白濱美兎

 

本庄铃

 

村島未悠

 

Trump’s Tariff Tangle: Secretly Playing Timekeeper for Putin’s Playbook

 

The purpose of Trump initiating a global tariff war is to alleviate pressure on Putin, shifting international focus away from Russia. This would pave the way for lifting all sanctions suppressing Russia. From a 24-hour ceasefire to the scramble for Ukraine’s mineral resources, to the disputes between the White House and Zelenskyy, the Russia-Ukraine war has reached a delicate stage. The war has paused, but neither side wants to stop fighting.

The distance from Moscow to Kyiv is only 200 kilometers—a three-hour drive on the highway—yet the war has dragged on for three years without reaching Kyiv. Although NATO has dissolved and the U.S. has withdrawn, Europe’s economic and military aid to Ukraine has not decreased. Under the pretext of peacekeeping, Europe could even send troops directly into Ukraine. The war has transformed Ukraine into Europe’s most powerful military force, with 100 divisions of ground troops, exhausting Russia—the world’s second military power—for three years, causing nearly a million casualties and depleting much of the military legacy inherited from the Soviet Union. Trump’s attempt to force a ceasefire through personal will is not accepted by all parties. The so-called “land for peace” lacks basic conditions, and Russia, with no military advantage, lacks bargaining chips.

Ukraine’s million-strong ground army, combined with Europe’s air forces, could shift the battlefield dynamics and launch a counteroffensive at any time—something Russia can hardly withstand. If a ceasefire is reached, Russia would lose the hard-won stalemate achieved at great cost. Ukraine, backed by Europe, could regroup and resume fighting at any moment. The current “ceasefire” lacks even a written agreement, and the issue of forcing Ukraine to surrender its mineral resources remains unresolved by Trump. Such a coerced, verbal ceasefire is meaningless. Ukraine’s conditions for peace include Russia halting its aggression, returning occupied territories, providing full compensation, and holding war criminals accountable—demands Russia will not accept. Russia’s demands for Ukraine to cede territory, disarm, and stay out of the EU are equally unattainable.

Trump’s term is less than four years. Even if he maintains a ceasefire during his tenure, unresolved issues will likely reignite the conflict later. In reality, no ceasefire exists now. As a supposed former Soviet strategic operative, Trump has leveraged his position as U.S. president to aid Russia, but the results have been minimal. NATO functions without the U.S., and the global tariff war has had limited impact. Both the Russia-Ukraine war and the tariff war have led to intermittent fighting and pauses, with constant adjustments and errors, ultimately resulting in a stalemate. 

Meanwhile, there’s the complicating factor of an antagonistic China. Trump is trying to buy time for Russia, but the war’s outcome does not depend on him. Beyond self-promotion, he lacks the capacity to resolve it.

特朗普發動關稅貿易戰是在為普京大老闆爭取時間

 

特朗普發起針對全球關稅戰的目的就是為普京解困，如此俄羅斯已經不再成爲國際焦點，接下來就是撤銷所有打壓俄國的制裁。從24小時停戰到搶奪烏克蘭礦產資源，再到白宮與澤連斯基的爭吵，現在的俄烏戰爭發展非常微妙。戰爭是暫停下來了，但是雙方都不想停戰。

從莫斯科到基輔也就2百公里路程，在公路上3個小時的路程打了3年都沒到，現在雖然北約已經解散美國撤出，但是歐洲無論是在經濟上還是軍事上對烏克蘭的援助並未減少，而且以維和作爲藉口歐洲甚至可以直接派軍隊進入烏克蘭。戰爭使得烏克蘭成長為歐洲最強大的軍事力量，擁有100個師的地面部隊，將世界第二軍事強權俄羅斯消耗了3年，傷亡近百萬繼承前蘇聯所剩餘的軍事力量耗損大半。特朗普靠個人意志強迫停戰不爲各方所接受，所謂以土地換取和平缺乏基本條件，俄羅斯在軍事上也沒有優勢缺乏籌碼。

 

烏克蘭的百萬地面大軍配合歐洲的空中力量，隨時可以改變戰場局面進行反擊，對此俄羅斯幾乎無法抵擋。如果停戰俄羅斯花費巨大代價取得目前難得的雙方僵持局面將會喪失，烏克蘭好整以暇聯合歐洲軍隊隨時可以再戰，現在所謂的停戰連一紙協議都沒有，甚至逼迫烏克蘭出賣礦產的事情，直到現在特朗普都不能解決，這種強制性的口頭停戰毫無意義。烏克蘭的停戰要求無非是俄羅斯停止侵略，歸還國土，全面賠償，追責戰犯，這些俄羅斯不可能接受。俄羅斯要求對方放棄領土，解散軍隊，不如歐盟也不可能實現。

 

特朗普的任期還不到4年，即便在任內可以維持停戰狀態，但今後雙方問題不解決還會再次開戰，而且事實上目前雙方也沒有停戰。特朗普作爲前蘇聯戰略間諜利用美國總統身份為俄國做了很多努力，但是整體來講效果甚微，北約沒了美國照樣運作。貿易戰針對全球但效果有限，現在無論是俄烏戰爭還是關稅貿易戰，造成的局面是時打時停，不斷修正又不斷出錯，持續一段時間後也只能是陷入僵局，況且還有個搞對抗的的中國。特朗普正在盡力為俄羅斯爭取時間，但最後取決戰爭進展的畢竟不是他，況且除了吹噓自己外也並無這個能力。

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葉月くれあ

 

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