千變萬化的飛俠

2022年2月18日星期五

美國「有線電視新聞網」（CNN）指出，俄羅斯總統普京先前表示，將發生於烏克蘭東部頓巴斯（Donbass）的衝突定位為「種族滅絕」（genocide），俄羅斯還宣佈已根據其聯邦刑法第356條，針對烏克蘭軍方2014年以來於頓巴斯地區「炮擊平民」一事展開刑事調查，聲稱烏克蘭「明顯有意消滅頓巴斯居民」。俄羅斯在2008年8月時，也曾宣佈喬治亞政府對南奧賽提亞（South Ossetia）平民實施種族滅絕，接著便啟動大規模軍事介入，讓歐美擔心會「故技重施」作為對烏克蘭出兵的理由。

美國稱俄羅斯打算在16日進攻烏克蘭，最後普京主動撤軍聲稱不會採取軍事行動，並且指責烏克蘭在衝突地區製造事端。烏克蘭即便發射些迫擊炮彈，也是在國內地區況且數量有限。普京主動撤軍的目的從軍事上講，既然攻擊計畫已被發現失去突發性，自然是要撤兵重新選擇時機。如果俄羅斯要發動對烏克蘭的進攻，根本不存在軍事上的問題。

打烏克蘭也無非是有限的幾種方式，佔領全境扶持親俄政府；迅速打下首都基輔後與歐美展開談判，否則加大軍事力度可進可退；最後就是直接讓東部獨立。雖然不能排除本次普京主動撤軍是歐美與其達成了某種程度的暗中交易，最多就是答應烏克蘭原定2024年左右加入北約的計畫延期。普京現在撤軍非常有利，因為可以隨時再調動軍隊威脅烏克蘭，只要持續保持軍事壓力，最起碼國際油價居高不下，對俄羅斯能源出口得利很大。美國飽受通脹困物價上漲，石油價格不下來壓力很大，何況還將面對中期選舉和疫情惡化，無暇顧及下不希望發生戰爭。相反對俄羅斯來講如果烏克蘭加入北約，接下來必然是提出對克裡米亞的要求。

普京與歐美的談判其實毫無意義，當年俄德還簽署協議互不侵犯，最後還不是打到你死我活，軍事威脅下的城下之盟隨時可以撕毀。歐美對付俄羅斯的無非是經濟制裁，而普京最顧忌的也是影響能源出口和盧布受到衝擊。真採用軍事手段早就速戰速決了，所以拖到現在還是經濟利益。威脅烏克蘭當然在政治外交上的利益也不小，而且現在完全受普京掌控。烏克蘭處於歐美和俄國的夾縫之下，實際上是利益最受損的一方。強勢加入會被侵略，不加入喪失時機，以後俄羅斯採用同樣手段，則再加入北約遙遙無期了。

客觀上說如果北約直接軍事介入，俄羅斯並沒有能力全面抵抗，況且前者必定利用空中優勢進行打擊，俄國的地面老舊裝甲部隊，坦克重炮裝甲車也是不堪一擊。即便北約派遣少量部隊直接部署烏克蘭讓普京消滅，諒後者也不敢與整個北約長期對抗而採用軍事手段。南奧塞梯，克裡米亞之類並非烏克蘭可比，畢竟後者疆域更大戰略地位重要，如果失去烏克蘭普京得逞，則北約東擴徹底停止，相反俄羅斯可趁機直接威脅波蘭，後者已經開始部署戰略導彈防禦系統，進而就是其他東歐前華約國家，如此新冷戰全面開打了。直接面對俄羅斯和近年的“競爭對手”，兩面受壓下形勢被動。

歐美現在既不想讓普京得逞但也不想直接戰爭，況且在時間上也來不及調動部隊。所以必定是採取暗中妥協的手段穩住普京，然後爭取時間加強烏克蘭的軍事力量。客觀上說真的全面開打俄羅斯的軍事實力，完全不能負擔長期與北約的軍事消耗。現在最不利的就是烏克蘭，如果歐美一味在普京的軍事威脅下不斷妥協讓步，則烏克蘭加入歐盟北約在今後相當長的時期，至少是普京當政期間不可能實現，而且會引發俄羅斯不斷都對其採取強硬軍事手段。

況且北約如答應普京條件，如此等於放棄烏克蘭讓俄羅斯威脅得逞。現在烏克蘭完全是棋子任人擺佈，如果烏克蘭想自己掌握的命運的話，不如採取軍事冒險手段迫使美俄就範，只要採取一定的軍事手段主動攻擊俄軍，最後導致局勢惡化美俄自然會正式攤牌，只要刺激雙方發生軍事衝突，今後的事情可以不管了。

長期軍事政治經濟能源消耗下，俄羅斯普京必敗無疑，如此烏克蘭加入歐盟成，為北約成員國不過是時間問題。所以，現在對烏克蘭來講為徹底解決問題，要堅決採取冒險手段“狠打俄羅斯一傢夥”。

2022年2月17日星期四

Rin Asuka

2022年2月15日星期二

Sara Oshino

2022年2月11日星期五

彭德懷怒吼粟裕我不是你的通訊員

Tomomi Nakagawa

Why did Russian boss leave without eating Peking duck after the opening ceremony

Putin made a lightning visit to attend the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics, and then left for a total of a few hours that night. He didn't even attend the specially prepared dinner. The price was to get hundreds of billions of dollars in energy trade orders from China. Russia’s official explanation is that because of the epidemic, the actual situation is caused by the tension in Ukraine. Although Putin pretends to be relaxed on the surface and has absolute initiative in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, in fact, he is very stressed and extremely nervous.

It was rumored that he might not participate in the opening ceremony, but at the last moment he appeared only after the other party agreed to the economic and trade requirements. Ukraine’s military strength is limited. Even the country’s militia has only 250,000 troops, and the combat effectiveness and weapons are all limited. If Russia intends to take military measures to solve the problem completely, it should take Kiev without a hitch, making it a reality that Europe and the United States will definitely be out of reach. Of course, this is equivalent to the official start of the new Cold War, and Ukraine will become the front line of the confrontation between the United States and Russia. The final result must be to repeat the mistakes of the former Soviet Union. With Russia's comprehensive strength far worse than the former Soviet Union, all-round overall long-term confrontation is easier said than done.

If eastern Ukraine is conquered, NATO can separately announce that West Ukraine will directly join NATO, which means that Ukraine has become East and West Germany, and disguised acceptance of NATO’s garrison of troops in West Ukraine. Therefore, Putin's trump card is to defeat the enemy without fighting, and use military pressure to force Europe and the United States to sign an alliance under the city. As for the hundreds of billions of orders received from partners, it is mainly energy contracts, and it is the supply of the next ten years. These orders were originally planned to sign, but they are now overdrafted in advance. If NATO Russia implements a full-scale military confrontation, the 100 billion-dollar installment contract is simply not enough.

Moreover, after the trade war, the partners themselves were affected by a combination of factors such as economic decline, shortage of funds, recession in the manufacturing industry, serious unemployment, withdrawal of foreign capital, the impact of the epidemic, the deterioration of international relations, and the deterioration of overseas investment, and their economic strength was under pressure. If China support Russia's annexation of Ukraine in the first place, it would be tantamount to direct confrontation with Europe and the United States under the coercion of Russia. How the final result refers to historical experience will have the answer. The U.S. has warned that if China backs Russia, economic sanctions must cover her, which is why Putin almost didn’t fly to there because the partner didn’t quite meet his conditions. So he didn't eat famous Peking Duck specially prepared and hurried back to Russia, otherwise he would still have enough time to take a bite.

As for the epidemic, Russia is the country with the worst deterioration. At the beginning of the epidemic, the mayor of Moscow said that it was almost out of control. Now the situation has worsened and it is difficult to deal with it. This is also one of the reasons why Putin took risks in Ukraine. Inciting national sentiment and reducing the pressure on his own internal governance, in fact, this is his tried and tested method for many years. In addition, the United States hastily withdrawn its troops from Central Asia and devoted all its forces to the Asia-Pacific, weakening NATO's strength in Europe against its new rival. In addition, being affected by the epidemic provides Putin with a rare opportunity.

The military strategic focus of Europe and the United States was in Europe after World War II, and later the Middle East is now returning to the Asia-Pacific. The withdrawal of troops from Central Asia has created a vacuum and the military pressure in the Taiwan Strait has intensified. It is difficult to take into account Putin's attack in the short and medium term. Now Putin will continue to exert military pressure to force NATO to submit in the short term. So far, Europe and the United States have not fully deployed organized troops in Ukraine. Compared with the last Russian-Ukrainian conflict, troops from various countries led by the United Kingdom were directly deployed there. If NATO directly sends troops, to Putin, it will immediately fall into a negative position. Although the military force deployed by the other party is certainly very limited, if it is sent to Russia for elimination, even killing a small number of soldiers will mean a full-scale war.

Now Europe and the United States are buying time to respond, and finally direct military forces intervene. Of course, certain risk assessments are required, but once a decision is made, Putin will definitely become passive. Whether it is a full-scale war or a local war, it is not conducive to Putin's permanent power in the long run. Even if Ukraine is defeated, it will face a long-term resistance supported by Europe and the United States. Terrorist attacks in Russia are indispensable, and there are lessons from Afghanistan.