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2024年8月13日 星期二

Ukrainian raids Kursk, Putin is confused about who invaded whom now

 


Ukraine has suddenly invaded Russia's Kursk Region and has broken through dozens of kilometers of defenses and is now starting to build fortifications. The long-disturbed Ukrainian summer offensive has officially begun, but in an unexpected way. It would not be an exaggeration to call this attack an invasion, as the Kursk region was famous for the Soviet-German tank battles of World War II, and it is politically unfavorable for Russia to invade a country that has been invading Ukraine for more than two years, but is now being invaded by the enemy instead. 


For the United States, even if Trump came to power to force Ukraine to peace talks, if you can hold on to Kursk, undoubtedly the future of an additional bargaining chip. From a military point of view the so-called surprise attack emphasizes the strength of the attack, the speed and suddenness, and does not require too many personnel, if the gap is opened smoothly, you can then according to the specific circumstances to strengthen the personnel and equipment is not a problem, and the fact that the Ukrainian army is also so operated, and now there are already more troops into the war.

  

The Chechen troops that were defending the area only made a token stand and then retreated, and the new recruits that were stationed there, who were not capable of fighting, surrendered. Therefore, the suddenness of this offensive achieved unexpected results, and several hundred square kilometers of land were captured in a very short period of time. There are nuclear facilities and power plants, as well as a natural gas pipeline hub to Europe, which would be very favorable to the Ukrainian army if they took control of the area. Russia did not expect the Ukrainian army to take the initiative to attack its own territory. It would take at least 1-2 weeks for troops to be sent back from the Northern Military District and the front, but now tens of thousands of troops have been mobilized from all over the country and are on their way to Kursk in a hurry. The Ukrainians are building fortifications and deploying more troops, as well as ground armor, rockets, anti-aircraft missiles, and drones, so the siege is a certainty. 


The Russian army is now reinforced by civilian vehicles from the road, not even tanks and armored vehicles and heavy equipment, short-term expulsion of the Ukrainian army is likely to have a certain degree of difficulty. At least a few main divisions and armaments from the front line would be needed to cope with this sneak attack, but this would lead to a break in the battle line. Although the Russians have a numerical advantage in fighting a battle of attrition in the front line, it would be difficult for the Ukrainians to gain an advantage, and it would be detrimental to the Russians to move from a battle of positions to a battle of movement.

  

Kursk is only 500 kilometers away from Moscow, it doesn't take too long to use road armor to advance, and it took Prigogine only a few days to force Moscow. Although the Ukrainian army doesn't have any sign of hitting Moscow yet, it is inevitable that they will force the Russians to divide their forces through the war of movement by opening up a new battlefield. The Ukrainian army's main target is still Crimea, and it can launch an attack at any time. Kursk can be attacked both in and out, and if the Russians split their forces, they can attack Crimea, and the air defense facilities there have basically been cleared, the Black Sea fleet has been withdrawn, and the air bases have been cleared, so as long as they cut off the land and sea traffic, they will be able to achieve their goal. 


It is now up to the Ukrainian army to take the next step. The summer offensive into Kursk is not only a surprise, but also puts a lot of pressure on the Russian army. If the Russians slow down, the Ukrainians will expand their attack area, and if they try to divert their troops to help them, it will relieve the pressure on the eastern part of the country. If they keep sending a limited number of troops to rescue them, they will be gradually eliminated by the Ukrainians.

  

The political pressure on Vladimir Putin is also very great now, as Ukraine's successful sneak attack will open up other new wars, and the Russian army, with its own armament depletion, is basically unable to do anything about Ukraine's equipment advantage, and is not capable of effectively coping with it at all. And Ukraine is gradually gaining air superiority, so for the reinforcement of Kursk is more difficult, the face of the Ukrainian army equipped with Seamaster, F-16, drones, ground armor and other advanced equipment, how to rescue Kursk is a big problem, Putin KGB origin will not be unaware of the Kasimov claimed to have solved the Ukrainian army's lies. But how to deal with the invasion of Russia is indeed a new problem for Putin.

 

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