CNN pointed out that Russian President Vladimir Putin has
previously said that the conflict in the Donbass in eastern Ukraine is
characterized as "genocide". Article 356, a criminal investigation
into the Ukrainian military's "shelling of civilians" in the Donbas
region since 2014, claims that Ukraine "has an apparent intention to wipe
out the population of Donbas". In August 2008, Russia also announced that
the Georgian government had carried out genocide on the civilians of South
Ossetia, and then launched a large-scale military intervention, which made
Europe and the United States worried that it would "repeated the old
tricks" as a reason to send troops to Ukraine.
The United States said that Russia planned to attack
Ukraine on the 16th. In the end, Putin took the initiative to withdraw troops
and claimed that no military action would be taken, and accused Ukraine of
causing trouble in the conflict area. Even if Ukraine fires some mortar shells,
it is in the domestic area and the number is limited. The purpose of Putin's
voluntary withdrawal is from a military point of view, since the attack plan
has been found to have lost its suddenness, it is natural to withdraw the
troops and re-select the timing. If Russia were to launch an offensive against
Ukraine, there would be no military problem at all.
There are only a few limited ways to attack Ukraine.
Occupy the entire territory to support the pro-Russian government; quickly
conquer the capital, Kiev, and negotiate with Europe and the United States.
Although it cannot be ruled out that Putin’s voluntary withdrawal of troops
this time is a secret deal to some extent between Europe and the United States,
at most it is to agree to the extension of Ukraine’s original plan to join
NATO. Putin's withdrawal of troops now is very beneficial, because the troops
can be mobilized to threaten Ukraine at any time. As long as the military
pressure is maintained, at least the international oil price remains high,
which will benefit Russia's energy exports a lot. The United States is
suffering from inflation and rising prices. Oil prices are under great
pressure, not to mention the mid-term elections and the worsening of the
epidemic.
The negotiations between Putin and Europe and the
United States are actually meaningless. At that time, Russia and Germany signed
an agreement on non-aggression. In the end, the alliance under the military
threat could be torn up at any time. Europe and the United States deal with
Russia nothing more than economic sanctions, and Putin is most concerned about
the impact on energy exports and the ruble. If military means are really used,
a quick solution has already been made, so it is still economical to delay it
until now. Threatening Ukraine certainly has political and diplomatic
interests, and it is now completely under Putin's control. Ukraine is caught
between Europe, the United States and Russia, and it is actually the party
whose interests suffer the most. If you join forcefully, you will be invaded.
If you don’t join, you will lose the opportunity. If Russia adopts the same
method in the future, it will be a long way to go to join EU and NATO.
Objectively speaking, if NATO is directly involved
in the military, Russia will not have the ability to fully resist, and NATO must
use air superiority to strike. Russia's old ground armored forces and tanks and
heavy artillery armored vehicles are also vulnerable. Even if NATO sends a
small number of troops directly to Ukraine, Putin will not dare use military
means to confront the entire NATO for a long time. South Ossetia, Crimea, etc.
are not comparable to Ukraine, because she has larger territory and strategic
position are important. If Putin succeeds in Ukraine, NATO’s eastward expansion
will be completely stopped. On the contrary, Russia can take the opportunity to
directly threaten Poland, which has already begun to deploy strategies Missile
defense system, and then other Eastern European ex-Warsaw Pact countries, so
the new Cold War has started in full swing. Directly facing Russia and USA’s
new "competitors" in recent years, the situation is passive under
pressure from both sides.
Europe and the United States now neither want Putin
to succeed, nor do they want direct war, and there is no time to mobilize
troops. Therefore, it must be a secret compromise to stabilize Putin, and then
buy time to strengthen Ukraine's military power. Objectively speaking, a
full-scale attack on Russia's military strength cannot afford the long-term
military consumption of NATO. The worst position right now is Ukraine. If
Europe and the United States continue to compromise under Putin's military
threats, Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO will not be possible for a long
time, at least during Putin's reign.
Moreover, if NATO agrees to Putin's conditions, it
is tantamount to giving up Ukraine and allowing the Russian threat to succeed.
Now Ukraine is completely at the mercy of others. If Ukraine thinks about its
own destiny, it is better to take military risks to force two sides have a direct conflict. Under the long-term military, political, economic and energy
consumption, Putin will be defeated certainly.
