近藤あさみ

 

本郷柚巴

 

白濱美兎

 

新藤まなみ

 

大葉めも

 

Khamenei faces treason and heresy if he surrenders, decapitation by Bunker-busters if he doesn't

 

Just as Trump promised to give Iran two weeks to consider surrender, he immediately deployed strategic bombers carrying bunker-busting missiles to destroy three of Iran's most critical nuclear weapons facilities. Although Iran claimed the losses were minimal and that they had already made prior transfers, there is no doubt that Iran's nuclear weapons development has suffered a severe setback, making recovery in the short to medium term highly unlikely. Israel's basic objective in this attack has been achieved.

From the current situation, it is clear that Iran was completely unaware of Israel's surprise attack, resulting in the decapitation of key military leaders and nuclear weapons experts. Therefore, it is impossible for Iran to have made adequate concealment or transfer measures for all its nuclear facilities in advance. However, even so, as long as the Iranian government maintains its rule, completely destroying its nuclear weapons development is unrealistic—it would merely require more time to rebuild. The current situation is actually more complex than before the nuclear facilities were destroyed. 

Since the United States has already entered the conflict, it will not easily back down. The so-called precondition of Iran's unconditional surrender simply does not exist. If Khamenei were to surrender, it would be tantamount to treason and a betrayal of Islam, stripping him of his divine legitimacy and turning him into a public enemy to be purged. If he does not surrender, he risks being targeted for assassination. His only option is to go into hiding and avoid making public statements, but retaliatory actions against Israel will not cease in the short to medium term.

In theory, blockading the Strait of Hormuz is not technically difficult, as its narrowest point is only 30–50 kilometers wide. Deploying mines could disrupt normal maritime traffic, halting oil exports and severely impacting energy-importing nations like Europe, China, India, Japan, and South Korea. This would cause a global economic shock and soaring oil prices, inevitably leading to a coalition of powers uniting to decisively address the Iran issue. Moreover, Iran's government relies almost entirely on oil exports for revenue. A prolonged blockade would cripple the regime's ability to sustain itself, making such a strategy unsustainable. 

It would also affect other Gulf nations. Iran's proxies, such as the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, and terrorist groups in Syria and Yemen, all require substantial financial and military support to resist U.S. and Israeli strikes. Iran's allies, China and Russia, are unlikely to intervene directly. Putin currently depends heavily on Trump to maintain the status quo in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and with U.S.-China trade tensions only recently cooling, neither power is willing to risk a confrontation with the U.S. over Iran. Thus, Iran must rely on its own capabilities to navigate this crisis.

Given that the U.S. has been drawn into the conflict by Israel, it is determined to resolve the Iran issue once and for all. The demand for unconditional surrender is essentially a strategy to force Iran into a corner. Iran's missiles and drones will eventually be depleted, and once its war resources are exhausted, its ability to resist will collapse. While ground forces are not necessary to topple an authoritarian regime, this does not prevent the rise of domestic opposition within Iran. The U.S. has even promoted the Pahlavi dynasty's heir, an American citizen, as a potential successor. Regardless of whether Khamenei surrenders, the leaders of Iran's theocratic regime will be targeted for elimination, and domestic opposition will be supported to establish a pro-U.S. government as quickly as possible. For now, the U.S. and Israel will avoid deploying ground troops, focusing instead on air strikes to deplete Iran's war resources and energy. So far, apart from launching ballistic missile attacks on Israeli civilians, Iran's retaliatory options have been extremely limited.

Air strikes from both sides will likely continue for some time, with all parties observing subsequent developments. Regardless, the current situation is advantageous for Israel. The day Iran successfully develops nuclear weapons would mark the beginning of Israel's destruction. Now, with the crisis averted and the U.S. taking the lead, Israel can step back and observe, leaving the stage to President Trump. After a series of foreign policy missteps, Trump's decisive action against Iran will bring him significant political gains. For Iran, the optimal window for negotiation has passed. It lacks the strength to wage all-out war and can only take things one step at a time. The best strategy would be to seek mediation from allies like China and Russia to preserve the regime, avoiding reckless actions that could lead to catastrophic consequences. Otherwise, the inevitable outcome will be an early meeting with Allah.

 

伊朗哈梅内伊投降是叛國叛教不投降將被鑽地炸彈斬首現在只能靠禱告了

 

特朗普在允諾給伊朗2周時間考慮投降的話音未落，立刻用戰略轟炸機攜帶鑽地導彈炸毀了伊朗3処最重要的核武設施，雖然伊朗稱所受損失不大並且已經提前進行了轉移，但毫無疑問伊朗的核武發展大受打擊，很難在中短期內有所恢復，以色列本次攻擊的基本目的達到了。

從目前的情勢分析伊朗根本沒有察覺到以色列的偷襲，導致主要軍事首腦和核武專家被大量斬首，因此不可能事前就對全部核武設施做出適當的隱蔽轉移措施，但即便如此只要伊朗政府仍能維持統治，徹底摧毀對方的核武發展也不現實，無非是需要更多時間重建而已。現在的局勢其實比沒有摧毀核武前更複雜，美國既然已經參戰就絕不會輕易罷手。所謂伊朗無條件投降的前提根本就不存在，哈梅內伊投降就是叛國背叛伊斯蘭教，將會失去神性成爲人民公敵被清算，如果不投降則會被重點清除斬首。他只能隱藏起來絕不輕易表態，但針對以色列的報復中短期內不會停止。

理論上封鎖霍爾木茲海峽在技術上難度不高，最窄処30-50公里而已，佈置水雷都能阻止航道的正常運作，如此石油輸出停止會導致歐洲，中印，日韓等的能源輸入大國備受打擊，世界經濟受到重大影響油價飛升，最後結果必是各方聯手徹底解決伊朗問題。何況現在伊朗政府的唯一收入就是石油出口，如果停頓將會導致政權無法維繫，因此長期封鎖海峽幾乎不可能。何況還會影響到其他海灣國家。伊朗支持的胡塞武裝，真主黨，哈馬斯，敘伊亞，也門恐怖組織等，哪一個不需要巨額金錢武器援助，否則根本不能對美以的打擊。盟友中俄進行直接幹預也不可能，普京現在極度依賴特朗普維持俄烏戰爭局面，中美貿易戰剛有些冷卻的跡象，現在誰都不會爲了伊朗與美國拉破臉皮，因此伊朗目前只能依靠自身力量應付危局。

從實際情況看美國既然被以色列拉下了水，就是打算徹底解決伊朗問題，所謂無條件投降無非就是逼迫伊朗對抗到底，導彈無人機總有消耗完的一天，伊朗消耗完戰爭資源對抗也就結束了。雖然不出動地面部隊不可能推翻集權統治，但阻礙不了伊朗本土反對派的崛起，美國甚至推出了巴列維王朝的嫡長子作爲後繼者，他可是擁有美國護照的美國人。所以無論哈梅內伊投降與否伊朗神權政府的主腦都會被定點清除，伊朗本土的反對派將會被扶持，並且儘快建立親美政府。目前美以不會出動地面部隊仍以空中打擊爲主，盡量消耗伊朗的戰爭資源和能量。直到目前爲止除了發射彈道導彈攻擊以色列平民，伊朗的報復手段非常有限。

雙方的空襲仍會持續一段時間，並且各方都在觀察事態的後續發展。但無論如何現在的局面都對以色列有利，伊朗核武器研發成功之日，就是以色列滅國之時，現在已經危機解除美國下場，以色上可以退隱靜觀其變，讓美國總統特朗普唱主角的時候到了。對於特朗普在面對他臺後一系列對外失敗操作之後，終於在打擊伊朗的問題上的決斷，將會帶給他巨大的政治利益。現在對於伊朗來説談判最佳時機已過，發動全面戰爭實力不足，只能走一步看一步，上策還是要盡量爭取中俄等盟友從中調停，盡量以維持住政權為前提，不要採取魚死網破的過激行動，否則最後的結果必然是向真主提前報到了。

東雲うみ