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2024年8月19日 星期一
2024年8月14日 星期三
世衛最新警告多達84個國家新冠病毒不是消失而是惡化了
儘管人們認為新冠已經是過去式,世界衛生組織(WHO)8月13日指出至少84個國家的疫情正在升溫,包括美洲、歐亞部分地區,連近期的巴黎奧運都有許多選手檢測陽性。美國的病毒監測指標已經出現警訊,但目前疏於檢測及接種疫苗,可能醞釀出更危險的病毒變種。《華盛頓郵報》報導,世衛流行病學家范科霍芙(Maria Van Kerkhove)表示,新冠疫苗覆蓋率如此之低,如果有更嚴重的變異出現,那麼高危險群非常有可能患重症。
廢水監測的新冠病毒濃度正在上升,范科霍芙表示每個監測站目前估計的流行程度比基準線高出2至20倍。據聯邦疾病防治中心(CDC),在2022年1月Omicron變種高峰期時廢水樣本的病毒濃度達到最高峰,約高於基準線23倍;到今年4、5月,全國大多數監測站的濃度僅略高於基準,但6、7月已上升至7倍,增幅相當大,不過還是低於全國最大規模疫情爆發時的速度。世衛數據指出截至7月21日,俄國的病例數居全球首位,但美國報告的死亡人數最多。截至7月27日,美國急診室中11歲及以下兒童的新冠發病率最高,略高於75歲及以上成年人。
美國醫院協會(American Hospital Association)病人安全政策副總佛斯特(Nancy
Foster)表示加州一些醫院報告稱新冠住院人數高於預期,患者住院時間比最近幾波疫情更長。當局可以監控因新冠而住院或死亡的病例,但準確追蹤病例總數是個艱難挑戰,因為許多人感染病毒後選擇不檢測、不接受醫療護理。由於缺乏總病例數據,研究人員也難以評估這波疫情變種的嚴重程度。
這波夏季新冠潮也暗示下半年的病情可能更加嚴重,因為這類呼吸道疾病如流感、呼吸道融合病毒(RSV)通常好發於秋冬,提前出現高峰令人擔憂。佛斯特稱醫院最擔心人們不接種流感、RSV或新冠疫苗,未來幾個月可能會再次看到大量患者擠滿病床。一些地區制定的反蒙面政策更無助於現況,這些禁令雖然將醫用口罩列入例外情況,但人們依然擔心戴口罩會受到騷擾。
2024年8月13日 星期二
Ukrainian raids Kursk, Putin is confused about who invaded whom now
Ukraine has suddenly invaded Russia's Kursk Region and has broken through dozens of kilometers of defenses and is now starting to build fortifications. The long-disturbed Ukrainian summer offensive has officially begun, but in an unexpected way. It would not be an exaggeration to call this attack an invasion, as the Kursk region was famous for the Soviet-German tank battles of World War II, and it is politically unfavorable for Russia to invade a country that has been invading Ukraine for more than two years, but is now being invaded by the enemy instead.
For the United States,
even if Trump came to power to force Ukraine to peace talks, if you can hold on
to Kursk, undoubtedly the future of an additional bargaining chip. From a
military point of view the so-called surprise attack emphasizes the strength of
the attack, the speed and suddenness, and does not require too many personnel,
if the gap is opened smoothly, you can then according to the specific
circumstances to strengthen the personnel and equipment is not a problem, and
the fact that the Ukrainian army is also so operated, and now there are already
more troops into the war.
The Chechen troops that were defending the area only made a token stand and then retreated, and the new recruits that were stationed there, who were not capable of fighting, surrendered. Therefore, the suddenness of this offensive achieved unexpected results, and several hundred square kilometers of land were captured in a very short period of time. There are nuclear facilities and power plants, as well as a natural gas pipeline hub to Europe, which would be very favorable to the Ukrainian army if they took control of the area. Russia did not expect the Ukrainian army to take the initiative to attack its own territory. It would take at least 1-2 weeks for troops to be sent back from the Northern Military District and the front, but now tens of thousands of troops have been mobilized from all over the country and are on their way to Kursk in a hurry. The Ukrainians are building fortifications and deploying more troops, as well as ground armor, rockets, anti-aircraft missiles, and drones, so the siege is a certainty.
The Russian
army is now reinforced by civilian vehicles from the road, not even tanks and armored
vehicles and heavy equipment, short-term expulsion of the Ukrainian army is
likely to have a certain degree of difficulty. At least a few main divisions
and armaments from the front line would be needed to cope with this sneak
attack, but this would lead to a break in the battle line. Although the
Russians have a numerical advantage in fighting a battle of attrition in the
front line, it would be difficult for the Ukrainians to gain an advantage, and
it would be detrimental to the Russians to move from a battle of positions to a
battle of movement.
Kursk is only 500 kilometers away from Moscow, it doesn't take too long to use road armor to advance, and it took Prigogine only a few days to force Moscow. Although the Ukrainian army doesn't have any sign of hitting Moscow yet, it is inevitable that they will force the Russians to divide their forces through the war of movement by opening up a new battlefield. The Ukrainian army's main target is still Crimea, and it can launch an attack at any time. Kursk can be attacked both in and out, and if the Russians split their forces, they can attack Crimea, and the air defense facilities there have basically been cleared, the Black Sea fleet has been withdrawn, and the air bases have been cleared, so as long as they cut off the land and sea traffic, they will be able to achieve their goal.
It is now up to
the Ukrainian army to take the next step. The summer offensive into Kursk is
not only a surprise, but also puts a lot of pressure on the Russian army. If
the Russians slow down, the Ukrainians will expand their attack area, and if
they try to divert their troops to help them, it will relieve the pressure on
the eastern part of the country. If they keep sending a limited number of
troops to rescue them, they will be gradually eliminated by the Ukrainians.
The political pressure on Vladimir
Putin is also very great now, as Ukraine's successful sneak attack will open up
other new wars, and the Russian army, with its own armament depletion, is
basically unable to do anything about Ukraine's equipment advantage, and is not
capable of effectively coping with it at all. And Ukraine is gradually gaining
air superiority, so for the reinforcement of Kursk is more difficult, the face
of the Ukrainian army equipped with Seamaster, F-16, drones, ground armor and
other advanced equipment, how to rescue Kursk is a big problem, Putin KGB
origin will not be unaware of the Kasimov claimed to have solved the Ukrainian
army's lies. But how to deal with the invasion of Russia is indeed a new
problem for Putin.
2024年8月12日 星期一
烏軍入侵俄國庫爾斯克打起霍家迷蹤拳普京問到底誰侵略誰
烏克蘭突然攻入俄羅斯庫爾斯克州,並且突破了幾十公里防線,現在開始修建防禦工事。一直擾攘多時的烏克蘭夏季攻勢正式開始,只是以一種出人意料的方式進行。本次攻擊稱之為侵略也不過份,庫爾斯克州在二戰中曾經以蘇德兩國的坦克大戰而聞名,對於俄羅斯來講在政治上對普京不利,入侵烏克蘭2年多的國家,現在反而被敵方入侵了。對於美國即便特朗普上臺逼迫烏克蘭和談,如果能夠堅守住庫爾斯克,無疑是將來多了一個談判籌碼。從軍事角度看此次突擊雖然有多個番號的烏軍旅出現,但人數不多1個半團1千多人,裝備有坦克裝甲車火箭炮和無人機等,所謂突襲強調攻擊力度,速度和突發性,並不需要太多的人員,如果順利打開缺口,可以再按照具體情況加強人員和裝備也沒問題,而事實上烏軍也是如此操作,現在已經有更多部隊投入戰爭。
原本防守的車臣部隊只是象徵性抵擋一下就撤退,而駐守當地的是沒有戰鬥力的新兵部隊也順勢投降了,因此本次進攻由於突然性取得了意想不到的戰果,極短時間內佔領了幾百平方公里的土地。該地有研發核武的機構和核電廠,還有通往歐洲的天然氣管道樞紐,烏軍如果控制後會非常有利。對於俄羅斯來講沒有料到烏克蘭會主動攻擊本土,從北方軍區和前方抽調部隊回援,至少需要1-2周的時間,現在從各處調集了1個師上萬人的部隊,正在緊急開赴庫爾斯克。烏克蘭正在當地修建防禦工事並且增調部隊,而且地面裝甲,火箭炮,防空導彈和無人機等一應俱全,所謂圍點打援是肯定的。而俄軍現在從公路乘坐民用車輛增援,甚至沒有坦克裝甲車和重裝備,短期內驅逐烏軍恐怕有一定難度。至少需要從前線抽調幾個主力師和軍備,才能應付本次對方的偷襲,但如此會導致戰線斷裂。俄軍雖然有人員數量優勢,在前線打陣地消耗戰,烏克蘭難以取得優勢,現在如果大幅調動兵力,從陣地戰打成運動戰則對俄軍不利。
庫爾斯克距離莫斯科也就5百公里的路程,利用公路裝甲突進也不需要太長時間,普裡戈金當時只用了幾天時間就能夠威逼莫斯科,雖然烏軍從目前看還沒有打到莫斯科的跡象,但是通過運動戰開闢新戰場逼迫俄軍分兵是必然的。烏軍的重點目標仍然是克裡米亞,而且可以隨時發動攻擊。打擊庫爾斯克可進可退,如果俄軍分兵則可以攻擊克裡米亞,而且當地的防空設施基本被清除,黑海艦隊撤離,空軍基地也被清空,只要切斷海陸交通就能夠達到目的。現在就看烏軍的下一步行動,夏季攻勢聲東擊西攻入庫爾斯克不但出其不意,而且對俄軍造成很大壓力。如果俄軍行動緩慢則烏軍會擴大攻擊範圍,如果大力分兵救援則會緩解烏東戰場壓力。如果採取添油戰術不斷派數量有限的部隊救援,則會被烏克蘭圍點打援逐步消滅。
現在對於普京的政治壓力也很大,烏克蘭偷襲得手還會開闢其他新戰爭,而且俄軍隨著己方的軍備消耗,對於烏軍的裝備優勢基本上毫無辦法,根本沒有能力有效應付。而且烏克蘭正在逐步取得空優,如此對於增援庫爾斯克難度更大,面對裝備海馬斯,F-16,無人機,地面裝甲等先進軍備的烏克蘭軍隊,如何救援庫爾斯克是個大問題,恐怕普京克克勃出身不會不清楚,克拉西莫夫稱已解決烏軍的謊言。不過如何處理俄羅斯被入侵,對於普京來講的確是個新問題。
2024年8月8日 星期四
Either Trump is assassinated and the war continues, or Zelensky is killed and the war ends
Zelensky held a welcoming ceremony for the newly arrived F-16s. The newly arrived fighters are not even painted, but labelled as Ukraine's new fighters, and it is estimated that by the end of the year, there will be 20 fighters, and the total number of the fighters has already exceeded 100, not including the other models donated by the European countries in the future. In fact, for Ukraine, how many fighters can be satisfied, not counting the various types of fighters produced in Europe, that is, the United States retired and sealed fighters there are thousands, as for the pilots, the West has already made it clear that it can be resolved through the recruitment of volunteer pilots.
Therefore,
the F-16s are just a cover, and the announcement of the official participation
in the war is to observe Russia's subsequent reaction. If, as always, it is a
verbal nuclear threat, then the increase in the number of follow-on fighters
will be accelerated. If Russia overreacts, then the opposite will happen.
Therefore, there is no doubt that Ukraine will gain air superiority in the
future, and the timing will be completely controlled by Europe and the
US.
For
Ukraine, apart from the uncertainty of Donald Trump, there is no question of
the war continuing in any other way. Funding and ammunition continue to be
replenished, more advanced and targeted weapons continue to flow in, and the
two sides are now at a stalemate, with neither side able to make any more
progress on the battlefield. At this point in the Russian-Ukrainian war, the
most important thing for all parties is the final result of the US election,
which will have a decisive impact on the course of the war. However, it is
certain that the war will continue for a long time, and even if the United
States withdraws from Europe and responds independently, it is still capable of
continuing the war. Russian now it is merely using its relative advantages in
firepower and troops to confront the Ukrainian army through battle of the
line.
The
situation for Ukraine is that with the European and American remote-attack
weapons and drones, they can conduct remote-attacks on important targets such
as military facilities, energy production, arsenals, military warehouses,
transportation hubs, command centers, etc. in the Russian hinterland, and make
use of the equipment advantage to focus on attacking the Russian air
defense system and various types of aero planes of the Air Force, so as to
continue to weaken the Russian Air Force's equipment and combat power, even
though they are restricted by Europe and the United States at present. Even
under the current restrictions imposed by Europe and the United States, good
results have been achieved.
The
previously expected summer offensives of both sides did not start, the Russian
army was affected by the setback of the Kharkov offensive, while the Ukrainians
kept their eyes on Crimea. Now that the Black Sea fleet has fled, the air
defense system near Crimea has been hit repeatedly, and there is no technical
problem to cut off the land traffic between the Kerch Bridge and Crimea, and
the F-16s are already in place. The Ukrainian army is now building up its
strength to further deplete the enemy and then launch an attack on Crimea at
the critical time. As long as recover Crimea, it means a political
victory.
The
so-called 10-plus years of Russian-Ukrainian border conflicts that led to the
final outbreak of the war originally originated from Crimea, and the real
purpose of the Russian invasion of the three eastern states of Ukraine is to
link up with Crimea on land, so that they can control the sea port facing
Europe. This is also the reason why Russia fought with Turkey for many years
over Crimea, and the so-called NATO eastward expansion is just an excuse. As
long as it controls Crimea and its eastern states, Russia can not only ensure
the safety of Crimea, but also annex Ukraine and Poland, which has been
annihilated many times in history, as the next step.
Russia's
war resources are over-consumed, in the current national military production
system is impossible to make up for it, relying on foreign allies, ammunition
and equipment, although it can solve the immediate emergency, but the main
thing is still to see the Russian army in the battlefield whether it can
achieve a decisive advantage. However, from the current situation, it seems
that Russia has only gained some sporadic tactical advantages at most. And the
most important thing is to look at Russia's subsequent war trend, from the
present point of view there is no clear direction, completely is the state of
fighting and watching. Putin can do nothing to reverse the current stalemate,
both sides believe that long-term war consumption is inevitable, as long as the
parties can maintain the situation is already an acceptable result.
The final
change in the course of the war or depend on the results of the U.S. election,
such as Trump came to power in order to help Russia get rid of passive, he will
certainly take extreme measures to end the war in the name of the Ukraine to
carry out the suppression, if Zelensky refused to comply, or even become the
focus of the target, and Russia will become the biggest beneficiary, not only
can Putin maintain permanent rule, from the recent Russian armistice offer chip
From the recent Russian offer of a truce, as long as the conditions for the
so-called co-rule of Crimea are met, the two sides will be able to start
subsequent negotiations.
Trump has a
lot of means to put pressure on Ukraine. In the long run, Russia will
definitely lose if the war between Russia and Ukraine continues, but if Trump
is elected, the ultimate losers will be Ukraine and Europe. Now that the
election is approaching, there are more than one sniper rifle aimed at
Trump. As long as he is in power again, it will definitely lead to the
fact that he will never have another full 4 years.
2024年8月7日 星期三
要麼特朗普再被暗殺俄烏戰爭持續否則澤連斯基被干掉戰爭結束
澤連斯基為新到達的F-16舉行了歡迎儀式,新到的戰鬥機連塗裝都沒有換,貼上標籤就算烏克蘭的新戰機,估計到年底可以有20架,總數目前已經超過1百架,還不包括後續歐洲各國捐贈的其他型號飛機。其實對烏克蘭來講有多少F-16都是相對的,只要有歐美的支援要多少戰機都可以滿足,歐洲生產的各型號戰鬥機不算,就是美國退役和封存的戰鬥機都有上千架,至於飛行員之前西方已經開宗明義,可以通過招募志願飛行員解決。所以,現在的幾架F-16無非就是幌子,宣佈正式參戰就是觀察俄羅斯的後續反應。如果一如既往只是口頭核武威脅,那麼後續戰鬥機的增速就會加快。如果俄羅斯反應過激則相反,所以對於烏克蘭未來取得空中優勢毫無疑問,至於時間則完全由歐美掌控。
對於烏克蘭來講除了特朗普這個不穩定因素外,其他各方面對戰爭持續下去都不構成問題。資金和彈藥不斷獲得補充,更先進的針對性武器也不斷流入,目前雙方戰局進入僵持,在戰場上都沒有能力取得更大進展。俄烏戰爭發展到現在各方最重視的還是美國大選最終結果,這將對戰爭走勢產生決定性的影響,但是戰爭持續下去長期化是肯定的,即便美國退出歐洲獨立應對,也有能力將戰爭繼續下去。俄羅斯的戰爭能源被不斷消耗,武器裝備損耗已接近臨界點,現在無非是利用火力和兵力的相對優勢,通過陣地戰與烏克蘭軍隊對峙。對於烏克蘭有利的局面是擁有歐美中遠端攻擊武器下配合無人機,可以對俄羅斯腹地的軍事設施,能源生產,兵工廠,軍用倉庫,交通樞紐,指揮中心等重要目標進行遠端打擊,並且利用裝備優勢重點攻擊俄軍防空系統和空軍各型號飛機,持續消弱俄羅斯空天軍的裝備和戰鬥力,即便在目前受到歐美限制下,仍已取得了良好戰果。
之前預計的雙方夏季攻勢都沒有展開,俄軍是受到哈爾科夫攻堅受挫的影響,烏克蘭則是將目光始終放在克裡米亞。現在黑海艦隊已經逃離,克裡米亞附近的防空系統被反復打擊,切斷克赤大橋和克裡米亞的陸路交通,在技術上完全沒有問題,F-16戰鬥機也已經到位。現在烏軍正在積蓄力量進一步消耗敵軍,然後在關鍵時間發動對克裡米亞的攻擊。只要能夠收復克裡米亞在政治上就意味著取得勝利,所謂十多年的俄烏邊境衝突導致最後爆發戰爭,最初的源點就是克裡米亞,俄國入侵烏克蘭東部3州的真正目的,就是要在陸路上與克裡米亞連成一片,如此就控制面向歐洲的出海口。這也是俄羅斯當年與土耳其反復多年爭奪克裡米亞的原因,所謂北約東擴無非就是藉口而已。只要控制了克裡米亞連接東部數州,俄羅斯不但可以確保克裡米亞的安全,而且完全可以隨時吞併烏克蘭和白俄羅斯,下一步則是歷史上被滅國多次的波蘭。
普京現在計畫受阻俄烏戰爭打成消耗戰,所謂“兵者,貴勝不貴久”,俄羅斯戰爭資源被過度消耗下,在目前本國軍工生產體系下根本不可能彌補,依靠外國盟友彈藥和裝備雖能解一時之急,但主要還是看俄軍在戰場上是否能取得決定性的優勢,但目前從戰局來看俄羅斯最多就是取得些零星的戰術優勢而已。而且最重要的是看俄羅斯後續的戰爭走勢,從目前來講沒有一個明確的路向,完全就是邊打邊看的狀態。普京對扭轉目前僵持的局面也毫無辦法,雙方都認為長期戰爭消耗下去不可避免,只要各方能維持住局面已經是可以接受的結果。最後改變戰爭走勢還是要看美國的選舉結果,如特朗普上臺為了幫助俄羅斯擺脫被動,他必定會採取極端手段以結束戰爭的名義對烏克蘭進行打壓,如果澤連斯基不肯就範,甚至會成為重點被針對的對象,而俄羅斯則會成為最大受益者,不但普京可以維持永久執政,從最近俄羅斯開出的停戰籌碼看,只要能夠滿足所謂克裡米亞共治的條件,雙方就可以展開後續談判。
特朗普對烏克蘭施加壓力的手段很多,從長遠看俄烏戰爭持續消耗下去俄羅斯必敗無疑,但特朗普如果當選則最終的失敗者必定是烏克蘭和歐洲。現在面對選舉的逐漸臨近,無論是烏克蘭,歐洲,美國的競爭對手,民主黨,全球各派反特朗普勢力等等,恐怕通過狙擊步槍瞄準特朗普的決不止一支。在美國真要下決心暗殺總統沒有不成功的道理,最後看的無非是各方勢力暗中的博弈和平衡。特朗普當選並不可怕,相反只要他再次上臺,必定導致他絕不會再有4年的時間。
Trump said recent U.S. stock market crash was caused by old & ugly woman Harris
Trump attacked Kamala Devi Harris, claiming that the recent
plunge in the U.S. stock market is caused by her, objectively speaking, Trump
can attack her content is not much, before the repeated targeting of Biden's
old age and senility Alzheimer's, simply cannot cope with the next term of
office, but now the situation is completely reversed, Trump has lost the age advantage, he is already 78 years of
age , the so-called age advantage of a few years has instead become a disadvantage.
In addition, the recent shooting is just the beginning, the future development
is expected to shoot at him will not be ordinary small-caliber rifles, but a
professional sniper gun.
Kamala Devi Harris is
a black woman, a descendant of immigrants, an ethnic minority, a middle-aged
woman, divorced, with little experience in politics and almost no track record,
but she has the votes of black, ethnic minority and immigrant families, as well
as the support of the Democratic Party's traditional forces. The U.S.
presidential election has always been based on publicity rather than political
performance, and how many people favored Trump when he ran against Hillary, and
the U.S. election was also manipulated by overseas secret power. Now that the
Democrats and Republicans are evenly matched, it's all about the votes in the
swing states, and she has raised even more money for her campaign than Trump.
Biden,
on the other hand, has withdrawn from the race in a dignified manner, which is
a plus for the Democrats in terms of voters. Attacking his opponent for having
no political record and no experience, how much Trump had before the first election. After Trump took office, he initiated a trade war to break
the balance of international trade maintained since the development of
globalization, and the so-called unilateralism, "America is strong
again" is just a stupid slogan, the U.S. has never weakened after World
War II, and the U.S. is the original promoter and developer of globalization.
The promise to move the manufacturing industry back to the United States is
unrealistic, impossible and unachievable.
Although
the economy of the United States has developed quite well during his term of
office, the consequence of initiating the trade war has led to the epidemic
war, which has dealt a heavy blow to the economy of the whole world, and
eventually led to the failure of Trump's re-election. If he is re-elected with his strong intervention, the two-year war between Russia and
Ukraine, which began in 2004 with a border conflict between the two countries,
will be brought to an end, and the NATO system that was built during the Cold
War will indirectly collapse. Pointing the finger at the so-called biggest
competitor of the U.S. would provoke a strong reaction from the other side, and
the world would again face disaster in the next epidemic. It's not easy to
defeat a competitor in a 4-year term.
At the
same time, Putin's government actually succeeded in its plot after Russia
started the war, and the competitor and Russia are the biggest allies, and the
suppression of the U.S. will inevitably lead to a full-scale retaliation, and
so the Middle East, the South China Sea, Middle Asia, the Taiwan Straits,
Ukraine, the Korean Peninsula, Central and South America, and so on, and all
the centralized governments and terrorists are
uniting to launch a full-scale unlimit war on the United States. To launch a
full-scale unlimited war, the whole world will be on fire from new epidemics to
tactical nuclear weapons, from terrorist attacks to full-scale war invasions,
from destroying the city's power system to hacking attacks on satellite
networks, from a new round of epidemic viruses to attacks on the world's
financial system, and so on, the full-scale
war of unlimited attacks on all levels will make the U.S. exhausted and
difficult to cope with.
As the
NATO military system, which had been reactivated in the Russian-Ukrainian war,
collapsed again due to Trump's intervention, a crisis of trust arose between
the U.S., Europe and other Indo-Pacific countries, and the entire Western
society was thrown into chaos by mutual suspicion. As a result, the global
military conflict will no longer be limited by localized wars, and weapons of
mass destruction, including strategic nuclear weapons, will be the first to be
used by dictatorship countries, and a global nuclear war will be inevitable
with mutual retaliation, and it is Trump's extreme policies that will trigger
the nuclear weapons switch. After the end of World War II, mankind experienced
decades of Cold War. With the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of
the Cold War, globalization led to the development of the world's economy, and
the world as a whole enjoyed several decades of peace, although regional wars
continued to break out.
However,
as a madman in the United States gained power with the secret support of
Russia, he kept destroying the peace structure formed through globalization
since the Cold War and engaged in extreme unilateralism in the name of the
so-called "America is strong again" by destroying the world trade
order. Although it is necessary to launch a trade war to suppress the world's
largest dictatorship government, the world can hardly afford to pay a
heavy price for it. Moreover, Russia, which Trump supports in waging war and
threatening world peace by destroying the security order in Europe, is not
sanctioned as a similar dictatorship, and is helping Putin to stay in power for
the rest of his life at the expense of Ukraine losing its territory. This will
not make the United States greater, but will result in the exact opposite.
Trump
will not be able to change the world order if he takes power again for only 4
years. He will utilize the power of the US state to take extreme measures,
which will inevitably lead to failure, and the hegemony of the US as the
defender of the world order built up after the World War II will be lost, and
the US will become a second-rate country in the world, which will be consumed
repeatedly in the various kinds of unlimited wars in the world. Human beings
need long-term peace, especially after the end of the Cold War, which is not
easy to come by. The relatively stable world economic development and
prosperity in the past few decades should be sustained, and the world needs
time to make adjustments, and it is the general trend to maintain stability.
Any
radical policy after Trump's reelection is bound to trigger a fatal
counterattack, and the next time he is shot at in a public speech or infected
with the virus again. Without Russia's support, Trump's campaign is not a easy
thing this time, and even if he is re-elected, it's not clear if he will
survive in his four-year term, either.