Trump is set to launch another trade war, imposing a 100% tariff on China. The main trigger was the U.S. decision to impose additional fees on Chinese cargo ships, which led China to retaliate by strictly controlling rare earth exports and restricting exports of industrial synthetic diamonds, magnets, lithium batteries, and hard materials. Trump subsequently posted again, claiming the situation was not serious and hinting at a desire to ease tensions with China. His so-called 100% tariff was merely a spontaneous remark, unknown even to U.S. government officials, just a venting on Twitter that does not represent the U.S. government's stance. China dismissed it with disdain and has not yet proposed counter-tariff measures. Trump, a so-called president with no credibility, flip-flopping, and decisions driven not by reason but by his personal whims, initially aimed to create leverage before meeting Chinese leaders. Now, his miscalculation has backfired, leaving him with no cards to play, forcing him to lower himself to seek China's favor. It’s not the U.S. trying to decouple from China anymore;
China has actively chosen to cut ties with the U.S. Many countries possess rare earths, but none match China’s production scale, refining technology, price variety, or output capacity. China has developed a complete rare earth industrial chain, while other countries have barely tapped their resources. Even with full investment now, it would take 10-15 years to build a basic scale. Moreover, China fully controls rare earth prices, making competition impossible since its rare earths are state-controlled resources, priced by directive rather than profit.Pakistan is building ports to export rare earths to the U.S., but refining still relies on China. U.S. rare earth companies also depend on Chinese technology to process raw materials. Without rare earths, Europe and the U.S. would halt production of fighter jets, nuclear submarines, cruise missiles, chips, and the entire semiconductor industry, as these cannot be manufactured without them. Continued sanctions on China’s high-end chips would ultimately leave the U.S. without chips, and Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan would also cease production.
Crucially, the products China banned from export—synthetic diamonds for industrial machine tools, lithium batteries for new energy development, magnets, and hard materials for manufacturing—are items the U.S. and Western countries cannot produce independently. Charging fees on Chinese cargo ships triggered China’s retaliation, and mutual sanctions could disrupt global shipping, slowing the world economy.China accounts for 16 of the world’s top 20 ports, manufactures over 60% of global ships, and handles 30% of global shipping volume. If Chinese goods stop shipping due to extra costs or rerouting, U.S. inflation will rise, and its economy will deteriorate, especially under Trump’s pressure to cut interest rates. Charging fees on China-related cargo ships is essentially another form of tariff. Despite Trump’s two trade wars, China has prepared comprehensively over nearly a decade. U.S.-China trade, suppressed by Trump, now accounts for less than 10% of China’s total foreign trade, with a 7% increase in trade with other countries last year and record-high trade surpluses, including with the U.S. Objectively, even if U.S.-China trade stops, it wouldn’t be a fatal blow to China, which could reroute trade through other countries.
As an authoritarian state, China is indifferent to domestic impacts. Conversely, the U.S. could lose midterm elections if adversaries stop buying its soybeans, corn, and wheat.In April, Trump manipulated financial markets through tariff factors, profiting his family and realizing his “Make America Great Again” plan. This situation is similar, likely with prior stock market bets, but China’s aggressive response leaves Trump’s next move uncertain. He claims no need to meet Chinese leaders again, but the real issue is that they have no interest in easing tensions with him. The so-called “Great America” bill has left the U.S. government with a $5 trillion deficit, truly broke, resorting to haphazard tariffs on other countries, including cargo ship fees, to grab money. China’s sudden strike shows the tariff-driven trade war is over. Unless Trump stops creating chaos in the international free trade system, China will bypass the U.S. to build a new global trade order.Beyond exporting dollars and military forces, the U.S. produces no domestically manufactured goods. Global trade won’t stop without the U.S., but without global trade, the U.S. will lose its international dominance, and the dollar will lose its global currency status, ending U.S. hegemony. Just as the Russia-Ukraine war cost the U.S. its NATO leadership, trade wars will isolate it globally.
Without rare earths, Western military industries will halt, semiconductors will collapse, shipping will face a fatal blow, renewable energy will stall, agriculture will decline, and inflation will trigger economic collapse. Without rare earths, there are no semiconductors, no chips, no AI—devastating the U.S.’s remaining high-tech and AI industries and crashing financial markets.China, without U.S. soybeans, pork, oil, or chips, remains unaffected, producing domestically or buying elsewhere. U.S. consumers, however, cannot survive short- or medium-term without Chinese goods. Trump’s second term has been reckless, aiming for his family’s “greatness” rather than America’s revival. His actions—raising tariffs, disrupting global trade, supporting Russia over Ukraine, undermining NATO, attempting land grabs, manipulating markets for personal gain, weakening military civilian oversight, ignoring U.S. traditions for lifelong presidency, and installing loyalists for authoritarian rule—are driving America’s decline, not its greatness. Yet, many ignorant Americans still support Trump, believing his shameless lies.
China’s proactive strike targets not America but Trump, putting the U.S. in a passive position. Whether it’s financial oligarchs, the deep state, or military-industrial bosses, the U.S. must urgently find a suitable replacement, following its historical tradition to resolve the issue of an incompetent president. Trump, a failed businessman, amateur politician, and foolish clown, has reached his final moment to exit the global political stage.
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