Trump Sending Troops to Iran to Nab Another Maduro is Overthinking

 

After Trump successfully captured Venezuela’s Maduro, he now faces large-scale domestic unrest in Iran. Both the Iranian people and the outside world are eagerly hoping that Trump will once again take action, with the U.S. military directly intervening in Iran’s internal affairs, capturing Khamenei, and ending the theocratic government. Although Trump has repeatedly posted statements pressuring the Iranian government, up to now he has not taken any substantive military action.

Venezuela is a coastal country with limited military strength. After years of infiltration, it poses no real military threat to the United States. Russia’s Putin, in order to reverse his battlefield decline, used Maduro as a bargaining chip with the U.S.—the so-called Russian colonel who accepted one dollar to betray Maduro’s whereabouts was in fact Russia providing intelligence to the U.S. Therefore, for America, the technically difficult operation of capturing Maduro had no obstacles; it was only a matter of execution. For the U.S., it was a guaranteed victory. Venezuela’s only potential threat, its air defense system, though aided by China and Russia, has long lacked operation, training, maintenance, and even basic combat readiness. Many systems were never powered on or connected, essentially abandoned. The Venezuelan military’s combat capability is low, lacking basic will to fight, and would likely stand aside in the face of a U.S. strike.

Iran’s situation is completely different. As a central leader in long-term confrontation with Israel, Iran fought a decade-long religious war with Iraq. With a land area of over one million square kilometers and a population exceeding 100 million, its regular army and auxiliary forces approach one million. Although its air power is weak, its ground forces have real strength, capable of guerrilla warfare and nationwide mobilization. The country possesses a complete military industry, able to produce everything from bayonets to ballistic missiles. Even after Israel’s overwhelming strikes against Iran’s nuclear program, Iran can retaliate with missiles and drones, nearly exhausting Israel’s air defense ammunition. The U.S., despite long-term deployments in the Middle East and Israel’s support, would need ground operations to truly eliminate Iran. If Iran launched a nationwide resistance, U.S.-Israeli forces would be insufficient and unprepared. The Iranian uprising is a sudden event, and its future trajectory is unpredictable.

Moreover, striking Iran would require Israeli participation, which would inflame anti-Israel sentiment across the Middle East, complicating the war’s nature and potentially turning it into a religious conflict. Khamenei’s theocratic government has controlled Iran for decades, with influence penetrating all levels of society. The unrest stems from economic hardship, but the deeper cause is years of sanctions led by the U.S. and the UN. Russia’s decline due to the Ukraine war limits its ability to support Iran, echoing the Maduro precedent. Putin abandoned Maduro, and may abandon Khamenei, in exchange for Trump’s support and concessions from Ukraine. China, as Iran and Venezuela’s largest financier, plays mainly an economic role, with limited political influence and little military capacity. Beyond diplomatic protests, China is essentially powerless.

Inside Iran, protesters demand the overthrow of Khamenei’s theocracy, even calling for the return of the Pahlavi dynasty. Ironically, it was the U.S. that orchestrated the fall of the Pahlavi monarchy, and Khomeini returned from America to establish the theocratic rule. The current unrest is still in its early stages, and its future is uncertain. Khamenei, relying on the military, has the ability to suppress protests. The people also have some capacity to resist, potentially paralyzing the state and toppling the government. Already, some Iranians have begun burning portraits of religious leaders, destroying Qurans, and toppling mosques, while the government responds with gunfire. Any theocratic dictatorship that still controls the military can suppress unrest, and mass killings of civilians remain an option. As long as the regime controls the situation in the short term, it can maintain governance and restore basic order.

As long as Iran’s situation remains unclear, the U.S. will not dare to deploy ground forces. At most, it might conduct selective airstrikes, likely led by Israel. As a businessman-president, Trump cares only about interests; the lives of the Iranian people are not his primary concern. Thus, his promises remain rhetorical, and a full-scale military campaign against Iran is essentially impossible.