三上悠亜

 

普總現在又是下跪又是亲吻古蘭經就差上吊了

 

烏克蘭攻入庫爾斯克後如入無人之境，當地本就兵力不多而且烏軍出其不意，導致俄軍反應不及，現在有十幾個旅的烏軍主力部隊配合地面裝甲和空中掩護，已經佔領了1千多平方公里的土地，並且還在不斷擴展中。期待已久的夏季攻勢正式開始，之前俄羅斯2萬多軍隊展開對哈爾科夫的攻勢是虛張聲勢，現在烏軍的反攻才是真正拉開序幕。在政治上來說攻入庫爾斯克對普京來說壓力很大，入侵別國的俄羅斯居然反被入侵了，而且庫爾斯克在二戰時就是以德俄坦克大戰，最終以蘇聯戰勝而聞名，現在被烏克蘭的坦克裝甲車碾壓，普京在政治上難於給國民做交待，在國際上烏克蘭攻入庫爾斯克給盟友增強了信心。

 

在軍事上所謂新戰場導致俄羅斯騎虎難下，如果從烏東烏南戰爭抽調大量主力北上清繳，導致戰場出現空隙會引發烏克蘭反攻，現在靠堆積大量兵力火力，犬牙交錯密不透風的陣地對峙戰，一旦有主力部隊成建制撤走，不但會減輕對方的壓力而且會被反擊。如果不從正面戰場抽調主力，僅靠東拼西湊的地方部隊根本抵擋不了烏克蘭的攻勢，現在的辦法只能是從各戰區分別抽調個別主力回援，甚至要從飛地加里寧格勒的部隊中抽調2個師，從當地到庫爾斯克最少有1千5百多公里，即便部隊經過長途跋涉到達後修整也需要時間。烏克蘭突入當地除了開闢新戰場外，另一個重要目的就是圍點打援，通過打擊俄羅斯援軍來消耗俄軍的有生力量，畢竟無論在情報偵查，武器裝備，空中掩護等方面烏軍都有一定優勢，而且對本次作戰已經準備許久，現在俄軍增援部隊都受到了打擊。烏軍只要控制住E38公路俄軍很難進入。反擊部隊集結不起來俄軍就不能展開反攻，況且烏軍已經在當地建造工事打算長期駐守，並且庫爾斯克臨近烏克蘭邊境後勤不成問題。

 

烏軍現在兵分三路，左路控制俄羅斯輸往歐洲的天然氣設施，右路控制核電設備和電廠，中路突進擴大戰果。況且此地距離莫斯科也不過4百多公里，裝甲部隊2天就能到，戰鬥機可以立刻到達，因此整體形勢對俄羅斯不利，而且烏軍已經對其他數州展開騷擾，況且澤連斯基始終關注的還是克裡米亞。現在對於普京來講很不利，他最近連續到了車臣，南奧塞梯，亞塞拜然等地做秀，又是親吻古蘭經又是到戰爭遇難者墓地下跪，然後給最大盟友施壓要求派兵增援并且再多給錢。朝鮮和波斯能給些裝備就不錯了，真能救命的就靠最大鄰國了。據說世界第二經濟體已經派出18000人的部隊，以紅十字會的名義出兵參戰，但即便以志願軍的名義也不可能立刻派到最前線直接參加戰鬥，最多是填補一下戰線空缺便於俄軍調動部隊。大規模出動軍隊抗美援俄目前根本不可能，如果被西方嚴厲制裁整個國民經濟將會崩潰導致內亂。

 

況且真如同當年百萬部隊裝備完成，開進到遠東地區然後轉到烏東南作戰，部隊一旦武裝起來進行調動，很難保證軍隊不發生倒戈和嘩變，並且成為推翻政權的反對力量。況且軍隊承平日久貪腐嚴重戰鬥力有限，真到戰場作戰戰敗的可能性非常之大，況且即便能夠部份扭轉局面，但整體上俄羅斯被長期消耗後衰亡的大局不會改變。正式出兵也會導致北約如法炮製，北約幾十個成員國加上國際上的盟友都會參戰，如果就會發展成為世界大戰，而且俄羅斯最大盟友的本土也會遭到攻擊，該國最高層對軍隊的控制本就有限，最終發展到內外受壓恐怕就真難以為繼了。

熟女 - Yui Natsuki 夏来唯

 

車路士美國瘋子老板該買不買亂賣不該賣難道是在洗黑錢

 

車路士在新賽季前又在市場上亂買一通，然後繼續清理前朝舊臣，加上預備隊上調的年輕球員，球隊居然堆積了40多人，如果把外租的和還未需歸隊的算上超過50人，不要說訓練連換衣服都沒地方。然而，球隊的前鋒和後衛線並未引入重量級球員，簡而言之就是前面沒有會進球的，後面沒有會防守的，全隊沒有領軍人物，讓一支青年軍是爭冠不可能，磨合則需要更多時間。

 

上賽季末經歷了一系列比賽後，部份年輕球員崛起球隊開始成型，所以取得了相對不錯的成績。現在幾乎又要推倒重來而且教練也換新人，從上場對曼城的比賽看，畢竟是對陣英超冠軍，而且對方教練本就是師傅，但整體場面不算太失禮，球隊扳平的機會不是沒有，對攻也算頗有聲色，賀蘭的進球是憑藉個人能力，高瓦傑治是神來之筆，他本不是能進球的球員，但整體上藍軍顯得雜亂無章法，看不出教練前場高位逼搶帶來的效果，反而是後衛仍然不斷犯錯。最主要的還是鋒線沒有超級中鋒能進球的人物，前後投入13多億英鎊中前場買幾個安巴比和內瑪律都夠了，後場情況也是如此。

 

買一堆黑人年輕球員，然後將本隊青訓趕走，雖然是為了彌補支出，前朝球員怎麼賣都是純收入，但買入的新人雖有幾個已嶄露頭角，但整體上按比例能夠打出來的也不多，最起碼連出場機會都不能保證。全隊僅剩的幾位有經驗的所謂老球員，斯達寧和薛維爾等都會被趕走來補賬。新老闆的各種神操作撲朔迷離令人費解，違反足球基本常識下外界搞不懂目的到底為何，如果是為爭冠不太像該買的都沒買，如果是為賺錢支出又遠比收入多，至於球隊成績雖然只是經歷了一個賽季，藍軍的混亂局面完全沒有停止而有惡化的跡象，歸根結底老闆不是不想搞好球隊，實在是他完全不懂足球，而且手下負責球隊管理的團隊更不懂足球，而且是英國足球。

 

堆積大量優秀年輕球員真打出來幾個，既可以提高成績又能轉賣賺錢，也許在美國棒球隊可能因此成功，但在英國經營足球有難度，即便是買入的年輕球員年齡很小，多數價格也不算太貴。雖然有幾個南美的小隊員是高價買入，但都是已證明是有能力打出來的，但整體上這種做法是否正確，在英超還不能得到證明。賽季初的混亂局面可以預料，而且球會還在不斷操作球員的進出，初期的比賽成績不可能穩定，但球隊的後續發展也未必很悲觀。多餘的球員遲早會被賣走，新晉的球員多數潛質優厚，而且最新引入中的7人馬上就可以使用，有經驗的最少有5人。

 

美國老闆肯花錢就可以，經營足球最重要的就是錢，持續投入經歷一段時間必定有收貨，即便不成功也會累積經驗以後少犯錯。車仔多年來都是帶領英超風氣之先的，引入歐陸打法，聘請外國教練，極少本土球員，頻繁更換教練，使用年輕教練，青訓計程車等等。誰知道這次又會搞出哪種新花樣，況且美國老闆身後的中東財團，對花十幾億英鎊更本不在乎。現在雖然只能通過觀察來預測球隊本賽季的發展，但所謂亂中有序最後結果估計也不會差到哪裡去，就是開頭有些雜亂無章罷了。

三上悠亜

 

三上悠亜

 

世衛最新警告多達84個國家新冠病毒不是消失而是惡化了

 

儘管人們認為新冠已經是過去式，世界衛生組織(WHO)8月13日指出至少84個國家的疫情正在升溫，包括美洲、歐亞部分地區，連近期的巴黎奧運都有許多選手檢測陽性。美國的病毒監測指標已經出現警訊，但目前疏於檢測及接種疫苗，可能醞釀出更危險的病毒變種。《華盛頓郵報》報導，世衛流行病學家范科霍芙(Maria Van Kerkhove)表示，新冠疫苗覆蓋率如此之低，如果有更嚴重的變異出現，那麼高危險群非常有可能患重症。

廢水監測的新冠病毒濃度正在上升，范科霍芙表示每個監測站目前估計的流行程度比基準線高出2至20倍。據聯邦疾病防治中心(CDC)，在2022年1月Omicron變種高峰期時廢水樣本的病毒濃度達到最高峰，約高於基準線23倍；到今年4、5月，全國大多數監測站的濃度僅略高於基準，但6、7月已上升至7倍，增幅相當大，不過還是低於全國最大規模疫情爆發時的速度。世衛數據指出截至7月21日，俄國的病例數居全球首位，但美國報告的死亡人數最多。截至7月27日，美國急診室中11歲及以下兒童的新冠發病率最高，略高於75歲及以上成年人。

美國醫院協會(American Hospital Association)病人安全政策副總佛斯特(Nancy Foster)表示加州一些醫院報告稱新冠住院人數高於預期，患者住院時間比最近幾波疫情更長。當局可以監控因新冠而住院或死亡的病例，但準確追蹤病例總數是個艱難挑戰，因為許多人感染病毒後選擇不檢測、不接受醫療護理。由於缺乏總病例數據，研究人員也難以評估這波疫情變種的嚴重程度。

這波夏季新冠潮也暗示下半年的病情可能更加嚴重，因為這類呼吸道疾病如流感、呼吸道融合病毒(RSV)通常好發於秋冬，提前出現高峰令人擔憂。佛斯特稱醫院最擔心人們不接種流感、RSV或新冠疫苗，未來幾個月可能會再次看到大量患者擠滿病床。一些地區制定的反蒙面政策更無助於現況，這些禁令雖然將醫用口罩列入例外情況，但人們依然擔心戴口罩會受到騷擾。

 

熟女 - 一花美沙 - Misa Ichibana

 

Ukrainian raids Kursk, Putin is confused about who invaded whom now

 

Ukraine has suddenly invaded Russia's Kursk Region and has broken through dozens of kilometers of defenses and is now starting to build fortifications. The long-disturbed Ukrainian summer offensive has officially begun, but in an unexpected way. It would not be an exaggeration to call this attack an invasion, as the Kursk region was famous for the Soviet-German tank battles of World War II, and it is politically unfavorable for Russia to invade a country that has been invading Ukraine for more than two years, but is now being invaded by the enemy instead. 

For the United States, even if Trump came to power to force Ukraine to peace talks, if you can hold on to Kursk, undoubtedly the future of an additional bargaining chip. From a military point of view the so-called surprise attack emphasizes the strength of the attack, the speed and suddenness, and does not require too many personnel, if the gap is opened smoothly, you can then according to the specific circumstances to strengthen the personnel and equipment is not a problem, and the fact that the Ukrainian army is also so operated, and now there are already more troops into the war.

  

The Chechen troops that were defending the area only made a token stand and then retreated, and the new recruits that were stationed there, who were not capable of fighting, surrendered. Therefore, the suddenness of this offensive achieved unexpected results, and several hundred square kilometers of land were captured in a very short period of time. There are nuclear facilities and power plants, as well as a natural gas pipeline hub to Europe, which would be very favorable to the Ukrainian army if they took control of the area. Russia did not expect the Ukrainian army to take the initiative to attack its own territory. It would take at least 1-2 weeks for troops to be sent back from the Northern Military District and the front, but now tens of thousands of troops have been mobilized from all over the country and are on their way to Kursk in a hurry. The Ukrainians are building fortifications and deploying more troops, as well as ground armor, rockets, anti-aircraft missiles, and drones, so the siege is a certainty. 

The Russian army is now reinforced by civilian vehicles from the road, not even tanks and armored vehicles and heavy equipment, short-term expulsion of the Ukrainian army is likely to have a certain degree of difficulty. At least a few main divisions and armaments from the front line would be needed to cope with this sneak attack, but this would lead to a break in the battle line. Although the Russians have a numerical advantage in fighting a battle of attrition in the front line, it would be difficult for the Ukrainians to gain an advantage, and it would be detrimental to the Russians to move from a battle of positions to a battle of movement.

  

Kursk is only 500 kilometers away from Moscow, it doesn't take too long to use road armor to advance, and it took Prigogine only a few days to force Moscow. Although the Ukrainian army doesn't have any sign of hitting Moscow yet, it is inevitable that they will force the Russians to divide their forces through the war of movement by opening up a new battlefield. The Ukrainian army's main target is still Crimea, and it can launch an attack at any time. Kursk can be attacked both in and out, and if the Russians split their forces, they can attack Crimea, and the air defense facilities there have basically been cleared, the Black Sea fleet has been withdrawn, and the air bases have been cleared, so as long as they cut off the land and sea traffic, they will be able to achieve their goal. 

It is now up to the Ukrainian army to take the next step. The summer offensive into Kursk is not only a surprise, but also puts a lot of pressure on the Russian army. If the Russians slow down, the Ukrainians will expand their attack area, and if they try to divert their troops to help them, it will relieve the pressure on the eastern part of the country. If they keep sending a limited number of troops to rescue them, they will be gradually eliminated by the Ukrainians.

  

The political pressure on Vladimir Putin is also very great now, as Ukraine's successful sneak attack will open up other new wars, and the Russian army, with its own armament depletion, is basically unable to do anything about Ukraine's equipment advantage, and is not capable of effectively coping with it at all. And Ukraine is gradually gaining air superiority, so for the reinforcement of Kursk is more difficult, the face of the Ukrainian army equipped with Seamaster, F-16, drones, ground armor and other advanced equipment, how to rescue Kursk is a big problem, Putin KGB origin will not be unaware of the Kasimov claimed to have solved the Ukrainian army's lies. But how to deal with the invasion of Russia is indeed a new problem for Putin.

 

烏軍入侵俄國庫爾斯克打起霍家迷蹤拳普京問到底誰侵略誰

 

烏克蘭突然攻入俄羅斯庫爾斯克州，並且突破了幾十公里防線，現在開始修建防禦工事。一直擾攘多時的烏克蘭夏季攻勢正式開始，只是以一種出人意料的方式進行。本次攻擊稱之為侵略也不過份，庫爾斯克州在二戰中曾經以蘇德兩國的坦克大戰而聞名，對於俄羅斯來講在政治上對普京不利，入侵烏克蘭2年多的國家，現在反而被敵方入侵了。對於美國即便特朗普上臺逼迫烏克蘭和談，如果能夠堅守住庫爾斯克，無疑是將來多了一個談判籌碼。從軍事角度看此次突擊雖然有多個番號的烏軍旅出現，但人數不多1個半團1千多人，裝備有坦克裝甲車火箭炮和無人機等，所謂突襲強調攻擊力度，速度和突發性，並不需要太多的人員，如果順利打開缺口，可以再按照具體情況加強人員和裝備也沒問題，而事實上烏軍也是如此操作，現在已經有更多部隊投入戰爭。

 

原本防守的車臣部隊只是象徵性抵擋一下就撤退，而駐守當地的是沒有戰鬥力的新兵部隊也順勢投降了，因此本次進攻由於突然性取得了意想不到的戰果，極短時間內佔領了幾百平方公里的土地。該地有研發核武的機構和核電廠，還有通往歐洲的天然氣管道樞紐，烏軍如果控制後會非常有利。對於俄羅斯來講沒有料到烏克蘭會主動攻擊本土，從北方軍區和前方抽調部隊回援，至少需要1-2周的時間，現在從各處調集了1個師上萬人的部隊，正在緊急開赴庫爾斯克。烏克蘭正在當地修建防禦工事並且增調部隊，而且地面裝甲，火箭炮，防空導彈和無人機等一應俱全，所謂圍點打援是肯定的。而俄軍現在從公路乘坐民用車輛增援，甚至沒有坦克裝甲車和重裝備，短期內驅逐烏軍恐怕有一定難度。至少需要從前線抽調幾個主力師和軍備，才能應付本次對方的偷襲，但如此會導致戰線斷裂。俄軍雖然有人員數量優勢，在前線打陣地消耗戰，烏克蘭難以取得優勢，現在如果大幅調動兵力，從陣地戰打成運動戰則對俄軍不利。

 

庫爾斯克距離莫斯科也就5百公里的路程，利用公路裝甲突進也不需要太長時間，普裡戈金當時只用了幾天時間就能夠威逼莫斯科，雖然烏軍從目前看還沒有打到莫斯科的跡象，但是通過運動戰開闢新戰場逼迫俄軍分兵是必然的。烏軍的重點目標仍然是克裡米亞，而且可以隨時發動攻擊。打擊庫爾斯克可進可退，如果俄軍分兵則可以攻擊克裡米亞，而且當地的防空設施基本被清除，黑海艦隊撤離，空軍基地也被清空，只要切斷海陸交通就能夠達到目的。現在就看烏軍的下一步行動，夏季攻勢聲東擊西攻入庫爾斯克不但出其不意，而且對俄軍造成很大壓力。如果俄軍行動緩慢則烏軍會擴大攻擊範圍，如果大力分兵救援則會緩解烏東戰場壓力。如果採取添油戰術不斷派數量有限的部隊救援，則會被烏克蘭圍點打援逐步消滅。

 

現在對於普京的政治壓力也很大，烏克蘭偷襲得手還會開闢其他新戰爭，而且俄軍隨著己方的軍備消耗，對於烏軍的裝備優勢基本上毫無辦法，根本沒有能力有效應付。而且烏克蘭正在逐步取得空優，如此對於增援庫爾斯克難度更大，面對裝備海馬斯，F-16，無人機，地面裝甲等先進軍備的烏克蘭軍隊，如何救援庫爾斯克是個大問題，恐怕普京克克勃出身不會不清楚，克拉西莫夫稱已解決烏軍的謊言。不過如何處理俄羅斯被入侵，對於普京來講的確是個新問題。

三上悠亜

 

円ちゃみ Madoka Chami

 

Either Trump is assassinated and the war continues, or Zelensky is killed and the war ends

 Zelensky held a welcoming ceremony for the newly arrived F-16s. The newly arrived fighters are not even painted, but labelled as Ukraine's new fighters, and it is estimated that by the end of the year, there will be 20 fighters, and the total number of the fighters has already exceeded 100, not including the other models donated by the European countries in the future. In fact, for Ukraine, how many fighters can be satisfied, not counting the various types of fighters produced in Europe, that is, the United States retired and sealed fighters there are thousands, as for the pilots, the West has already made it clear that it can be resolved through the recruitment of volunteer pilots. 

 

Therefore, the F-16s are just a cover, and the announcement of the official participation in the war is to observe Russia's subsequent reaction. If, as always, it is a verbal nuclear threat, then the increase in the number of follow-on fighters will be accelerated. If Russia overreacts, then the opposite will happen. Therefore, there is no doubt that Ukraine will gain air superiority in the future, and the timing will be completely controlled by Europe and the US. 

 

For Ukraine, apart from the uncertainty of Donald Trump, there is no question of the war continuing in any other way. Funding and ammunition continue to be replenished, more advanced and targeted weapons continue to flow in, and the two sides are now at a stalemate, with neither side able to make any more progress on the battlefield. At this point in the Russian-Ukrainian war, the most important thing for all parties is the final result of the US election, which will have a decisive impact on the course of the war. However, it is certain that the war will continue for a long time, and even if the United States withdraws from Europe and responds independently, it is still capable of continuing the war. Russian now it is merely using its relative advantages in firepower and troops to confront the Ukrainian army through battle of the line. 

 

The situation for Ukraine is that with the European and American remote-attack weapons and drones, they can conduct remote-attacks on important targets such as military facilities, energy production, arsenals, military warehouses, transportation hubs, command centers, etc. in the Russian hinterland, and make use of the equipment advantage to focus on attacking the Russian air defense system and various types of aero planes of the Air Force, so as to continue to weaken the Russian Air Force's equipment and combat power, even though they are restricted by Europe and the United States at present. Even under the current restrictions imposed by Europe and the United States, good results have been achieved. 

 

The previously expected summer offensives of both sides did not start, the Russian army was affected by the setback of the Kharkov offensive, while the Ukrainians kept their eyes on Crimea. Now that the Black Sea fleet has fled, the air defense system near Crimea has been hit repeatedly, and there is no technical problem to cut off the land traffic between the Kerch Bridge and Crimea, and the F-16s are already in place. The Ukrainian army is now building up its strength to further deplete the enemy and then launch an attack on Crimea at the critical time. As long as recover Crimea, it means a political victory. 

 

The so-called 10-plus years of Russian-Ukrainian border conflicts that led to the final outbreak of the war originally originated from Crimea, and the real purpose of the Russian invasion of the three eastern states of Ukraine is to link up with Crimea on land, so that they can control the sea port facing Europe. This is also the reason why Russia fought with Turkey for many years over Crimea, and the so-called NATO eastward expansion is just an excuse. As long as it controls Crimea and its eastern states, Russia can not only ensure the safety of Crimea, but also annex Ukraine and Poland, which has been annihilated many times in history, as the next step. 

 

Russia's war resources are over-consumed, in the current national military production system is impossible to make up for it, relying on foreign allies, ammunition and equipment, although it can solve the immediate emergency, but the main thing is still to see the Russian army in the battlefield whether it can achieve a decisive advantage. However, from the current situation, it seems that Russia has only gained some sporadic tactical advantages at most. And the most important thing is to look at Russia's subsequent war trend, from the present point of view there is no clear direction, completely is the state of fighting and watching. Putin can do nothing to reverse the current stalemate, both sides believe that long-term war consumption is inevitable, as long as the parties can maintain the situation is already an acceptable result. 

 

The final change in the course of the war or depend on the results of the U.S. election, such as Trump came to power in order to help Russia get rid of passive, he will certainly take extreme measures to end the war in the name of the Ukraine to carry out the suppression, if Zelensky refused to comply, or even become the focus of the target, and Russia will become the biggest beneficiary, not only can Putin maintain permanent rule, from the recent Russian armistice offer chip From the recent Russian offer of a truce, as long as the conditions for the so-called co-rule of Crimea are met, the two sides will be able to start subsequent negotiations.

 

Trump has a lot of means to put pressure on Ukraine. In the long run, Russia will definitely lose if the war between Russia and Ukraine continues, but if Trump is elected, the ultimate losers will be Ukraine and Europe. Now that the election is approaching, there are more than one sniper rifle aimed at Trump. As long as he is in power again, it will definitely lead to the fact that he will never have another full 4 years.