Trump’s Tariff Tangle: Secretly Playing Timekeeper for Putin’s Playbook

 

The purpose of Trump initiating a global tariff war is to alleviate pressure on Putin, shifting international focus away from Russia. This would pave the way for lifting all sanctions suppressing Russia. From a 24-hour ceasefire to the scramble for Ukraine’s mineral resources, to the disputes between the White House and Zelenskyy, the Russia-Ukraine war has reached a delicate stage. The war has paused, but neither side wants to stop fighting.

The distance from Moscow to Kyiv is only 200 kilometers—a three-hour drive on the highway—yet the war has dragged on for three years without reaching Kyiv. Although NATO has dissolved and the U.S. has withdrawn, Europe’s economic and military aid to Ukraine has not decreased. Under the pretext of peacekeeping, Europe could even send troops directly into Ukraine. The war has transformed Ukraine into Europe’s most powerful military force, with 100 divisions of ground troops, exhausting Russia—the world’s second military power—for three years, causing nearly a million casualties and depleting much of the military legacy inherited from the Soviet Union. Trump’s attempt to force a ceasefire through personal will is not accepted by all parties. The so-called “land for peace” lacks basic conditions, and Russia, with no military advantage, lacks bargaining chips.

Ukraine’s million-strong ground army, combined with Europe’s air forces, could shift the battlefield dynamics and launch a counteroffensive at any time—something Russia can hardly withstand. If a ceasefire is reached, Russia would lose the hard-won stalemate achieved at great cost. Ukraine, backed by Europe, could regroup and resume fighting at any moment. The current “ceasefire” lacks even a written agreement, and the issue of forcing Ukraine to surrender its mineral resources remains unresolved by Trump. Such a coerced, verbal ceasefire is meaningless. Ukraine’s conditions for peace include Russia halting its aggression, returning occupied territories, providing full compensation, and holding war criminals accountable—demands Russia will not accept. Russia’s demands for Ukraine to cede territory, disarm, and stay out of the EU are equally unattainable.

Trump’s term is less than four years. Even if he maintains a ceasefire during his tenure, unresolved issues will likely reignite the conflict later. In reality, no ceasefire exists now. As a supposed former Soviet strategic operative, Trump has leveraged his position as U.S. president to aid Russia, but the results have been minimal. NATO functions without the U.S., and the global tariff war has had limited impact. Both the Russia-Ukraine war and the tariff war have led to intermittent fighting and pauses, with constant adjustments and errors, ultimately resulting in a stalemate. 

Meanwhile, there’s the complicating factor of an antagonistic China. Trump is trying to buy time for Russia, but the war’s outcome does not depend on him. Beyond self-promotion, he lacks the capacity to resolve it.