2025年5月27日 星期二
Putin to Trump: China wants war, North Korea needs money, so no ceasefire
Even with Trump's
mediation, Russia refuses to ceasefire. Although the current U.S. bias is
exactly what Putin desires, the situation has not unfolded as expected.
Russia's economy, still maintaining 3-5% annual growth, is entirely driven by a
war economy. Without this, years of global sanctions would have led to economic
collapse and widespread hardship, making it difficult to sustain. Despite the
loss of a million soldiers and vast amounts of military equipment, most
casualties come from remote regions' ethnic minorities and marginalized groups,
including criminals and the homeless. Major Russian cities remain largely
unaffected, and with the government's tacit approval, many urban youths fled
early in the war. Thus, the million casualties have not shaken the country's
foundation but rather reduced the burden by "clearing out" low-end
populations.
Historically, Russia has
always relied on massive personnel losses to cope with large-scale wars. The
Slavic attitude toward death is almost indifferent, showing little concern for
the number of lives expended in war. Russia has long been a serfdom-based
state, where serfs were at the disposal of landowners but nominally belonged to
the Tsar. Landowners had usage rights but not ownership, and while serfs were
guaranteed minimal survival conditions by the Tsar's decree, their depletion
was utterly disregarded. Military officers came from the nobility, while
soldiers were peasants and serfs, treated as mere "gray mules,"
barely valued above animals. Thus, the Russian military has a longstanding
tradition of disregarding soldiers' lives. During World War II, retreating
soldiers faced execution, their families were sent to Siberia to eat potatoes,
while charging forward earned black bread, and families received potatoes to
survive. Soldiers' lives were measured in terms of potatoes and black bread.
For many unemployed,
alcoholic, smoking, abusive, uneducated men with no prospects in Russia's
peripheral regions, dying on the frontlines for millions of rubles in
government payouts is not necessarily a bad deal for their local economies or
families. Russian men, with a life expectancy of just over 50 due to chronic
alcoholism, have little to lose. Moreover, Russia has historically blurred the
line between soldiers and civilians, with potentially tens of millions
available to be sent to the battlefield. As for weapons, Russia inherited vast
Soviet stockpiles, sufficient for prolonged conventional warfare, supplemented
by some advanced equipment. North Korea's soldiers and weapons further bolster
this, as their situation mirrors Russia's. Thus, a 21st-century war has
devolved into World War I-style trench warfare, with drones absent, as if
returning to a century ago. Russia's technological, logistical, and
intelligence capabilities lag far behind the West, so it relies on its
strength: attrition, betting on who can endure greater losses.
Currently, apart from
most of Luhansk being occupied, the frontlines are in a stalemate with
Ukrainian forces, with Crimea also under strain. The goal of occupying the four
eastern regions is to connect them with Crimea, ensuring a viable independent
entity linked to Russia. Without this, the "special military
operation" is meaningless. Ukraine, after three years of war, has built a
million-strong, well-equipped, and battle-hardened army, gradually gaining air
superiority with Western support. A ceasefire is meaningless for Russia unless
Ukraine's military is dismantled, as it could counterattack with NATO support
at any time. If Russia withdraws from the costly eastern territories, they risk
being lost again in the long term, and Russia's economic strength is
insufficient for reconstruction or long-term stabilization. The hard-won
stalemate keeps Ukraine's air superiority in check by maintaining
close-quarters combat.
China's stance is also a
factor. As Russia's main financial backer, China benefits from a prolonged war
where Russia neither wins nor Ukraine loses. This prevents the West from fully
focusing on China, and Russia's energy revenues and goods largely come from
China. A ceasefire would intensify U.S. pressure on China, escalating trade and
tariff conflicts, and China would lose Russia as a key counterweight against
the U.S. With Trump's term limited to three years (or longer if re-elected,
though an octogenarian has limited time), Russia is unlikely to abandon its
current partial advantage if the U.S. returns to a confrontational stance. With
Chinese financial support, Russia can sustain the war and even open a second
front to divert Ukraine's forces, targeting Poland, Finland, or the Baltic
states.
Domestically, Putin's
control relies on nationalism, internal repression, military rule, propaganda,
and speech control, with wartime conditions being key. As long as the war
continues, he maintains a high-pressure grip, fostering unity against external threats.
If the war ends, opposition could resurge, and returning soldiers and weapons
pose a domestic threat. Prigozhin's brief rebellion, advancing hundreds of
kilometers toward Moscow with a small force, nearly toppled Putin. Troops are
easier to control on the frontlines than back home, where they become
destabilizing. At his advanced age, Putin emulates Stalin: as long as the
nation is at war, he remains the undisputed national leader. With no decisive
military advantage yet, Russia lacks favorable negotiation leverage. To
maintain the status quo, Putin will fight to the end, never allowing Ukraine a
chance to regroup.
2025年5月26日 星期一
普京對川普說中國逼著打朝鮮要賺錢俄烏停戰也就別想了
俄羅斯即便在特朗普的調解下也不肯停戰，雖然美國現在的偏袒是普京求之不得的，然而事情的發展確實事與願違。俄羅斯目前每年仍然維持的3-5%的經濟增長，完全是戰爭經濟所帶動，否則在多年全球打擊下，經濟凋敝民生困苦很難支撐下去。雖然是傷亡百萬軍隊軍備無數，但多數是邊遠地區的少數民族和包括罪犯遊民在內的低端人口，大城市的俄羅斯人實際上並未受到太大影響，況且開戰初就在政府默許下有大量城市青年逃亡，因此百萬傷亡並未動搖國本，反而可以清理低端人口減少國家負擔。
從歷史上看俄羅斯歷來以人員巨大消耗來應對大規模的戰爭，斯拉夫民族對於死亡的態度近乎冷漠，對於戰爭中需要消耗掉多少生命根本不在乎。俄國歷史上就是農奴制國家，奴隸可供地主使用，但名義上是沙皇財產，地主有使用權沒有產權，對於奴隸雖然按照沙皇的要求給予最低限度的生存保障，但是對其消耗則完全視若無睹。軍隊的軍官是貴族階層而士兵是農民和奴隸，地位也就是所謂“灰色的騾子”，不比動物高出多少甚至還不如。因此俄國軍隊歷來就有漠視士兵生命的傳統，在二戰期間亦是如此，士兵退卻會被槍斃，家人受牽連充軍去西伯利亞吃土豆，衝鋒則可以領到黑麵包，家人也可以領到土豆維持生存，所以士兵的生命是以土豆黑面包來計算的。
況且對現在邊緣地區失業，酗酒，抽煙，家暴，沒工作，沒收入，沒前途，教育程度有限的很多男人來説，到前綫送死得到幾百萬政府發放的盧布，對當地經濟和整個家族都未必是壞事，俄國男人常年酗酒壽命本來也就50多歲而已。況且俄國歷來就兵民不分，能夠送上戰場的最少也有上千萬。至於武器則是繼承前蘇聯，打常規戰可以消耗很長時間，再補充些較爲先進的裝備即可。況且現在還有朝鮮的士兵和武器可以補充，對方和俄國的情況也差不多。所以21世紀的戰爭打成了第一次世界大戰的水準，陣地塹壕絞殺戰，沒了無人機仿佛回到了1百年前，因爲俄國人在技術裝備情報後勤等方面都遠落後於西方，所以只能發揮己方所長拼消耗看誰傷亡多扛得住。
現在除了盧甘斯克大部被佔外，其餘都是與烏軍陷入僵持，況且還有個被牽制的克裡米亞，占領東部4州的目的就是要和克裡米亞連成一綫，與俄羅斯連接成確保能夠維持獨立狀態，如果不保則特別軍事行動毫無意義。現在是烏克蘭3年戰爭打成了裝備先進戰鬥力大的百萬大軍，而且在西方支援下正在逐漸掌握制空權。只要烏克蘭軍隊不解散停戰對於俄羅斯毫無意義，對方隨時可以在北約配合下反攻。如果停戰俄軍撤退花費巨大代價獲取的東部4州，長遠來講必然有再次喪失的風險，況且以俄國的經濟實力根本談不上重建也就沒有能力長期穩定當地局勢。現在陷入僵持的戰爭局面得來不易，只要與烏克蘭軍隊膠著在一起，對方的空中優勢就不可能發揮。
況且中國的態度也需要考量，作爲大金主中國希望維持目前這種俄羅斯打不贏，烏克蘭也不會輸的局面，只要戰爭繼續西方就不可能全力對付中國，而且俄羅斯的能源收入和各類商品大部分來自中國，只要停戰美國針對中國的打壓將會加強，貿易關稅戰將會再次惡化，中方將會失去俄羅斯作爲對抗美國的最大籌碼。特朗普無非就是3年時間，即便連任對於一位八旬老人也意味著時日無多，如果美國將來回到對抗狀態，俄羅斯更不可能放棄目前的局部優勢。在中國資金支援下俄國不但有能力維持戰爭，甚至還會開闢第二戰場分散牽制烏克蘭軍事力量，針對波蘭，芬蘭和波羅的海三國，展開進一步的軍事行動。
目前普京對於國內的控制除了民族主義，內部嚴控，軍事管制，虚假宣傳，控制言論，最重要的就是維持戰時狀態，只要戰爭繼續他就能保持對內的高壓統治，就能產生凝聚力一致對外維護穩定。否則一旦戰爭結束反對派捲土重來，回到俄羅斯的大量軍隊人員和武器裝備對內威脅巨大，普裏戈津帶領少量部隊就能突襲幾百公里，逼近莫斯科迫使普京下臺，軍隊打仗在前綫容易管控，撤軍回國則成了不穩定因素。況且普京年事已高模仿史達林只要國家處於戰爭狀態，他就是民族領袖國家毋庸置疑的最高領導人。戰爭發展到現在俄羅斯仍未取得決定性的軍事優勢，因此也不具備有利談判的籌碼。最起碼到現在爲了維持局面普京也會戰鬥到底，絕不會接受停戰讓烏克蘭有喘息之機。
2025 Premier League Summary: Liverpool’s title win by luck, Manchester City’s deliberate losses a facade
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The final round of the Premier League was fiercely competitive, with an astonishing nine teams qualifying for European competitions. Tottenham, who won the Europa League, secured a Champions League spot despite finishing fourth from the bottom in the league. Manchester United’s situation was even more dire. Liverpool clinched the title with several rounds to spare, not due to their brilliance but because of the instability of other teams. Their last title win was similar, capitalizing on the chaos of the COVID-19 pandemic when many players were affected, but Liverpool’s squad remained relatively stable, allowing consistent performances to secure the championship.
This season, veterans like Salah and Van Dijk,
facing contract uncertainties and age-related concerns, were motivated to
perform at their best to earn renewals, which they achieved. However, this
reliance on aging stars highlights Liverpool’s looming transition problem.
Depending on veterans isn’t sustainable, and with rivals like Arsenal and Chelsea
already successfully transitioning, Liverpool must prioritize long-term
development by sacrificing short-term results, integrating younger talent, and
allowing a new manager time to rebuild. While this title pleased fans and laid
a foundation for reform, the renewals of aging stars suggest Liverpool may be
delaying the inevitable.
Arsenal, after five years of rebuilding, have yet to win silverware. Chelsea endured two painful years but are maturing, with a balanced squad age and growing experience. With one or two top-class signings in attack and defense, they could challenge for the title. Their tactical approach is also maturing, making them strong contenders in the future. Manchester City faced pressure from the FA, with rumors of potential expulsion from the Premier League. To reduce external scrutiny, they seemingly employed a deliberate strategy of allowing their form to dip mid-season, losing games unexpectedly to create the illusion of decline. Blame was shifted to Grealish, who was scapegoated and “exiled” to Serie A, despite merely following club instructions as captain.
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Once the FA’s scrutiny subsided, City reinforced their
squad and regained form, positioning them as title favorites for next season.
If Arsenal, Chelsea, and City perform to their potential, they are the
strongest contenders, making Liverpool’s title this season more a product of
circumstance than dominance. Chelsea struggled with a blunt attack, Arsenal
with injuries, and City with “political” issues mid-season. Without such
disruptions next season, Liverpool’s title defense will be extremely
challenging, especially with emerging teams like Newcastle and strong mid-table
sides.
Klopp’s departure from Liverpool was driven by the
immense pressure to win the title annually, only to fall short repeatedly.
Despite limited investment, Liverpool lack the absolute strength to dominate
consistently, leading to Klopp’s disillusionment. While they capitalized on
this season’s chaos, their success isn’t sustainable long-term, especially
given their financial constraints in a cash-driven Premier League. A fleeting
moment of glory doesn’t equate to lasting success.
Manchester United’s decline stems from the Glazers’
acquisition, which involved financial sleight-of-hand rather than genuine
investment. They extracted value from the club during its peak, turning it into
a cash machine before selling it for profit, leaving United hollowed out.
Subsequent mismanagement and limited finances, coupled with a lack of on-pitch
success, have deepened their decline. Hiring Amorim was a risky move—Portuguese
managers range from Mourinho’s brilliance to Villas-Boas’ failures. If Amorim
persists with rigid tactics, like his insistence on a three-back system, and
fails to adapt, United could sink further. The squad is demoralized, and
rebuilding while abandoning short-term results is a tough sell. In the Premier
League, adaptation is essential—stubbornness leads to failure with no middle
ground.
Tottenham’s failure lies entirely with their manager’s
approach: all-out attack with no defensive balance. Football isn’t rugby, and
their Europa League triumph was built on solid defending, not just attacking
flair. Their offensive strength must be paired with defensive improvements for
a balanced strategy. Finishing fourth from the bottom proves this point—without
change, they could slip further. Tottenham must urgently appoint a new manager
to avoid dire consequences.
Next season, the Premier League will likely return to
dominance by the traditional “Big Four” or “Big Six,” with maturing teams
reasserting control. Newcomers like Newcastle face an uphill battle to break
through. The focus will remain on United and Tottenham’s struggles, which add
to the Premier League’s intrigue.
2025賽季英超總結：利物浦奪冠僥幸，曼城故意輸球做假
英超最後一輪競爭激烈，最後居然有9隊可以打歐洲賽，奪取歐聯的熱刺得到了打歐冠的機會，但聯賽排名居然是倒數第4，曼聯就更加慘不忍睹。利物浦提前多輪奪冠，最大的原因不是如何出色，而是其他隊動蕩不安，上次奪冠也是如此，新冠肆虐下大量球員染病，英超閉門作賽利物浦球員感染情況不嚴重，發揮穩定下最終奪冠。本賽季沙拉和雲迪克等老將都面臨合約，年齡和轉會問題，前途不定下都想爭取最好發揮獲得續約，這對利物浦來講不失為一個原動力，最後兩位主力也算是如願以償。但是從另一個方面來看，球隊遲早面臨轉型問題，依靠老將不能持久，遲早是要重新打造球隊的，何況在其他強隊阿仙奴，車路士等都已經轉型成功的情況下，如果追求長遠發展應該立刻轉型，犧牲短期利益著眼長遠發展，引進新人提升青年才俊，在新教練帶領下付出一定的時間代價，最終自然能夠保持強隊優勢。現在奪冠取悅球迷為將來改革打基礎，但最終從老將續約看來利記估計是事與願違。
阿仙奴經過5年的磨合仍是一無所獲，車路士也經歷了痛苦的2年，但毫無疑問球隊開始走向成熟，只要補充一兩名頂級前鋒和後衛就能夠奪冠，球隊年齡層次合理經驗逐漸豐富，技戰術打法也開始走向成熟未來成績可期。曼城由於受到英足縂的打壓，甚至傳出將被逐出英超的傳聞，況且英超高層也不希望看到藍月亮的壟斷，因此情勢所迫之下不得不使用苦肉計，主動放棄在賽季中段突然成績莫名其妙成績下滑，讓出很多比賽輸球不斷，目的自然是較少外部壓力，造成球隊已經開始衰落的跡象。最後還拿個獲加祭旗，將輸球責任怪責他的失誤身上，甚至提前放棄流放到意甲，實際上這完全是球會的操作而已，故意讓球隊成績下滑，獲加本身就是隊長得到了指示而已。
英超高層追究曼城的風頭一過，球會立刻補充新人成績有所恢復，來年仍然是冠軍的最強對手。如果其他強隊正常發揮，至少阿仙奴，曼城和車路士都是冠軍有利爭奪者，利物浦本次奪冠客觀因素居多。前者三隊在賽季初中期都是前列份子，進入中段後車路士是鋒綫無力，阿仙奴是傷病太多，曼城是政治正確，來季沒有幹預利物浦奪冠艱難無比。況且還有新貴紐卡素和一系列實力不弱的中上游球隊。利物浦高普之所以離職，最大的原因是每年奪冠壓力很大，但最終都是功虧一簣，利物浦多年來投入不多，並不具備絕對實力，心灰意冷一走了之。現在雖然趁亂奪冠，但長遠來説成功不可持續，況且利物浦球會財力有限，英超也是無錢萬萬不能的聯賽，最後無非是一刹那光輝不能代表永恆。
曼聯的衰落最大的原因是當年美國財團的收購，其實根本沒有拿出3億英鎊，最多只有1億其餘資金根本沒有到位，而且拿出來的錢也都是靠財技，真正的投入不多空手套白狼，得手後將最巔峰時期的曼聯過度透支，簡直成了提款機轉賣又大賺一筆，但曼聯整個球會已經被掏空。加之後續班主的一系列莫名操作積重難返，何況球會現在本就財力有限，再沒了成績保障就會更加衰敗。聘請阿莫林更是作死，葡超教練既有莫連奴這樣的高手，也有保亞斯這般的小丑。如果再給他一個賽季很有可能徹底沉淪，現在已經是軍心離散各奔前程的狀態，重新打造球隊放棄成績談何容易。何況教練甚至連3後衛都不肯改動，打法死板臨場調動僵化對球員使用乏善足陳，在英超連創敗績威信盡失的新教練。英超不是葡超，要麽改變態度去適應，墨守陳規而失敗，根本沒有第三選擇。
熱刺的失敗完全是教練問題，只攻不守，以攻代守，天下哪有如此踢球的，熱刺不是橄欖球隊，最終贏得歐聯冠軍還是靠防守。熱刺有進攻能力最需要加強的是防守，只有攻防平衡才能稱之爲戰術。否則每場比賽都是戰鬥，亂打之下不可能堅持到最後，倒數第4已經證明瞭這點，否則下次就會成爲倒數第3。所以熱刺必須另請高明，而且刻不容緩否則後果不堪設想。英超來季的發展仍將回歸正規，傳統的4大班霸6大豪門，逐漸成熟後重新控制英超，新貴想逆襲估計非常困難。只是曼聯和熱刺的隕落仍將成爲關注焦點，這也是英超引人入勝之處。
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