Hitomi Aizawa

 

The epidemic is the last weight to crush mankind after the turn of the century

 

The method of controlling the epidemic to zero is also considered a last resort, and it is not clear about the global spread under the one country's personal leadership. It is better to simply shut down the city and collect passports without causing trouble outside. The recent hoarding of food, vegetables and daily necessities is actually for epidemic prevention. After all, the epidemic has begun to spread again. According to past experience, it repeats every two months. A little looser will inevitably cause the virus to spread again. Europe and the United States think that the vaccinations can be relaxed after being vaccinated. It is also silly that relying on continuous vaccinations alone cannot prevent the epidemic completely. Moreover, the virus itself is still undergoing constant mutation.  

Therefore, it should be said that a proper lockdown is necessary. The problem is that the supporting work during the period must be kept up, otherwise it will inevitably make it difficult to guarantee the basic lives of the people. This practice of coexisting with viruses is not worth promoting, because this epidemic may not have occurred in nature as in the past, and even now that the source is not clear, it is difficult to make effective targeted epidemic prevention measures. With the spread of the epidemic, the medical systems of all countries are difficult to load, and many countries are even in danger of being close to collapse. Therefore, the epidemic will not end in 1-2 years under optimistic estimates. This epidemic will also have a significant impact in human history. 

This is not only a problem of medical and health, disaster and epidemic prevention, but also has developed into a major issue of international politics, economy and diplomacy. From the trade war to the global plague, international relations have undergone tremendous changes in the past few years, and it has become a tit-for-tat confrontation between the two camps. As long as the epidemic continues, it will not be possible to achieve a comprehensive relation cut-off, and it will only produce a greater and deeper degree of dependence; as long as the epidemic continues, it will not be possible to complete the removal of a comprehensive industrial chain; as long as the epidemic continues, there will be no full-scale ideological war.  

As long as the epidemic continues, it is impossible to stop the blending and secret transactions among various forces; as long as the epidemic continues, the status quo of the division of labor and cooperation in the world economy cannot be changed; as long as the epidemic continues, the globalization pattern developed after the Cold War cannot be changed. It is impossible for the two major groups to engage in a full-scale confrontation. As long as the epidemic continues, the objective fact that the national strength of European and American countries continues to be weakened will not change; as long as the epidemic continues, the United States will not be able to use all its forces to fight against its opponents.  

Now that international politics, diplomacy, and economy have expanded to ideology, the final result of the so-called Murphy’s Law under many uncertain factors is a critical arrival, and an unforeseen worst result will definitely occur. The epidemic is the last weight to crush mankind after the turn of the century.

殲-40速度10馬赫作戰半徑覆蓋全球美國笑了

 

據多家媒體報導第六代戰機殲-40速度將達到殲20的5倍，殲20最大速度為2馬赫，而殲-40是殲20的5倍，就是10馬赫，音速的10倍。按照媒体的說法，殲20使用兩台渦扇10，速度就達到2.5馬赫，那殲-40就會達到驚人的12.5馬赫。

美國黑鳥偵察機使用衝壓發動機，最快能達到3.2馬赫，這是目前在大氣層內飛行的速度極限。美國的無人驗證機 X43在35,000米的高空曾達到9.7馬赫。殲-40不僅要超過 F-22黑鳥，還要超過世界紀錄。東風21飛彈只有8馬赫，東風175馬赫，導彈竟然比飛機慢。媒體稱殲-40能實現全天候作戰，作戰半徑覆蓋全球，赤道長度大概是40,000公里，殲-40作戰半徑達到20,000公里，搜狐的一篇報導提到，殲-40最大航程七千多公里，最大速度3.2馬赫，將在2021年首飛2025年服役。另一篇報導稱殲-40將會裝備電磁炮。

美國的無人驗證機 X43的所謂10馬赫，實際上是裝在飛彈上在飛行過程中再發射，飛彈早就超過音速了。安裝地磁炮解決不了能量的問題，因為要顧及飛行所需要的燃料，電磁炮的能量消耗非常高。特別是殲-20目前連超音速巡航都做不到。2021年首飛可能過於樂觀了，目前甚至殲-20還沒有完全量產。飛機本身與美國隱形戰機相比還是有很多不足之處的，因為安裝原本俄羅斯的發動機因此機動性能還是不錯的，但只能做到正面隱形不能達到全隱形的效果，不能超音速巡航，不能超視距攻擊，飛機複合材料比率低，體型過大不利隱形，航電設備與歐美相距甚遠，發動機落後等等。俄羅斯的AL-41發動機尚未出口，而且烏克蘭現在又停止了發動機的出口，所以飛機發動機問題解決成疑。

至於電磁炮現在放在軍艦上都沒有成功，目前只有美國進行了實體測試。沒有國家能夠在現階段安裝到飛機上。航程7千公里肯定需要空中加油，飛機本身攜帶油量是不可能的。至於媒體怎麼說無所謂，反正隱形飛機量產的目前只有美國，而且已經進入實戰以色列在中東多次運用。美國海空軍的裝備領先程度也不是其他國家短期內可以追趕上的，媒體上怎麼說都是非專業外人士的臆測而已。

 

The US boycott of the Winter Olympics is just like blue cheese

 

《The Washington Post》 columnist said that the US government will soon announce a diplomatic boycott of the Winter Olympics, but at the same time it will not affect the participation of national athletes. Although the administration has not made this technically, it has submitted a formal proposal to Biden, and he is expected to approve it before the end of November. 

Biden's current policy is to constantly give in to opponents, and recently removed media restrictions and restored the opponent's journalist visa. Due to his opponent's tough stance in recent years, he adopted a prudential policy after he came to power, verbally suppressing, actual concessions and constantly giving gifts. Although the establishment of a strategic partnership between the two countries after the Cold War is a basic national policy of the United States, and followed the path of common prosperity and has been sought after for many years. 

However, the relationship between the two countries has deteriorated due to the sudden change of the Trump policy, although the so-called trade war is aimed at Europe, Japan, Mexico and other countries, not just suppressing one country. In fact, if it were not for the radical diplomacy after the outbreak, Trump would actually be happy to see the end of the trade war, and he held a grand celebration, and believed that this was beneficial to his re-election campaign, and it was his major achievements. 

It is still too early to hope that the Republican Party will come to power in the next election, and it is even more wishful thinking that Trump will return as soon as possible. Biden's four-year tenure is still quite long. Just looking at his foreign policy against opponents, we know that criticizing him for Alzheimer's is too arbitrary. Continuous compromise and concessions are a means of mature politicians, and only full contact between the two sides will have an impact. Trump is not a professional politician but an amateur, and the same was true for his opponents at the time. 

And now the opponent is facing an experienced politician, and the United States will never give all its energy to the outside world until the epidemic has completely subsided. Penetration with competitors is also two-sided, and the influence of the United States is also huge for competitors. The opponent can use all the hidden power in the United States, and eventually even change the outcome of political choices. In fact, this can also happen in other countries, and the United States may be the most proficient country in the world. 

The deteriorating relations between the two countries under the Trump must be restored, and the first thing to do is to rebuild the channels of contact between the two sides. The US strategy is to continue to give gifts and compromises. The influence can only be exerted after full contact is restored. Under this policy, the so-called boycott of the Winter Olympics is nothing more than a formal previous promise not to change the rival's political status. Boycott is similar to the blue cheese, it is truly smell bad but the other side is eating this good.

Asami Kondou

 

制裁冬奧會無非是臭豆腐聞著臭吃著香

 

華郵專欄作家稱美國政府很快將宣佈外交抵制冬奧會，但同時不影響本國運動員參賽。雖然行政當局技術上還沒有最終做出這一決定，但已向拜登提交了正式建議，預計他會在11月底之前批准。俄羅斯現在國際上廣泛被打壓也包括參加個各項體育賽事，甚至連奧運會也是以個人名義參賽，然後打俄羅斯奧會的牌子。實際上所謂的抵制就是政府所有官員不參加運動員可以參加，現在疫情肆虐的情況下開運動會本來就引發不少問題，類似日本奧運會後爆發了大幅度的感染，直到最近才降下來。雖然冬奧會舉辦國是世界上防疫最嚴厲的國家，但是舉辦冬奧會勢必會引發境外輸入感染人數增加，最近就因為旅遊導致全國疫情惡化。

拜登現在的政策是在不斷給對手讓步，最近又把媒體限制取消，恢復了對方的記者簽證。由於對手近年的強硬姿態，拜登上臺後採取高舉輕放的政策，口頭打壓實際讓步且不斷送大禮，他的政策是對方不回應可以，美國利益輸送到對方不直接接觸都不行的地步。最近表示不打算改變對手現狀，能源污染方面進一步合作，貿易制裁也暫停了，恢復了電訊公司低端晶片的供應，企業女高管也無條件釋放了，在阿富汗甩鍋一般撤軍送裝備，留學生的簽證早就恢復等等，半年不到時間所做妥協之多，不但背棄了川普政府的所有政策，而且讓步力度之大，頻率之高，速度之快令人驚歎。 

雖然冷戰後的兩國合作建立戰略夥伴關係是美國基本國策，美國政經商華爾街與對方之間進行利益勾兌，走共同富裕的道路受到追捧歷經多年。但是在川普政府的突然轉變下兩國關係惡化，雖然所謂貿易戰是針對歐洲，日本，墨西哥等多國，而並非只是打壓一國。事實上如果不是疫情發生後的激進外交，川普實際上是樂於看到貿易戰結束的，並且他舉行了盛大的慶祝會，並且認為這對他當初的競選連任有利，而且是他之爭期間的重大成就。首階段的貿易談判所謂10%的關稅，當時已經透過貨幣貶值等手段消化掉了，甚至相當部份費用也是由美國貿易商支付。最後是由於對方的判斷失誤，在最後階段反悔才導致了貿易戰的進一步惡化。如果疫情不發生並且引發所謂的源頭之爭，應該說雙方的關係會很快回到往日的軌道中去。

川普之所以在競選之前突然發難，主要原因是他的經濟成就因為疫情短期內完全消失，而且國內經濟迅速惡化，源頭之爭將疫情壓力指向美方，而且當時幾乎無力控制疫情，醫療系統和物資面臨崩潰等，失業率大幅上升民生困苦，因此不得已才在競選最後階段，將矛頭直接指向競爭對手以尋求連任。應該說這種轉變非常突然，甚至沒有能夠拿出策略性的打壓方案，各種制裁都是川普的個人倉促決定，甚至在黨內都不能形成共識。拜登政府上臺是對手動用己方在美國鋪排經營多年全部潛藏力量的結果，當然美國選舉制度本身也是漏洞百出千瘡百孔。

現在寄希望於共和黨下屆選舉上臺言之尚早，川普儘快回歸更是一廂情願。拜登4年的任期還有相當長時間，就看他針對對手的外交政策，就知道批評他老年癡呆過於武斷了。不斷妥協讓步是成熟政治家的手段，只有雙方全面接觸才會產生影響力。川普不是專業的政治家而是業餘人士，而當時他的對手也是如此情況。而現在對手面對的是一位老練的政客，美國在疫情沒有徹底平息之前是絕對不會將精力全力對外的。與競爭對手之間的滲透也是雙方面的，美國的影響對於競爭者來講也是巨大的。對手可以在美國動用隱藏的全部力量，最後甚至改變政治選擇的結果。實際上這也可以在別的國家發生，而且美國可能是世界上最精於此道的國家。 

川普政府下惡化的兩國關係必須恢復，而首先要做的就是重建雙方的接觸管道，美國的策略就是不斷送大禮妥協。當全面接觸恢復後才能發揮影響力，在此政策下所謂抵制冬奧會之類，無非是為之前的不改變現狀的承諾，做些形式上打壓的動作而已。至於川普在競選最關鍵階段，他本人和家屬幕僚都感染病毒，最後他僥倖逃過一劫，這倒不是他運氣由多麼好，而且隱藏勢力只是想阻止他為競選造勢，但並不想直接解決問題。至於他4年後是否捲土重來，就看下次病毒或是其他東西，是否又會莫名其妙地自動找上他了。

Yukie Kawamura

 

Losing Taiwan, the United States will become a second-rate country

 

If the United States does not intervene, the rival's so-called grand cause of reunification of the motherland - Taiwan, will surely succeed. This is not entirely based on the absolute superiority of military power. Under the strategy of "no people left on the island", the war can be prolonged for a long time regardless of the cost. Moreover, the methods of warfare are varied.  As long as submarines and mines are used to cut off Taiwan’s energy input for three months, the island’s hidden political, economic, and military forces that have been active on the island for many years can operate in public. All sorts of over-limit means messed up, and finally the United Parties dispatched to clean up the mess. The comprehensive and ingenious means of penetration on the other side have been fully demonstrated in the civil war. Therefore, military means are nothing more than the help of political means. Without the intervention of the United States, the price paid is small, and even comprehensive military measures are not required. 

If the United States loses Taiwan, then the Western Pacific will have no power to stop its "rivals" from developing. After the opponent's reunification is completed, it will immediately support North Korea in launching a war to reunify the peninsula to merge South Korea, and then use the Korean peninsula and Taiwan as bases to infiltrate Japan. The United States needs to transfer its military power to East Asia. Even if the United States has more than one hundred military bases in Japan, it cannot do anything if it faces a long-term full-scale confrontation. In particular, both sides are the world’s largest economies and possess the world’s most powerful nuclear weapons. At the same time, "competitors" are bound to push military power to Southeast Asia without huge military price. The naval strength of the entire Southeast Asia is not as strong as the opponent's one fleet. Moreover, these countries lose the support of the United States, they will fall into the arms of "opponents" from all sides. 

Not to mention the fact that overseas Chinese control the lifeblood of Southeast Asia's economy. Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and other countries have close relations with the "big country". Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia have a high percentage of Chinese. In fact, even the Philippines has adopted a strategy of approaching "new power" in recent years. In the southwest, the United States has withdrawn troops from Afghanistan. In this way, Pakistan and Afghanistan are connected, and opponents can even penetrate into the Middle East through the Afghan alliance. If American forces are driven out of the Pacific, Russia will immediately take the opportunity to launch a military attack on Ukraine. There is no military obstacle to Russia's annexation of Ukraine, so NATO's further eastward expansion can be prevented. Then Russia will unite with its partners to redistribute its sphere of influence in Central Asia. 

Iran and Syria are allies, the Taliban in Afghanistan are powerful in the Middle East, and the Islamic State is the main anti-American force. As long as they have financial aid, they can form a common alliance. Europe has remained neutral in the new Cold War and has been slow to isolate itself from American competitors. If the United States declines, Europe will inevitably start all-round cooperation with American competitors. The economic integration of the two is difficult to separate, and all-round confrontation is simply not qualified. In this way, the United States was completely reduced to a second-rate country, with its own left-wing forces at the forefront, implementing a comprehensive and thorough socialist transformation, and becoming a country under the control of its opponents. 

The current government has shifted from full confrontation to partial confrontation, claiming that it is unwilling to change the status quo of its opponents, and has continued to make concessions to seek continued cooperation from the suspension of trade wars to the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, the cessation of tracing the source of the virus to the release of corporate female executives, etc. Originally, the so-called international politics is the transfer of interests and compromise under the control of various forces. With the tough attitude of its opponents, the United States has continued to make concessions, and internal forces have begun to surface and continue to cooperate, and have even developed to fully manipulate its own elections. The infiltration of interests over the years has made the United States from the Democratic Party, traditional leftists, various media, numerous technology companies, Wall Street financial capital, and most large corporations, secretly and indirectly controlled by competitors.  

If it were to start a sudden war now, the U.S. government would only at best condemn it verbally, and the formal sanctions would be a cutscene. It is obvious how impossible it is to protect Taiwan with all its strength. After the rise of new great powers, the developing countries of the third world in Africa, Asia, and the Latin America will all unite under the banner of the ideology of their opponents and strong capital, and the world structure will be completely changed. The United States has become a second-rate country that no one cares about and is despised.

The latest prediction of Indian child prodigy Anand can be guessed with common sense

Indian prodigy Abigia Anand has had many expectations about the overall situation of the world, the trend of the epidemic, and the global economic situation in the past. In a recent film, it was revealed that the world is about to face seven major disasters, including famine, pandemic, energy, power shortage, supply chain disruption, extreme weather and economic turmoil. The news of the famine caused widespread concern. Anand pointed out that this winter will be very cold. It is expected that there will be severe cold and heavy rain before May next year, spreading to Asia and Europe. From December 10 to May 2022, there may be famines in various countries around the world. People must prepare in advance. 

In addition, the film also mentioned that starting from the second week of December, the world epidemic may escalate. Countries with high vaccination rates such as the United Kingdom, the United States, Singapore and Israel may face high infection. On the economic front, the Indian prodigy pointed out that affected by the epidemic, the Indian stock market may expand the bubble, reminding investors to pay attention. In fact, these predictions can also be judged based on common sense. The epidemic is due to virus mutation that causes the vaccine to fail, and it will not disappear in the short term and may even worsen. Countries with high vaccination rates have relaxed supervision, which has led to the spread of mutant viruses. The current virus epidemic period is usually around 2 months. After the number of infections decreases, there will be a sudden increase in about 2 months. The famine is due to people being quarantined at the peak of the epidemic and food production is affected. Food-producing countries give priority to export control locally, resulting in insufficient international food supply. 

There are natural disasters every year, nothing more than their degree. Power shortage is actually an energy problem. Excessive emphasis on new energy has suppressed traditional energy. Energy production was affected during the epidemic. Now that the epidemic situation in various countries has eased, increasing demand and insufficient supply will naturally lead to price increases. The cost of power generation has increased due to man-made reasons. Due to insufficient power supply in the short term, energy problems will not occur under long-term supply balance. The supply chain was interrupted mainly because of poor logistics during the epidemic, and political struggles between major countries also affected imports and exports. In addition, the international freight industry was disrupted by the virus, leading to a substantial increase in transportation costs and a disconnection of logistics. In order to avoid the epidemic, production, logistics and sales have been suppressed in various countries, which will naturally cause various influences. 

The problem of famine has existed in developing countries for many years, and it is not a problem that only appears now. Anand's various predictions are accurate or inaccurate, such as predictions such as World War 2020. Anyway, he will continue to add. These bold words have brought him a lot of fans and YouTube revenue. The 12-year-old prophet began to predict Bitcoin, the virtual currency of politics, economy, and diplomacy. There should not be a similar statement in the Vedas.

 

Ikuni Hisamatsu

 

關于日本的十個古怪冷知識

 

1、日本小學生用不同顏色的帽子代表不同年紀，日本的綠帽子並沒有中國綠帽子的意思。

2、日本古代忍者能通過貓的瞳孔大小來判斷時間。

3、日本的啤酒罐上都有盲文，以便盲人不會將酒精飲料與軟飲料混淆。

 

4、研究者在日本中部地區發現。處於青春期的雌性日本獼猴會騎上熊梅花鹿。

5、日本浣熊在世界上非常出名，但浣熊並不是日本的本土物種。而是從其他國家引進的。並且浣熊在日本曾被歸屬於入侵物種，也曾對當地的生態系統造成了很大的影響。

 

6。日本有個大米的品牌叫做晴天霹靂。

 

7、日本的關東煮靈感來源於麻辣燙因為日本人不喜歡吃辣，所以就有了現在的關東。

8、你以為保險套只有白色透明的嗎？其實在日本還有印有卡通圖案、彩繪和生日快樂等字樣的安全套。

 

9。如果你有一口黑牙，在古代日本就是個美女。古代日本女性以染黑牙為美，而且大多都是貴族才會染，因為平民也染不起。

10、日本的死刑犯不會被提前告知他們的處決日期，他們每天醒來後都會懷疑今天可能是自己的最後一天。

 

印度向俄羅斯采購的S-400并非針對鄰國

 

據俄新社11月14日報導，在杜拜航空展開始之前，參加該航展的俄聯邦軍事技術合作總監德米特裡·蘇加耶夫對外宣佈說：「對印度出口的S-400防空系統正在按照計劃交付。」報導稱，俄羅斯和印度之間關於S-400防空系統的出口合同，早在2018年10月就已簽訂。印度方面購買的5套系統花費了新德里54.3億美元。S-400「凱旋」防空飛彈系統，（北約命名為SA-21 Growler，咆哮）是俄羅斯第三代地對空飛彈系統，用於從超低空到高空、近距離到超遠程的全空域對抗多目標空襲。採用四種專門飛彈，包括超遠程40N6（射程400公里）、遠程48N6E3（射程250公里）、中程9M96E2（射程120公里）、近程9M96E（射程40公里）飛彈，構成多層次防空屏障。可有效地打擊戰略和戰術飛機、彈道飛彈、高超音速目標，以及其它在電子對抗和其它條件下的空襲。

 

俄羅斯的最新防空系統是S-500而S-400多年前已經向其他國家出口。俄羅斯防空系統應該說常規戰爭環境下還是相當不錯，但是面對隱形飛機則毫無還手之力，以色列利用F-35和F-16配合幾乎在中東無敵手。敘利亞裝備了俄羅斯的包括S-400在內的多種防空導彈，結果幾乎成了靶子甚至不敢開機，米格-29被以色列打到要從俄羅斯補充數量的程度。況且此類的防空導彈面對無人機也沒有太大的作用。畢竟是上世紀開發的產品以當時的設計標準，就現在來講也談不上多先進。

印度是世界上少數對於軍備採購毫無限制的大國，問題是該國沒有建立獨立完整的工業體系，依賴外買武器的最後結果是分開看各種武器系統都很先進，但是綜合起來不成體系戰鬥力不強。光是維護保養都很難解決，真全面開戰下很難保證正常裝備運作，甚至彈藥都不能自給。印度斯坦公司保養的飛機幾乎都會墜毀，已經超過1千架還被飛行員告到法庭。印度的最新軍艦採用了俄羅斯，義大利，瑞典，法國，烏克蘭，美國等多國設備簡直就是萬國牌。由於和俄羅斯的長期軍事合作關係，因此印度對於俄羅斯的裝備幾乎來者不拒。

印度進口S-400也並非就是針對鄰國，因為本來就是在採購之列。之前緊急從法國採購的飛機才是對付鄰國的，並且居然還要向俄羅斯緊急採購步槍。兩國近期在邊境衝突不斷，但目的都是轉移國內疫情和政治壓力。山地作戰沒有太多戰略價值，而且7月份後逐漸進入秋冬期山裡根本待不住人，根本沒可能進行全面軍事衝突。之前還出現狼牙棒打鬥的情景，真打仗還用得著使用冷兵器。

Nana Asakawa

 

日本真子公主與老公飛抵紐約先要解決的是房租問題

 

小室真子14日上午8時10分左右，與丈夫小室圭從暫居的公寓出發，兩人隨後在8時45分抵達羽田機場。由於日本皇室成員沒有戶籍與護照，這次前往美國，不僅為真子脫離皇室後的新生活拉開序幕，也是她首次使用護照出國，她也在機場被目擊放下長發的模樣，一改往日梳包頭、穿套裝的形象，看起來十分休閒。

而經過長達13小時的飛行，真子與丈夫已在美東時間周日上午抵達紐約甘迺迪機場，她自行拖著行李箱，並搭上早已在機場外等候的車輛離去，一旁還有一名日本的安全人員和數名紐約員警。

根據《每日郵報》報導，真子與丈夫將入住一套位於曼哈頓中心地帶的豪華公寓，距離紐約市著名地標中央公園、林肯表演藝術中心很近，公寓附設設施包含健身中心、瑜珈室、圖書室、室內水療中心等等，1房每月租金約4809美元，2房則是每月7085美元。

回顧這場全球矚目的婚事，真子與小室圭在10月26日結婚，沒想到婚後沒幾天就傳出小室紐約律師考試中失利。對此，小室圭強調將會繼續努力念書準備明年2月重考。真子公主在日本來說也算是鳳毛麟角，與平民丈夫結婚很正常，離開皇室獨立生活算是首例。但是真子公主結婚單純靠丈夫收入生活，過傳統日本家庭主婦的生活是不可能的，日本皇室會通過各種方式補貼，所以根本可以不用考慮生活的問題。再加上皇室公主的身份，可以參加包括商業在內的各項活動，他丈夫的這點工資根本不算什麼。

小室圭因為家族特別是其母親的醜聞在日本備受壓力，面對各方面的質疑他一走了之，所以壓力都施加到真子公主身上。老實說事情發展到這步真子公主也別無選擇，要麼與小室分手但早有情愫下也覆水難收，要麼就是一條路走到底反正是自己的選擇。對於她來講在皇室內部本來地位不高，加之經常到海外學習也不存在海外生活的壓力。脫離皇室近年來已經成為潮流，不但可以脫離前者的管制，而且在生活和收入上也不會有任何影響，對於年輕人來講何樂而不為。

 

美國扔掉臺灣后會成為沒人要的二流國家

 

如果在美國不干預的情況下，所謂實現民族的統一大業是必然成功的，這不完全建立在絕對優勢的軍事力量前提下。“留島不留人”的戰略下，可以不計代價將戰爭長期化。況且所謂的戰爭手段多種多樣，並非需要在防守嚴密的臺灣西海岸尋找登陸點，只要用潛艇和水雷將臺灣能源輸入切斷3個月，再利用島內經營多年的政經軍商等潛伏勢力，發動各種超限手段製造混亂，最後由統戰派出面收拾殘局即可。對岸滲透手段之全面和高明，在內戰時已經可見一斑，現在就看國民黨，政商，教育，文化，媒體，演藝界等，有多少和對岸勾兌經年的名人就知道，紅色勢力在臺民間勢力之大更超乎想像。所以軍事手段無非是政治手段的輔助罷了，沒有美國的干涉解決臺灣問題，最多也就是3個月時間。而且所付出的代價很小，甚至不需要採取全面的軍事手段。

 

如果美國失去臺灣那麼在西太平洋上就沒有任何力量可以阻止競爭對手發展，接下來對臺灣的統一大業完成以後，會立刻支持朝鮮發動統一半島的戰爭將韓國合併，然後利用朝鮮半島和臺灣作為基地對日本滲透。相比美國需要將軍事力量從南半球移至東亞，競爭對手可以通過台韓經沖繩運送軍事力量到日本，即便美國在日有大小過百個軍事基地，如果全面對抗下也是無能為力。日本四島受地形所限，沒有外援很難支持長期戰爭。特別雙方都是世界最大經濟體，擁有核武軍事量世界最強的國家。與此同時對手必然將軍事勢力推向東南亞，同樣不需要付出所謂巨大的軍事代價，整個東南亞的海軍力量還不如對手的一個艦隊。而且這些國家歷來是經濟上靠攏前者，政治上依賴美國，但一旦失去依靠則會全方位投入對手懷抱。

且不說華僑本來就掌握東南亞經濟命脈，越南，緬甸，老撾，柬埔寨等國與其關係密切，新加坡，泰國，馬來西亞華人比例很高，整個東盟對其在經濟上極度依賴，投靠競爭對手是順理成章的事情，甚至菲律賓近年走的也是親近對手的策略。再看西南面美國已經撤出阿富汗，如此巴基斯坦和阿富汗連成一片，對手甚至可以通過阿富汗聯滲透中東。俄羅斯被打壓主要是受到吞併克裡米亞和烏克蘭的影響，如果美國勢力被逐出太平洋，則俄羅斯立刻會趁機配合競爭對手，展開對烏克蘭的軍事攻擊，俄烏東部軍事衝突中俄占絕對優勢的，吞併烏克蘭在軍事上不存在問題，如此可以阻止北約的進一步東擴。然後俄羅斯會聯合對手在中亞重新劃分勢力範圍，然後通過阿富汗滲透中東聯合伊朗敘利亞控制當地的能源。

伊朗和敘利亞本就是盟友，阿富汗塔利班在中東勢力廣大，伊斯蘭國本就是主要反美力量，只要在經濟上資助就能形成共同聯盟。歐洲本來就在新冷戰中保持中立，遲遲不願與競爭對手切割，如果美國衰落前者必然與競爭對手展開全方位合作，本來兩者在經濟上勾兌很深難于分割，全方位對抗根本不具備條件。如此，美國就得將全球霸主的地位拱手想讓，至此全球勢力重新劃分。所謂帶路計畫全面實施障礙已除，貨幣國際化數位化美元退出歷史舞臺，極端化意識形態得以全面輸出，人類的命運將進入歷史新階段。美國徹底淪為二流國家，本國的左派勢力走向前臺，實行全面徹底的社會主義改造，成為競爭對手控制下的國家。

就看本屆政府已經從全面對抗轉向局部對抗，聲稱不愿改變對手現狀，并且從暫停實施貿易戰到阿富汗撤軍，從停止追查病毒源頭到釋放企業女高管等，不斷做出讓步尋求繼續與對手和解。本來所謂國際政治就是各種勢力下操控下的利益輸送和妥協。對手態度強硬下美國不斷讓步，并且內部勢力開始浮出水面不斷配合，甚至發展到全面操縱本國選舉。多年的利益滲透使得美國從民主黨，傳統左派，各種媒體，黑命貴勢力，眾多科技公司，華爾街金融資本，多數大企業等，都被競爭對手背后暗中間接控制。如果是現在發動突然戰爭，美國政府最多就是口頭譴責，形式上制裁走個過場罷了，全力保護臺灣可能性有多大顯而易見。

大國崛起后非洲，亞洲，美洲的第三世界發展中國家，都會團結在對手意識形態和強權資本旗下，世界格局發生徹底改變。偉大的民族復興夢得以實現，人類歷史發展進入新紀元。

Yuka Ogura

 

注射莫德納立馬心肌炎歐洲多國停打

 

莫德納所引發的心肌炎爭端延燒，此前北歐各國暫停年輕人接種後，本周德國與法國也跟進。面臨著歐洲多國陸續暫停政策，莫德納週四按耐不住出面澄清，強調莫德納疫苗對重症及死亡率的保護力，遠高於心肌炎風險，而且接種後保護力要比輝瑞及其德國合作夥伴BioNTech疫苗優秀。莫德納醫療長保羅·布爾頓(Paul Burton)表示，30歲以下男性接種公司疫苗後引發心肌炎的風險不高，只是相較輝瑞疫苗要來得高而已。布爾頓援引法國12至29歲男性接種數據，結果顯示每10萬名接種莫德納疫苗的人有13.3起心肌炎案例，而輝瑞疫苗則是2.7例。

此外為證明疫苗防護力，布爾頓還引用美國疾病預防與控制中心(CDC)數據，說明接種莫德納疫苗後，罹患病毒的比例較施打輝瑞或強生疫苗的來得低。他說，每10萬名接種莫德納疫苗的人，只有86起突破感染案例，而輝瑞則有135例。值得關注的是，莫德納近幾周狀況不斷，先是心肌引發各國停打疫苗，影響美國食品藥品監管局(FDA)審核緊急使用授權(EUA)申請，後來第三季財報表現黯淡，輸給其競爭對手輝瑞，再加上日前爆出與美國國家衛生研究院(NIH)的疫苗專利糾紛，各種利空因素讓莫德納股價遭受打擊。

自9月底以來，莫德納股價已累積下跌近50%，特別是在11月4日與5日這兩日，輝瑞公佈其新冠口服藥驚人的有效數據後，莫德納股價分別下跌18%與17%。截至隔夜紐約收盤，莫德納(MRNA)在美股股價下挫1.37%；輝瑞(PFE)美股股價則上揚2.37%。反觀輝瑞目前的疫苗進展，輝瑞提交的最新研究成果顯示，逾1萬名成年人接種加強劑後的保護率可提升至95%，對所有人安全且有效，分析認為如當局批准為民眾接種第3劑，將能在之後接連的長假期為民眾帶來更好的保護。

目前全美國逾69%已接種輝瑞疫苗的成年人將符合接種加強劑的條件，但早前的研究顯示所有接種者的體內抗體都會隨時間而下降，故美國食品及藥物管理局早前已批准為免疫力較弱群體、如65歲或以上人士接種輝瑞疫苗作加強劑，截至當地時間週一，已有逾2500萬美國人完成接種3劑疫苗。有專家強調，已有越來越多證據顯示民眾有必要接種加強劑。

 

新航母即便有彈射還是鷹將老航母的靶子

美國國防部官方推特帳號在當地時間發出一張「尼米茲級」航空母艦「卡爾文森號（USS Carl Carl Vinson，CVN-70）」在南海演訓航行的鳥瞰圖，並問「你能數出多少飛機？（How many aircraft can you count?）」看到20多架F/A-18超級大黃蜂戰機、6架F-35C、若干架E-2D「先進鷹眼」預警機、CMV-22B旋翼機（V-22魚鷹美國海軍型號）和艦載直升機等。「卡爾文森號」是美軍中首艘可搭載F-35、CMV-22B的航空母艦。

對於這張照片《環球網》開罵，並且引述網友留言：「一架無人機或者一枚飛彈就足以對付這麼多飛機。這艘船很大但別忘了一根針就能刺破氣球。」有趣的是第三艘還有3-6個月的時間下水。戰略與國際研究中心稱，江南造船今年在這艘003型航母上穩步取得進展。該位於華盛頓的智庫補充說，衛星圖像顯示「該航母主要外部組件的安裝接近完成」。報告稱它能夠「發射載重更大、裝油更多的固定翼飛機，以及更大的飛機」。並且配備有彈射裝置，目前只有美國和法國的航母使用彈射器。

既然美國航母太大容易被攻擊本土的也一樣。即便是再不斷發展出新航母客觀上說也不能與美國相比。後者11艘航母都是核動力沒有能源限制，對手的都是傳統動力后面跟著油輪補給船航程有限，幾發導彈打掉後面的就可以了。艦載機就更不用談了J-15之類，不但是數量不足而且不堪一戰，甚至連航母飛行員都沒訓練出來，之前的航母起降都是花錢請的俄羅斯飛行員。至於日間起降，夜間起降，掛彈起降，複雜海況起降，戰備起降，飛行編隊，編隊戰術，機艦配合等等，數不清的科目都還沒有完成。之前巡航台海對岸F-16大批次夜間逼近，航母居然毫無反應，後來再次巡航發動機壞了，停在臺灣海峽開不了成了靶子。

最重要的是沒有發展出航母戰略，不似美國已經使用發展航母近百年了。在國際上有超過1千個軍事基地可以全球補給，人員，裝備，武器，彈藥，醫療，食品，飲用水，藥物，燃料等等，隨時可以就近補充，而對手國際上沒朋友第一島鏈都出不去只能近海巡航，驅逐艦能夠搞定的事情，沒有全球打擊的需要之下，弄幾艘航母不過是裝門面。況且還得面對美國無處不在的潛艇攻擊，特別是在本身反潛能力低下，對方靜音水準極高的攻擊核潛艇。

無人機上艦也就不去分析了，F-35隱形飛機與F-16的對抗顯示是1:200的換機率，以色列更是用其打遍中東無敵手。所有蘇式戰機防空武器雷達全滅，更何況是從前蘇聯發展而來的過氣航母。就說艦載機起飛遼寧的15分鐘起飛1架，對方1分鐘起飛2架降落1架。15分鐘可以起飛30多架，而對手3機編隊起飛要45分鐘，第3架還沒起來第1架沒油早返航了。3機編隊還沒起來對方已經攻擊多個波次航母早沉了。況且目前世界上還沒有有效防止隱形飛機的防空武器和雷達，更別提是艦載的防空裝備了。至於整體航母艦隊的實力更是天淵之別。不懂軍事的總是喜歡主席語錄優先，後者打完美國最後還得靠乒乓球把人家請回來。