After promising to provide Ukraine with some second-hand air defense missiles, Trump abruptly reneged again, citing urgent needs in the Middle East as a reason to delay arms supplies to Ukraine. This has left Zelenskyy in a highly passive position in the face of Russia's summer offensive. Currently, Russian forces have concentrated over ten divisions, totaling 110,000 troops, in Krasnoarmeysk, attempting to break through and capture the city to reverse their faltering momentum.
As Putin's lackey, Trump is naturally cooperating fully, ostensibly to force Ukraine back to the negotiating table, but in reality, to assist Russia in occupying Ukraine, annexing the four eastern regions and Crimea, and ensuring Ukraine does not join NATO or the EU. The war has now lasted over three years, with Russia facing opposition from the entire NATO alliance and more than 60 countries combined. Although Ukraine has not officially joined NATO, the difference is negligible. From a frail army of just over 100,000 at the war’s outset, Ukraine has grown into Europe’s, and perhaps the world’s, most battle-hardened force of a million soldiers.
As long as it receives military aid from the West, Ukraine can continue fighting indefinitely. Although Russia still occupies 20% of Ukrainian territory and holds a slight military advantage, Ukrainian morale is low, desertions are severe, and the army continues to face equipment shortages. Nevertheless, Ukraine has managed to hold the line against Russia, launching special operations that inflict heavy damage on Russian military equipment, energy infrastructure, and strategic facilities. In contrast, Russia has suffered over a million casualties, with significant depletion of Soviet-inherited equipment.
Its forces also face low morale and exhaustion, making it increasingly unsustainable. The battlefield remains a stalemate, with neither side able to decisively defeat the other or gain a strategic advantage to turn the tide. This war has become a test of endurance, a question of who can outlast the other. As Putin ages and his control weakens, Russia’s economic strength, military equipment, and war resources will eventually be exhausted, bringing the conflict to an end. As long as Putin remains in power, he will prolong the war, for if the Russian army stops fighting and withdraws, it could become uncontrollable, potentially leading to a coup, as seen in historical precedents like World War I. Russia is not the superpower the Soviet Union once was; its military capabilities are limited, and its economy is only on par with mid-tier European nations.
Though Russia’s vast territory spans millions of square kilometers, only the 3 million square kilometers in its European part are suitable for development. With a population of 140 million—far larger than Ukraine’s 20 million—Russia can mobilize around 3 million for combat, but over a million have already been lost. Moreover, the Russian military’s capabilities are outdated, relying on World War II-style attrition tactics, which are ineffective against the advanced technological equipment supplied by the West. This is essentially a war between two different eras. Even with Trump’s covert support pressuring Ukraine into submission and signing agreements to cede territory and pay reparations, as long as Ukraine maintains its military strength, the war could reignite after Trump leaves office and Putin retires. Once Trump’s term ends, his controversial actions will likely lead to a reckoning, and NATO will inevitably return to its previous stance of suppressing Russia.
Putin’s health has been deteriorating since the war began, and even if he holds on for a few more years, his time is limited. This is his personal war, his final gamble on the promise of Russia’s great revival. But after him, both he and Russia as we know it may cease to exist. Zelenskyy, on the other hand, is still young, even without a suit. His repeated appearances in military attire during meetings with Trump were meant to convey that Ukraine is in dire straits, that he has just come from the battlefield, and that U.S. military aid is a given. He came to apply pressure, but the reality is the opposite: Trump, a Russian asset who rose to power through the Russia scandal, is intent on suppressing Ukraine. Even if Zelenskyy reluctantly dons a suit, Trump will still undermine Ukraine. In the current situation, the worst-case scenario for Zelenskyy might be to accept some of the conditions imposed by the U.S. and Russia, trading territory for peace, which is not entirely unacceptable.
By outlasting the authoritarian regimes of the U.S. and
Russia, strengthening its military, building up resources, and implementing
domestic reforms, Ukraine will ultimately prevail. The war can always be
restarted in the future. Thus, the current strategy of fighting while
negotiating, combining military and political struggles, is also a means to
achieve military victory. Fighting paves the way for talks, and if talks fail,
the fighting can resume. A ceasefire is not entirely unacceptable, and a suit is
not something that must always be worn!
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