三上悠亜

 

三宮つばき

 

奥田咲

 

Trump's 24-hour ceasefire was changed to half a year, but Putin was not satisfied

 

Trump has signed a large number of executive orders since taking office, but the so-called 24-hour truce between Russia and Ukraine and the immediate imposition of punitive tariffs on China have not been implemented, but an increase of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico was announced immediately. China is said to be negotiating a 10% tariff increase on 1 February, much lower than Canada and Mexico, and claims to be visiting China within 100 days. Canada and Mexico account for about 30% of U.S. imports. If the same tariff is imposed on China immediately, more than half of U.S. imports will be priced higher, which is tantamount to stimulating U.S. inflation, and the price increase of imports will ultimately be borne by U.S. importers and consumers. Moreover, Trump hopes to use the pressure of the tariffs to force China to sell TikTok to his buddies in the short term, as well as to restricting the export of fentanyl. The tariffs on China will be surely imposed, but they will be used as a bargaining chip to keep up the pressure in exchange for greater benefits. 

 

Trump's idea of an immediate truce was later changed to within six months, but after speaking to both sides, it became clear that the previous idea was unrealistic. With the establishment of a buffer zone for European peacekeeping troops and verbal pressure from the U.S., a truce based on Trump's personal prestige is a fool's errand. Ukraine's only condition is to keep its territory intact, otherwise, even if it is pressured to stop the war now, it is inevitable that another war will break out in the future. Russia's situation is even more delicate. If there is an armistice, the troops must be withdrawn, but it will be difficult to protect the territories that have been invaded. In fact, all the wars were launched around Crimea, the purpose is to connect the four southeastern states and Crimea from land and sea into one, and then deploy military forces to the region, control Crimea as a sea port to Europe, the history of Russia's control of Crimea's purpose is this.

 

Russia is not capable of occupying the entire territory of Ukraine, the second largest country in Europe. After the failure of the Kiev raid, Russia did not deploy all its military forces in Ukraine, but consolidated the land it controlled in the border war that began in 2014, with the aim of maintaining its control over Crimea. Now hastily stop the war Ukraine is bound to ask for a withdrawal timetable, according to the current situation on the battlefield, Russia has degenerated from a strategic offensive into a mutual stalemate, although the tactical pressure by constantly launching a battle of the battlefield, but the Russian army has no ability to eliminate the Ukrainian army, and now the so-called offensive is only to maintain the war situation, with the long-term consumption of the Russian army, the decadence of the Russian army is obvious, as long as the withdrawal of the current military advantage will also be lost.

 

Moreover, without the support of the United States, Europe can also maintain the war independently, so the so-called armistice for Putin, neither to ensure that the occupied territories cannot maintain the status quo, so Russia is not willing to accept mediation in the short term. Zelensky as long as there is NATO support for how long the war lasts, it does not matter, in the military as long as continue to decrease the Russian war resources to combat, consume the Russian army's armaments and manpower, and expand second battlefields, with the time under the consumption, the Russian army is bound to be defeated undoubtedly. If it is about exchanging land for peace, then the NATO-backed wars of the past few years are meaningless. 

 

Trump in the case of mediation did not work by stopping aid to Ukraine in the form of 90 days, indirectly help Russia to pressure Ukraine, but the problem is that Europe will still continue to support Ukraine, and Russia in the military does not have the ability to obtain absolute advantage, the Biden administration has provided Ukraine in the military equipment quite complementary to cope with Trump's cut-off of military aid, so in the short term, Ukraine will not be affected by the impact. As for the follow-up, it depends on Trump's next move, and from a realistic point of view, he simply does not have a better solution. Moreover, the focus of his administration is still mainly on the domestic front, and he is unlikely to make any major shocking moves in the international arena until he has finished reorganizing the maladministration of the former government.

 

特朗普説好的24小時停戰改成半年現在怎麽沒動靜了

 

特朗普上臺後簽署了大量行政命令，但之前的所謂24小時俄烏停戰，對中國立刻施加懲罰性關稅沒有實行，但立刻公佈了對加拿大和墨西哥增收25%關稅。對中國據説正在商討2月1日加收10%的關稅，遠比加拿大和墨西哥為低，並且聲稱要在百日內訪華。加拿大和墨西哥的進口額約佔美國30%左右，如果對中國立刻徵收相同關稅，如此美國過半的進口商品將會價格上漲，如此等於刺激美國通脹，進口商品價格上升最後還是美國進口商和消費者負擔。因此目前在對鄰國立刻施壓的同時，保留與中國談判的餘地作爲緩衝，況且特朗普還希望利用關稅的壓力，迫使中國短期內出售Tiktok給他的好友，還有就是迫使對方承諾限制芬太尼的出口。對於中國的關稅一定會施加，但會利用其作爲籌碼不斷施壓來換取更大的利益，而且與過往的全面打壓不同將採取更有針對性的政策。

 

特朗普的立刻停戰，雖然後來改口在半年以內，但在與雙方通話後發現之前的説法根本不現實。設立緩衝區派駐歐洲維和部隊，美國袖手旁觀口頭施壓，憑藉特朗普的個人威望就能停戰是癡心妄想。烏克蘭的條件只有一個就是保持領土完整，否則即便現在迫於壓力停戰，今後再次爆發戰爭是必然的。俄國的處境更加微妙，如果停戰就必須撤兵，但如此侵略的領土將難以得到保障。其實所有的戰事都是圍繞著克裡米亞而展開，目的是將東南部4州和克裡米亞從海陸兩方面連成一體，然後將軍事力量部署到該地區，控制克裡米亞成爲通往歐洲的出海口，歷史上俄國控制克裡米亞的目的就是如此。

 

俄國沒有能力占領歐洲第二大國烏克蘭的全部國土，在之前的基輔突襲戰失敗以後，俄國並沒有將全部軍事力量在烏克蘭展開，而是鞏固從2014年開始的邊境戰爭所控制的土地，目的就是保持對克裡米亞的掌控。現在貿然停戰烏克蘭必然要求提出撤軍時間表，按照目前戰場的形勢，俄羅斯已從戰略進攻退化成相互僵持，雖然在戰術上通過不斷發動陣地戰施壓，但俄軍完全沒有消滅烏軍的能力，現在所謂的攻勢只是爲了維持戰局，隨著長期的消耗俄軍頹勢明顯，只要撤軍目前所謂的軍事優勢也會喪失。

況且沒有美國的支持歐洲也能獨立維持戰爭，因此所謂停戰對於普京來講，既不能確保侵佔的領土也不能維持現狀，因此俄國不願意在短期內接受調停。澤連斯基只要有北約的支持戰爭持續多久都無所謂，在軍事上只要不斷加大對俄羅斯戰爭資源的打擊，持續消耗俄軍的軍備和人力，持續擴大開闢第二戰場，隨著時間的推移俄軍消耗下必敗無疑，只要能夠滿足條件烏克蘭樂於接受調停，所謂條件無非是要麽撤軍歸還領土，要麽以維持現狀為前提加入北約。如果是用土地換取和平，那麽這幾年北約支持下的戰爭就毫無意義。

 

特朗普在調停不果的情況下通過停止對烏援助90天的形式，間接幫助俄羅斯對烏克蘭施壓，但問題是歐洲仍然會對烏克蘭繼續支持，而俄羅斯在軍事上也沒有取得絕對優勢的能力，拜登政府已在軍備上提供了烏克蘭相當的補充，用以應付特朗普的軍援斷絕，因此短期內烏克蘭受到的影響不大。至於後續則要看特朗普的下一步行動，從現實情況看他根本沒有更好的辦法。而且他施政的重心目前主要還是在國內，在重新梳理完前任政府所謂的施政不當之前，不可能在國際上有震撼性的大動作。

Moe Hirano 平野もえ

 

三上悠亜

 

晨曦杜鵑

 

Trump ending the Russian-Ukrainian war soon is a blind man feeling an elephant

 

With Trump's rise to power, the issue of a truce between Russia and Ukraine is imminent, from the initial bragging about a 24-hour solution, to now say that it is within half a year, if the war that has lasted for three years can be resolved just by his words, then the war would not have happened at all, the Russian-Ukrainian border conflict has lasted for ten years since 2014, and finally developed into a full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation. For Ukraine, the whole country has been destroyed, and now it has to risk losing 20% of its territory, accept the promise of permanent non-membership of NATO, and accept the so-called truce under the condition of losing its territory, which is unacceptable from any point of view.

 

NATO support Ukraine against Russia for 3 years, the Ukrainian army has developed into the world's most powerful military force, well-equipped, experienced, strong will to fight, tactics, as long as the war continues in Europe and the United States under the support of Russia is a long-term consumption will be defeated. Even if the war continues for a few more years, Putin's health will deteriorate as he gets older, and it will be impossible for this one-man war to continue. As long as the war fails Putin regime disintegration will inevitably lead to the disintegration of Russia, so the security problems in Europe for hundreds of years will be completely solved, for the global totalitarian forces, the collapse of Russia will also be a major blow, which will lead to a reshuffle of the global political forces. 

 

However, at present, under Trump's so-called mediation, he is actually using his personal power to force Ukraine to exchange land for peace, which ultimately leads to the result that Russia, through the armistice, once again gained territorial benefits from its aggression, and from Chechnya, Georgia, South Ossetia, and Crimea to the four southeastern states of Ukraine, the power of Russia continues to expand, and the great renaissance of Russia that Vladimir Putin has promised is gradually being realised. Now contributing to all this is not Putin but Trump, Russia because of years of war has become the international focus on the isolated target, now the only way to save Russia is the new U.S. President Trump. He was through Putin's secret support, cold defeat Hillary was elected president, Russia has all the evidence, which is the so-called ‘Russiagate’ origin. So now he must help Putin get out of the dilemma, at least in the next four years to ensure his rule. 

 

The question is whether Trump has the ability to easily bring about a truce, that is, to force Ukraine to accept the terms of the truce, so that Russia can stop its military operations, the European countries to send troops to maintain peace, and the US to stand by and watch, and then the war will be over! The EU countries have already said that even if they lose the support of the US, they will still assist Ukraine to fight against Russia independently, and Ukraine will never accept the negotiation terms of losing its territory. Even if the so-called truce is realised, there is no guarantee that the two countries will not exchange fire in the future, and Russia cannot even guarantee the most basic withdrawal of troops. If not, the military confrontation will continue; if not, then Ukraine may tear up the agreement and start a defensive war to recover its territory, which will lead to a worsening of the war. The root cause of the Russian-Ukrainian war is the territorial issue. Ukraine can promise to permanently give up its membership in NATO, but Russia will never give up the Ukrainian territories it has obtained, so the basic conditions for negotiation between the two sides cannot be met. 

 

Trump's use of brute force could force a short-term ceasefire between the two sides, but long-term conflict will recur even after Trump completes his four-year term in office, and military conflict between the two sides is inevitable in the next few years. NATO was established to fight the Soviet Union, and played a huge role in the Cold War, and finally prevented the outbreak of hot war between the East and West camps, although in the 40 years after the Cold War, NATO entered a dormant period, but with Russia's external expansion, the past three years, NATO's military forces were able to re-activate the mechanism of the operation of the beginning of the return to normal, the fact is that after the Cold War, NATO's war machine although there is damage, but the function is still there. 

 

Trump can not support Ukraine, resulting in the internal fracture of NATO and the loss of some of its functions, but NATO as a military machine has an internal corrective function, once restarted any obstruction of its operation will be crushed, not to mention that it is now an amateur politicians, businessmen who failed, the clown of history, Trump, he once again moved into the White House on the day is the sniper's gun aimed at the time, and the subsequent bullet will be closer to his vital parts.

 

特朗普上臺后立馬結束俄烏戰爭是盲人綉花瞎逞能

 

隨著特朗普的上臺俄烏停戰問題迫在眉睫，從最初吹噓的24小時解決，到現在説是在半年內，如果持續3年的戰爭只憑他一句話就能解決，那戰爭根本就不會發生，俄烏邊境衝突從2014年開始持續了十年之久，最後才發展到俄國的全面入侵。對於烏克蘭來講整個國家已經被破壞，現在要冒著失去20%領土的風險，接受永久不加入北約的承諾，去接受喪失國土條件下的所謂停戰，無論從任何一個角度看都是難以接受的。

 

北約支持烏克蘭對抗俄國3年，烏克蘭軍隊已發展成了全球最有戰鬥力的軍事力量，裝備精良，經驗豐富，作戰意志頑強，戰術精妙，只要戰爭持續下去在歐美的支持下，俄羅斯被長期消耗下必敗。即便是再打幾年普京年事已高健康惡化，這場一個人的戰爭也不可能持續下去。只要戰爭失敗普京政權瓦解必然導致俄羅斯的解體，如此歐洲數百年來的安全問題將被徹底解決，對於全球的極權勢力來講，俄羅斯的崩塌也將是重大打擊，從而導致全球政治勢力的重新洗牌。

 

然而，目前在特朗普所謂的調解下，實際上是利用個人勢力，逼迫烏克蘭以土地換取和平，最後導致的結果是俄羅斯通過停戰，再次因侵略得到了領土利益，從車臣，格魯吉亞，南奧塞締，克裡米亞到烏克蘭東南部四州，俄國勢力不斷膨脹，普京承諾的俄羅斯偉大復興逐步實現。現在促成這一切的不是普京而是特朗普，俄羅斯因多年的戰爭已經成爲被國際重點打擊的孤立對象，現在唯一能夠拯救俄羅斯的就是美國新任總統特朗普。他當年通過普京的暗中支持，爆冷擊敗希拉蕊當選了總統，俄羅斯掌握了全部證據，這也是所謂“通俄門”的由來。所以，現在他必定要幫助普京擺脫困境，至少在未來4年內保證他的統治。

 

問題是特朗普是否有能力輕而易舉促成停戰，就是迫使烏克蘭接受停戰條件，讓俄羅斯停止軍事行動，歐洲國家出兵維和，美國袖手旁觀，如此戰爭就結束了！歐盟國家已經表示即便失去美國支持，也會獨立援助烏克蘭對抗俄羅斯，烏克蘭也斷不會接受喪失國土的談判條件。即便實現所謂的停戰也不能保證兩國將來不會擦槍走火，俄羅斯甚至連最基本的撤軍都不能保證。不撤兵軍事對峙還將持續，撤兵則烏克蘭有可能撕毀協議，發動收復領土的衛國戰爭，如此將會導致戰爭惡化。俄烏戰爭的問題的根源就是領土問題，烏克蘭可以承諾永久放棄加入北約，但俄羅斯絕不會放棄得到的烏克蘭領土，如此雙方談判的基本條件都不能滿足。

 

特朗普利用蠻力可以迫使雙方短期停火，但是長期衝突即便是特朗普完成4年任期後還是會再次發生，況且未來幾年兩者的軍事衝突不可避免。北約的成立就是爲了對抗蘇聯，而且在冷戰中發揮了巨大作用，最後阻止了東西兩大陣營的熱戰爆發，雖然在冷戰後的40年北約進入休眠期，但隨著俄羅斯的對外擴張，過去3年北約軍事力量得以重新啓動，機制運轉開始恢復正常，事實上冷戰後北約戰爭機器雖有損壞但功能尚在。

特朗普可以通過不支援烏克蘭，導致北約內部分裂而喪失部份功能，但北約作爲軍事機器有內部糾錯功能，一旦重新開動任何阻擋其運作的力量都將會被碾碎，更而何況現在是一個業餘政客，失敗商人，歷史小丑特朗普，他再次入住白宮之日就是被狙擊槍瞄準之時，而且後續的子彈將一次比一次更接近他的致命部位。

三上悠亜