The Russia-Ukraine war has become more politically complicated with Trump's return to power. Now it is almost the consensus of the West and Russia that the war will be protracted. The reason why Putin uses the human sea tactic to conduct positional warfare at all costs is to delay time and wait. The internal divisions in Europe and the United States after Trump came to power, and the reason why other NATO member states have continuously stepped up their participation in the Ukraine war, is that they intend to have the ability to fight Russia independently as soon as possible without the support of the United States, and have made various preparations for this.
Objectively speaking, it is almost impossible for Trump to use his power to force all parties to cease fighting after taking office. If the United States stops military assistance to Ukraine, it will indirectly withdraw from NATO. In this way, the United States will be marginalized by Europe and even the world. Not supporting Ukraine is helping Russia, in this way, Trump will become Putin's accomplice, and the United States will lose its world leadership position in disguise.
What is ironic is that the so-called rivals that Trump is targeting are actually Russia's biggest supporters. Therefore, the opponents that Trump is prepared to suppress with all his strength in the future, as Putin's allies, are actually on the same front as Trump. Even if Trump is re-elected, his term will only last four years. Europe is fully capable of independent support. Four years later, the United States will still have to return to the current track of joint resistance against Russia. The purpose of Europe's support for Ukraine is to permanently solve the peace problem on the European continent, completely remove the threat from Russia and completely disintegrate it.
Now Europe's unprecedented unity is fully confident in bringing Russia down. Even according to Trump's request that year, the defense budgets of most European countries had exceeded 2% or more, and it was clearly stated that in the future, in order to deal with Russia, they would soon increase to more than 6% during the Cold War. Trump's so-called support for Russia's invasion without satisfying the percentage has become completely untenable now. As a poor amateur politician, he still does not understand that once NATO is activated as a war machine, it cannot be stopped artificially.
Trump’s so-called reason for a unilateral ceasefire is lacking in basis. Now it is Russia that has invaded Ukraine and launched the largest and longest war of aggression since World War II. Moreover, as one of the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, it is the most important defender of world peace. To invade other countries, any ceasefire must be based on Russia's complete withdrawal from other countries' territories and unconditional compensation for all losses caused by the war, and the criminals who started the war must be held accountable. If Trump wants to support Putin through a truce, he too will eventually be reckoned with at the end of his term.
What is the ultimate reason why Trump unconditionally supports Russia, the United States’ biggest enemy since the Cold War? There is absolutely no need for him to risk the world’s disapproval and suddenly change the U.S. position to force Ukraine to accept the loss of territory in exchange for the current Western comprehensive confrontation with Russia. The war has only been maintained until now with the support of NATO led by the United States. Once Russia invades Ukraine, the final outcome will not end in failure. If it continues to develop, it will continue to launch external expansion after recovering its strength, at least Russia, the threat to European peace cannot be eliminated and is in danger of worsening at any time.
There is only one reason for Trump to do this in the future, is that Putin has all the evidence that secretly supported Trump's election. Once it is made public, he will surely fall and become a criminal in history. The so-called "Russia Gate" back then was not groundless. Putin At that time, it not only provided financial support but also secretly used state power to help Trump defeat his political opponents and was finally elected. The U.S. electoral system is extremely backward and full of loopholes. The reason why Trump, who was not favored at the time, dared to run for election was because he had secretly obtained some form of commitment from Russia before the election.
Putin hoped that through Trump's election, Russia would be able to break the international isolation that had characterized Russia since 2014 after the invasion of eastern Ukraine triggered a conflict on the Russian-Ukrainian border. The reason why Putin insists on continuing the war at all costs is to wait for Trump to be elected and then use the influence of the United States to force NATO to cease operations.
For Putin personally, even if Russia withdraws its troops unconditionally, Putin can keep his power as a bargaining chip. Otherwise, if the war continues for a long time and Russia's war resources are exhausted, it will be the day when Russia is defeated and Russia is disintegrated and Putin is guillotined. This is the ultimate outcome of the so-called “Russian dream” promised by Putin.
However, from the moment Putin made up his mind to launch a war of aggression, his inevitable failure was already determined. Even if there are fundamental changes in the development of wars in the future, Putin, as the historical sinner who launched the war, will definitely be liquidated. And if Trump becomes an accomplice, he will face the last shot fired from nowhere.
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