Just as Trump promised
to give Iran two weeks to consider surrender, he immediately deployed strategic
bombers carrying bunker-busting missiles to destroy three of Iran's most
critical nuclear weapons facilities. Although Iran claimed the losses were minimal
and that they had already made prior transfers, there is no doubt that Iran's
nuclear weapons development has suffered a severe setback, making recovery in
the short to medium term highly unlikely. Israel's basic objective in this
attack has been achieved.
From the current situation, it is clear that Iran was completely unaware of Israel's surprise attack, resulting in the decapitation of key military leaders and nuclear weapons experts. Therefore, it is impossible for Iran to have made adequate concealment or transfer measures for all its nuclear facilities in advance. However, even so, as long as the Iranian government maintains its rule, completely destroying its nuclear weapons development is unrealistic—it would merely require more time to rebuild. The current situation is actually more complex than before the nuclear facilities were destroyed.
Since the United
States has already entered the conflict, it will not easily back down. The
so-called precondition of Iran's unconditional surrender simply does not exist.
If Khamenei were to surrender, it would be tantamount to treason and a betrayal
of Islam, stripping him of his divine legitimacy and turning him into a public
enemy to be purged. If he does not surrender, he risks being targeted for
assassination. His only option is to go into hiding and avoid making public
statements, but retaliatory actions against Israel will not cease in the short
to medium term.
In theory, blockading the Strait of Hormuz is not technically difficult, as its narrowest point is only 30–50 kilometers wide. Deploying mines could disrupt normal maritime traffic, halting oil exports and severely impacting energy-importing nations like Europe, China, India, Japan, and South Korea. This would cause a global economic shock and soaring oil prices, inevitably leading to a coalition of powers uniting to decisively address the Iran issue. Moreover, Iran's government relies almost entirely on oil exports for revenue. A prolonged blockade would cripple the regime's ability to sustain itself, making such a strategy unsustainable.
It would also affect other Gulf nations. Iran's
proxies, such as the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, and terrorist groups in Syria
and Yemen, all require substantial financial and military support to resist
U.S. and Israeli strikes. Iran's allies, China and Russia, are unlikely to
intervene directly. Putin currently depends heavily on Trump to maintain the
status quo in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and with U.S.-China trade tensions
only recently cooling, neither power is willing to risk a confrontation with
the U.S. over Iran. Thus, Iran must rely on its own capabilities to navigate
this crisis.
Given that the U.S. has
been drawn into the conflict by Israel, it is determined to resolve the Iran
issue once and for all. The demand for unconditional surrender is essentially a
strategy to force Iran into a corner. Iran's missiles and drones will eventually
be depleted, and once its war resources are exhausted, its ability to resist
will collapse. While ground forces are not necessary to topple an authoritarian
regime, this does not prevent the rise of domestic opposition within Iran. The
U.S. has even promoted the Pahlavi dynasty's heir, an American citizen, as a
potential successor. Regardless of whether Khamenei surrenders, the leaders of
Iran's theocratic regime will be targeted for elimination, and domestic
opposition will be supported to establish a pro-U.S. government as quickly as
possible. For now, the U.S. and Israel will avoid deploying ground troops,
focusing instead on air strikes to deplete Iran's war resources and energy. So
far, apart from launching ballistic missile attacks on Israeli civilians,
Iran's retaliatory options have been extremely limited.
Air strikes from both
sides will likely continue for some time, with all parties observing subsequent
developments. Regardless, the current situation is advantageous for Israel. The
day Iran successfully develops nuclear weapons would mark the beginning of
Israel's destruction. Now, with the crisis averted and the U.S. taking the
lead, Israel can step back and observe, leaving the stage to President Trump.
After a series of foreign policy missteps, Trump's decisive action against Iran
will bring him significant political gains. For Iran, the optimal window for
negotiation has passed. It lacks the strength to wage all-out war and can only
take things one step at a time. The best strategy would be to seek mediation
from allies like China and Russia to preserve the regime, avoiding reckless
actions that could lead to catastrophic consequences. Otherwise, the inevitable
outcome will be an early meeting with Allah.
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