Trump's 24-hour ceasefire was changed to half a year, but Putin was not satisfied

 

Trump has signed a large number of executive orders since taking office, but the so-called 24-hour truce between Russia and Ukraine and the immediate imposition of punitive tariffs on China have not been implemented, but an increase of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico was announced immediately. China is said to be negotiating a 10% tariff increase on 1 February, much lower than Canada and Mexico, and claims to be visiting China within 100 days. Canada and Mexico account for about 30% of U.S. imports. If the same tariff is imposed on China immediately, more than half of U.S. imports will be priced higher, which is tantamount to stimulating U.S. inflation, and the price increase of imports will ultimately be borne by U.S. importers and consumers. Moreover, Trump hopes to use the pressure of the tariffs to force China to sell TikTok to his buddies in the short term, as well as to restricting the export of fentanyl. The tariffs on China will be surely imposed, but they will be used as a bargaining chip to keep up the pressure in exchange for greater benefits. 

 

Trump's idea of an immediate truce was later changed to within six months, but after speaking to both sides, it became clear that the previous idea was unrealistic. With the establishment of a buffer zone for European peacekeeping troops and verbal pressure from the U.S., a truce based on Trump's personal prestige is a fool's errand. Ukraine's only condition is to keep its territory intact, otherwise, even if it is pressured to stop the war now, it is inevitable that another war will break out in the future. Russia's situation is even more delicate. If there is an armistice, the troops must be withdrawn, but it will be difficult to protect the territories that have been invaded. In fact, all the wars were launched around Crimea, the purpose is to connect the four southeastern states and Crimea from land and sea into one, and then deploy military forces to the region, control Crimea as a sea port to Europe, the history of Russia's control of Crimea's purpose is this.

 

Russia is not capable of occupying the entire territory of Ukraine, the second largest country in Europe. After the failure of the Kiev raid, Russia did not deploy all its military forces in Ukraine, but consolidated the land it controlled in the border war that began in 2014, with the aim of maintaining its control over Crimea. Now hastily stop the war Ukraine is bound to ask for a withdrawal timetable, according to the current situation on the battlefield, Russia has degenerated from a strategic offensive into a mutual stalemate, although the tactical pressure by constantly launching a battle of the battlefield, but the Russian army has no ability to eliminate the Ukrainian army, and now the so-called offensive is only to maintain the war situation, with the long-term consumption of the Russian army, the decadence of the Russian army is obvious, as long as the withdrawal of the current military advantage will also be lost.

 

Moreover, without the support of the United States, Europe can also maintain the war independently, so the so-called armistice for Putin, neither to ensure that the occupied territories cannot maintain the status quo, so Russia is not willing to accept mediation in the short term. Zelensky as long as there is NATO support for how long the war lasts, it does not matter, in the military as long as continue to decrease the Russian war resources to combat, consume the Russian army's armaments and manpower, and expand second battlefields, with the time under the consumption, the Russian army is bound to be defeated undoubtedly. If it is about exchanging land for peace, then the NATO-backed wars of the past few years are meaningless. 

 

Trump in the case of mediation did not work by stopping aid to Ukraine in the form of 90 days, indirectly help Russia to pressure Ukraine, but the problem is that Europe will still continue to support Ukraine, and Russia in the military does not have the ability to obtain absolute advantage, the Biden administration has provided Ukraine in the military equipment quite complementary to cope with Trump's cut-off of military aid, so in the short term, Ukraine will not be affected by the impact. As for the follow-up, it depends on Trump's next move, and from a realistic point of view, he simply does not have a better solution. Moreover, the focus of his administration is still mainly on the domestic front, and he is unlikely to make any major shocking moves in the international arena until he has finished reorganizing the maladministration of the former government.