2026年2月23日 星期一
2026年2月20日 星期五
No War with Iran: Trump Turns to Stock Market Investments
Trump pressured the
Iranian government to begin negotiations within 15 days, otherwise military
action would be taken. At the same time, two U.S. aircraft carrier fleets
arrived at designated positions, exerting military pressure on Iran. This kind
of “maximum pressure” tactic has already been used countless times. To believe
he would actually launch a war against Iran is naïve—this is merely his
bargaining excuse. After a few days, he will deny everything he said and repeat
the same trick again. To truly start a war requires strategic deception, as the
art of war says: “When far, show as near; when near, show as far; when capable,
show as incapable.” Before fighting, there must be prolonged negotiations to
lull the opponent while preparing comprehensively, then strike suddenly when
the enemy is unprepared.
In today’s information age, where military actions are highly transparent, launching a war against a strong Middle Eastern opponent with nearly a million regular and irregular troops by simply announcing it verbally is laughable. Iran, as the long-time center of anti-American and anti-Israeli resistance, has fought a decade-long religious war with Iraq. With a land area of over a million square kilometers and a population exceeding 100 million, although its air force is weak, its army has some strength and is capable of
guerrilla warfare and total war. The country possesses a complete military industry, able to produce everything from bayonets to ballistic missiles. Even under recent overwhelming Israeli airstrikes targeting nuclear facilities, Iran can retaliate with issiles and drones, to the point of nearly exhausting Israel’s air defense ammunition.
Although the U.S. has long stationed troops in the Middle East, even with Israeli forces, any military action against Iran would require ground warfare. In such a case, even a U.S.-Israeli coalition would lack sufficient manpower and is not prepared for a prolonged war. Iranian uprisings are sudden events, and future developments are unpredictable. Trump’s so-called maximum pressure is nothing more than a political show, intended to attract attention and boost his political standing. He is merely a clumsy businessman, not a statesman. His main purpose in governing is to consolidate internal control and secure family interests. Large-scale military action, let alone war, is not his option, and he has consistently avoided it during his administration.
As for the capture of Venezuela’s Maduro, it was merely a political show completed under full infiltration and coordination with Russia’s Putin. In form, key military targets were bombed, and with no resistance, less than a platoon of special forces carried out the operation—one U.S. soldier wounded, about 30 Cuban casualties. After the political deal was struck, the arrest was just a procedural step. Russian military advisers were the real directors of the operation, so Maduro was nothing more than a bargaining chip.
To eliminate Iran’s theocratic government cannot be achieved by airstrikes alone. Moreover, Iran has already prepared for Trump’s repeated pressure, currently stabilizing domestic conditions and suppressing uprisings. The U.S., apart from verbal support for Iranian protesters, has provided no substantive military aid, and has even restricted Israel. Trump’s current military pressure is just another online war of words, given his long-standing lack of credibility. The movement of one or two carrier fleets proves
nothing—after all, four carrier fleets cruising in the Asia-Pacific is common. Therefore, a war against Iran is unlikely in the short term. This is simply Trump, after a few weeks of quiet, making money again in the stock market.
Iran’s oil will only come into play after the U.S. digests Venezuela’s reserves. As for Trump’s constant outrageous remarks, the whole world knows they are nothing more than tricks to attract attention like an internet celebrity.
特朗普現在不會打伊朗而且在股市建倉需要買入
特朗普施壓伊朗政府必須在15天內展開談判，否則採取軍事行動，與此同時美國2個航母艦隊也到達指定位置，對伊朗施加軍事威脅。特朗普的這種極限施壓，已經使用了不知道多少次，要是相信他會對伊朗發動戰爭就太幼稚了，這是他討價還價的慣用藉口而已。過不了幾天他就會轉口否認所説的一切，然後再一次故技重演。真要發動戰爭必須進行戰略欺騙，也就是兵法所説“遠而示之近，近而示之遠，能而示之不能”。開打前必然會與對方展開漫長和談爭取條件，麻痹對方的同時進行全方位的準備工作，然後趁敵不備突然發動軍事行動。
在資訊化社會，軍事行動高度透明的當下，面對中東強大的對手，正規和不對稱部隊將近百萬，以口頭通知發動戰爭的行徑極其可笑。伊朗作爲長期領導反美反以色列的中心國家，進行過長達十年與伊拉克的宗教戰爭，百萬平方公里土地人口過億，雖然空中力量薄弱但陸軍有一定實力，並且具備打地面遊擊戰和全民戰爭的能力，該國本身擁有完整的軍事工業，從步槍刺刀到彈道導彈都能生產。即便遇到近期以色列針對核武的壓倒性空中打擊，伊朗仍然能夠用導彈和無人機反擊，甚至搞到以色列防空彈藥幾乎用盡的地步。
美國雖然常年在中東駐軍，加上以色列的部隊，能夠展開對伊朗的軍事行動，但真要徹底清剿必定要進行地面戰，如此即便美以聯軍出動兵力仍顯不足，甚至根本就沒有做好長期化戰爭的準備。伊朗民衆起義屬於突發事件，未來發展難以預期。特朗普所謂的極限施壓完全就是一場政治秀，用以吸引外界的注意力提高自己的政治聲望。他只是一個蹩腳商人並非政治家，執政的主要目的是鞏固內部統治和賺取家族利益，對外採取大規模軍事行動，甚至發動戰爭並非他的選項，而且他執政以來一直都是盡量避免的。
對於委內瑞拉馬杜洛的抓捕是全面滲透下與俄國普京勾兌完成後，最後採取的政治秀而已，沒有實質上的軍事意義，形式上轟炸重點軍事目標後，在沒有遇到抵抗下，不到一個排的特種部隊展開行動，己方一人受傷，對方傷亡了30多個古巴人而已。政治交易完成後落實到抓人只是履行手續。俄羅斯軍事顧問則是行動指導者，所以馬杜洛無非就是交換的籌碼而已。
對伊朗神權政府的清剿只靠空襲不能徹底解決問題，況且特朗普多次施壓伊朗，對方已有準備，目前正在全面穩定國內局勢剿滅起義。美國除了口頭支援伊朗民衆外，沒有在軍事上提供任何實質性的援助。對於以色列也加以限制。特朗普現在所謂的軍事施壓，無非就是他歷來毫無信用可言下，發動的又一場網絡口水戰爭。一兩個航母艦隊的調動能夠説明什麽，在亞太4個航母艦隊的巡航也很常見。因此，對於伊朗的戰爭短期內不可能發生，這是特朗普在消停了幾個星期，又在股票市場做倉賺錢了。
伊朗的石油還是要等美國把委內瑞拉的庫存消化完了再説，至於特朗普不斷製造的各種出位言論，全世界都知道這不過是網紅吸引注意的伎倆而已。
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