Horse year and bad luck for Maduro Captured at New Year

 

Maduro, the President of Venezuela, was captured alive by U.S. military action. According to Trump’s version of events, it was Russian military advisers who betrayed him, revealing all of Maduro’s secrets to the Americans, which ultimately led to U.S. forces seizing the Venezuelan president without a fight. In the “Year of the Horse,” those connected to “horse” are said to be unlucky—Maduro’s surname sounds like “horse” in Chinese, so he was the first to be struck at the start of the new year.

Believing the story of a Russian colonel betraying the president is too naïve. The real mastermind must be Putin, who sold out Maduro and his wife as a bargaining chip to escape the quagmire of the Russia–Ukraine war. He is Trump’s true boss. For this, the U.S. was willing to withdraw from NATO, betray its European allies, lose international credibility, and even help Putin by pressuring Ukraine to cede territory and pay reparations. Rumors of a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire are likely not baseless—there may already be a secret agreement. Venezuela, as a pawn, was abandoned to give Trump a boost in his poor record, helping him regain ground for the upcoming midterm elections.

After losing badly in the U.S.–China trade war, Trump has been moving aggressively: launching strikes in Thailand against Chinese-backed Cambodian cyber fraud parks, carrying out a decapitation operation in Venezuela—all aimed at China. China has massive investments in Venezuela, including energy interests and military aid, and Maduro himself is deeply tied to Beijing. His political faction is heavily influenced by China. The collapse of the Venezuelan government would be a major blow to China—not only economically, in energy and military terms, but also by uprooting one of the most important Belt and Road footholds in the Americas.

As a businessman-president, Trump does not want to follow previous administrations in propping up a pro-U.S. government there. Instead, under political and military cover, he intends for American energy companies and traders to control Venezuela’s economy through cooperation, and then expand influence across all sectors. For this reason, the country’s opposition leader—who just won a Nobel Prize—has not received U.S. support. The deeper meaning is that Trump must consider Russia’s interests in the region, so he has no intention of completely purging the old government for now. At the same time, he is watching China’s reaction. Maduro and his wife, along with China’s interests in Venezuela, have become Trump’s key bargaining chips.

Trump’s urgency in resolving the Russia–Ukraine war is not only to please Putin, but also because he needs to gather strength to confront China. After years of trade war, he realized he cannot defeat China economically. The initiator of the so-called Indo-Pacific strategy, Shinzo Abe, has already been assassinated, and even Trump himself nearly got shot during his campaign. India, having lost an air battle to Pakistan backed by China, is of little use. Thus, Trump urgently needs new breakthroughs to rebuild the strategic zone: Japan protecting Taiwan, increased arms sales to Taiwan, Thailand striking Cambodia, the decapitation of Venezuela’s leadership, and even Iran’s internal unrest—largely caused by years of U.S. sanctions—all are part of America’s intensified pressure campaign against China. Just three hours after China’s envoy visited Venezuela and made promises, the U.S. launched military action. Economically, America cannot match China’s global expansion, but strategically, it does not even regard China as a serious rival.

China’s international partners are dwindling, essentially facing political, diplomatic, and military encirclement. In East Asia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are moving; to the north, Russia; to the southwest, India; to the south, Southeast Asian nations—all are taking action. In the Americas, Venezuela is unstable; in the Middle East, Iran is in turmoil. The pressure on China has shifted from the economic level of the trade war to the strategic level. The anti-U.S. policy pursued by China’s top leadership for over a decade, if not adjusted in time, will inevitably lead to military confrontation. If China loses allies internationally—even Russia siding with the U.S.—then under extreme encirclement, even winning the trade war would leave China isolated by the global community. Ultimately, this would trigger internal economic collapse. Right now is the most critical test for China’s reformist faction.

馬年不利馬命人，老杜洛新年就被捕

 

委內瑞拉馬杜洛總統被美國軍事行動生擒，按照特朗普的説法出賣他的是俄羅斯軍事顧問，他向美國透露了馬杜洛的所有機密，最後導致美軍兵不血刃再次成功抓捕他囯總統。“馬年”與馬有關的人流年不利，馬杜洛的姓在中文裏和“馬”諧音，所以新年伊始就首當其衝。

如果相信所謂俄國上校出賣總統的説法太幼稚了，幕後黑手必然是普京，他出賣馬杜洛夫婦，以此作爲他在俄烏戰爭中脫困的籌碼，他才是特朗普的真正老闆，爲此美國不惜退出北約，背叛歐洲盟友喪失國際信用，並且助紂爲虐威脅烏克蘭割地賠款。現在俄烏停戰的傳聞估計不是空穴來風，很有可能背後秘密協議已經達成，委內瑞拉作爲棋子被拋棄，給特朗普的糟糕政績加分，爭取在將來的中期選舉中挽回頹勢。特朗普在中美貿易戰徹底失利後動作頻頻，發動泰國打擊中國支持的柬埔寨電詐園區，對委內瑞拉展開斬首行動，目的都是指向中國。中國在委內瑞拉有龐大投資，能源利益和軍事援助，並且和馬杜洛本人勾兌很深，他的政治利益集團也受中國控制，委內瑞拉政府倒臺後對中國的打擊很大，不單是在經濟，能源，軍事方面，而且“一帶一路”在美洲最重要的據點被拔出。

特朗普作爲商人總統不想仿效歷屆政府在當地扶持親美政府的先例，而是政治軍事背書下由美國能源公司和貿易商，通過合作的形式控制委內瑞拉經濟，並在此基礎上進行全方位滲透和合作。因此該國剛獲得諾貝爾獎的反對派領袖並未獲得美國支援，其中深意是特朗普需要顧及俄羅斯在當地的利益，所以目前並未有徹底清除舊政府進行清算的意願，而且與此同時也會觀察中國對此的反應。馬杜洛夫婦和中國在當地的利益，已經成爲特朗普的重要籌碼。

特朗普急於解決俄烏戰爭的目的不僅是爲了討好普京，更加急迫的是他需要積蓄力量對付中國，他在多年的貿易戰後發現在經濟上對抗中國力不從心。當年所謂印太戰略區的發起人安倍晉三都已經被暗殺，他在競選中也差點中槍。印度在空戰中完敗給中國支持的巴基斯坦不堪大用，因此他急需找到新突破點重塑戰略區，因此有了日本保護台灣，對台灣加強軍售，泰國打擊柬埔寨，委內瑞拉夫婦被斬首，甚至伊朗內部動亂的主因也是美國的多年制裁，對中國圍堵打壓的力度不可謂小。中國特使訪問委內瑞拉做出承諾後的3小時就採取軍事行動，美國在全球經濟擴張上難敵中國，但在國際戰略上根本沒有將中國放在眼裏。

中國的國際戰略夥伴越辣越少，其實質就是政治外交軍事層面被戰略圍堵，亞太東部的日韓台，中國北部的俄羅斯，西南面的印度，南部的東南亞國家，都開始陸續開始有所動作。遠在美洲的委內瑞拉，中東的伊朗都變動不斷。對於中國的打壓已經從貿易戰的經濟層面轉向，最高領導十幾年執行的反美政策，如果不及時轉變必定會引發軍事對抗。如果中國在國際上盟友盡失，甚至俄羅斯都投向美國，在極限圍堵下即便打贏了貿易戰，也會被國際社會切割孤立，最後造成內部經濟失控下被打垮。因此目前是對中國內部改開派，進行最後考驗的最關鍵時刻了。

Chelsea’s Year of the Horse: Maresca Resigns — In Football, Money Matters More Than Brains

 

Maresca resigned on New Year’s Day, right after the previous article was published—truly a case of speaking too soon in the Year of the Horse. Later, some inside stories emerged: interference from the club’s top management, restrictions from the medical team, and invitations from other clubs. Contacting other clubs was a contractual requirement; the idea of him coaching Manchester City was nonsense. As long as City’s head coach stays, Maresca has no chance, and even if the position opens, he would not be the first choice. The main issue is his ability—his mentor-disciple relationship is not the deciding factor.

Chelsea’s tradition of sacking managers is well known. With fierce competition, several clubs have already changed coaches this season, and some saw immediate improvement. Meanwhile, Liverpool’s Slot and Manchester United’s Amorim have also faced heavy criticism, at times close to being dismissed, only recently easing the pressure. Maresca, however, resigned voluntarily. After switching to agent Mendes, he left immediately—clearly premeditated, and he had no worries about finding a new club. Conflicts with the board, especially over player selection and recruitment, did exist, but such disputes are common in big clubs. Ultimately, results decide a coach’s fate. In November, when results were good, he boasted about winning the title; last year, after winning two trophies, he pledged loyalty to the club. But in December, results collapsed. The main reason was his own level, and giving up under pressure is not the mark of a top coach.

Chelsea’s Europa Conference League win was essentially a step down in competition, and their Club World Cup success was largely due to favorable draws. The real credit goes to the players, especially Palmer’s brilliance. Maresca’s contribution was minimal, much of it down to luck. In the Premier League, title contenders must collect points mainly against mid- and lower-table teams; against strong opponents, avoiding defeat is enough—even dropping some points is acceptable. Thus, weaker teams should be attacked aggressively, while stronger teams can be approached conservatively. In reality, Maresca’s tactics were the opposite: going all out against strong teams, half-abandoning matches against weaker ones. This led to excessive fatigue in big games—even when winning, the squad suffered too much damage. After hitting peak form, players declined, and points were lost repeatedly. Beating Barcelona and drawing Arsenal with ten men were highlights, but they were followed by a sharp downturn. In December, the team dropped many points and failed to hold leads. Maresca’s in-game management was heavily criticized, with fans also turning against him. His tactical adjustments were riddled with errors, and his rigid rotation policy was widely condemned. It makes far more sense to start with the main squad to secure an advantage before rotating, rather than chasing from behind with late substitutions.

Against Arsenal, Caicedo’s red card suspension for three matches was a huge blow. Without him, Chelsea’s defense was full of holes, their attacking transitions broke down, and the team became completely disjointed. The same happened against Manchester City: passive deep defending was understandable, but counterattacks were nonexistent. Palmer struggled to organize, pressing failed entirely. While Palmer’s poor form was a factor, the bigger issue was Caicedo’s absence. Without his sweeping presence, City controlled the midfield completely, and Chelsea couldn’t hold the ball. Add to that Cucurella and Sánchez’s lack of effort, and the eventual equalizer was pure luck, even influenced by off-field factors.

In the Year of the Horse, those connected to “horse” are affected—Maresca’s departure was also a matter of fate. His successor is expected to be an obscure coach with French league connections, but clearly just a transitional figure. Unless he achieves results—qualifying for the Champions League and winning a cup—he will also leave at season’s end. The Premier League rule is simple: to succeed, you need a proven top manager. A “top manager” means someone who has either won the Champions League, won their domestic league, or has extensive experience with innovation. That’s all. Chelsea’s owner has money but no brains, and believes that in modern football, money matters more than intelligence.

車路士馬年馬教練離職足球錢比腦子更重要

 

馬列斯卡元旦離職，就在上一篇文章發出之後，真是馬年開口就中。事後爆出一些內幕，無非是收到球會高層幹預，醫療團隊掣肘，還有其他球會的邀請之類。聯絡其他球會是合約要求，所謂執教曼城是無稽之談，只要藍月亮主教練不走，馬列斯卡毫無機會，就算走也不會用首先考慮馬列斯卡，主要是他的能力問題，師徒關係不是主要因素。

車路士亂炒教練是傳統，由於競爭激烈本賽季已經有多支球隊更換教練，而且部份球隊成績迅速反彈。另一方面利物浦斯洛特和曼聯阿莫連也是飽受爭議，曾經一度在被炒的邊緣，近期才有所緩解。馬列斯卡是自己辭職要走的，他換了經紀人門迪斯立刻走人，這一切都是有預謀，他也根本不愁下家。與球會高層的衝突特別是在用人方面是有的，在球員引入方面也有對立，這其實在大球會中也是平常事，最終決定去留的還是成績。11月成績好時他揚言奪冠，去年連獲2冠時對球會表示忠心，12月份對賽成績一落千丈，最主要原因是他的水準問題，更何況受到壓力就放棄，也非頂級教練所爲。

歐協杯屬於藍軍降維打擊，世俱杯是抽籤有利，最主要還是球員，特別是帕爾馬的天才表演，馬列斯卡的功勞很少，相當部份屬於運氣。英超想爭冠拿分主要在中下游球隊身上，對陣強隊只要力爭不輸球即可，甚至失一些分也可以接受。所以對陣弱隊要全力出擊，對陣強隊則可以保守一些。事實上馬列斯卡的部署是對陣強隊拼盡全力，對陣弱隊半放棄的狀態，如此在與強隊的對抗中消耗過度，即便贏得比賽內部也損傷過大，球員狀態進入興奮點後下滑，最後失分連連。贏了巴塞羅那，打少一人平了阿仙奴，高光表現後是球隊成績的大幅下跌，在12月賽期失去大量積分，而且領先後也不能保持。馬列斯卡的臨場執教表現也是大受抨擊，甚至與球迷也是對立狀態，戰術調整錯漏百出。硬性的輪換制度更是爲人所詬病。寧可先出主力取得優勢再輪換，也比落後再上主力追分更符合邏輯。

力拼阿仙奴卡斯度紅牌停賽三場，對車路士打擊很大，沒有他不但防守漏洞百出，進攻銜接也斷裂，整體攻防脫節漏洞百出。對陣曼城也是如此，消極防守壓縮回防無可厚非，但反擊完全打不出來，彭馬難於組織，對搶全部失敗，其中有彭馬狀態差的因素，更主要是卡斯度停賽，沒有他的掃蕩中場被曼城全部控制，藍軍根本拿不住球。況且還有古古尼亞和桑切斯的倦勤，最後追平比分完全是偶然機會，甚至球場外的因素的影響。

馬年與馬相關的人受影響，馬列斯卡走人也是大運所致，現在接手的估計是名不見經傳的法甲關係戶教練，但可以肯定最多算一個過渡人物，除非剩餘賽季取得成績，晉級歐冠和杯賽捧杯，否則還是賽季完成後走人的下場。英超的規律是想要成績好，必須請證明過自己的名帥執教，名帥的定義是要麽拿過歐冠，要麽拿過本國聯賽冠軍，要麽執教經驗豐富並且有創新，如此而已！藍軍老闆錢是有的，腦子沒有，而且覺得當今足球，錢比腦子更重要！

新谷真由 「島の奇跡」

 

鈴村あいり【接吻-せっぷん-】

 

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