TOROTAN トロたん

 

The big leader said to Putin " conduct yourself well and farewell"

 

The Chinese leaders visited Russia to start the so-called "peace trip". In fact, it was nothing more than expressing their support for Russia's confrontation with Europe and the United States. The two sides signed a series of agreements related to energy, food, commerce, high-tech products, etc. There was no cooperation agreement reached in the military. Although secretly limited cooperation has been carried out through third-party manufacturers, such as chips, satellite images, individual combat rations, drones, etc., China continues to support Russia through various means, but the overall scale is limited and it is not comprehensive cooperation. Putin has been the leader of Sino-Russian relations for many years. He is very good at using the relationship between the two countries to gain political, economic and diplomatic interests. He himself is very disgusted with neighboring countries. The platforms are all at the cost of energy contracts worth hundreds of billions of dollars.

 

The former Chinese side also adopted a very indifferent wait-and-see attitude towards Putin. It is impossible to talk about so-called comprehensive cooperation with Russia, and it will never be considered that China and Russia jointly offend the West. Due to personal likes and dislikes, the main purpose of adopting a "one-sided" policy in the past was not so much to unite Russia and oppose the United States as to maintain personal rule. Because China's foreign relations in the era of rivers and lakes were entirely based on the integration of interests supported by Europe and the United States. Without international confrontation against the United States, the return of the former regime would inevitably have a fatal impact on the current rule. Therefore, the trade war launched by Trump is not so much a separation of the West from China as an active decoupling of China from Europe and the United States. As long as this regime can be maintained, Korean family rule is an inevitable choice. Economic depression and livelihood difficulties are not considered. It is the best soil for totalitarian rule.

 

Supporting Putin's visit to Russia is a response to Biden's visit to Ukraine, and it is actually meaningless to promote peace between Russia and Ukraine. The essence of this posture of the two countries confronting the West can only show one thing, that is, the war cannot end in a short period of time and will last for a long time. The economic and trade cooperation adopted by China provides Russia with part of the funds to maintain the war, while Russia exchanges energy and food. In fact, this is just the deepening of economic and trade cooperation between the two sides over the years, without any substantive in-depth progress. On the contrary, if China can take the initiative to express its military cooperation, then even the assistance of large-caliber artillery shells will solve Russia's urgent need. For China, it is not a problem to provide military aid, but the problem is how long the war can last according to the decline shown by Russia on the battlefield? How long can President Putin last? Is he running for the presidential election next year? Can he run for re-election? The comprehensive ability of the Russian army on the battlefield is low, whether it is from equipment to combat effectiveness, from morale to battlefield management, from intelligence to logistics supplies, etc., it is far from its status as the second largest military power in the world.

 

Recently, it has developed to the point where T-55 tanks are pulled out of abandoned warehouses for repair and sent to the front line, because the old T-62 tanks are almost consumed. Casualties in more than one year since the start of the war are conservatively estimated at 200,000, and the initial invasion of Ukraine was 20 divisions. The advanced ground armor weapons provided by Europe and the United States to aid Ukraine are already in place, and a major counteroffensive will soon be launched. The armed forces for air superiority are also being assembled, and they are still sticking to ground warfare. The purpose is to consume the personnel and equipment of the Russian army. In the final analysis, it is deliberately delaying time. As for the so-called nuclear button, anyone who dares to activate it will face retaliation. The United States has a strategic missile defense system and Russia does not. Rather than saying that NATO expanded eastward to suppress Russia, it is better to say that after World War II, the Soviet Union moved westward and returned to the original point. Although President Putin is still strong, he still has the ability to pull China into the water, but the question now is that more than half of the military equipment and personnel have been consumed in more than a year, and what will happen if the war drags on for another year.

 

This is also the reason why China does not dare to propose all-round military cooperation and assistance. The precondition for the so-called protracted war between Russia and Ukraine is that the Russian army is still able to fight. And this is currently the biggest uncertain factor. Putin will win the election next year, because there is no one who is willing to take over his mess, and he has recently become a war criminal at the International Tribunal in The Hague. China's current so-called support is nothing more than a political show, not to mention that the Russo-Ukraine war has dragged the entire West into the quagmire of war. The longer the war goes on, the better it will be for China. Whether it is the so-called axis of evil or centralized dictatorship, the current international situation has developed into a confrontation between two major forces, which in itself shows that the moment of final resolution has finally arrived, and it is right in front of us.

領導對普京說“下定決心不怕犧牲頂住，我先撤了”

 

強國領導人訪問俄羅斯展開所謂“和平之旅”，其實無非是表態支持俄國對抗歐美，雙方簽署了一系列涉及能源，糧食，商貿，高科技產品等的協定，在軍事並沒有任何合作協定達成。雖然暗中有限度的合作通過協力廠商一直在進行，晶片，衛星圖片，單兵作戰口糧，無人機等，強國不斷通過各種手段支持俄羅斯，但整體來講規模有限談不上全面合作。普京多年來都是中俄關係的主導者，非常善於利用兩國關係撈取政經外交利益，而他本人對鄰國非常厭惡，無論是近期的冬奧會還是早年的抗戰紀念等，各種場合的月臺都是以數千億美金的能源合同作為代價。

 

而強國在前朝對普京也採取非常冷淡的觀望態度，與俄羅斯所謂的全面合作根本談不上，也絕不會考慮中俄聯手而得罪西方。現在由於個人好惡而採取當年的的“一面倒”政策，最主要目的與其說是聯俄反美，還不如是維護個人統治。因為江湖時代的中國對外關係，完全是在歐美扶持下的利益勾兌。如果不反美搞國際對抗則前朝勢力回歸，必然是對當今執政產生致命影響。因此特朗普發動的貿易戰與其說是西方與中國搞切割，不如說現在中國與歐美主動脫鉤。只要能夠維護政權，朝鮮化的家族統治本就是必然之選，經濟凋敝民生困苦之類並不在考量的範圍之內，被切割孤立圍堵越厲害最好，就是要獨立在國際社會之外，這才是極權統治所需的最佳土壤。

 

支持普京到訪俄羅斯是針對拜登訪問烏克蘭的回應，實際上對於促成俄烏和平毫無意義可言。這種兩國對抗西方的姿態實質只能說明一點，就是戰爭短時間內不可能結束將會長期化。強國通過的經貿合作為俄羅斯提供維持戰爭的部份資金，而俄羅斯則以能源和糧食作為交換。這其實只是雙方多年來經貿合作的深化，談不上有任何實質上的深層次進展。相反如果強國能夠主動表態軍事合作，那麼哪怕就是援助大口徑炮彈，對俄羅斯都是解了燃眉之急。對於強國來講提供軍事援助不成問題，而問題是按照俄羅斯在戰場上表現出來的頹勢，戰爭究竟還能打多久？普總還能撐多久？明年總統大選是否參選？能否競選連任？俄軍在戰場上綜合表現出來的能力低下，無論從裝備到戰鬥力，從士氣到戰場管理，從情報到後勤補給等等，與其世界第二軍事強國地位相差甚遠。

 

最近已經發展到將T-55坦克從廢棄倉庫里拉出來修理後送往前線的地步，因為老舊的T-62坦克也已經消耗得差不多了。開戰至今1年多傷亡保守估計20萬，入侵烏克蘭最初也就是20個師。歐美援助烏克蘭的先進地面裝甲武器已經到位，不久就將展開大反攻。空中優勢武裝力量也在集結，現在仍然拘泥於地面戰，目的就是消耗俄軍的人員和裝備，說到底就是故意拖延時間。至於所謂核武按鈕只要敢於啟動必遭報復。美國有戰略導彈防禦系統俄羅斯沒有。現在與其說是北約東擴打壓俄羅斯，還不如說是二戰後蘇聯西進後回到原點。普總雖依然強勢居然還有能力將強國拉入水，但現在的問題是1年多時間已經消耗掉了過半的軍事裝備和人員，戰爭再拖1年的情形會如何。

 

這也是強國不敢提出全方位的軍事合作和援助的原因，所謂俄烏戰爭長期化的先決條件是俄軍還有能力打下去。而這一點目前是最大的不確定因素，普京明年參選還會贏，因為沒有願意接他的爛攤子，況且最近還成了海牙國際法庭的戰犯。強國現在的所謂支持無非是一場政治秀，何況俄烏戰爭將整個西方拖入戰爭泥潭，戰爭進行得越久對強國越有利。所謂邪惡軸心也好集權獨裁也罷，現在的國際形勢發展到兩大勢力的爭鋒相對，這本身就說明見最後分曉的時刻總算來臨了，而且就在眼前。

Biden just left Ukrainian Putin 's dumpling old friend wants to visit Russia to drug him

 

The Russo-Ukraine war is as expected throughout the winter, and the two sides will not launch strategic military operations. Now the focus are nothing more than the final outcome of the Bakhmut offensive and defensive battle and whether the leader of neighboring country will visit Russia in the near future to express support. In Bakhmut, a small town of 70,000 people, the Russia used the Wagner mercenaries with the strongest combat effectiveness, but they have not defeated enemies for more than 7 months, with serious casualties. Even if they can win now, it shows that the Russian army's ability is low. What's more, the Ukrainian army still keeps the western line of the city. But Wagner's army is already at the end of its strength. Not only have they been complaining about the lack of ammunition recently, but even the prisoners recruited from the prison have been exhausted. 

Although Wagner is constantly replenishing, the scale is only about 2-3 divisions. If one's own troops quantities do not have an absolute advantage in the battle of tight defensive urban positions, it is difficult to make progress as a whole, even if one regiment Russian is consumed every day. Zelensky decided to fight until the last minute. His purpose was simply to gain time to destroy the enemy as much as possible before the arrival of the spring offensive, and to directly destroy the coming powerful Russian army, instead of defensing other cities. In fact, the excessive consumption of the Russian army regardless of the cost has intensified the direct conflict between the Wagner Group and the Russian army. The final result was that Putin did not want to offend the military, and his support for Wagner began becoming weaken. Now, even if the Ukrainian army withdraws from the area, the strategic goal has been achieved, but the Russian army's  losses are difficult to bear. 

The big leader's visit to Russia is the news released by the Russian side. From the perspective of the situation, it is actually a response to Biden's visit to Ukraine.  If China does not support Russia, its promise of unlimited cooperation will be voided. Once again, "one-sided" will inevitably receive sanctions from Europe and the United States. Therefore, in desperation, a 12-point peace agreement was made. Objectively speaking, the relationship between China and Russia, and Ukraine, is good.  If Russia quickly annexes Ukraine, China can take Taiwan as an example. If it fails, China will only verbally support it and not participate in it. If it is a stalemate, the interests will be greater. 

If Russia can hold back Europe and the United States, the suppression China has suffered from the West in recent years can be alleviated, and the pace of decoupling will also slow down. On the contrary, if Russia is defeated, Western countries will go all out to deal with China. No matter how strong the leadership is, they will face the suppression of the entire Western world. Once the contradictions intensify and rise to the military level, the result will be unpredictable. It may be possible to return to the form of the Mao era, but it is practically impossible because the times are different after all. 

The biggest question now is how long Russia can last. With the overall military advantages of Europe and the United States and Russia's weak combat capabilities, failure is a matter of time. Russia does not have the military strength and capabilities of the former Soviet Union. China now has many choices: one is to provide direct assistance, the other is to let him die, but the first option is tantamount to directly participating in the war. The second option amounts to cooperation with the West. China’s resistance to U.S. aggression and aid to Russia will undoubtedly change the war situation. China can provide unlimited quantities of all the armaments that Russia urgently needs, from drones to large-caliber artillery shells, from tanks to satellite intelligence, from medical equipment to individual rations, etc., and even Sending troops to directly participate in the war, if China directly participates, the war will definitely last for a long time, and China also be dragged into it. 

Therefore, another option, which is to oppose covert assistance on the surface, but do it secretly, and then use this as a bargaining chip to start negotiations with the West. In fact, such a huge war consumption will be difficult for the West to bear, so there are basic conditions for blending. In this way, if the Russian side loses, to the Chinese side, the negotiation is reached. It will be more beneficial to prolong the war. If the Russian side wins China became the biggest supporter behind the scenes. If China just secretly aiding and not using it for exchange, it can only be dragged in the war finally. 

But the problem now is how long the Russian army can last. Even without considering the military assistance and equipment advantages of the West, the performance of the Russian army itself on the battlefield is extremely low. It is very difficult for this kind of army to win. The future trend of the Russia-Uzbekistan war is relatively clear, the Russian army will undoubtedly lose by time. If the big neighboring county provides comprehensive assistance will make the war to be worsen and, covert assistance will prolong the war and, limited assistance will force the war becoming complicated. Of course no assistance will let the war end early.

拜登現身烏克蘭大領導欲訪俄羅斯給老朋友下藥

 

俄烏戰爭正如之前所預料在整個冬季，雙方不會展開戰略性的軍事行動，現在的看點無非是巴赫穆特攻防戰的最後結局，鄰國大領導是否會近期訪俄表態支持。巴赫穆特7萬人小城俄軍動用戰鬥力最強的瓦格納雇傭軍，居然7個多月都沒打下來還死傷嚴重，即便現在能夠取得勝利也說明俄軍能力低下。況且烏軍現在還是保住了該城市內的西部防線。但瓦格納部隊也已經是強弩之末，最近不但不斷抱怨彈藥不足，甚至連從監獄招募的囚犯士兵都消耗殆盡。

 

瓦格納雖然不斷整補但規模也就是2-3個師左右，打防守嚴密的城市攻堅陣地戰，如果己方兵力不占絕對優勢，就是如目前每天消耗1個團的兵力，整體上也難於取得進展。澤連斯基決定打到最後一分鐘，其目的很簡單在春季攻勢到來前，爭取時間儘量消滅敵人，直接在當地把送上門的俄軍打殘，何況還是俄軍戰鬥力最強的部隊。事實上俄軍這種不計代價的過度消耗，已經激化了瓦格納集團和俄軍的直接矛盾。最後的結果是普京不想得罪軍方的情況下，對瓦格納的支持開始產生動搖。現在，烏軍即便撤出該地戰略目的也已經達到，但對於俄軍則是騎虎難下，打下來己方的損失也難於負擔，相反則更加得不償失。

 

大領導訪俄是俄方放出來的消息，從情勢上看其實是針對拜登訪問烏克蘭的一種回應。中方對此也是騎虎難下，不支持俄方則合作無上限承諾作廢，再次“一面倒”必然收到歐美的制裁。因此，無奈之下搞出了一個12條和平協議，客觀說中方與俄烏雙方關係都不錯，如果還是前朝必定會採取嚴格的中立政策，而且還會傾向歐美的調停立場，但現在世易時移下明顯偏袒普京。俄羅斯如果迅速吞併烏克蘭則中方可效法拿下臺灣，如果失敗則中方無非口頭支持並未參與其中，打成膠著利益更大如同當年的反恐戰爭，美國與中方展開反恐合作，最後使得後者爭取到了難得的發展機遇和時間。

 

俄羅斯如能拖住歐美長期消耗，中方近年受到的西方打壓能夠得到緩解，甚至為了爭取中方保持克制，歐美還會與其展開利益交換，歐美切割式打壓的步伐也會放緩。相反俄方戰敗則歐美將會全力對付強國，任憑再強勢的領導面對整個西方世界的打壓，一旦矛盾激化上升至軍事層面結果難料。恢復到毛時代形式上也許可能，實質上毫無操作性可言畢竟時代不同了。

 

現在最大的問題是俄羅斯究竟還能撐多久，以歐美整體的軍事優勢和俄羅斯孱弱的作戰能力，失敗就是時間上的問題。俄羅斯沒有前蘇聯時代的軍事實力和能力。中方現在無非是四種選擇，一是直接援助，二是任其生死，三就是落井下石，四是陽奉陰違。第三種選擇對國家利益最大，第一種選擇無異於直接參戰。第二種選擇等同與西方合作。中方抗美援俄無疑會改變戰爭形勢，俄方急需的所有軍備中方都能無限量提供，從無人機到大口徑炮彈，從坦克到衛星情報，從醫療設備到單兵口糧等等，甚至是出兵直接參戰，中方如果直接投入則戰爭必定長期化，但如此己方也會被拖進去。

 

因此只能採取第四種方案，就是表面反對暗中援助，再以此為籌碼與西方展開談判暗中交換籌碼。西方其實非常顧忌中方對俄再次一面倒，如此巨大的戰爭消耗任憑西方也難於承受，如此就有了勾兌的基本條件。如此俄方打輸中方談判達成，戰爭長期化則更有利，俄方打贏中方是幕後最大支持者，無亂從哪個角度講都非常有利。如果只是暗中援助不利用其進行交換，最後只能被拖進去成為墊腳石。

 

但現在問題的關鍵在於俄軍到底還能撐多久，即便不考慮西方的軍事援助和裝備優勢，俄軍自身在戰場的表現也是極度低下，這種軍隊想要取得勝利是非常困難的。俄烏戰爭未來走勢相對清晰，任其發展俄軍必敗無疑，鄰國全面援助戰爭惡化，暗中援助戰爭長期化，有限援助戰爭複雜化，不援助戰爭明朗化。中方的正確取態是將俄羅斯當成棋子。