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2024年6月18日 星期二

Zelensky’s Winning Streak: Cash, Guns, and Putin’s Envy

 


Zelensky has recently been in high spirits, receiving cash and weapons wherever he goes. Ukraine has never received such global attention in its history. Topics like joining NATO are hardly worth mentioning. Western weapons and personnel have been pouring in, effectively making Ukraine a de facto member of NATO. It has become one of the best-equipped and most powerful military forces in Europe, with a large troop size. Back when the Russo-Ukrainian conflict began, the Ukrainian army disintegrated in less than a month. Now, it has managed to push Russia off its pedestal as the world’s second military power.

As long as there’s cash and weapons, Ukraine doesn’t hesitate to fight. In other words, it fights as long as it can. NATO has evolved into a ‘super-NATO’ organization to counter Russia. Although NATO’s military readiness had waned since the end of the Cold War, it has been gradually rebuilding its capabilities over the past two years. While it may take time to reach the level of countering the Soviet Union, NATO’s purpose has always been to confront Russia. In contrast, Russia lacks the strength it had during the Soviet era. Its military capacity is less than 1/20 of the former Soviet Union’s. Moreover, many former Warsaw Pact allies have joined NATO, making it challenging for Russia to face the united Western front.

Russia inherited a large arsenal from the Soviet Union, but much of it is outdated and unusable. The Russo-Ukrainian war has evolved into a comprehensive conflict, combining satellite reconnaissance, drone attacks, advanced tanks, minefields, wire obstacles, long-range precision artillery, and close combat. This hybrid warfare model blends high-tech capabilities with traditional tactics. Russia’s war effort is astonishing, with casualties often reaching thousands per day for a single regiment, even for minor tactical gains. Their endurance is remarkable.

The current trend suggests a prolonged conflict accepted by both sides. The West aims to reach a critical point by exhausting Russia, ultimately leading to its collapse. Russia hopes that a protracted war will create internal divisions within NATO, allowing them to sacrifice Ukrainian territory for peace. However, Russia’s war resources will eventually run out, and President Putin cannot maintain his rule indefinitely. If Russia is defeated, it means the end of his regime. As a last resort, nuclear weapons might come into play as retaliation against the West."


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