和泉芳怜

 

黄色牽牛

 

Did Trump really get a call from China or just losing his mind again

 

Trump claims that negotiations with China on tariff issues are progressing well, stating he received a call from China's top leader and that both sides will soon reach an agreement. However, China's Foreign Ministry completely denies this. In reality, while Trump’s stance has softened, China has decided to adopt a national strategy to confront the U.S. trade war. Trump’s unpredictability and lack of credibility are well-known. During the last trade war, which wasn’t solely targeted at China, the confrontation between the two sides was exceptionally intense. China not only tore up the signed agreement, completely refusing to honor the U.S.’s trade commitments, but also launched a “pandemic war” to drive Trump out of office. Given such determination back then, why would China bow to trade pressures this time?

Since taking office, China’s top leadership has consistently adopted a hostile stance toward the West, aiming to challenge the U.S. for global dominance. This strategy contradicts the 40 years of reform and opening-up policies, failing to gain international recognition and sparking domestic opposition. This has led to internal and external troubles, economic decline, and public discontent, even affecting the authority of the top leader. However, Trump’s return to power and the initiation of a tougher new trade war seem to validate the correctness of China’s long-standing confrontational approach: “The imperialist U.S. will never abandon its intent to destroy us.” Rather than being contained and suppressed, losing power, it’s better to fight to the end and become the true “defender of international trade.” Recent reports from all Chinese think tanks agree that Trump’s tariff war, driven by his foreign trade policies, will ultimately end in America’s complete failure. Thus, China must seize this historic opportunity. China’s approach is a national strategy, not dictated by Trump’s personal will, and the tariff war will not end quickly.

During the pandemic, China imposed three years of lockdowns, particularly sealing off coastal cities for over a month after the Russia-Ukraine war began. The real purpose was to support Russia. China and Russia had agreed that once Russia’s surprise attack on Kyiv succeeded, China would immediately launch an attack on Taiwan. To counter military pressure from the U.S. and Japan, China locked down major coastal economic cities, believing a month was sufficient to resolve the Taiwan issue. Once the situation was settled, China would then pursue compromises with the West. The so-called comprehensive lockdowns, restricting people’s lives and freedoms while using high-tech surveillance, served another purpose: establishing a wartime system to counter future U.S. pressure. If the U.S. completely decouples from China, leading to war, China has already made comprehensive preparations, conducting rehearsals and adjustments.

A full-scale trade war with the U.S. will ultimately lead to economic devastation, widespread hardship, business closures, mass unemployment, and social unrest. At most, China can adopt a wartime system with total surveillance, leveraging the inherent advantages of its authoritarian regime to maintain control. China has long prepared for a protracted trade war with the U.S., lasting at least 1-2 years or longer, and has not ruled out military conflict. Similar to the West’s strategy in the Russia-Ukraine war, China does not seek a quick, comprehensive victory but aims to exhaust the opponent’s strength over time. In contrast, the U.S. is entirely unprepared. While it has temporarily suspended tariffs on other countries for three months, China has become the primary target, bearing the brunt of the pressure. Trump intends to resolve the China issue first, but if he fails, other nations will likely follow China’s lead. As the leader of the anti-American front, China will also be courted by other countries to counterbalance the U.S.

If China wins, it will shake the U.S.’s position as the global hegemon. Economically powerful players like the EU, Japan, and South Korea, which have close economic ties with China and are dissatisfied with Trump’s protectionism, do not welcome U.S. tariff policies. They only yield under pressure. Globalization has expanded for decades since the Cold War, benefiting all parties, and cannot be undone by threats or tariffs—it requires reshaping the global trade system. Decoupling from China’s economy and relocating manufacturing also requires cultivating alternatives. The impact of cutting off Chinese goods has not yet surfaced but will likely manifest during the summer consumption peak, affecting supply chains and prices. Biden’s downfall was due to uncontrolled inflation, and Trump will face the same issue. The American public cares little about partisan disputes and is focused on daily life. As for the so-called return of manufacturing, while people see it as beneficial to the nation, returning to factory work is seen as unrealistic.

The U.S., aside from producing dollars, manufactures nothing. Its priority is maintaining the dollar’s privileged status. Losing the dollar’s global dominance would spell doom. The U.S.-China trade war will severely weaken China, potentially undoing decades of reform and opening-up achievements, but the U.S. will also suffer greatly and decline. For the U.S., the urgent task is to stop Trump’s reckless policies and return to previous economic and trade routes while time remains. Following American tradition, extraordinary measures should be considered if necessary. Authoritarian rivals should be punished, but this requires a gradual approach, uniting allies for a long-term strategy of containment and attrition. 

U.S.-China trade accounts for 40% of the global total, and mishandling it will harm the entire world. For the U.S., the biggest problem now is Trump himself.

 

特朗普稱收到了來自中國的電話他不會是老年癡呆犯了吧

 

特朗普稱正在與中國商談關稅問題進展良好，並且接到了對方最高領導人的電話，雙方很快會達成協議，然而中方外交部對此完全否認。從實際情況看雖然特朗普態度軟化，但中方已經決定採取國家戰略對抗美國貿易戰，何況特朗普反復無常毫無信用可言。上次特朗普發動貿易戰雖然不是僅針對中國，但是雙方的對抗異常激烈，中方不但最後撕毀了簽署的協議，完全不履行美國提出的各項貿易約定，還發動疫情戰將特朗普趕下臺。既然當年有如此決心，又怎麽會對這次的貿易打壓低頭。

中方最高層自上臺後一直採取敵視西方，與美國對抗到底的姿態爭取世界老大地位，雖然這種策略與經歷了40年的改革開放國策相違背，既得不到國際認同也激發了國內的反對聲音，導致中國內憂外困經濟凋敝民怨沸騰，甚至影響到最高領導人的權力，但特朗普再次上臺引發新一輪更嚴厲的貿易戰，反而證明瞭一直以來與美國對抗的正確性，“帝國主義亡我之心不死”，與其被圍堵打壓失去政權，還不如鬥爭到底成爲真正的“國際貿易捍衛者”。中國所有智庫都在近期的報告中認爲，特朗普的對外貿易政策所引發的關稅戰，最後必將以美國的徹底失敗而告終，因此需要把握歷史機遇。所以，中國採取的是國家戰略，並非特朗普的個人意志，貿易關稅戰不會短時間結束。

疫情期間中國封控3年，特別是在俄烏戰爭開打後，將沿海城市完全封鎖一個多月，真正目的原本是策應俄羅斯，中俄約定是在俄國突襲烏克蘭基輔成功後，中方立刻發動對台灣的攻擊，爲了應對美日的軍事壓力，因此封鎖沿海主要經濟城市，中方認爲解決台灣問題一個多月時間足夠，當大局已定後再展開對歐美的妥協。所謂全面封控限制人民生活和自由，再利用高科技手段徹底監控的另一個目的，就是採用這種戰時體制來對抗未來美國的打壓，如果美國與中國徹底切割最後導致戰爭，中國已經做好了進行全面準備，並且完成了預演和各項調試。

全方位貿易戰與美國對抗，最終導致經濟凋敝民生困苦，企業倒閉大量失業引發社會動蕩，最多就是採用戰時體制全民監管，專制獨裁體制對於掌控國家有先天優勢。中國早已經準備好了與美國打長期貿易戰，時間最少1-2年甚至可以更長，並且不排除軍事熱戰手段。正如歐美在俄烏戰爭上所採取的戰略，不求短時間全面勝利，而是長期消耗對方實力。相反美國卻完全沒有做出任何準備，現在雖然暫緩了對世界其他國家的關稅3個月，中國成了衆矢之的承擔了最大壓力，特朗普打算先解決中國問題，但如果問題解決不了，其他國家必然也會效仿，中國作爲反美領袖也會被其他國家所拉攏用來制衡美國。

 

如果中國打贏則會動搖美國世界霸主的地位，真正有經濟實力的歐盟日韓等，不但與中方有緊密的經濟聯係，而且對特朗普的貿易保護主義不滿，美國的關稅政策在全世界都不受歡迎，只是迫於壓力退讓而已。全球化在冷戰後已經擴展了數十年之久，各方都有收益並不是幾句威脅和加多少關稅可以解決的，這需要重塑全球貿易體系。與中國經濟全面脫鈎製造業撤離，也需要先培養替代者。現在，美國斷絕中國商品的影響尚未顯現，大約在夏季消費高峰期就會反應在商品供應和物價上，拜登下臺是因爲沒有控制好通脹，特朗普也將面臨同樣問題。美國人民對於黨派之爭沒有興趣只關心日常生活。至於所謂製造業回歸，民衆認爲對於國家有利，但回到工廠根本不可能。

美國除了生產美元不生產任何東西，美國要做的就是維護美元的特權，如果失去了美元的國際地位，就意味著末日的到來。中美貿易戰最終會令中國元氣大傷，幾十年改革開放成果毀於一旦，但美國也會深受其害走向衰亡。所以現在對於美國來説，最需要做的是阻止特朗普的倒行逆施，趁現在時日尚早儘快回到以往的經貿路綫，對此按照美國傳統應該不惜採取特殊手段。專制的競爭對手應該懲罰但需要循序漸進，聯合盟友做好準備長期消耗打壓。中美貿易占到全球的4成，問題處理不好全世界都受害。對於美國來講現在最大的問題就是特朗普本身。

Asami Kondou 近藤あさみ

 

武藤十夢

 

With Trump conceding in the trade war, it's now China's turn to hold him by the balls

 

Trump has suddenly shown so-called goodwill toward China, offering to reduce tariffs to around 50%. His bargaining chips include not pursuing the origin of the pandemic and claiming smooth progress in negotiations with China, emphasizing his good personal relationship with the Chinese leader and the possibility of quickly reaching an agreement. This haggling approach, akin to small-scale market trading, is utterly simplistic when applied to international trade agreements. The U.S.-China relationship is a comprehensive economic confrontation, with only one victor likely to emerge. China’s response to Trump’s actions is a national strategy, not easily swayed by a few words. Recent moves like selling U.S. Treasury bonds, withdrawing from private equity investments, halting purchases of U.S. agricultural products, rejecting Boeing aircraft, and restricting rare earth exports show that while China’s options may be fewer than the U.S.’s, the pressure these actions create is significant.

After taking office with aggressive rhetoric, threatening China and other nations with heightened punishments, Trump softened his stance in just over ten days, effectively backing down. This not only reveals his lack of credibility but also exposes weaknesses to his adversaries. The U.S.-China trade relationship, which has been mutually beneficial for decades, stems from the U.S. post-Cold War policy of outsourcing manufacturing—first to Japan, then to the Four Asian Tigers, and later to China. China was nurtured by the U.S., and abruptly halting this relationship hurts the U.S. the most. The recent tariff exemptions on products like phones, computers, semiconductors, antibiotics, vitamins, furniture, and auto parts—over a hundred categories—highlight that the U.S. no longer produces these goods domestically, relying heavily on China. Even if imports from other countries are possible, they cannot meet U.S. market demands in the short term, a situation unlikely to change within Trump’s term.

Due to U.S. suppliers stockpiling goods in anticipation of tariff wars, market price reactions are not yet obvious, but public panic-buying has already begun. By July, during the peak summer sales season, shortages and price hikes are expected to hit. The U.S. economy relies 70% on domestic consumption, but with low savings rates and limited disposable income among ordinary Americans, significant price increases will severely impact livelihoods. Biden’s election loss was not due to governance issues but inflation-driven price surges. Trump’s trade war is likely to exacerbate these problems. The trade imbalance lies in the fact that most affordable daily goods used by Americans are supplied by China, irreplaceable in the short term—without Chinese goods, American life would be unsustainable.

The U.S.’s decades-long currency overissuance, which could have triggered severe inflation, has been offset by China’s continuously cheaper exports. In contrast, as an authoritarian state, China can largely ignore domestic economic fallout from trade wars, absorbing losses and, if necessary, reverting to a planned economy, as demonstrated during the three-year pandemic lockdowns. China’s resilience far surpasses that of the U.S., enabling it to endure prolonged economic attrition. For the U.S. to wage a trade war, it must first cultivate a trade partner to replace China and rally international allies to confront China together. Launching a global trade war without such preparation is doomed to fail.

Even if the U.S. softens its stance, China is unlikely to yield and will continue its resistance, imposing conditions such as removing all trade barriers, eliminating all tariffs, lifting export restrictions on high-tech products, and ending semiconductor bans. Without concrete U.S. concessions, the trade war will persist, and China will not engage in substantive negotiations. China may even demand an apology from Trump and a commitment to permanently abandon trade wars. By doing so, China could emerge, with U.S. acquiescence, as a defender of global trade, leading a “community of shared human destiny” and establishing itself as an international leader surpassing the U.S., bolstering its global image through the trade war.

Trump, eager for quick results, is likely to react impulsively to China’s indifference, escalating not just tariffs but other forms of pressure. However, faced with China’s resolute defiance, he will likely back down, as seen in his failed 24-hour Russia-Ukraine mediation. Trump’s second term has two apparent goals: to disrupt the U.S. for his family’s financial gain and to help Russia escape its predicament. His real estate empire, funded by Russian money, has survived multiple near-bankruptcies thanks to rubles. His first election was supported by Russia, orchestrated by Putin to defeat Hillary Clinton, aimed at alleviating Russia’s isolation from the Ukraine border conflict. Now, with Russia facing defeat, Putin has reactivated Trump as a strategic asset. The tariff trade war is a facade to distract from aiding Russia, with the real goal of shifting focus from Russian affairs. This explains Trump’s sudden demand for Ukraine to cede Crimea and the four eastern regions, lift all sanctions on Russia, and his threat to withdraw from mediation if Russia doesn’t comply. While the world fixates on the trade war, Russian issues fade into the background. Notably, Russia is among the few countries exempted from heavy tariffs, with even African nations and Pacific islands facing higher tariffs.

The U.S. is unlikely to fully withdraw from mediation, but its capacity is limited. Having alienated much of the world, Trump may struggle to fulfill Putin’s tasks. With Europe independently supporting Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine war and China’s unrelenting stance in the trade war, Trump’s actions continue to undermine U.S. national interests. Each time he proclaims America’s greatness, the U.S. edges closer to decline, teetering on the brink of an abyss.

三上悠亜

 

貿易戰特朗普讓步這下輪到中國攥緊他褲襠裏的小鷄鷄了

 

特朗普突然對中國釋出所謂善意，願意將關稅減低至50%左右，還有的籌碼就是不追究疫情源頭，並且與中方的談判進展良好，他個人與競爭對手的大領導關係良好，雙方可以儘快達成協議等等。這種漫天要價坐地還錢式樣的談判方法，最適合自由市場裏的小販買賣，將之運用在國際貿易協議上，簡直就是小兒科。中美之間進行的是整體經濟對抗，最後只會剩下一個勝利者，中國抗擊特朗普發動的是國家戰略，不會因爲幾句話二輕易改變，最近出售美國國債，撤出私募基金投資，停止購買美國農產品，不接受美國波音飛機，阻礙稀土出口等等，雖然相較於美國來説中方可以打的牌不多，但真正實施起來製造的壓力也很大。

 

特朗普上臺後氣勢洶洶，不斷對中國和其他國家進行威脅和加大懲罰力度，但很快態度放軟，不過十幾天就偃旗息鼓。這種做法除了表明他毫無信用可言外，也讓對手看到了其中的弱點和軟肋。中美貿易雙贏的局面持續了幾十年，製造業外移是美國冷戰後的國策，從二戰後的日本，到四小龍，再到冷戰後的中國，中國就是美國培養起來的，現在突然停止受傷害最大，反應最激烈的是美國，從最近減免關稅的手機，電腦，電機產品，半導體，甚至到其他抗生素，維他命，傢俱，汽車零件等等，最少有過百門類的各種產品，美國根本就不生產都是中國提供，即便很多貨物可以從其他國家進口，但也難於滿足美國國內市場需求的數量，而且這種情況在數年內根本不可能改變，至少是在特朗普任內絕對解決不了。

 

現在由於美國的供貨商爲了應對關稅戰，提前進口了大量商品做準備，因此整體市場物價反應還不明顯，但已經引發民衆恐慌性囤貨。幾個月後大約是在夏天銷售旺季的7月份，貨物短缺和價格上升就會發作。美國經濟增長7成靠內部消費，而美國普通民衆的儲蓄率非常低，手上可供支配的流動資金非常有限，物價大幅上升對民生影響極大。拜登的落選並非執政問題，而是通脹導致物價大幅上升，現在特朗普發動的貿易戰引發的問題更嚴重。況且美中貿易的不平衡在於，絕大多數美國民衆日常生活中使用的廉價商品，都是由中國提供而且完全無法取代，簡而言之沒有中國商品美國人民無法生活。

 

美國多年來濫發貨幣引發的惡性通脹之所以沒有導致民生問題，都是被中國多年來不斷降價的出口商品抵消了。相對來講中國作爲專制國家，可以完全忽視貿易戰引發的國內經濟問題，對於造成的各種經濟損失可以忽略不計，最多就是回到早年的計劃經濟時代，而且疫情期間的3年大封控，中國甚至此做了預演。因此抗擊打能力遠超美國可以長期消耗。美國對中國發動貿易戰的前提是必須先培養取代中國的貿易替代者，然後聯合國際盟友共同對抗中國，而現在不做任何準備發起針對全球的貿易戰，最後的結果自然是必敗無疑。

 

現在的情況是即便美國主動軟化立場，中國也不會就範仍然會繼續對抗下去，並且提出諸多條件例如，撤銷所有貿易壁壘，強加的所有關稅清零，開放高科技產品的出口限制，半導體晶片禁售取消等等，只要美國不做出具體讓步，貿易戰將持續下去，中方絕不會出動與美方展開談判，即便是對話也不會有實質進展。中方甚至會要求特朗普道歉，並且做出承諾永久放棄對中方發動貿易戰。如此中方就會由於美國的加持，真正成了國際貿易的捍衛者，主導了人類命運的共同體，成了高於美國的國際領袖，通過貿易戰樹立了國際形象。

 

希望立刻獲得結果的特朗普，對於中方的冷淡和不配合，必然還是之前的那一套，先是做出過激反應，不僅從關稅還會從其他層面展開打壓，然後面對中方的置之不理頑強對抗，最後選擇放棄主動放棄，貿易戰必將和現在的所謂俄烏調停24小時結束一樣，最後落得個爛尾的下場。特朗普二次上臺的最終目的只有兩個，通過徹底攪亂美國為家族謀取經濟利益，還有就是幫助俄羅斯擺脫困境。他的地產商身份全是白手套，資金全部來自俄羅斯，曾經數次面臨破產都是靠盧布幫忙才渡過危機。

 

他的第一次當選也是靠俄國的暗中支持，並且是普京親自操作才擊敗希拉蕊，當時的目的是幫助俄國擺脫因俄烏邊境衝突導致的國際孤立。現在就在俄羅斯面臨戰敗之際，普京再次啓動了特朗普這個戰略間諜，他發動的所謂關稅貿易戰完全就是爲了策應俄國，這種毫無邊際任性的胡作非爲完全是戰略上的欺騙，真正目的是爲了幫助俄羅斯轉移視綫，貿易戰是假救普京是真，這就是爲何現在他突然再次要求烏克蘭，出讓包括克裡米亞和東部四州在內的所有領土，並且全面為俄羅斯制裁解禁。還聲稱如果俄不就範美國就退出調停。當全世界都在關注貿易戰的同時，俄國事務就變得無關緊要了。況且俄國還是貿易戰極少數獲得豁免的國家，非洲小國和太平洋小島的關稅都比俄國多。

 

美國最終不會徹底退出調停，實在也是心有餘而力不足，特朗普在犯衆憎得罪全世界的情況下，也未必能夠完成得了普京交給他的任務，俄烏戰爭歐洲已經開始獨立支持烏克蘭，貿易戰還有個喜歡鬥爭到底的中國。只可惜特朗普上臺後直到現在美國的整體國家利益受到打擊巨大，他每高喊美國強大一次，美國就離衰亡更近一步，很快就會到達無底深淵了。

風吹ケイ

 

近藤あさみ