The S-400’s Rain Dance: How It Went from Skyguard to Sprinkler

 

Ukraine has managed to destroy more than a dozen of Russia’s prized S-300 and S-400 air defense missile systems. Considering that there are fewer than 100 of these systems in total, losing one-tenth of them is a significant blow. Recently, the Crimean S-400 air defense system has been repeatedly targeted and neutralized. The S-400, which Russia boasts can intercept low-orbit satellites and even birds, fighter jets, drones, and ballistic missiles, has proven less effective in actual combat. Israel’s Air Force, using F-16s and F-35s, has operated almost unimpeded in the Middle East, attacking countries equipped with Russian S-400 systems, including Iran, Iraq, and Syria. Surprisingly, the S-400 failed to intercept even basic threats like F-16s, let alone advanced stealth aircraft like the F-35.

In contrast to the hype surrounding Russian weaponry, the S-400’s performance in real-world scenarios has been lackluster. Even the retired ATACMs (Advanced Tactical Missile System) from the United States and Europe’s “Storm Shadow” missiles have outperformed it. In one incident, the S-400 detected a target but failed to intercept it, launching six missiles that all missed. This decline in effectiveness is alarming, especially considering the initial success of the S-400 during the early stages of the conflict.

As the war between Western powers and Russia escalates, Turkey has firmly aligned itself with Ukraine. Despite historical tensions between Turkey and Russia, including centuries of conflict over Crimea, Turkey now stands firmly on Ukraine’s side. Turkey’s decision to purchase the S-400 system, even at the expense of losing access to the F-35, demonstrates its commitment. Additionally, the United States had previously acquired the S-300 system, and now Turkey’s familiarity with the S-400 makes it well-equipped to guide Ukraine in targeting these systems effectively.

Furthermore, Western powers have provided Ukraine with advanced attack weapons, even if some of them are considered outdated. These weapons are more than sufficient to counter Russia’s relatively low-tech electronic defenses. The S-400’s shortcomings in detection, interception, and overall capability have made it vulnerable. Ukraine, using cost-effective drones and missiles, has systematically dismantled each expensive Russian air defense system.

Russia’s limited number of air defense missiles—less than a hundred—must not only defend Crimea but also major cities, critical military targets, energy infrastructure, and transportation facilities across its vast territory. With the loss of these missile systems, Russia’s air superiority is further compromised. Especially with Ukraine now possessing a fleet of F-16s and the arrival of advanced European fighters like the Eurofighter Typhoon and Dassault Rafale, Russia’s advantage in ground forces and equipment is diminishing rapidly. The situation in Crimea remains precarious, and if the bridge connecting it to the mainland is destroyed, the peninsula’s security will be severely compromised.

Ukraine’s upcoming summer offensive will likely focus on Crimea, the epicenter of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Black Sea Fleet, which Russia relied upon for defending Crimea, has already suffered damage and withdrawal. With the air defense system significantly depleted, the destruction of the Kerch Strait Bridge would cut off critical supplies, leaving Crimea vulnerable.