難於考證。如果將部隊分散分別派駐到不同陣地，實行常規作戰的話朝鮮軍隊缺乏基本訓練，身體素質差，不熟悉新武器裝備，而且對高科技戰爭完全不瞭解，對全新的戰場環境很難儘快適應，因此相對與俄軍士兵來說，朝鮮新兵上戰場根本起不了作用反而徒添傷亡，甚至因為語言不通，連正確執行命令都很困難。最關鍵的還是部隊到底規誰指揮，如果是成建制由朝鮮軍官指揮戰鬥力應該更強，但是朝鮮軍官缺乏俄軍的實戰經驗，直接作戰很可能造成極大傷亡。如果部隊分散到俄軍作戰單位，則無非就是普通新兵而已，況且本次朝鮮派出的部隊不是朝軍主力，而是招募和抽調的一般部隊，經過俄軍短期訓練後就派往戰場。

 

朝鮮多年制裁下軍隊不可能不受到影響，普通部隊每日糧食供應才5百多克，不要說基本軍事訓練就是執行勤務都非常勉強，由於長期國民營養不良，入伍男性身高要求只有1米45，這種素質的兵源首先要做的是補充營養恢復體力，調理身體保持健康，然後才能進行適應性軍事訓練。當然並不懷疑朝鮮軍隊的作戰意志，特別是朝鮮的主力部隊，但畢竟現代戰爭在本次高科技環境下，面對烏克蘭在西方支持下的武器優勢，依賴過往的戰術自然是不合時宜了。雖然目前朝鮮軍隊參戰數量不多，但隨著戰事的需要如果能夠出動10個師十多萬的軍隊，還是能夠在戰場上發揮一定作用。至少在積累一定作戰經驗後可以替換俄軍進行休整體，填充戰線的漏洞，協助完成軍事工程，並且分擔部份作戰任務。

 

現在俄烏兩軍陷入膠著狀態，各方對於兵源補充的要求都很高，因此朝鮮如果能夠大量增兵，對於俄軍來講無論從哪個方面來說都很有利。而且朝鮮軍隊傳統以來就是承襲蘇聯編制，而且近來向俄軍提供大量武器，朝鮮軍隊對於自產武器的運用都很熟悉。朝鮮軍隊的戰鬥力在消耗驚人的俄烏戰場上，面對烏克蘭的優勢武器裝備的打擊也很難發揮出來。但如果朝鮮持續增兵的話，至少可以發揮數量方面的優勢。韓國現在對於朝鮮的出兵反應敏感，為此會向烏克蘭提供武器彈藥並且派出軍事人員，如果韓國部隊參戰則會對俄烏戰爭產生重大影響，如此等於朝韓兩國在烏克蘭戰場正式開戰，發展下去自然會引發朝鮮半島的直接戰爭，最終導致中日美各方都會捲入。

 

朝鮮參戰北約出兵俄烏戰爭惡化，最後發展成世界大戰也再所難免。不過從目前來看朝鮮出兵規模不大數量不多，不是主力部隊完全屬於試探性質，後續大規模出動成建制正規主力部隊成疑。金正恩百萬大軍裝備落後戰鬥力有限，如果大量軍隊在海外被消耗掉，會直接影響其在朝鮮的家族統治。現在有限出兵換取俄國的糧食，能源，軍備，科技和鄰國的經濟利益，然後隨著今後的發展再做調整更符合金正恩的長遠目的。因此對朝鮮軍隊參戰不應該被過度解讀，從現在看完全是金正恩賺取外匯的一種手段而已。

Kim Jong-un sending troops to Ukraine is like a beggar giving Trump gifts and asking Putin for money

DPRK Kim Jong-un sent troops to the war was speculated, the United States said it may change the course of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Ukraine's reaction to this is not too strong, but still want to get more Western aid through the DPRK troops, the United States in fact is not concerned about the DPRK troops, the so-called change the course of the war is in fact the claim is to hope that Kim Jong-un is more involved in the war in Russia and Ukraine, instead of letting the DPRK army display millions of troops on the border all year round with the U.S. and South Korea to confront each other, but also better to send to the Ukrainian battlefield for depletion. In the face of Ukraine's nearly 700,000 square kilometres of land, nearly 200,000 square kilometres of vastness of the war, the two sides of the dogfight position consumption war, even if the DPRK troops 100,000 will not help, in the face of drones, missiles, heavy artillery, tanks, white phosphorus bombs, cluster bombs, aerial strikes, etc., the world's second largest military power cannot do anything about it, let alone the DPRK army of the 580 grams per day of food supply control.

 

Although the DPRK has the world's third largest army of 1.2 million soldiers, only 500,000 of them can be transported to the front line to fight in the war, and they need to undergo all-round training and replenishment. The DPRK also has the world's largest special forces of over 100,000 men, but they may not be much superior to Russian special forces in terms of weaponry, tactical use, combat experience and will to fight, but the reality is that most of the Russian army's experienced special forces have been depleted. DPR troops sent to the environment is not familiar with the foreign battlefield, the face of the western superior weapons of the all-round blow, the two sides of the village by village, settlement by settlement, position by position consumption, the Russian army need to pay the price of more than a thousand people every day, but also can only move forward a few tens of meters of the battle, the DPR army, even if the fighting strength is strong, but also cannot withstand the Ukrainian army's firepower consumption.

 

Special operations to implement small-scale tactical infiltration, secret attacks on specific targets, the implementation of decapitation operations, etc. to have a miraculous effect, if the large-scale formed combat then become a general force, nothing more than equipment, combat effectiveness and will to fight a little stronger. The infiltration of South Korea and the beheading of the president could not be repeated in the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, after all, it is in a completely different war environment. North Korea has already sent troops to the war, but not many, in the future will gradually increase the number of troops, but unless more than 100,000 troops, and centralized use instead of splitting the troops around to help the war, basically will not have a big impact on the war situation. North Korea gets the energy, food and military technology it wants most through Russia, and is thus free from the perennial control of its neighbor’s, and its recent show of assertiveness towards South Korea is just a traditional means of attracting global attention in exchange for economic benefits. 

 

North Korea's attack on South Korea opens up a new theatre of war, and in conjunction with the war in the Middle East forces the West to divert its troops, thus easing the pressure on Russia to go to war. But after all, with Israel's overwhelming military superiority in the Middle East and Russia's stalemate in the war in Ukraine, it is unlikely that North Korea will attack South Korea at the same time it sends troops to Ukraine. If the DPRK sends troops to assist Russia's first condition is to maintain the stability of the peninsula, if the attack on South Korea will not be possible to split the troops in Ukraine. The DPRK army's equipment is seriously backward and most of the equipment is nearly obsolete, the fighting force is limited military capability is insufficient, the soldiers due to lack of food cannot even carry out normal duties, how easy it is to launch a large-scale war. Moreover, the DPRK has been sending its ammunition stockpile to Russia in exchange for economic benefits. Kim Jong-un is now trying his best to train his daughter to take power and move to the front stage, and he will not easily go to war and gamble on the fate of the country to start a direct conflict with the U.S., Japan and South Korea. 

 

The only thing he is doing now is to send a limited number of troops to Russia in exchange for food, energy and military technology. Kim Jong-un calculating the United States election is approaching, old friend Trump is likely to once again stay in the White House, so naturally want to make some things out, as a bargaining chip in dealing with the new U.S. president. The so-called bombing of the main transport route to South Korea is in fact a route that has not been used for decades. By amending the constitution to give up reunification and declare South Korea as an enemy, the status quo of the two countries is now that of an enemy state. Launching a war against South Korea is even more borderline. Since the ammunition and troops have to go to Ukraine, what else to fight with.

朝鮮出兵烏克蘭是叫花子向特朗普獻禮找普京要錢

 

朝鲜金正恩派兵参战被炒作，美国稱有可能改变俄乌战争进程，乌克兰对此反应不算强烈，但仍想通过朝鲜出兵得到更多西方援助，美国其实對朝鲜出兵并不关注，所谓改变战争进程的说法其实是希望金正恩更多参与到俄乌战争中去，与其讓朝鲜军队在边境陈兵百万常年與美韩对峙，还不如送到乌克兰战场进行消耗。面对乌克兰近70萬平方公里的土地，将近20萬平方公里广袤的战争，双方犬牙交错的阵地消耗战，即便朝鲜出兵10萬也无济于事，面对无人机，导弹，重炮，坦克装甲，白磷弹，集束炸弹，空中打击等等，世界军事第二强国也无能为力，更何况是每天粮食供应控制在580克的朝鲜军队。

 

虽然朝鲜拥有全世界排名第三的120萬军队，但是真正能够运送到前线打仗的也就50萬，并且還需要经过全方位的整训和补充。朝鲜还有全世界最大规模的特种部队超过10萬人，但无论在武器装备，战术运用，实战经验和战斗意志等各方面，也未必比俄罗斯特种兵高处多少，但现实情况是俄军的大部份有经验的特种兵都已经消耗殆尽了。朝鲜部队送到环境不熟悉的外国战场，面对西方优势武器的全方位打击，双方逐村逐定居点逐阵地的消耗，俄军都需要付出每天超过千人的代价，也只能向前挪动几十米的战斗，朝鲜军队即便战斗力再強，也抵挡不住乌克兰军队的火力消耗。

 

特种作战实行小规模的战术渗透，奇袭特定目标，实施斩首行动等才有奇效，如果大规模成建制作战則成为一般部队，无非就是装备，战斗力和作战意志更強一些。当年渗透韩国斩首总统的行动不可能在俄乌战场重现，毕竟是在完全不同的战争环境下。目前朝鲜已经派兵参战但是兵力不多，相信今后还会逐步增兵，但除非出动超过10萬人以上的部队，并且集中使用而非四处分兵助战，基本上對战局不会有太大影响。朝鲜通过俄罗斯得到了最想要的能源，粮食和军事科技，并且因此可以摆脱邻国常年控制，最近對韩国展示的强硬态度，不过是吸引全球关注换取经济利益的传统手段而已。

 

朝鲜攻击韩国开辟新战场，配合中东战事迫使西方分兵，从而缓解俄国战争压力。但毕竟在以色列在中东军事上占压倒性优势，俄罗斯在乌克兰战争陷入僵局，朝鲜不可能在出兵乌克兰的同时进攻韩国。如果朝鲜出兵援助俄罗斯首要条件就是维持半岛的稳定，如果进攻韩国就不可能分兵乌克兰。朝鲜军队的装备严重落后多数近乎淘汰，战斗力有限军事能力不足，士兵因缺粮連正常的勤务都执行不了，发动大规模战争谈何容易。况且现在還將弹药库存不断输送俄罗斯换取经济利益。金正恩目前正在竭力培养女儿掌权走向前台，断不会轻易开战赌国运和美日韩发动直接冲突。

 

现在无非就是出动有限的兵力，向俄罗斯换取粮食能源和军事技术而已。金正恩精于算计美国大选在即，老友特朗普很可能再次入住白宫，因此自然要搞些事情出来，作为與美国新总统打交道的筹码。所谓炸毁了通往韩国的交通要道，其实这条路几十年來都未使用過。修宪放弃统一宣布與韩国为敌，现在两国的现状就是敌国。发动對韩战争更是不着边际，既然弹药和部队都要到乌克兰去，還拿什麼打仗。

朝鮮出兵烏克蘭金三胖否認大叔普京子彈還沒付錢

 

南韓國防部官員稱已經發現數名朝鮮士兵在烏克蘭前線戰死，估計朝鮮很快將派出地面部隊參戰。朝鮮和俄國是二戰後多年的盟友，而且近期又明確了戰略夥伴關係，朝鮮已經向俄羅斯提供大量武器彈藥，直接派兵據稱早已經提上日程，計畫先出動幾個師數萬部隊，以工程兵的名義幫助俄軍構築工事，填補戰線空缺然後直接作戰。俄羅斯目前已經傷亡超過60萬部隊，而且部隊裝備彈藥損耗嚴重，國內的各項軍事戰略設施不斷遭到烏軍無人機轟炸，最重要的還是前線缺乏部隊兵力不足，並且大量部隊由於長期作戰極度疲勞，無法進行修整導致戰鬥力大幅下降。

 

現在俄烏戰爭東南部地區已經發展成為陣地絞殺戰，作戰手段主要是步兵進攻，配合炮火無人機和地面裝甲下的中小規模地面作戰，這種戰法很難取得大規模的進展，但各方面消耗巨大特別是兵員。因此，朝鮮如能出兵也是再正常不過，但是現在這種陣地絞殺戰即便是投入再多兵力，除了造成雙方的更多傷亡外，也不可能取得更大的進展，特別是烏軍有軍備優勢，只要彈藥充足就可以抵消對方的優勢兵力。如果朝鮮出兵整體的規模有多大，可以持續多少時間。如果只是出動10個師以下的部隊，除非集中兵力攻擊大城市，否則分散在各個戰場根本就顯現不出來，因為雙方僵持有十幾萬平方公立的土地。

 

如果集中兵力攻擊則必然遭到對方優勢火力的打擊遭受重大損失，而且朝鮮在他國進行大規模軍事行動，勢必導致聯合國和北約的強烈幹預，況且現在的戰爭集中兵力發動人海戰術，遭受到的傷亡是難以想像的，即便是俄國也難以維繼續。現在無非是俄軍利用人數優勢，勉強保住戰線控制陣地形成對峙，應付烏東南戰線已經非常勉強，根本抽調不出來更多兵力去應付第二戰場。況且如果朝鮮出動的兵力有限，面對巴赫穆特和阿夫迪夫卡等的消耗戰，即便是10萬部隊又能維持多久，普裡格金瓦格納戰鬥力強都在短時間內被消耗掉數萬部隊，還不包俄軍的損失更何況朝鮮軍隊。

 

雖然不懷疑朝鮮軍隊的戰鬥意志和軍事技術，但即便是主力正規部隊在海外作戰，而且是面對殘酷的陣地攻堅戰，而且是在不熟悉的高科技戰爭環境下。即便朝鮮部隊在本土作戰或許戰鬥強大，但是到了環境截然不同的海外，在對方強大的火力壓制下俄軍都盡顯頹勢，更何況數十年沒有經歷實戰，平時因為糧食問題連執行勤務都勉強，訓練和裝備都極其缺乏的朝鮮軍隊。再者朝鮮如果出兵時間將會持續多長時間，戰爭已經進行了近3年，雙方投入近百萬部隊造成嚴重傷亡，俄軍傷亡60萬烏軍最少也有20多萬，現在俄軍發動較大規模的進攻，平均每天的傷亡在1個團千人左右，一個月就要消耗2個師，即便是10萬部隊真開打也不過能撐3-4個月，後續如果不補充兵力則難以應付，一般部隊傷亡20%已經失去戰鬥力，朝鮮如果想全面參與則需要做好長期戰爭的準備。

 

雖然朝鮮有超過1百萬部隊，但是陸軍能夠派到前線也就是20萬左右，況且還要應付近在咫尺的美韓軍隊，一旦主力部隊在烏克蘭被消耗掉則難以短期內補充。朝鮮庫存彈藥源源不斷提供俄羅斯，但按照目前戰爭驚人的彈藥消耗速度，持續不了多久也會供應不足，如果部隊再被打掉無法補充，恐怕會影響到金三胖的內部統治。這就是不久前朝鮮為了換取政經軍事科技等的利益，向俄羅斯提供大批軍備彈藥的原因，但是面對當時朝鮮將直接出兵的傳言，金正恩卻矢口否認的原因。再從朝鮮提供給俄國的武器彈藥來看，所謂的武器都是淘汰的裝備，根本談不上任何先進性，彈藥也是在朝韓邊境積存多年，不輸出也需要銷毀的庫存品。這些彈藥不但質量和性能很差，甚至生產時連最基本的標準裝藥都不能保證，經常發生炸膛，無法激發和彈藥失效等事故，長期保存方面連維持恒溫恒濕，保持彈藥放置在通風干爽的環境都做不到。

朝鮮出兵的可能性是有的，而且現在已經有軍隊在當地參戰，但是數量和規模不會很大，也未必會直接到最前線作戰。金正恩支持俄羅斯的原因更多是政經利益的考量，真正要出動全部家底支持俄羅斯對抗北約到底，金正恩能力有限而且根本沒有足夠的軍事實力。對於三胖最重要的是維護金氏家族的對朝鮮的永久統治，俄國不拿能源，糧食，軍事科技，外匯等硬通貨做交換，朝鮮的武器彈藥根本不可能長期提供，至於和普京大叔的革命友誼，完全是不值得一提的次要問題。

Trump's second assassination switched from a American rifle to Russian AK but next time it will go for an RPG

 

The expected second assassination of Donald Trump happened soon enough, but this time the shooter was arrested after firing randomly a few bullets in a hurry , but anyway this assassination is still a bit of an improvement over the last time when a young man shot with a small-calibre rifle. 

Firstly, the shooter had been lurking around the golf course for more than 12 hours and was not discovered by the secret service when he opened fire, which means that there was no problem with the planning, but it was not successful due to technical reasons; Secondly, the choice of using the AK47 was due to the more powerful firepower and the large area of killings in close range sweeping shots, but the problem is that the AK has poor accuracy, and it is impossible to aim at a medium to long distance and difficult to hit the target under the protection; Lastly, after the assassination failed, the gunman still had a chance to escape if he could have made more preparations.

 

From the whole assassination process, the AK47 was chosen because the shooter's shooting ability was poor, the person's military quality was amateurish, and the whole assassination plan was not fully well planned and implemented. The media said that the Democrats wanted to assassinate Trump, if this is really the case, a professional gunman with a sniper rifle, lurking in the golf course, grass and trees to cover the environment, can kill the target with just one or two shots and safely withdrawn. Unlike the current shooter who just fire randomly. 

The killer was dissatisfied with Trump's attempt to stop the Russian-Ukrainian war immediately. Trump's previous offer was only to let Ukraine accept the status and both sides stop the war first and then negotiate, the real purpose is to buy time for Vladimir Putin. The United States can force Ukraine to stop the war by many means, even if it is to stop the supply of weapons, ammunition and intelligence, it will seriously affect the progress of the war, rely entirely on Europe to fight against the Russian is very difficult, and Trump will certainly do some special operations against Zelensky. If Ukraine loses the leader, it will undoubtedly be detrimental to the long-term resistance against Russia.

 

This three-year war is entirely led by the US-led NATO, otherwise Ukraine would not be able to hold out for even two weeks. Even if a truce were forced on all sides, negotiations would be impossible, and there would be no reciprocal bargaining chips. Trump is determined to stop the war and help Russia because Putin has evidence of his ‘Russiagate’, and if it is released the consequences are unimaginable, so he has to keep Putin, at least keep his internal political power. From the current war situation, although the two sides stalemate, but Russia will surely lose under long-term attrition. 

So Trump must immediately help Putin pass through the difficult times,  so that Putin can take a breather to re-adjust the military deployment, replenish of troops, strengthen the logistics and weapons importations, and once again to regain the advantage of the battlefield. Objectively speaking, the war has developed to this stage, Trump underestimated the confidence of Ukraine troops and Europe's determination, even if he can interrupt the war in his four years time, but then the war will still continue.

  

Once the war machine is started, the NATO mechanism has already been restarted, and anyone who tries to stop it by himself will be crushed. The premise of the so-called ‘America is great again’ is not to acquiesce to Russia's military expansion in Europe, which would become ‘Russia is strong again’ and ‘the great renaissance of the Russian nation’. The United States has become an accomplice of Russia. Whether over 4,000 US military-industrial corporations are now producing at full capacity and receiving new orders nearly every day would like to see the war, which has been going on for three years, suddenly come to a halt. Would the big businessmen, companies and financiers, fuelled by the huge economic benefits of post-war reconstruction, want the war to stop? 

The second assassination was entirely personal, and it was made clearly that only for the Russian-Ukrainian war. This is the ultimate warning to Trump that the small calibre rifle has been replaced with a strong AK this time and the next time a professional sniper rifle will be used, or just settle for a more powerful Russian RPG.

 

第二次暗殺特朗普步槍改成了AK47下次直接用RPG轟

 

預料之中的特朗普第二次被暗殺果然很快出現，但是這次刺殺在倉促打出幾發子彈後，槍手就被發現匆忙撤退後遭逮捕，但無論怎麼說這次暗殺還算是有點進步，比上次年輕人用小口徑步槍亂射要好。首先，槍手在高爾夫球場附近進行了超過12小時的潛伏，並且在開槍時特勤人員並未發現，就是說這次策劃沒有問題，但是因為技術原因沒有成功；其次，選擇使用AK47步槍是因為火力較猛，近距離掃射殺傷面積大，但問題是AK射擊精度差，中遠距離則根本無法瞄準，現場有特勤人員的護衛下很難打中；最後是暗殺失敗後，槍手是成功撤離現場後被抓的，因此槍手如能事先準備妥當，仍有成功逃脫的機會。

 

從整個暗殺過程看選擇AK47是因為槍手射擊能力差，此人的軍事素質業餘，整個暗殺計畫策劃不周密，實行起來也不到位。有媒體稱是民主黨想刺殺特朗普，如果真是如此專業槍手用狙擊槍，潛伏在高爾夫球場，草木掩護的環境下，只要一兩槍就能斃命還能安全撤離。不似現在業餘槍手亂射一氣，估計也沒想擊斃對方的意思，只是亂開槍發洩能夠打中最好。槍手是對特朗普要立刻阻止俄烏戰爭有所不滿。特朗普之前開出的條件無非是讓烏克蘭接受現狀，前提是雙方先停戰後談判，真實目的是為普京爭取時間。美國強迫烏克蘭停戰的手段很多，即便是停止供應武器彈藥情報，就會嚴重影響到戰爭的進程，完全依賴歐洲對抗俄羅斯壓力很大，況且特朗普必定會暗中做梗。再則就是對澤連斯基採取特別軍事行動，烏克蘭如果失去領袖無疑對長期抗俄不利。

 

這場耗時三年的戰爭完全是以美國為首的北約所主導，否則烏克蘭連2個星期都堅持不下去。即便硬性迫使各方停戰談判也不可能進行，而且相互之間根本沒有對等的籌碼。特朗普一意停戰幫助普京是因為對方掌握他當年“通俄門”的證據，如果公佈出來後果不堪設想，因此他必須保住普京，至少是讓他能夠保住政權。從現在的戰局看雖然雙方僵持但互有攻勢，長期消耗下去俄國必敗。所以特朗普必須立刻出手幫助普京渡過難關，至少也要通過停戰爭取時間，讓普京喘息後重新調整軍事部署，補充兵力，加強後勤和引進武器，再次奪回戰場優勢。客觀上說戰爭發展到現在，不是靠特朗普的個人能力就能阻止戰爭，他低估了烏克蘭的信心和歐洲的決心，即便是在他任期4年內能夠中斷戰爭，但之後戰爭仍將繼續。

 

戰爭機器一旦開動，北約機制已經重啟，任何想憑藉一己之力，停止機器運轉的人都將會被碾碎。所謂“美國再次強大”的前提難道是默認俄羅斯在歐洲的武力擴張，如此則成了“俄國再次強大”即“俄羅斯民族的偉大復興”。美國則成了俄國的帮兇，特朗普太過愚蠢，難道現在美國4千多家每天開足馬力生產，訂單接到手軟的美國軍工企業會希望，持續了3年的戰爭突然停下來？難道在戰後重建的巨大經濟利益刺激下，大商家和金融大佬會希望戰爭暫停？第二次暗殺完全是個人行為，而且開宗明義告知暗殺是為了俄烏戰爭。這是對特朗普的終極警告，小口徑步槍已經換成了AK，下次使用的將是一把專業的狙擊槍，或者直接用俄羅斯RPG解決算了。

Trump calls black Harris an idiot she responds you can't live 4 more years

 

Trump is going to have a TV debate with Harris and he is going to use the tactic of attacking and swearing at Harris, focusing on her incompetence and ignorance, Harris has very little to counter Trump's tactics because she really doesn't have a clue about international politics and diplomacy, and she is only a presidential candidate because Biden is too old, and the US has already had its turn for a woman to be president. The order of presidents in the US is that a white president is replaced by a black one, then a woman, a minority, and finally a transgender. The only strategy Harris might be able to use is that she, might be able to seize on the loopholes in Trump's attacks to challenge them, and could prepare something against Trump in advance to strike first.

Until now, it was not clear who would win the election, even if Trump had a slight advantage after the shooting. He attacked Biden for being old and incompetent now that he himself is old, and Harris for being so clueless that Trump might not have been as good as her when he was first elected. Even if he returns to the White House it would only be for 4 years and it is impossible to change America and the world in such a short period of time. The US has not become stronger in his 4 years in office, the trade wars have led to ‘epidemic war’ and the world has become more chaotic and fragmented. For himself, he has to get elected, or else the lawsuits will bring him down sooner or later, and even if he is elected, whether he can avoid the next assassination will depend on luck. The American electoral system is very outdated, and the assassination of the President is an American tradition. There is no telling how many hidden forces will want him dead.

He will definitely intervene in the Russian-Ukrainian war after coming to power. Recently, it is said that Ukraine hides the casualties, and also wants to pursue the responsibility for the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. The Russian-Ukrainian war has made more than 4,000 arms dealers in the United States earn a lot of money, and the military enterprises of European countries and even the NATO allies have been placing orders continuously, and they have been expanding their production capacity and working overtime to manufacture arms. The war has already intervened in the critical point, once the war stops, it means that the world arms trade has plummeted, not to mention that if Russia really disintegrates, how much economic interests are involved in the post-war reconstruction, and how easy is it for Trump to end the war with just a word.

 

The leftist media in the United States, such as the <New York Times>, <The Associated Press>, CNN, the <Wall Street Times>, etc., are not going to let Trump off the hook, as he has been under attack ever since he was elected. Will the drug cartels let him off the hook for the huge price cuts he's forced them to make? Will the US and Middle East oil consortiums let him off the hook when the price of oil plummeted due to the liberalization of domestic oil extraction and exports? The Wall Street financial oligarchs and US conglomerates, in response to Trump's trade wars, have been in constant conflict with their ‘biggest competitor’, which has been making huge profits over the past few decades of collusion. Through globalization, US conglomerates have made huge profits from the huge markets of "their competitors". Will Donald Trump be let off the hook when he comes to power to start a bigger trade war that will ultimately lead to loss of profits?

 

Since the end of the Cold War, it has been the policy of the United States to export capital and make profits through globalization, and the Democratic Party has been the promoter of this strategy, so naturally, it will not let Trump sabotage this process with his unilateralism. The US domestic bureaucracy will not let Trump off the hook either, as the number of backroom deals with bureaucratic interests will be affected by the reduction of the approval period for infrastructure construction from 10 years to one. Building a wall at the border to keep out illegal immigrants also stops the drug trade through the border, and since smuggling immigrants illegally into the country has been a traditional business, would the big drug dealers and human smuggling groups in North America let Trump off the hook? The US health insurance system is chaotic, with a complex mix of unreasonable medical fees and insurance, and high drug prices that are unaffordable to the average person, and Trump has suppressed the prices of commonly used drugs by executive order, so will the pharmaceutical and insurance companies let him off the hook?

Trump is just a second-generation rich crappy businessman, his idea of changing the world by himself is stupid, the slogan of America is strong again, just like his good friend Vladimir Putin's ‘Give me 20 years, and I will give you a strong Russia’, is impossible to accomplish without being practical. The United States has never been in decline. Globalization was started by the United States and has been a fundamental policy since the Cold War. Forty years of globalization have brought relative peace to the world, and this relative stability should be stabilized, not undermined. As a businessman, Trump has fulfilled his historical mission, and even if he gets another term, if he had his own way, he wouldn't survive another 4 years surely.

特朗普罵哈里斯黑女人是白癡她笑你活4年都不可能

 

特朗普將與哈裡斯展開電視辯論，他必定採用攻擊謾駡的策略，重點攻擊哈裡斯的無能和無知，哈裡斯能夠反駁特朗普的策略不多，因為她的確對國際政治外交等各方面都一無所知，之所以能夠成為總統候選人是因為拜登太老，而美國已經輪到一個女性當總統。美國總統的次序是白人總統的取代者是黑人，然後是女人，少數族裔，最後才是變性人。對於哈裡斯來講可能唯一能夠運用的策略是她作為檢察官，可能會抓住特朗普攻擊內容的漏洞進行質疑，而且可以事先準備一些針對特朗普的內容先發制人。

 

直到現在還不能清楚判斷誰能夠最後勝選，即便特朗普被槍擊後形勢稍站優勢。他攻擊拜登老邁無能現在他自己成了年長者，至於哈裡斯的一無所知，特朗普最初當選時可能還不如她。即便他重回白宮也只有4年時間，如此短的時間內想改變美國和全世界都沒有可能。美國在他執政的4年中並沒有變得更強大，貿易戰最後導致了“疫情戰”的發生，世界局勢變得更加混亂破碎。對於他自己來說必須爭取當選，否則大量的官司遲早將他拖垮，而且即便當選是否能躲過下一次暗殺也要靠運氣。美國競選制度本來就非常落後，總統被刺殺也美國傳統。不知道有多少暗藏勢力想要他的命，即便最後能夠順利完成任期，還是會被人間消失。

 

他上臺後必定會幹預俄烏戰爭，最近稱烏克蘭隱瞞了傷亡人數，並且還要對阿富汗撤軍追責，俄烏戰爭開打使得美國超過4千個軍火商大賺其錢，而且歐洲各國甚至北約盟友的軍工企業都是訂單不斷，不斷擴充產能加班生產軍火，這場進行了近3年的戰爭正進入關鍵階段，俄國戰爭能源被消耗已經介入臨界點，戰爭一旦停止意味著世界軍火貿易大跌，何況俄國如果真的解體，戰後重建又牽涉到多少經濟利益，特朗普想憑一句話就結束戰爭談何容易。

 

美國的左派媒體《紐約時報》，《美聯社》，《CNN》，《華爾街時報》等等，難道會放過特朗普，從他當選以來就一直備受攻擊。醫藥集團受到他的打壓被迫大幅下降藥價難道會放過？開放本土石油開採出口導致油價大幅下滑，美國和中東的石油財團會放過他？華爾街金融寡頭和美國大企業財團，對於特朗普發動的貿易戰，導致美國和“最大競爭對手”之間衝突不斷，過往幾十年的勾兌，華爾街賺取了巨額利潤。美國大企業財團通過全球化從競爭對手的龐大市場中賺取大量利潤。特朗普上臺再次發動更大規模貿易戰，最後導致利潤損失下會放過他？

 

冷戰結束後通過全球化輸出資本賺取利潤是美國的國策，民主黨就是這一策略的宣導者，自然不會放任特朗普進行單邊主義破壞這一進程。美國本土的官僚體系也不會放過特朗普，將基礎設施建設的審批期限從10年下降到1年，多少官僚利益集團的暗中交易會因此受到影響。在邊境建牆阻隔非法移民進入，如此也阻止了通過邊境進行的毒品貿易，況且走私移民非法入境本來就是傳統生意，北美的大毒梟和人蛇走私集團難道會放過特朗普？美國的醫療保險體系混亂，各項不合理醫藥收費和保險錯綜複雜，藥價高昂常人難以負擔，特朗普通過行政命令壓制常用藥價格，醫藥和保險集團難道會放過他？他通過發動貿易戰打壓與美國合作多年的所謂“競爭對手”，搞切割導致美國眾多商業貿易企業團體“熊貓派”，喪失幾十年來從對手中勾兌得到的傳統利潤，難道會放過他？

 

特朗普只是一個富二代蹩腳商人，他想通過一己之力改變世界的想法愚蠢而幼稚，美國再次強大的口號，正如他好友普京“給我二十年，還你一個強大的俄羅斯”一樣，不且實際根本不可能完成。美國從來就沒有衰敗，全球化的始作俑者就是美國，而且是冷戰後的基本國策。全球化的四十年給世界帶來了相對和平，此種相對的穩定局勢應該被穩固而不是破壞。特朗普做為一個商人已經完成了他的歷史使命，即便再得到一個任期如果一意孤行，能夠多活4年都不可能。

普總現在又是下跪又是亲吻古蘭經就差上吊了

 

烏克蘭攻入庫爾斯克後如入無人之境，當地本就兵力不多而且烏軍出其不意，導致俄軍反應不及，現在有十幾個旅的烏軍主力部隊配合地面裝甲和空中掩護，已經佔領了1千多平方公里的土地，並且還在不斷擴展中。期待已久的夏季攻勢正式開始，之前俄羅斯2萬多軍隊展開對哈爾科夫的攻勢是虛張聲勢，現在烏軍的反攻才是真正拉開序幕。在政治上來說攻入庫爾斯克對普京來說壓力很大，入侵別國的俄羅斯居然反被入侵了，而且庫爾斯克在二戰時就是以德俄坦克大戰，最終以蘇聯戰勝而聞名，現在被烏克蘭的坦克裝甲車碾壓，普京在政治上難於給國民做交待，在國際上烏克蘭攻入庫爾斯克給盟友增強了信心。

 

在軍事上所謂新戰場導致俄羅斯騎虎難下，如果從烏東烏南戰爭抽調大量主力北上清繳，導致戰場出現空隙會引發烏克蘭反攻，現在靠堆積大量兵力火力，犬牙交錯密不透風的陣地對峙戰，一旦有主力部隊成建制撤走，不但會減輕對方的壓力而且會被反擊。如果不從正面戰場抽調主力，僅靠東拼西湊的地方部隊根本抵擋不了烏克蘭的攻勢，現在的辦法只能是從各戰區分別抽調個別主力回援，甚至要從飛地加里寧格勒的部隊中抽調2個師，從當地到庫爾斯克最少有1千5百多公里，即便部隊經過長途跋涉到達後修整也需要時間。烏克蘭突入當地除了開闢新戰場外，另一個重要目的就是圍點打援，通過打擊俄羅斯援軍來消耗俄軍的有生力量，畢竟無論在情報偵查，武器裝備，空中掩護等方面烏軍都有一定優勢，而且對本次作戰已經準備許久，現在俄軍增援部隊都受到了打擊。烏軍只要控制住E38公路俄軍很難進入。反擊部隊集結不起來俄軍就不能展開反攻，況且烏軍已經在當地建造工事打算長期駐守，並且庫爾斯克臨近烏克蘭邊境後勤不成問題。

 

烏軍現在兵分三路，左路控制俄羅斯輸往歐洲的天然氣設施，右路控制核電設備和電廠，中路突進擴大戰果。況且此地距離莫斯科也不過4百多公里，裝甲部隊2天就能到，戰鬥機可以立刻到達，因此整體形勢對俄羅斯不利，而且烏軍已經對其他數州展開騷擾，況且澤連斯基始終關注的還是克裡米亞。現在對於普京來講很不利，他最近連續到了車臣，南奧塞梯，亞塞拜然等地做秀，又是親吻古蘭經又是到戰爭遇難者墓地下跪，然後給最大盟友施壓要求派兵增援并且再多給錢。朝鮮和波斯能給些裝備就不錯了，真能救命的就靠最大鄰國了。據說世界第二經濟體已經派出18000人的部隊，以紅十字會的名義出兵參戰，但即便以志願軍的名義也不可能立刻派到最前線直接參加戰鬥，最多是填補一下戰線空缺便於俄軍調動部隊。大規模出動軍隊抗美援俄目前根本不可能，如果被西方嚴厲制裁整個國民經濟將會崩潰導致內亂。

 

況且真如同當年百萬部隊裝備完成，開進到遠東地區然後轉到烏東南作戰，部隊一旦武裝起來進行調動，很難保證軍隊不發生倒戈和嘩變，並且成為推翻政權的反對力量。況且軍隊承平日久貪腐嚴重戰鬥力有限，真到戰場作戰戰敗的可能性非常之大，況且即便能夠部份扭轉局面，但整體上俄羅斯被長期消耗後衰亡的大局不會改變。正式出兵也會導致北約如法炮製，北約幾十個成員國加上國際上的盟友都會參戰，如果就會發展成為世界大戰，而且俄羅斯最大盟友的本土也會遭到攻擊，該國最高層對軍隊的控制本就有限，最終發展到內外受壓恐怕就真難以為繼了。

Ukrainian raids Kursk, Putin is confused about who invaded whom now

 

Ukraine has suddenly invaded Russia's Kursk Region and has broken through dozens of kilometers of defenses and is now starting to build fortifications. The long-disturbed Ukrainian summer offensive has officially begun, but in an unexpected way. It would not be an exaggeration to call this attack an invasion, as the Kursk region was famous for the Soviet-German tank battles of World War II, and it is politically unfavorable for Russia to invade a country that has been invading Ukraine for more than two years, but is now being invaded by the enemy instead. 

For the United States, even if Trump came to power to force Ukraine to peace talks, if you can hold on to Kursk, undoubtedly the future of an additional bargaining chip. From a military point of view the so-called surprise attack emphasizes the strength of the attack, the speed and suddenness, and does not require too many personnel, if the gap is opened smoothly, you can then according to the specific circumstances to strengthen the personnel and equipment is not a problem, and the fact that the Ukrainian army is also so operated, and now there are already more troops into the war.

  

The Chechen troops that were defending the area only made a token stand and then retreated, and the new recruits that were stationed there, who were not capable of fighting, surrendered. Therefore, the suddenness of this offensive achieved unexpected results, and several hundred square kilometers of land were captured in a very short period of time. There are nuclear facilities and power plants, as well as a natural gas pipeline hub to Europe, which would be very favorable to the Ukrainian army if they took control of the area. Russia did not expect the Ukrainian army to take the initiative to attack its own territory. It would take at least 1-2 weeks for troops to be sent back from the Northern Military District and the front, but now tens of thousands of troops have been mobilized from all over the country and are on their way to Kursk in a hurry. The Ukrainians are building fortifications and deploying more troops, as well as ground armor, rockets, anti-aircraft missiles, and drones, so the siege is a certainty. 

The Russian army is now reinforced by civilian vehicles from the road, not even tanks and armored vehicles and heavy equipment, short-term expulsion of the Ukrainian army is likely to have a certain degree of difficulty. At least a few main divisions and armaments from the front line would be needed to cope with this sneak attack, but this would lead to a break in the battle line. Although the Russians have a numerical advantage in fighting a battle of attrition in the front line, it would be difficult for the Ukrainians to gain an advantage, and it would be detrimental to the Russians to move from a battle of positions to a battle of movement.

  

Kursk is only 500 kilometers away from Moscow, it doesn't take too long to use road armor to advance, and it took Prigogine only a few days to force Moscow. Although the Ukrainian army doesn't have any sign of hitting Moscow yet, it is inevitable that they will force the Russians to divide their forces through the war of movement by opening up a new battlefield. The Ukrainian army's main target is still Crimea, and it can launch an attack at any time. Kursk can be attacked both in and out, and if the Russians split their forces, they can attack Crimea, and the air defense facilities there have basically been cleared, the Black Sea fleet has been withdrawn, and the air bases have been cleared, so as long as they cut off the land and sea traffic, they will be able to achieve their goal. 

It is now up to the Ukrainian army to take the next step. The summer offensive into Kursk is not only a surprise, but also puts a lot of pressure on the Russian army. If the Russians slow down, the Ukrainians will expand their attack area, and if they try to divert their troops to help them, it will relieve the pressure on the eastern part of the country. If they keep sending a limited number of troops to rescue them, they will be gradually eliminated by the Ukrainians.

  

The political pressure on Vladimir Putin is also very great now, as Ukraine's successful sneak attack will open up other new wars, and the Russian army, with its own armament depletion, is basically unable to do anything about Ukraine's equipment advantage, and is not capable of effectively coping with it at all. And Ukraine is gradually gaining air superiority, so for the reinforcement of Kursk is more difficult, the face of the Ukrainian army equipped with Seamaster, F-16, drones, ground armor and other advanced equipment, how to rescue Kursk is a big problem, Putin KGB origin will not be unaware of the Kasimov claimed to have solved the Ukrainian army's lies. But how to deal with the invasion of Russia is indeed a new problem for Putin.

 

烏軍入侵俄國庫爾斯克打起霍家迷蹤拳普京問到底誰侵略誰

 

烏克蘭突然攻入俄羅斯庫爾斯克州，並且突破了幾十公里防線，現在開始修建防禦工事。一直擾攘多時的烏克蘭夏季攻勢正式開始，只是以一種出人意料的方式進行。本次攻擊稱之為侵略也不過份，庫爾斯克州在二戰中曾經以蘇德兩國的坦克大戰而聞名，對於俄羅斯來講在政治上對普京不利，入侵烏克蘭2年多的國家，現在反而被敵方入侵了。對於美國即便特朗普上臺逼迫烏克蘭和談，如果能夠堅守住庫爾斯克，無疑是將來多了一個談判籌碼。從軍事角度看此次突擊雖然有多個番號的烏軍旅出現，但人數不多1個半團1千多人，裝備有坦克裝甲車火箭炮和無人機等，所謂突襲強調攻擊力度，速度和突發性，並不需要太多的人員，如果順利打開缺口，可以再按照具體情況加強人員和裝備也沒問題，而事實上烏軍也是如此操作，現在已經有更多部隊投入戰爭。

 

原本防守的車臣部隊只是象徵性抵擋一下就撤退，而駐守當地的是沒有戰鬥力的新兵部隊也順勢投降了，因此本次進攻由於突然性取得了意想不到的戰果，極短時間內佔領了幾百平方公里的土地。該地有研發核武的機構和核電廠，還有通往歐洲的天然氣管道樞紐，烏軍如果控制後會非常有利。對於俄羅斯來講沒有料到烏克蘭會主動攻擊本土，從北方軍區和前方抽調部隊回援，至少需要1-2周的時間，現在從各處調集了1個師上萬人的部隊，正在緊急開赴庫爾斯克。烏克蘭正在當地修建防禦工事並且增調部隊，而且地面裝甲，火箭炮，防空導彈和無人機等一應俱全，所謂圍點打援是肯定的。而俄軍現在從公路乘坐民用車輛增援，甚至沒有坦克裝甲車和重裝備，短期內驅逐烏軍恐怕有一定難度。至少需要從前線抽調幾個主力師和軍備，才能應付本次對方的偷襲，但如此會導致戰線斷裂。俄軍雖然有人員數量優勢，在前線打陣地消耗戰，烏克蘭難以取得優勢，現在如果大幅調動兵力，從陣地戰打成運動戰則對俄軍不利。

 

庫爾斯克距離莫斯科也就5百公里的路程，利用公路裝甲突進也不需要太長時間，普裡戈金當時只用了幾天時間就能夠威逼莫斯科，雖然烏軍從目前看還沒有打到莫斯科的跡象，但是通過運動戰開闢新戰場逼迫俄軍分兵是必然的。烏軍的重點目標仍然是克裡米亞，而且可以隨時發動攻擊。打擊庫爾斯克可進可退，如果俄軍分兵則可以攻擊克裡米亞，而且當地的防空設施基本被清除，黑海艦隊撤離，空軍基地也被清空，只要切斷海陸交通就能夠達到目的。現在就看烏軍的下一步行動，夏季攻勢聲東擊西攻入庫爾斯克不但出其不意，而且對俄軍造成很大壓力。如果俄軍行動緩慢則烏軍會擴大攻擊範圍，如果大力分兵救援則會緩解烏東戰場壓力。如果採取添油戰術不斷派數量有限的部隊救援，則會被烏克蘭圍點打援逐步消滅。

 

現在對於普京的政治壓力也很大，烏克蘭偷襲得手還會開闢其他新戰爭，而且俄軍隨著己方的軍備消耗，對於烏軍的裝備優勢基本上毫無辦法，根本沒有能力有效應付。而且烏克蘭正在逐步取得空優，如此對於增援庫爾斯克難度更大，面對裝備海馬斯，F-16，無人機，地面裝甲等先進軍備的烏克蘭軍隊，如何救援庫爾斯克是個大問題，恐怕普京克克勃出身不會不清楚，克拉西莫夫稱已解決烏軍的謊言。不過如何處理俄羅斯被入侵，對於普京來講的確是個新問題。