The US and Israel launched an attack on Iran, publicly stating in advance that it would last four days. However, within just one day, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, along with more than 40 other senior officials and even some of his close relatives, were decapitated and killed in targeted strikes.The United States primarily focused on striking Iranian military facilities, while Israel took responsibility for eliminating key figures. Israel's intelligence penetration has reached a microscopic level: as soon as Iran's highest leader, even when hiding in a heavily protected bunker, shows any sign of appearing, he can be immediately assassinated.
The so-called multi-day negotiations beforehand were nothing more than a tactic to lure him out into the open.Trump, now approaching eighty years old, launched this targeted elimination of the 86-year-old theocratic leader in order to reverse the declining momentum ahead of the midterm elections. This war between two elderly men was even announced with a specific start time in advance, after which adjustments could be made depending on the situation.Believing there was still a chance if the few days operation persisted, Khamenei naturally came out to rally morale — only to walk straight into the trap. In reality, behind the scenes, people encouraging him to appear were likely influenced by Israeli intelligence agencies.The current so-called "limited" military operation remains confined to airstrikes.
It is almost impossible for the US and Israel to deploy large-scale ground forces for sweeping operations; otherwise, they would not have publicly declared the timeframe of the military strikes in advance.Overall, this is a coordinated effort to support internal chaos in Iran, with the aim of forcing the theocratic regime to collapse as quickly as possible. Iran has been experiencing internal unrest for several years, but large-scale uprisings have only recently erupted, with citizens taking to the streets to protest and attack government buildings. Under international public pressure, the United States felt compelled to respond — especially given that Trump, after courts ruled his tariffs illegal, needed a military strike against Iran to divert domestic attention.He originally had no intention of striking Iran.
The earlier so-called negotiations were merely extreme pressure tactics. The eventual launch of military action involved some occational factors, as well as Israel's unilateral commitment: once the operation began, they would definitely decapitate Khamenei. Now that the objective has been achieved, the current military action is essentially a follow-up to the earlier strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. The only real threat Iran posed to the US and Israel was its nuclear program, which has now been basically eliminated.As for whether the theocratic government can maintain power, the killing of the Supreme Leader has plunged the country into even greater internal chaos.
During the negotiation period, the Iranian government continued to suppress popular uprisings while hoping for support from China and Russia.Russia's Putin is Trump's ally. After already betraying Venezuela's Maduro, he doesn't mind sacrificing one more — Khamenei — in exchange for the US withdrawing military aid to Ukraine, indirectly leading to the dissolution of NATO.China remains a relatively insignificant player in this scenario. Its role is mainly economic — purchasing 90% of Iran's oil and helping sustain the theocratic regime financially. However, in political, military, and diplomatic terms, Iran's dependence on Russia far outweighs its reliance on China. Since Trump took office and adjusted his policy toward Russia, Russian support for Iran has begun to shift. Losing Russia's backing is fatal for Iran. China's assistance is limited to economic blood transfusions, and China's influence in the Middle East has always been mostly rhetorical. While it is undoubtedly an economic powerhouse, it has almost no real presence in international politics.
It is essentially just a tool exploited by Russia and Iran.In the face of US-Israeli bombing, the air defense systems provided by China and Russia proved completely ineffective. Neither China nor Russia offered meaningful support for Iran at the United Nations.In the short term, it is unrealistic for the heir of the Pahlavi dynasty to return and take power. The current international focus is on how the Iranian government and military will react under the theocratic regime.So-called "targeted retaliation" has so far been quite limited — merely dozens of haphazardly launched missiles from neighboring areas. The greatest threat — nuclear weapons — has been neutralized, and the theocratic religious leader has been decapitated.
The next focus is on how the current
Iranian regime will negotiate and compromise with the United States. Bargaining
between the two sides is expected to continue, accompanied by further military
strikes, and this process may last for a considerable period.At present,
military strikes are secondary; political pressure is primary. The Iranian
issue may be resolved more quickly than many expect. Moreover, Trump will not
allow Iran to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, which would cause sustained rises
in oil prices.
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