千變萬化的飛俠

2026年1月20日星期二

Trump Sending Troops to Iran to Nab Another Maduro is Overthinking

After Trump successfully captured Venezuela’s Maduro, he now faces large-scale domestic unrest in Iran. Both the Iranian people and the outside world are eagerly hoping that Trump will once again take action, with the U.S. military directly intervening in Iran’s internal affairs, capturing Khamenei, and ending the theocratic government. Although Trump has repeatedly posted statements pressuring the Iranian government, up to now he has not taken any substantive military action.

Venezuela is a coastal country with limited military strength. After years of infiltration, it poses no real military threat to the United States. Russia’s Putin, in order to reverse his battlefield decline, used Maduro as a bargaining chip with the U.S.—the so-called Russian colonel who accepted one dollar to betray Maduro’s whereabouts was in fact Russia providing intelligence to the U.S. Therefore, for America, the technically difficult operation of capturing Maduro had no obstacles; it was only a matter of execution. For the U.S., it was a guaranteed victory. Venezuela’s only potential threat, its air defense system, though aided by China and Russia, has long lacked operation, training, maintenance, and even basic combat readiness. Many systems were never powered on or connected, essentially abandoned. The Venezuelan military’s combat capability is low, lacking basic will to fight, and would likely stand aside in the face of a U.S. strike.

Iran’s situation is completely different. As a central leader in long-term confrontation with Israel, Iran fought a decade-long religious war with Iraq. With a land area of over one million square kilometers and a population exceeding 100 million, its regular army and auxiliary forces approach one million. Although its air power is weak, its ground forces have real strength, capable of guerrilla warfare and nationwide mobilization. The country possesses a complete military industry, able to produce everything from bayonets to ballistic missiles. Even after Israel’s overwhelming strikes against Iran’s nuclear program, Iran can retaliate with missiles and drones, nearly exhausting Israel’s air defense ammunition. The U.S., despite long-term deployments in the Middle East and Israel’s support, would need ground operations to truly eliminate Iran. If Iran launched a nationwide resistance, U.S.-Israeli forces would be insufficient and unprepared. The Iranian uprising is a sudden event, and its future trajectory is unpredictable.

Moreover, striking Iran would require Israeli participation, which would inflame anti-Israel sentiment across the Middle East, complicating the war’s nature and potentially turning it into a religious conflict. Khamenei’s theocratic government has controlled Iran for decades, with influence penetrating all levels of society. The unrest stems from economic hardship, but the deeper cause is years of sanctions led by the U.S. and the UN. Russia’s decline due to the Ukraine war limits its ability to support Iran, echoing the Maduro precedent. Putin abandoned Maduro, and may abandon Khamenei, in exchange for Trump’s support and concessions from Ukraine. China, as Iran and Venezuela’s largest financier, plays mainly an economic role, with limited political influence and little military capacity. Beyond diplomatic protests, China is essentially powerless.

Inside Iran, protesters demand the overthrow of Khamenei’s theocracy, even calling for the return of the Pahlavi dynasty. Ironically, it was the U.S. that orchestrated the fall of the Pahlavi monarchy, and Khomeini returned from America to establish the theocratic rule. The current unrest is still in its early stages, and its future is uncertain. Khamenei, relying on the military, has the ability to suppress protests. The people also have some capacity to resist, potentially paralyzing the state and toppling the government. Already, some Iranians have begun burning portraits of religious leaders, destroying Qurans, and toppling mosques, while the government responds with gunfire. Any theocratic dictatorship that still controls the military can suppress unrest, and mass killings of civilians remain an option. As long as the regime controls the situation in the short term, it can maintain governance and restore basic order.

As long as Iran’s situation remains unclear, the U.S. will not dare to deploy ground forces. At most, it might conduct selective airstrikes, likely led by Israel. As a businessman-president, Trump cares only about interests; the lives of the Iranian people are not his primary concern. Thus, his promises remain rhetorical, and a full-scale military campaign against Iran is essentially impossible.

特朗普出兵伊朗再抓一個馬杜洛可能是你想多了

特朗普成功活捉委內瑞拉馬杜洛之後，面對伊朗大規模的國內騷亂，包括伊朗人民在內，外界都迫切希望特朗普再次出手，美軍直接出兵幹預伊朗內政，抓捕哈梅內伊，結束伊朗神權政府。特朗普雖然多次發文施壓伊朗政府，但直到目前爲止並未採取任何實質意義上的軍事行動。委內瑞拉是沿海國家軍事實力有限，並且經過多方位滲透實際上沒有能夠威脅美國的軍事能力。

俄羅斯普京爲了挽回戰場頹勢，將馬杜洛作爲籌碼與美國交換，即所謂俄軍上校收取1美元出賣馬杜洛行蹤，實際上是俄羅斯向美國提供了情報，所以美國對於抓捕馬杜洛的高難度軍事行動，在技術上沒有任何障礙，只是看具體行動的執行是否順利罷了。也就是對於美國來講是必勝的行動。委內瑞拉唯一能對美國造成威脅的防空系統，雖然得到中俄援助但長期以來缺乏，操作，演練，維修，保養，甚至連基本的作戰訓練也沒有，很多設備甚至沒有開機和鏈接，基本上處於廢棄的狀態。而且該國軍隊戰鬥能力低下，缺乏基本的作戰意志，對於美國的突襲作壁上觀。

伊朗的情況完全不同，伊朗作爲領導中心長期對抗以色列，並且進行過長達十年與伊拉克的宗教戰爭，百萬平方公里土地人口過億，正規軍隊和輔助兵力接近百萬，雖然空中力量薄弱但陸軍有一定實力，並且具備打地面遊擊戰和全民戰爭的能力，該國本身擁有完整的軍事工業，從步槍刺刀到彈道導彈都能生產。即便遇到近期以色列針對伊朗核武的壓倒性打擊，伊朗仍然能夠用導彈和無人機反擊，甚至搞到以色列防空彈藥幾乎用盡的地步。美國雖然常年在中東駐軍，加上以色列的部隊，能夠展開對伊朗的軍事行動，但真要徹底清剿必定要進行地面戰，如此即便美以聯軍出動，如對方在本土打全民戰爭則顯然美以兵力顯然不足，甚至根本就沒有做好準備，伊朗民衆起義屬於突發事件，未來發展難以預期。

況且打擊伊朗必然要以色列出兵，但如此會激發中東反以勢力，最後將戰爭性質複雜化，甚至有可能導向宗教戰爭。哈梅內伊宗教神權政府控制伊朗多年，勢力滲透到國家的各個層面，發生騷亂的原因雖是民不聊生，主因還是受到了美國爲首聯合國的多年制裁。俄烏戰爭導致俄羅斯國力衰退，難以繼續對伊朗的支持，背後也有仿效馬杜洛的因素。普京先放棄馬杜洛再拋棄哈梅內伊，換取特朗普對俄國的支持，迫使烏克蘭讓步。中國作爲委內瑞拉和伊朗的最大金主，主要作用還是在經濟上，在政治上影響力有限，在軍事上也是俄羅斯主導，因此除了在國際上抗議幾句外，基本上是無能爲力的局面。

伊朗國內的民衆示威，打倒哈梅內伊神權政府，甚至提出巴列維王朝回歸，當年巴列維王朝倒臺的始作俑者也是美國，霍梅尼也是從美國回到伊朗展開神權統治。目前伊朗的內亂仍然處於開始階段，未來發展很難預料，哈梅內伊依靠軍隊有能力平息騷亂，民衆也有一定能力對抗，癱瘓國家瓦解推翻政府，所以今後局勢的發展至關重要。現在部份伊朗民衆已經開始焚燒宗教領袖畫像，燒毀古蘭經推倒清真寺，政府也開槍作爲回應。任何神權獨裁政府只要還能掌控軍隊，就有能力平息民衆騷亂，武力屠殺平民完全在選項以內，只要在短時期內控制形勢，就能維持政府運作恢復基本秩序。

伊朗問題只要局勢沒有徹底明朗，美國絕不敢斷然出動地面部隊，最多就是有選擇性的空襲而已，而且也是由以色列主導。作爲商人的總統特朗普關心的只是利益，伊朗人民的生死並非考慮的主要選項。所以直到目前他所作的承諾都是口頭上的，全面出兵打擊伊朗基本上是不可能的。