The India-Pakistan
border conflict has become a hot topic, with self-media even claiming the
possibility of launching a ground war and triggering nuclear threats. India's
military strength is overall many times that of Pakistan. As a country with a
per capita GDP of less than $1,000, Pakistan is deeply tied to China through
the Belt and Road Initiative, burdened with heavy debt and on the brink of
bankruptcy, unable to sustain the pressure of a mid-to-long-term war. Its main
backer, China, is embroiled in a trade war, with a struggling domestic economy
and widespread hardship, focusing its primary efforts on supporting Russia.
Relying solely on Pakistan’s own strength, self-preservation is already a
challenge, let alone launching a full-scale war.
Both sides engaged in a
mid-range air battle along the border. It can be confirmed that 1-2 French
Rafale fighters were shot down. Pakistan claims 6-7 Indian aircraft, including
French Rafales, Russian Su-30s, and MiG-29s, were downed, but no solid evidence
has been provided. The so-called evidence presented is merely old news from
years past. The incident involved the Pakistani Air Force, guided by early
warning aircraft, locking onto Indian fighters and launching mid-range missiles
to shoot them down. The equipment used included Chinese-provided early warning
aircraft, export versions of the J-10C, and JH-7 fighters. Although the Indian
Air Force has advanced equipment from various countries, including early
warning aircraft, these systems are not integrated, leading to losses from a
surprise mid-range air-to-air missile attack within its territory. While the
incident did not generate significant attention in mainstream global media,
China and Pakistan heavily hyped it, particularly through coordinated online
propaganda, suggesting this was a carefully orchestrated event.
Despite its advanced
equipment, the Indian Air Force has too many weaknesses, and its combat
effectiveness is limited. War is never won by equipment alone. However, this
large-scale mid-range air battle was indeed a first in human history, and
countries worldwide will conduct detailed analyses of it. The Pakistani Air
Force lacks the capability to counter the Indian Air Force’s comprehensive air
strikes. In the past, the Indian Air Force has repeatedly struck terrorist
bases inside Pakistan without interception, and Pakistan’s air defense systems,
such as the HQ-9 and HQ-16, failed to respond. This time, it is likely that
Chinese military personnel directly commanded the operation, or even Chinese
fighter pilots participated, choosing to engage within Pakistani territory. The
Indian Air Force suffers from subpar pilot training, poor aircraft maintenance,
and overly complex avionics systems due to the variety of aircraft models,
making it difficult to form effective combat power. India, not even considered
an industrial nation, lacks a complete industrial system. Its weapons and
equipment face issues from development to maintenance, compounded by a lax and
imprecise approach, resulting in a large but ineffective military. Compared to
the weaker Pakistan, India has a size advantage but limited combat strength,
unable to fully dominate.
In the disputed Kashmir
region, India controls 45%, Pakistan nearly 40%, and China 15%. The balance of
power between China-Pakistan and India makes it difficult to alter the status
quo through military means. The complex terrain and harsh climate also make
large-scale, long-term military deployments challenging. All parties create
incidents in the region for political gain, drawing international attention
before quietly de-escalating. India’s ruling party seeks to divert domestic
issues through military actions, Pakistan aims to secure more aid, and China
uses the conflict to promote its arms sales. China provides significant annual
military aid to Pakistan, its most important Belt and Road partner, but
Pakistan has no choice in the weapons it receives, accepting them passively.
The backbone of the Pakistani Air Force remains the U.S.-made F-16, with good
relations built through years of counterterrorism cooperation. However, due to
its nuclear program, the U.S. imposes restrictions and prohibits Pakistan from
using F-16s for offensive operations. The J-10CEs, valued at over 24 billion
RMB, acquired by Pakistan are part of Chinese military aid, provided as a loan
to be repaid by 2032—effectively a gift that Pakistan did not actively request.
The so-called JF-17
(Xiaolong) joint production was initially aimed at replacing the large number
of Soviet MiG-21s retiring in developing countries, with the affordable JH-7
filling the gap. At the time, China, under U.S. pressure, exported through Pakistan’s
name. However, the JF-17, derived from the MiG-21-based J-7, has limited combat
capability. Russia’s affordable MiG-29, along with abundant second-hand and
retired Western aircraft, combined with geopolitical influences, led to poor
JF-17 sales. It was only provided to Myanmar and Algeria through Chinese
grants. Pakistan, lacking any industrial base, offers little assurance for
exporting aviation equipment. Although China has made rapid progress in
aviation weaponry, its export efforts have seen little success. Even with
favorable terms for friendly nations, the lack of combat-proven performance has
led to failures, with countries like Thailand, Serbia, Argentina, and Egypt
opting for European or second-hand U.S. equipment instead.
Thus, through this
carefully planned air ambush, China aims to break its passive stance and open
up the international market for its aircraft exports, with some international
orders reportedly in negotiation. Pakistan’s provocation predictably triggered an
Indian retaliatory airstrike, as seen in the past. Given Pakistan’s
historically ineffective air defenses, India launched its attack with lax
precautions but suffered heavy losses from a coordinated China-Pakistan strike.
Pakistan’s claimed results are likely exaggerated; it’s implausible that all
types of Indian aircraft, French and Russian, were lost. The most credible
evidence points to one French Rafale being shot down. Even if ten Chinese
aircraft were traded for it, the loss is significant, as the Rafale is an
advanced 4.5-generation fighter, second only to the F-35, with a high price tag
and strong export performance. Currently, both sides are engaged in a
propaganda and information war. Pakistan exaggerates its achievements to tout
Chinese equipment, while India denies losses and plans retaliation. However,
the likelihood of further large-scale military conflict remains low.
China emerges as the
biggest beneficiary, potentially securing some arms orders, but even downing a
Rafale has limited impact on exports. Geopolitical constraints are
unavoidable—wealthy nations won’t buy, poor nations can’t afford it, and
middle-tier nations have many options. China’s support for Russia against the
West, amid a heated trade war, makes countries reluctant to take sides by
purchasing its equipment. Moreover, few nations urgently need aviation
equipment. At China’s nominal price to Pakistan, a J-10CE costs over $70
million, with many alternatives available internationally. The online hype and
orchestrated propaganda are largely driven by Chinese nationalist sentiment and
prearranged narratives.
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