Russia can be attacked by Ukraine without restrictions and no receipt

 

Several Western countries have lifted restrictions on using weapons against Russia's mainland. Although the United States has proposed certain conditions, it has indirectly relaxed restrictions on Ukraine using weapons. Almost simultaneously, Ukrainian forces have utilized advanced Western weaponry to launch attacks on Russian mainland, leading to the collapse of Russia's so-called "Kharkiv Offensive." 

As the second largest city closest to the north of Russia, Russian forces have gathered firepower to initiate an attack on Kharkiv. Previously, due to restrictions on using weapons, Ukraine could not utilize Western weaponry to attack Russian mainland, resulting in a passive defensive situation. Moreover, with inadequate ammunition supply, the defense forces were struggling. However, the situation has completely changed now.

Ukrainian forces have transitioned from a passive state to actively using advanced Western weapons for offensive operations. With the deployment of F-16s, Russia, which already lacked superiority in the air and intelligence, will now face even more challenges. Large-scale ground offensives leveraging armor advantages will be thwarted, and troop concentrations conducting localized trench warfare will be targeted by air power. 

Particularly, with NATO countries led by France deploying ground forces for combat, even though they have not directly engaged in fighting against Russia yet, the scale of subsequent forces will continue to increase. While they may initially focus on defensive, support, training, and logistical roles, direct combat is inevitable. In fact, Poland and the Baltic States are already preparing for direct involvement, and Russia lacks the capability to prevent Western countries from joining the conflict. Just as Russia can attack Ukraine using weapons and ammunition from North Korea and Iran, the West can retaliate in kind.

While Russia may deploy mercenaries from abroad to attack Ukraine, Western countries can directly send troops into combat. In fact, Western military forces have been deeply involved in the Russia-Ukraine war under various pretexts. The start of Ukraine's summer offensive is clearly marked by the arrival of F-16s to execute combat missions. The nearly one hundred F-16s currently present are just the beginning, with additional NATO aircraft like Typhoons, Rafales, and F-15s gradually joining the fray, and supposedly retired Western pilots directly engaging in combat. 

Given Ukraine's current shortage of pilots, it is impractical to rapidly train their air force to operate advanced Western fighter jets. Thus, the ultimate development will likely involve direct NATO air force participation in combat, rendering the current training of Ukrainian pilots merely a formality. The primary goal of Ukraine's summer offensive is Crimea, the root cause of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Historical involvement in Crimea includes the UK, France, and Germany, and history appears to be repeating itself.

Once Ukraine establishes air superiority, the nature of the conflict will fundamentally change. As NATO's direct involvement deepens and with ample ammunition and reinforcements alongside advanced weaponry, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is poised to enter a new phase. Currently, the only concern for the West is the attitude of the only neighboring major power on which Russia relies. Whether this country ultimately deploys troops directly into the conflict remains uncertain. If the situation escalates to this point, a world war may become difficult to avoid. 

However, this is a matter of extreme concern for the country's leadership, as authorizing military action and potentially losing control over the troops could pose a significant threat to the regime. The direction in which armed forces are pointed is not easily controlled by those in power. Moreover, with recent crackdowns and extreme shifts in domestic and foreign policies, unpredictable changes are likely to occur once hostilities begin.