新藤まなみ

 

白濱美兎

 

白濱美兎

 

三上悠亜

 

三宮つばき

 

奥田咲

 

Trump's 24-hour ceasefire was changed to half a year, but Putin was not satisfied

 

Trump has signed a large number of executive orders since taking office, but the so-called 24-hour truce between Russia and Ukraine and the immediate imposition of punitive tariffs on China have not been implemented, but an increase of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico was announced immediately. China is said to be negotiating a 10% tariff increase on 1 February, much lower than Canada and Mexico, and claims to be visiting China within 100 days. Canada and Mexico account for about 30% of U.S. imports. If the same tariff is imposed on China immediately, more than half of U.S. imports will be priced higher, which is tantamount to stimulating U.S. inflation, and the price increase of imports will ultimately be borne by U.S. importers and consumers. Moreover, Trump hopes to use the pressure of the tariffs to force China to sell TikTok to his buddies in the short term, as well as to restricting the export of fentanyl. The tariffs on China will be surely imposed, but they will be used as a bargaining chip to keep up the pressure in exchange for greater benefits. 

 

Trump's idea of an immediate truce was later changed to within six months, but after speaking to both sides, it became clear that the previous idea was unrealistic. With the establishment of a buffer zone for European peacekeeping troops and verbal pressure from the U.S., a truce based on Trump's personal prestige is a fool's errand. Ukraine's only condition is to keep its territory intact, otherwise, even if it is pressured to stop the war now, it is inevitable that another war will break out in the future. Russia's situation is even more delicate. If there is an armistice, the troops must be withdrawn, but it will be difficult to protect the territories that have been invaded. In fact, all the wars were launched around Crimea, the purpose is to connect the four southeastern states and Crimea from land and sea into one, and then deploy military forces to the region, control Crimea as a sea port to Europe, the history of Russia's control of Crimea's purpose is this.

 

Russia is not capable of occupying the entire territory of Ukraine, the second largest country in Europe. After the failure of the Kiev raid, Russia did not deploy all its military forces in Ukraine, but consolidated the land it controlled in the border war that began in 2014, with the aim of maintaining its control over Crimea. Now hastily stop the war Ukraine is bound to ask for a withdrawal timetable, according to the current situation on the battlefield, Russia has degenerated from a strategic offensive into a mutual stalemate, although the tactical pressure by constantly launching a battle of the battlefield, but the Russian army has no ability to eliminate the Ukrainian army, and now the so-called offensive is only to maintain the war situation, with the long-term consumption of the Russian army, the decadence of the Russian army is obvious, as long as the withdrawal of the current military advantage will also be lost.

 

Moreover, without the support of the United States, Europe can also maintain the war independently, so the so-called armistice for Putin, neither to ensure that the occupied territories cannot maintain the status quo, so Russia is not willing to accept mediation in the short term. Zelensky as long as there is NATO support for how long the war lasts, it does not matter, in the military as long as continue to decrease the Russian war resources to combat, consume the Russian army's armaments and manpower, and expand second battlefields, with the time under the consumption, the Russian army is bound to be defeated undoubtedly. If it is about exchanging land for peace, then the NATO-backed wars of the past few years are meaningless. 

 

Trump in the case of mediation did not work by stopping aid to Ukraine in the form of 90 days, indirectly help Russia to pressure Ukraine, but the problem is that Europe will still continue to support Ukraine, and Russia in the military does not have the ability to obtain absolute advantage, the Biden administration has provided Ukraine in the military equipment quite complementary to cope with Trump's cut-off of military aid, so in the short term, Ukraine will not be affected by the impact. As for the follow-up, it depends on Trump's next move, and from a realistic point of view, he simply does not have a better solution. Moreover, the focus of his administration is still mainly on the domestic front, and he is unlikely to make any major shocking moves in the international arena until he has finished reorganizing the maladministration of the former government.

 

特朗普説好的24小時停戰改成半年現在怎麽沒動靜了

 

特朗普上臺後簽署了大量行政命令，但之前的所謂24小時俄烏停戰，對中國立刻施加懲罰性關稅沒有實行，但立刻公佈了對加拿大和墨西哥增收25%關稅。對中國據説正在商討2月1日加收10%的關稅，遠比加拿大和墨西哥為低，並且聲稱要在百日內訪華。加拿大和墨西哥的進口額約佔美國30%左右，如果對中國立刻徵收相同關稅，如此美國過半的進口商品將會價格上漲，如此等於刺激美國通脹，進口商品價格上升最後還是美國進口商和消費者負擔。因此目前在對鄰國立刻施壓的同時，保留與中國談判的餘地作爲緩衝，況且特朗普還希望利用關稅的壓力，迫使中國短期內出售Tiktok給他的好友，還有就是迫使對方承諾限制芬太尼的出口。對於中國的關稅一定會施加，但會利用其作爲籌碼不斷施壓來換取更大的利益，而且與過往的全面打壓不同將採取更有針對性的政策。

 

特朗普的立刻停戰，雖然後來改口在半年以內，但在與雙方通話後發現之前的説法根本不現實。設立緩衝區派駐歐洲維和部隊，美國袖手旁觀口頭施壓，憑藉特朗普的個人威望就能停戰是癡心妄想。烏克蘭的條件只有一個就是保持領土完整，否則即便現在迫於壓力停戰，今後再次爆發戰爭是必然的。俄國的處境更加微妙，如果停戰就必須撤兵，但如此侵略的領土將難以得到保障。其實所有的戰事都是圍繞著克裡米亞而展開，目的是將東南部4州和克裡米亞從海陸兩方面連成一體，然後將軍事力量部署到該地區，控制克裡米亞成爲通往歐洲的出海口，歷史上俄國控制克裡米亞的目的就是如此。

 

俄國沒有能力占領歐洲第二大國烏克蘭的全部國土，在之前的基輔突襲戰失敗以後，俄國並沒有將全部軍事力量在烏克蘭展開，而是鞏固從2014年開始的邊境戰爭所控制的土地，目的就是保持對克裡米亞的掌控。現在貿然停戰烏克蘭必然要求提出撤軍時間表，按照目前戰場的形勢，俄羅斯已從戰略進攻退化成相互僵持，雖然在戰術上通過不斷發動陣地戰施壓，但俄軍完全沒有消滅烏軍的能力，現在所謂的攻勢只是爲了維持戰局，隨著長期的消耗俄軍頹勢明顯，只要撤軍目前所謂的軍事優勢也會喪失。

況且沒有美國的支持歐洲也能獨立維持戰爭，因此所謂停戰對於普京來講，既不能確保侵佔的領土也不能維持現狀，因此俄國不願意在短期內接受調停。澤連斯基只要有北約的支持戰爭持續多久都無所謂，在軍事上只要不斷加大對俄羅斯戰爭資源的打擊，持續消耗俄軍的軍備和人力，持續擴大開闢第二戰場，隨著時間的推移俄軍消耗下必敗無疑，只要能夠滿足條件烏克蘭樂於接受調停，所謂條件無非是要麽撤軍歸還領土，要麽以維持現狀為前提加入北約。如果是用土地換取和平，那麽這幾年北約支持下的戰爭就毫無意義。

 

特朗普在調停不果的情況下通過停止對烏援助90天的形式，間接幫助俄羅斯對烏克蘭施壓，但問題是歐洲仍然會對烏克蘭繼續支持，而俄羅斯在軍事上也沒有取得絕對優勢的能力，拜登政府已在軍備上提供了烏克蘭相當的補充，用以應付特朗普的軍援斷絕，因此短期內烏克蘭受到的影響不大。至於後續則要看特朗普的下一步行動，從現實情況看他根本沒有更好的辦法。而且他施政的重心目前主要還是在國內，在重新梳理完前任政府所謂的施政不當之前，不可能在國際上有震撼性的大動作。

Moe Hirano 平野もえ