The Russo-Ukraine war is as expected throughout the winter, and the two sides will not launch strategic military operations. Now the focus are nothing more than the final outcome of the Bakhmut offensive and defensive battle and whether the leader of neighboring country will visit Russia in the near future to express support. In Bakhmut, a small town of 70,000 people, the Russia used the Wagner mercenaries with the strongest combat effectiveness, but they have not defeated enemies for more than 7 months, with serious casualties. Even if they can win now, it shows that the Russian army's ability is low. What's more, the Ukrainian army still keeps the western line of the city. But Wagner's army is already at the end of its strength. Not only have they been complaining about the lack of ammunition recently, but even the prisoners recruited from the prison have been exhausted.
Although Wagner is constantly replenishing, the scale is only about 2-3 divisions. If one's own troops quantities do not have an absolute advantage in the battle of tight defensive urban positions, it is difficult to make progress as a whole, even if one regiment Russian is consumed every day. Zelensky decided to fight until the last minute. His purpose was simply to gain time to destroy the enemy as much as possible before the arrival of the spring offensive, and to directly destroy the coming powerful Russian army, instead of defensing other cities. In fact, the excessive consumption of the Russian army regardless of the cost has intensified the direct conflict between the Wagner Group and the Russian army. The final result was that Putin did not want to offend the military, and his support for Wagner began becoming weaken. Now, even if the Ukrainian army withdraws from the area, the strategic goal has been achieved, but the Russian army's losses are difficult to bear.
The big leader's visit to Russia is the news released by the Russian side. From the perspective of the situation, it is actually a response to Biden's visit to Ukraine. If China does not support Russia, its promise of unlimited cooperation will be voided. Once again, "one-sided" will inevitably receive sanctions from Europe and the United States. Therefore, in desperation, a 12-point peace agreement was made. Objectively speaking, the relationship between China and Russia, and Ukraine, is good. If Russia quickly annexes Ukraine, China can take Taiwan as an example. If it fails, China will only verbally support it and not participate in it. If it is a stalemate, the interests will be greater.
If Russia can hold back Europe and the United States, the suppression China has suffered from the West in recent years can be alleviated, and the pace of decoupling will also slow down. On the contrary, if Russia is defeated, Western countries will go all out to deal with China. No matter how strong the leadership is, they will face the suppression of the entire Western world. Once the contradictions intensify and rise to the military level, the result will be unpredictable. It may be possible to return to the form of the Mao era, but it is practically impossible because the times are different after all.
The biggest question now is how long Russia can last. With the overall military advantages of Europe and the United States and Russia's weak combat capabilities, failure is a matter of time. Russia does not have the military strength and capabilities of the former Soviet Union. China now has many choices: one is to provide direct assistance, the other is to let him die, but the first option is tantamount to directly participating in the war. The second option amounts to cooperation with the West. China’s resistance to U.S. aggression and aid to Russia will undoubtedly change the war situation. China can provide unlimited quantities of all the armaments that Russia urgently needs, from drones to large-caliber artillery shells, from tanks to satellite intelligence, from medical equipment to individual rations, etc., and even Sending troops to directly participate in the war, if China directly participates, the war will definitely last for a long time, and China also be dragged into it.
Therefore, another option, which is to oppose covert assistance on the surface, but do it secretly, and then use this as a bargaining chip to start negotiations with the West. In fact, such a huge war consumption will be difficult for the West to bear, so there are basic conditions for blending. In this way, if the Russian side loses, to the Chinese side, the negotiation is reached. It will be more beneficial to prolong the war. If the Russian side wins China became the biggest supporter behind the scenes. If China just secretly aiding and not using it for exchange, it can only be dragged in the war finally.
But the problem now is how long the Russian army can last. Even without considering the military assistance and equipment advantages of the West, the performance of the Russian army itself on the battlefield is extremely low. It is very difficult for this kind of army to win. The future trend of the Russia-Uzbekistan war is relatively clear, the Russian army will undoubtedly lose by time. If the big neighboring county provides comprehensive assistance will make the war to be worsen and, covert assistance will prolong the war and, limited assistance will force the war becoming complicated. Of course no assistance will let the war end early.
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