Trump has finally realized that his strike on Iran was like stepping on his rival’s dog shit

 

The U.S. and Iran have resumed fighting, nullifying the previously signed ceasefire agreement. Ironically, Trump had promised $300 billion in reconstruction aid to Iran to secure the ceasefire, yet the agreement was almost identical to Obama’s earlier deal. In reality, Iran could never smoothly obtain such compensation, since all payments would be U.S.-controlled, even requiring Iran to cede part of its sovereignty. For example, future oil must be extracted by American companies and priced in dollars—something China, Iran’s main backer, would never accept. Iran’s economy is entirely dependent on China, with most oil exports going there. In short, Iran’s current government survives thanks to China, enduring multiple U.S.-Israeli military strikes without collapsing, even forcing Washington to make concessions for a ceasefire.

The Russia-Ukraine war ties down NATO in Europe, while the Iran conflict bogs down the U.S. With these two strategic levers, the West has no capacity to launch trade wars or other major offensives against China. Trump, after a lucky strike in Venezuela, tried to replicate a decapitation operation in Iran, but was dragged into a Gulf war by Israel. Whether America can control the Strait of Hormuz or resolve the Iran issue is doubtful—the conclusion is that it cannot. To truly defeat Iran would require ground troops and full occupation, something the current U.S. administration cannot commit to. Controlling Hormuz demands massive military investment, costly and time-consuming. By contrast, Iran can cheaply disrupt oil tankers with drones, missiles, or mines, and the U.S. cannot fully prevent it.

American strikes on Iranian military targets have had little effect. Tens of thousands of sites were hit at the start, many officials killed, yet the government remains intact and local militias unaffected. Trump even declared there were no valuable targets left, claiming Iran’s navy and air force destroyed. Yet Iran still attacks U.S. allies, damaging military, energy, and civilian infrastructure, inflicting casualties. With Iran’s vast territory, large population, and strong military, only ground operations could clear resistance—yet that would trigger a long war, trapping the U.S. as in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran knows America’s weakness: it cannot commit to a full-scale ground war, and airstrikes alone cannot topple the regime.

By threatening Hormuz and sparking an energy crisis, Iran forces U.S. concessions. Tehran’s bottom line for ceasefire is simple: regime survival and war compensation. Domestic unrest has been suppressed, removing Washington’s pretext for strikes, and the nuclear issue remains unresolved. Iran’s strategy—guided by China—is asymmetric warfare: “You bomb my country, I hit your vital points; you strike my nuclear sites, I strike Hormuz; you hit my military, I hit your allies.” This is essentially Maoist military philosophy: “You fight your war, I fight mine.”

Trump is now on the defensive. His decapitation strikes fragmented Iran’s leadership, leaving no central figure to negotiate with. Protecting Hormuz is essential, but coalition action takes time, and current U.S. operations are mostly posturing. His attempt to replicate Venezuela failed, and withdrawal from the Middle East is now difficult. As a result, his midterm election prospects are precarious. His recent rhetoric against communist regimes only highlights that his rash attack on Iran was a strategic blunder, playing into his rivals’ hands.