本郷柚巴

 

福井梨莉華

 

都丸紗也華

 

村島未悠

 

田中美久 、 Miku Tanaka

 

三上悠亜

 

America defeated Germany and Japan in 3 Years, now 'Trumple' loses to China just 30 days

 

The unexpected announcement of the US-China trade negotiation results indicates that the US will impose a 30% tariff on China, while China will impose a 10% tariff on the US. Combined with the 20% tariff from 2018, China faces roughly 50% tariffs overall. The trade war will pause for 90 days, with further negotiations on other issues to follow.

Most of the 20% tariff from 2018 has been mitigated by China through methods like transshipment and overseas exports. The mutual 10% tariffs offset each other, leaving an effective tariff of about 20%. Producers, importers, and consumers each bear a portion, with China’s export tax rebates and recent RMB depreciation further cushioning the impact. Additionally, the US applies a baseline tariff of around 10% to other countries, suggesting that the trade dispute between the two nations is largely resolved. While there may be fluctuations after the 90-day period, the general direction is set. Trump’s tariff drama with China is on hold, but he will likely continue pressuring other countries. Except for the EU and Japan, most nations lack the economic strength to counter the US. China, the most resistant, faces 30% tariffs, while others will likely face around 20% on average, with specific items varying.

Debating who won or lost this round is less meaningful than recognizing that the trade dispute hasn’t worsened. The US and China account for over a third of the global economy, and a tariff war threatens not only both nations but also global economic stability. The instigator, Trump, a failed businessman who has gone bankrupt six times, has relied on Russian funds to bail himself out and has no notable success in commercial trade. His approach—self-serving and damaging to others—mirrors his governance: driven by personal whims, marked by erratic statements, inconsistent strategies, chaotic negotiations, and a lack of credibility. He bullies the weak while fearing the strong. Decoupling from China requires a national strategy, allied coordination, long-term planning, and a focus on ideological differences rather than trade disputes. Suppression should target authoritarian leaders, not their people.

Trump’s tariff war against the world has backfired, with China’s counterstrike forcing a compromise. Post-WWII globalization, driven by US military and economic dominance, matured after the Cold War. The US specializes in high-tech innovation, and manufacturing revival is infeasible due to high costs. Without Chinese imports, the US economy would stall, as entire supply chains vanished decades ago and cannot be rebuilt quickly. Decoupling from China’s full industrial chain would take over a decade. During the late Cold War, the US allied with China against the Soviets, and globalization was a US-led project. Until Trump’s presidency, the US and China were strategic partners, benefiting mutually.

However, new leaders—amateur politicians—have ushered in a post-Cold War strategic rivalry, with “allying with Russia against the US” and “US-China decoupling” souring relations. This has fractured global peace, splitting the world into opposing camps. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the US-China trade war signal an economic world war through tariffs, dismantling the post-Cold War order. The culprits—autocratic leaders in the US, China, and Russia—share similar ideologies: “Make America Great Again,” “Russian ethnic revival,” and the “Chinese Dream.” To pursue these fantasies, they’ve disrupted global peace, prioritizing personal will over national interests and law, waging unrestricted warfare that harms people and destabilizes the planet, regressing history to pre-Cold War chaos.

The trade negotiation outcome warns Trump that he cannot act unchecked. The stalemate in Ukraine shows Putin that the era of might-makes-right is over. China, integrated into global trade, cannot sustain a full confrontation with the West. Its economic pillars—exports and real estate—are crumbling, with the property bubble already burst. Further export suppression could trigger economic collapse, threatening the ruling party’s legitimacy. Thus, the trade war is a political, not just economic, issue. Trump has identified China’s vulnerability, and persistence could yield long-term success. However, decoupling and collapsing China’s economy benefits neither the US, the Chinese people, nor global stability. China’s unique role as the world’s factory, with its unmatched industrial chain, is irreplaceable.

Without allies, the US cannot economically overpower China. Trump’s unilateral, ego-driven trade war is doomed, and his compromise is inevitable—a complete defeat. If “making America great” results in soaring prices, empty shelves, and economic strife—where families argue over costs, children lack toys or computers, and jobless husbands face broken marriages—what does this “greatness” mean? As long as Trump remains in power, America’s decline is certain. His folly and recklessness led to the US defeating Germany and Japan in WWII in three years, yet in this trade war with China, he was defeated in just one month!

 

二戰美國3年打敗德國日本＂特沒譜＂現在一個月投降中國

 

中美貿易談判出人意料地公佈結果，大致是美國對中國徵收關稅30%，中方則是徵美國10%，加上2018年的20%，總體中方將被徵收50%左右的關稅，貿易戰停止90天，後續再進行其他項目的談判。

18年關稅的20%大部份已被中方通過洗產地和海外輸出等方式消化掉了，雙方互相徵收的10%抵消，實際上也就是20%左右。生產商，進口商和消費者各自負擔一部份，並且中國政府還有出口退稅補貼，人民幣最近一直在貶值，況且美國對其他國家的對等基本關稅是10%左右，簡而言之兩國之間的貿易紛爭基本解決了，雖然今後90天后還有反復但大致方向已定。特朗普對中國的關稅鬧劇暫停，他會繼續對其他國家採取壓迫手段。除了歐盟和日本外，多數國家沒有經濟實力對抗美國，現在對抗最激烈的中國是30%，其他國家估計整體維持在20%左右，個別項目和商品另作別論。

爭論本次會談誰輸誰贏意義不大，最基本的成果是貿易紛爭沒有惡化，全球經濟中美占了三成以上，關稅戰不但對兩國而且對全球經濟都是威脅。這一切的始作俑者就是特朗普，他作爲一個破產6次之多的失敗商人，每次除了從俄國套取資金自救外，在商業貿易上的經歷一無是處，基本原則從來就是損人利己。如此體現在治理國家上也是如此，完全是個人意志主導，胡言亂言優先，策略前後矛盾，談判雜亂無章，根本談不上任何信用可言，而且是欺軟怕硬耍無賴。與中國搞切割必須採取國家戰略，聯絡盟友做長期準備和規劃，然後針對重點目標逐步打壓，重心應該放在意識形態上，而不是貿易經濟糾紛，打壓是獨裁領導者而不是人民。

現在特朗普與世界爲敵對全球發動關稅戰，結果被中國反戈一擊下妥協落敗。全球化在二戰後通過美國軍事力量的對外輸出而展開，冷戰後已經整體成型並且成功發展成熟，美國的分工領域是高科技產品的開發和創新，所謂製造業回歸根本不可能，美國負擔不起重建製造業所需的成本。美國不進口中國的產品國家無法運作，因爲各種產業鏈已經消失30年之久，不可能短時間內打造完成，與中國的全產業切割最少需要十年以上時間。冷戰後期聯中抗蘇是美國的基本國策，全球化就是美國打造而成的，中國作爲競爭對手是美國扶持的，直到特朗普上臺前，兩國合作關係良好各取所需，完全是真正意義上的戰略夥伴關係。

但是隨著中美兩國的所謂新領導人上臺，業餘政治家展開後反冷戰時代的戰略對抗，“聯俄抗美和中美切割”，導致兩者關係迅速惡化，進而使得世界和平體系迅速再次分化成兩大陣營互相對抗，冷戰後來之不易的30年大致世界和平被破壞，在政治上俄國入侵烏克蘭，在經濟上中美貿易大戰，全球化的關稅衝突就是經貿世界大戰，因此世界政治經濟安全秩序被破壞，始作俑者就是中美俄的獨裁者。而且三者的理念也驚人相似，“美國再次偉大，俄羅斯民族的偉大復興，中國夢”，爲了實現這些不切實際的奇妙幻想，破壞冷戰後的世界和平，不惜打破世界安全秩序，個人意志淩駕與國家利益和法律之上，發動超限戰殘害人民破壞地球和平，迫使歷史倒退到冷戰前的混亂局面。

中美貿易談判的成果警告了特朗普不能爲所欲爲，俄烏戰爭的僵持告訴普京弱肉強食的時代已經結束，而中國作爲世界貿易體系的一份子，全面對抗西方的策略註定失敗。中國推動經濟的兩大支柱出口和房地產，房地產泡沫已經自行爆破，唯一的出口貿易再受打壓會經濟崩潰，如此必然導致執政黨的統治受到威脅，所以貿易戰是政治問題不是經濟問題。應該説特朗普已經抓到了競爭對手的軟肋，只要堅持下去長期必定會獲勝。但問題是即便將中美貿易完全切割，中國經濟崩潰對美國有何益處，對中國人民有何益處，對全球經濟有何益處，對人類的和平發展有何益處。中國作爲世界工廠擁有全產業鏈，在地球上目前只此一家無可取代。

沒有盟友支持僅靠美國無法在經濟上對抗中國，特朗普一意孤行個人意志主導下的貿易戰必敗，現在所做妥協是必然的，特朗普完敗！如果美國再次強大的結果是物價大漲，貨架空缺，以消費爲主的美國經濟，普通家庭妻子因爲物價上升無貨可買而與丈夫爭吵，孩子因沒有玩具和電腦與父母哭鬧，丈夫因失去工作沒了經濟來源家庭婚姻破碎，那麽這種強大對於美國來説有何意義？從目前的情況看，只要特朗普繼續執政，美國走向衰落是必然的。由於他的愚蠢和任性，美國在二戰中3年多打敗了德國和日本，但現在與中國的貿易戰，僅僅一個月就輕易戰敗了！

百瀬まりな