熟女 - 橋本マナミ Manami Hashimoto 橋本愛実

 

熟女 - 中島史恵

 

Tsumugi Akari 明里つむぎ

 

哈爾科夫要打下去還是要看普總老人家的健康

 

Masami Ichikawa 市川まさみ

 

The most crucial factor of the Russia-Ukraine war is still Putin‘s health

 

The Russian offensive in Kharkiv has been defeated, and the Ukrainian army has even launched a local counterattack. Putin, in order to garner support from allies, had no choice but to launch the Kharkiv offensive. This is more of a political battle than a military one. Relying on the forces of five divisions to try to capture Kharkiv is unrealistic, especially considering that the city could not be taken even when Russia had the advantage at the beginning of the war. The key question is: what is the purpose of attacking Kharkiv? If the goal is to occupy the city, then it would require surrounding it, which cannot be achieved with the current limited forces. If the aim is to eliminate or severely damage the defending forces, the best approach would be to lure them out and engage outside the city rather than in urban warfare. Currently, the Russian military strategy seems to lack a clear objective.

Choosing Kharkiv is primarily due to its proximity to the Russian border, allowing for a firepower offensive from within Russian territory. However, the outcome has led to the West agreeing for Ukraine to use its weapons to launch attacks on Russian soil, which has backfired on Russia. As Russia can freely attack Ukraine, Ukraine can retaliate with superior quality. This shift will fundamentally change the situation on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield. Ukraine is transitioning from a strategic defensive phase to a strategic offensive phase, while Russia's position is becoming more passive. 

The Russian military's manpower and firepower advantages will be constrained, and if major attacks hit Russia's energy, transportation, military, and civilian facilities, it could cause panic among the population who have not yet felt the full impact of the war, making governance more difficult for Putin. Striking Russian mainland becomes an effective way for Ukraine to curb Russian attacks, essentially playing a "tit-for-tat" game. As long as Russia attacks Ukrainian military or civilian infrastructure, Ukraine will respond in kind, reducing the intensity of Russian attacks.

Overall, even if Ukraine gains a certain military advantage in the future, it will not shorten the duration of the war. Both sides have accepted the direction of a prolonged conflict. Putin hopes to prolong the war as much as possible, while the West aims to exhaust Russia over the long term. The war will only end in the short term if the Russian military suffers a complete defeat, which would threaten Putin's rule. As long as Putin remains in power, the war will continue. Russia's initial strategic goal was to occupy all of Ukraine, but now it aims to hold the territories it has seized, which requires continuous military investment. Given Russia's population, abundant resources, and ability to support a medium-scale limited war, sustaining such a war is not impossible in the short term but will inevitably lead to Russia's collapse in the long run.

The current issue is how long the Russian military can hold out under increasing Western support for Ukraine. The war has evolved from a high-tech conflict at the beginning to trench warfare reminiscent of World Wars I and II. With the gradual introduction of Western weapons and direct involvement of NATO forces, the conflict is likely to return to high-tech warfare. Russia currently lacks the basic requirements for fighting a fully high-tech war solely based on its military capabilities. The much-touted high-tech Russian weaponry has proved inadequate in the war.

Russia now relies on ground weapons left over from the Cold War era and traditional manpower tactics. These war resources are gradually depleting and will eventually run out. Russia's current military capabilities cannot be replenished through production to sustain the war. Even with support from neighboring countries, it can only delay the depletion of resources. Eventually, the war will naturally end as resources are exhausted. The West does not want a quick end to the war as it aims to consume Russia's war resources – in essence, its national strength. After three years of war, Russia's military capabilities have significantly declined, losing its position as the world's second military superpower. If given enough time, the Russian military will naturally be depleted, leading to the collapse of Putin's regime and potentially the fragmentation of Russia once again.

For Russia's biggest allies, continuously supporting until the collapse is not wise. After Russia's downfall, the "Super NATO Alliance" led by the United States will ultimately target its competitors. While the overall strength of the competitors far exceeds that of Russia, they too will face a gradual erosion across all fronts over time. Therefore, the most prudent choice for competitors is to abandon Russia at the opportune moment. After decades of effective development under wise leadership that cooperated with the West, the competitor currently lacks most is the wisdom it once possessed.

 

上杉智世 Tomoyo Uesugi

 

俄烏戰爭走勢最關鍵的因素還是普京他老人家的健康

 

俄羅斯的哈爾科夫攻勢已經挫敗，烏克蘭軍隊甚至展開了局部反擊，普京為了得到盟友的援助，不得已發動了哈爾科夫攻勢，這本身就是政治仗不是軍事仗，就憑5個師的兵力就想打下哈爾科夫，何況還是在戰爭開始時兵力占優的情況下都沒能打下來的城市，現在僅靠有限兵力就想取勝不現實。關鍵是打哈爾科夫的目的到底為何，如果佔領城市就需要將其包圍，但是目前的兵力根本不夠，甚至連基本的包圍都做不到，如果想要消滅或重創守軍，最好的辦法是避開城市巷戰，將對方引出來消滅而不是打陣地戰，而現在俄軍的戰法簡而言之就是邊打邊看，缺乏明確的戰略目的。

 

選擇哈爾科夫最大的原因是因其距離俄邊境很近，可以在本國境內發動火力攻勢。但最後的結果是導致西方同意烏克蘭利用其武器對俄本土發動攻擊，如此俄羅斯反而得不償失。既然俄羅斯可以隨意攻擊烏克蘭，相反烏克蘭也可以反擊，而且品質遠較對手為高。自此俄烏戰場的形勢將會發生根本改變，烏克蘭從戰略防守階段過渡到戰略進攻階段，而俄羅斯的處境將會變得比以往被動。俄軍的兵力和火力優勢將會受到遏制，而且俄羅斯本土的能源，交通，軍事，民用等各種設施如果遭到大面積攻擊，對現在尚未完全感受到戰爭威脅的民眾會產生打擊進而引發恐慌，從而提高普京對內執政的難度。對烏克蘭來講打擊俄羅斯本土不失為一個有效節制對方攻擊的手段，也就是所謂“你打你的，我打我的”，只要俄羅斯攻擊烏克蘭軍民用設施，烏克蘭也會同樣應對，如此反而會降低俄羅斯的攻擊力度。

 

但總體來說即便烏克蘭今後佔據一定程度的軍事優勢，也不會縮短戰爭的進程，戰爭長期化已經是雙方都認可的發展方向。普京希望戰爭能夠儘量拖延下去，歐美希望對俄羅斯進行長期消耗，烏克蘭的要求是收回包括克裡米亞在內，被俄羅斯佔領的全部領土。戰爭短期內結束的唯一可能就是俄軍徹底戰敗，如此會導致普京執政的危機，失去軍隊意味著他政治生涯的結束，因此只要普京仍掌握權力，戰爭就必然進行下去。俄羅斯開戰之初的戰略目標是佔領烏克蘭全境，現在則是守住已經佔領的烏克蘭領土，而維繫此戰略的唯一手段就是不斷投入軍力。

基於俄羅斯的有限人口，豐富的能源和充裕的糧食，支援一場中等規模有限度的戰爭，對於本國來講不是不可維繫的，但長遠來說必定導致俄羅斯的崩潰。如同對付阿富汗小國十年的消耗下，最終成為導致前蘇聯崩潰的重要因素之一。而普京的終生執政已成定局的情況下，戰爭的進程完全取決於他的健康。這就是他宣稱戰爭最少再進行5年的原因，因為屆時他將年近八旬，他考慮的是在有生之年維持戰爭，確保個人生命財產的安全。普京自己稱有4個替身，其中最象普京的則是他的替身，而從最近頻繁出鏡的本人看，則是面目腫脹行走怪異。俄烏戰爭就是普京一個人的戰爭，就是他個人實現俄羅斯偉大復興夢的最后行動。

 

現在的問題是歐美在不斷加大對烏克蘭援助力度的前提下，俄羅斯軍隊到底能夠撐多久，這場戰爭從開戰之初的高科技戰爭，發展到一二戰水準的陣地戰，現在隨著歐美武器的逐步開放，以及北約軍隊的直接介入，今後將重新回到高科技戰爭的形態。而俄羅斯僅在軍備上就不具備打一場完全高科技戰爭所需要的基本條件。而戰前被宣傳得神乎其神的俄羅斯高科技武器，在戰爭中被證明不堪重用。現在俄羅斯所依賴的是冷戰年代留下來的地面武器，還有傳統上的人海戰術，這些所謂戰爭資源隨著不斷地消耗，終有耗費殆盡的一天，因為俄羅斯現有的軍事能力，完全不能靠生產彌補戰爭帶來的消耗。即便鄰國如何支持也只能延長被消耗殆盡的時間而已，如此發展到最後戰爭自然會結束。歐美並不希望戰爭儘快結束的原因就是希望儘量地消耗俄羅斯的戰爭資源，簡而言之就是對方的國力。現在經過3年的戰爭俄羅斯的戰爭能量已經大不如前，所謂世界第二軍事強國的地位已經消失。現在俄羅斯軍隊只能算是世界軍事強權之一，但已經不是世界軍事強國。

 

只要時間拖得夠久俄羅斯軍隊會被自然消滅，只要失去軍隊不可避免的就是普京政權的解體，最終導致俄羅斯的再次分裂。蘇聯解體導致當時2200萬平方公里的國土面積直接喪失了5百萬，如果歷史再次重演恐怕俄羅斯作為國家的形態將不會再繼續存在。對於俄羅斯的最大盟友來講，一味支持直到解體並不明智，當俄羅斯垮臺後目前由美國領導的“超北約聯盟”，將會最終將矛頭直指其競爭對手。雖然所謂對手的整體實力遠較俄羅斯為高，但最終面對的將是與俄國同樣的命運，也是各層面長時間的逐步消耗。因此，選擇最佳時機拋棄俄羅斯是最明智的選擇，而就目前來講在冷戰後該國在具有智慧的幾代領導人主導下，在與西方合作的大前提下持續進行了數十年的有效發展後，現在該國最缺乏的就是過往應有有的智慧。

日本如能重生牙齒就是人類自抽水馬桶以來最偉大的發明

 

世界首個可以再生牙齒的藥物將於幾個月後開始進行人體試驗，這距離其在動物試驗中取得成功還不到一年。這為該藥物在2030年左右投入商業使用鋪平了道路。這項試驗將在京都大學醫院進行，從九月開始持續到2025年八月，將會治療30名年齡在30至64歲之間、至少缺失一顆臼齒的男性。該藥物將通過靜脈注射的方式進行測試，以評估其對人類牙齒的效果。在此前的鼬鼠和小鼠模型中，這種藥物成功促使了新牙的生長，而且沒有顯著的副作用。

「我們希望能幫助那些因為牙齒缺失或缺乏而受苦的人，」研究負責人Katsu Takahashi說道，他是北野醫院牙科和口腔外科的負責人。「雖然迄今為止還沒有能提供永久性治療的方法，但我們感覺人們對牙齒再生的期望很高。」在這11個月的第一階段試驗之後，研究人員將對2至7歲、因先天性牙齒缺失而至少缺失四顆牙齒的患者進行藥物測試，這種情況估計影響到1%的人群。研究團隊正在為這一階段的試驗招募志願者。

接下來研究人員計劃將試驗擴展到部分牙齒缺失的患者，或因環境因素導致缺失一到五顆恆牙的人群。這種情況在不同國家的發生率各不相同，但估計約有5%的美國人缺牙，老年人中的發生率更高。這種藥物通過抑制子宮敏感相關基因1(USAG-1)蛋白來實現牙齒再生。正如我們在2023年報導的那樣，阻斷USAG-1與其他蛋白的相互作用，可以促進骨形成蛋白(BMP)信號，從而觸發新骨的生成。

這種藥物在小鼠和鼬鼠的口腔中成功促使了新牙的生長，這兩種動物與人類在USAG-1蛋白的性質上非常相似。「USAG-1蛋白在包括人類、小鼠和比格犬在內的不同動物物種之間有97%的高胺基酸同源性，」研究人員指出。然而，目前還沒有關於比格犬試驗的消息。分子生物學家兼牙醫Takahashi自2005年以來一直致力於牙齒再生的研究，他希望這種治療方法不僅能用於先天性牙齒問題，還能適用於任何年齡段的牙齒缺失患者。

如果成功此療法可能在六年內對任何永久性缺牙的患者開放，這恐怕是人類自抽水馬桶以來最偉大的發明，將徹底改變人類的飲食生活。

上杉智世 Tomoyo Uesugi

 

河合明日菜 河合あすな Asuna Kawai

 

Russia can be attacked by Ukraine without restrictions and no receipt

 

Several Western countries have lifted restrictions on using weapons against Russia's mainland. Although the United States has proposed certain conditions, it has indirectly relaxed restrictions on Ukraine using weapons. Almost simultaneously, Ukrainian forces have utilized advanced Western weaponry to launch attacks on Russian mainland, leading to the collapse of Russia's so-called "Kharkiv Offensive." 

As the second largest city closest to the north of Russia, Russian forces have gathered firepower to initiate an attack on Kharkiv. Previously, due to restrictions on using weapons, Ukraine could not utilize Western weaponry to attack Russian mainland, resulting in a passive defensive situation. Moreover, with inadequate ammunition supply, the defense forces were struggling. However, the situation has completely changed now.

Ukrainian forces have transitioned from a passive state to actively using advanced Western weapons for offensive operations. With the deployment of F-16s, Russia, which already lacked superiority in the air and intelligence, will now face even more challenges. Large-scale ground offensives leveraging armor advantages will be thwarted, and troop concentrations conducting localized trench warfare will be targeted by air power. 

Particularly, with NATO countries led by France deploying ground forces for combat, even though they have not directly engaged in fighting against Russia yet, the scale of subsequent forces will continue to increase. While they may initially focus on defensive, support, training, and logistical roles, direct combat is inevitable. In fact, Poland and the Baltic States are already preparing for direct involvement, and Russia lacks the capability to prevent Western countries from joining the conflict. Just as Russia can attack Ukraine using weapons and ammunition from North Korea and Iran, the West can retaliate in kind.

While Russia may deploy mercenaries from abroad to attack Ukraine, Western countries can directly send troops into combat. In fact, Western military forces have been deeply involved in the Russia-Ukraine war under various pretexts. The start of Ukraine's summer offensive is clearly marked by the arrival of F-16s to execute combat missions. The nearly one hundred F-16s currently present are just the beginning, with additional NATO aircraft like Typhoons, Rafales, and F-15s gradually joining the fray, and supposedly retired Western pilots directly engaging in combat. 

Given Ukraine's current shortage of pilots, it is impractical to rapidly train their air force to operate advanced Western fighter jets. Thus, the ultimate development will likely involve direct NATO air force participation in combat, rendering the current training of Ukrainian pilots merely a formality. The primary goal of Ukraine's summer offensive is Crimea, the root cause of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Historical involvement in Crimea includes the UK, France, and Germany, and history appears to be repeating itself.

Once Ukraine establishes air superiority, the nature of the conflict will fundamentally change. As NATO's direct involvement deepens and with ample ammunition and reinforcements alongside advanced weaponry, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is poised to enter a new phase. Currently, the only concern for the West is the attitude of the only neighboring major power on which Russia relies. Whether this country ultimately deploys troops directly into the conflict remains uncertain. If the situation escalates to this point, a world war may become difficult to avoid. 

However, this is a matter of extreme concern for the country's leadership, as authorizing military action and potentially losing control over the troops could pose a significant threat to the regime. The direction in which armed forces are pointed is not easily controlled by those in power. Moreover, with recent crackdowns and extreme shifts in domestic and foreign policies, unpredictable changes are likely to occur once hostilities begin.

 

永岡怜子