Putin made a lightning visit to attend the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics, and then left for a total of a few hours that night. He didn't even attend the specially prepared dinner. The price was to get hundreds of billions of dollars in energy trade orders from China. Russia’s official explanation is that because of the epidemic, the actual situation is caused by the tension in Ukraine. Although Putin pretends to be relaxed on the surface and has absolute initiative in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, in fact, he is very stressed and extremely nervous.
It was rumored that he might not participate in the opening ceremony, but at the last moment he appeared only after the other party agreed to the economic and trade requirements. Ukraine’s military strength is limited. Even the country’s militia has only 250,000 troops, and the combat effectiveness and weapons are all limited. If Russia intends to take military measures to solve the problem completely, it should take Kiev without a hitch, making it a reality that Europe and the United States will definitely be out of reach. Of course, this is equivalent to the official start of the new Cold War, and Ukraine will become the front line of the confrontation between the United States and Russia. The final result must be to repeat the mistakes of the former Soviet Union. With Russia's comprehensive strength far worse than the former Soviet Union, all-round overall long-term confrontation is easier said than done.
If eastern Ukraine is conquered, NATO can separately announce that West Ukraine will directly join NATO, which means that Ukraine has become East and West Germany, and disguised acceptance of NATO’s garrison of troops in West Ukraine. Therefore, Putin's trump card is to defeat the enemy without fighting, and use military pressure to force Europe and the United States to sign an alliance under the city. As for the hundreds of billions of orders received from partners, it is mainly energy contracts, and it is the supply of the next ten years. These orders were originally planned to sign, but they are now overdrafted in advance. If NATO Russia implements a full-scale military confrontation, the 100 billion-dollar installment contract is simply not enough.
Moreover, after the trade war, the partners themselves were affected by a combination of factors such as economic decline, shortage of funds, recession in the manufacturing industry, serious unemployment, withdrawal of foreign capital, the impact of the epidemic, the deterioration of international relations, and the deterioration of overseas investment, and their economic strength was under pressure. If China support Russia's annexation of Ukraine in the first place, it would be tantamount to direct confrontation with Europe and the United States under the coercion of Russia. How the final result refers to historical experience will have the answer. The U.S. has warned that if China backs Russia, economic sanctions must cover her, which is why Putin almost didn’t fly to there because the partner didn’t quite meet his conditions. So he didn't eat famous Peking Duck specially prepared and hurried back to Russia, otherwise he would still have enough time to take a bite.
As for the epidemic, Russia is the country with the worst deterioration. At the beginning of the epidemic, the mayor of Moscow said that it was almost out of control. Now the situation has worsened and it is difficult to deal with it. This is also one of the reasons why Putin took risks in Ukraine. Inciting national sentiment and reducing the pressure on his own internal governance, in fact, this is his tried and tested method for many years. In addition, the United States hastily withdrawn its troops from Central Asia and devoted all its forces to the Asia-Pacific, weakening NATO's strength in Europe against its new rival. In addition, being affected by the epidemic provides Putin with a rare opportunity.
The military strategic focus of Europe and the United States was in Europe after World War II, and later the Middle East is now returning to the Asia-Pacific. The withdrawal of troops from Central Asia has created a vacuum and the military pressure in the Taiwan Strait has intensified. It is difficult to take into account Putin's attack in the short and medium term. Now Putin will continue to exert military pressure to force NATO to submit in the short term. So far, Europe and the United States have not fully deployed organized troops in Ukraine. Compared with the last Russian-Ukrainian conflict, troops from various countries led by the United Kingdom were directly deployed there. If NATO directly sends troops, to Putin, it will immediately fall into a negative position. Although the military force deployed by the other party is certainly very limited, if it is sent to Russia for elimination, even killing a small number of soldiers will mean a full-scale war.
Now Europe and the United States are buying time to respond, and finally direct military forces intervene. Of course, certain risk assessments are required, but once a decision is made, Putin will definitely become passive. Whether it is a full-scale war or a local war, it is not conducive to Putin's permanent power in the long run. Even if Ukraine is defeated, it will face a long-term resistance supported by Europe and the United States. Terrorist attacks in Russia are indispensable, and there are lessons from Afghanistan.
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