Rafale crashes, China snickers, Modi dances, Trump goes nuts!

 

India’s nationwide celebration of a supposed victory over Pakistan’s terrorist forces has been called into question. Reports suggest that up to six Indian fighter jets were shot down, with one French-made Rafale and one Russian-made Su-30 confirmed by media sources. This India-Pakistan air battle involved aviation technology from China, India, Pakistan, France, Russia, and Israel, and it has been dubbed the first large-scale beyond-visual-range (BVR) air combat in human history, with 120 fighter jets from both sides engaged for over an hour. The Indian and Pakistani governments have responded differently: India vehemently denies the losses, seemingly deceiving its domestic audience, while Pakistan is suspected of exaggerating its achievements. However, India’s defeat in this air battle is now largely confirmed.

Looking at the entire conflict, it’s clear that Pakistan’s air force alone could not have achieved such a victory, including downing the Rafale, touted as a 4.5-generation fighter second only to the American F-35. The fingerprints of China are evident in every aspect of the operation, from strategic and tactical planning to weapon use and intelligence operations. Pakistan orchestrated the conflict by leveraging regional terrorist groups to provoke an incident, anticipating India’s retaliatory airstrikes. Pakistan then deployed early-warning aircraft and fighter jets along India’s likely approach routes, fully prepared for combat. When Indian jets entered the ambush zone, they were attacked from long range. Despite India’s numerical and technological superiority, their aircraft were locked on by Pakistani early-warning systems, leaving them defenseless against BVR attacks.

This wasn’t the first time terrorist activities in the Kashmir region sparked conflict. India had previously conducted retaliatory airstrikes, during which Pakistan’s air defense missiles failed to respond, allowing India’s surprise attacks to succeed. Emboldened by past successes, India underestimated Pakistan this time, assuming they could easily cross the border and strike. However, they found Pakistan fully prepared and waiting. India was forced to abandon its cross-border plans, resorting to launching cruise missiles from a distance to hit ground targets. Shockingly, the Rafale jets weren’t even equipped with Meteor missiles for medium-to-long-range combat. Pakistan, on the other hand, was ready for air combat, with early-warning aircraft guiding fighter jets to launch a salvo of medium-range air-to-air missiles, catching the Indian air force off guard. Pakistan’s JH-17, J-10CE, and early-warning aircraft worked in tandem, forming a cohesive system that outmaneuvered India’s uncoordinated forces. Despite India’s numerical and performance advantages, they suffered a crushing defeat. The French Rafale, considered the world’s best outside of stealth capabilities, and the Su-30, renowned for its close-range dogfighting prowess despite its poor performance in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, were shot down without even sighting their opponents.

China likely masterminded this India-Pakistan air battle, using it as a strategic move to gain leverage in the U.S.-China trade war. Recently, J.D. Vance, accompanied by his Indian-American family, visited India to express the U.S.’s stance on aligning with India to counter China. Known for his brash style and provocative rhetoric, Vance has consistently stirred controversy. His meeting with Zelenskyy sparked arguments, his encounter with the Pope led to a mysterious death, and his visit to Modi triggered this India-Pakistan air battle. Wherever he goes, chaos seems to follow. China, seeking a breakthrough in the trade war with the U.S., identified Pakistan as its most reliable ally to pressure India. India has long been a key pillar of Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China, making it an ideal target to disrupt Trump’s trade war tactics. Moreover, with the Russia-Ukraine war at a stalemate, China prefers Russia to remain in a state of neither winning nor losing decisively, diverting Western attention from China. In the Middle East, Israel has largely subdued Hamas, Iran is negotiating nuclear deals with the U.S., North Korea is bypassing China in its military cooperation with Russia, and ASEAN countries in the South China Sea need to be courted to counter the U.S. The Taiwan Strait involves U.S. and Japanese intervention, leaving Pakistan as China’s most controllable ally to act.

China not only orchestrated this air battle but likely had military personnel directly involved, choosing to fight within Pakistani territory to avoid escalation. From fighter jets to early-warning aircraft, from operational planning to execution, the battle reflected Chinese military philosophy: “Strike unexpectedly, attack the unprepared,” “Never fight an uncertain battle,” “Never fight an unprepared battle,” and “Lure the enemy deep and strike their reinforcements.” The likelihood of this air battle escalating into full-scale war between India and Pakistan is low, but limited military conflict is inevitable given the threat to India. This conflict will not be resolved through Trump’s mediation—he lacks the capability. Instead, China will likely pull back once its objectives are met. By keeping India pinned down, China ensures that if the conflict worsens, the U.S. cannot afford to ignore it, as it would destabilize the Indo-Pacific strategy. Yet Trump, known for prioritizing profit over war, will face pressure. If the U.S. doesn’t yield in the trade war, China will continue using Pakistan to exert military pressure on India. Trump, who has failed to mediate the Russia-Ukraine conflict, cannot afford to ignore India either. If India and Pakistan escalate to full-scale war alongside the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the U.S. will be stretched thin and forced to negotiate with China, as everyone knows who Pakistan’s true backer is.

As a result, Trump has made a 180-degree turn, conceding on tariffs with China. The air battle has also sparked interest among developing nations in Chinese aviation weapons. Affordable and effective, these weapons proved capable of downing French and Russian jets, an enticing prospect for cash-strapped countries with limited options. Trump’s aggressive return to power, with bold claims of suppressing China, has been met with China’s preparedness. Countless scholars, experts, think tanks, and AI systems have studied Trump thoroughly, anticipating and countering his moves before they even materialize. His strategies have largely failed, leaving him to resort to simplistic rhetoric to deceive his domestic “redneck” base.