2024年7月30日 星期二
2024年7月23日 星期二
Biden is too old and Trump is too noisy but being loud can help dodge bullets
Biden was pressured to drop out and is
now being replaced by Kamala Devi Harris, or was it just a few days ago that Biden still
insisted he would not drop out, but even now the change in attitude is not
surprising. The main reason for this is twofold. Firstly, Biden's poor
performance in the live broadcast of the debate with Trump was incoherent, and
it should be noted that the debate was entirely controlled and organised by the
Democratic Party, and the result was not that there was a superiority or
inferiority between the two in terms of the content of the debate, but it was
entirely due to Biden's answers that made the outside world think that he was
not suitable for re-election due to his health problems, and ultimately
triggered the pressure of the Democrats to force him to withdraw.
It is important to understand that a
poor performance in one debate is not worth mentioning, and several other more
appropriate debates can be arranged. But if Biden is physically unable to
perform his duties, then a replacement is inevitable, but given that a change
of general is too urgent with only a few months to go, it would not be in the
interest of the Democratic Party to force him to drop out of the race just
because of a single poor debate performance. Now that Biden's withdrawal is a
fact, the internal pressure for him to withdraw has always existed from an
objective point of view, but it is only now that it has finally exploded,
otherwise the Democrats would never have taken the risk at such a sensitive
moment.
Another important factor is that
Trump's assassination incident, although it was a surprise, but the shock
caused by the big, the shooter's bullet as long as a little more biased will
hit his head, so even if it is not fatal, but also absolutely no possibility of
re-election. The problem is that even now the Democrats and Republicans are
still evenly matched in the election, and in the end it all comes down to the
swing states. Biden is too old and Trump is too loud. If Biden were younger, he
would have no problem getting re-elected, and if Trump were more careful with
his words, he would have a good chance of getting re-elected. Age isn't the
key, it's health. Reagan was very old but became the greatest president of all
time. It's also not a problem if you don't speak out of turn. Who doesn't say
something out of turn before a presidential campaign?
The point is that Trump's shooting is
so timely that it may provoke Americans to upset the current balance of power
in the race. Kamala's record is far from being comparable to that of the experienced
Biden, but she has been able to absorb the votes of some women, minorities and
immigrants. Americans' electoral will and order is to elect a black man to
replace the white president, then a woman to replace the black president, and a
minority to replace the woman, and eventually a transgender person to replace
the minority, and then return to the normal electoral order. As for the
so-called political performance and platform, Americans do not care. The US
electoral system is already full of loopholes and extremely backward, and since
the US political system has relative advantages as a guarantee, even if a fool
is elected, the basic operation of the country can still be maintained. Donald
Trump himself is an excellent example. Before he was elected, a significant
portion of the American people did not perceive him as much better than a fool.
The US presidential election has never
been solely an American affair, and it is a country that has been subject to
very serious interference from outside forces, especially in recent decades
with the spread of globalisation. Trump was elected with the support of Russia,
and Biden with the help of his rivals. Now Russia has been suppressed but the
competitors still have strength, so Trump until now have made it clear that he
wants to immediately end the Russian-Ukrainian war and turn to suppress the competitors,
is that he knows that Russia can still play a role in his re-election campaign,
if the competitors to get a head start, Biden was elected, then he will
certainly have no hope of re-election, and competitors and Russia and the
alliance, through the end of the war as a bargaining chip By ending the war as
a bargaining chip, Biden will be able to make Russia sell out its allies and
help him in his re-election campaign, which is the best bargaining chip he can
offer.
This will help Putin not to disclose
the evidence that he was helped by Russia to win the election. This is why
Putin has repeatedly told the Western media that the biggest enemy of Europe
and the US is “the competitor”, not Russia, because he has long been confident that Trump's
re-election campaign would change the course of the war, and has therefore gone
out of his way to offend his competitors by publicly stating his position to
the West. The Democrats can't stop Trump's growing campaign, and since the
bullets aren't hitting the target, there's not much else they can do unless the
same thing happens again, and if they still don't hit the target, Trump will
surely be back in the White House.
Of course, in the current situation,
even if Trump escaped the assassination, but also does not show that he has
gained a clear advantage, the respective support for the Democrats and
Republicans of the state has not changed much, and ultimately still have to
look at the swing state's electoral votes. After the shooting incident, the
Democratic Party can be said to be quite decisive in replacing Biden, on He
Jinli, although too hasty, but also a desperate move, if not Biden's sudden
incoherence in the debate, as long as to cope with the past Trump want to be
elected again this is not easy. Now that the election situation has
become more complicated, it cannot be said that Trump will definitely be
elected, and the subsequent development still needs to be observed through
further observation.
2024年7月22日 星期一
拜登太老川普太吵最后證明聲音大的對躲子彈有幫助
拜登迫於壓力退選，現在由賀錦麗替代，還是在前幾天拜登仍堅稱不會退選，不過即便是現在態度改變也不令人奇怪。最主要的原因是兩點，首先是在與特朗普辯論的直播中表現不佳語無倫次，要知道這次辯論完全是受民主黨操控主辦的，結果並非兩人在辯論的內容方面有高下之分，完全是因為拜登的回答牛頭不對馬嘴，使得外界覺得他因健康問題根本不適合繼續連任，並且最終引發民主黨內部迫使其退選的壓力，要知道一次辯論表現不佳不值一提，可以另外再安排幾次更妥帖的辯論會。但如果是因身體原因無法履行職務則必然有換人的必要了，但鑒於臨陣換將只有幾個月的時間來講過於緊迫，即便因一次小小的辯論表現不佳就被迫退選對民主黨不利。現在拜登退選已成事實，從客觀上講內部要求他退出的壓力一直存在，只不過是現在最終爆發而已，否則民主黨斷不會在如此敏感時刻冒險。
另一個最重要的因素是特朗普擦耳而過的被暗殺事件，雖然是有驚無險但造成的震動頗大，槍手的子彈只要再偏一點就會打中他的頭部，如此即便不能致命也絕無再競選的可能。問題是即便到現在民主共和兩黨的選舉形勢仍然是勢均力敵，最後關鍵還是要看搖擺州。從表面看兩人的缺點都很明顯，拜登太老，川普太吵。拜登要是年輕些連任不成問題，特朗普要是言語謹慎些再次當選機會也很大。年紀大並非關鍵最主要還是看健康程度，雷根當年年紀也很大但最終成為最偉大的總統。口不擇言也不是問題，哪位美國總統競選前不說幾句過頭話。關鍵是特朗普的槍擊案太及時了，很可能激發美國人打破現時的競選情勢平衡。
賀錦麗的政績伐善足陳遠不能與經驗老道的拜登相比，但是能夠吸收部份女性，少數族裔和移民的選票，美國人的選舉意願和秩序是先選個黑人取代白人總統，然後女人取代黑人總統，少數族裔取代女人，最後可能發展到變性人取代少數族裔，然後再回歸到正常的選舉秩序中來。至於所謂政績和政綱之類美國人並不關心，美國選舉制度本來就漏洞百出極端落後，再由於有美國政治體制有相對優勢做保障，即便選出個傻瓜來也能維持國家的基本運作。特朗普自身就是一個極佳的例子，在沒有當選前美國人相當部份人對他的認知，也不見得比傻瓜好多少。美國總統選舉從來就不單純是美國人的事情，而且是受到外部勢力干涉非常嚴重的國家，特別是近幾十年來隨著全球化的普及和推廣。特朗普當年的當選靠的就是俄羅斯背後的支持，而拜登則是通過競爭對手的幫助。
現在俄羅斯已經被打壓但競爭對手仍有實力，因此特朗普直到現在都開宗明義要立刻結束俄烏戰爭轉而打壓競爭對手的原因，就是他知道俄羅斯仍然可以為他競選連任發揮作用，如果讓競爭對手取得先機，拜登當選則他必定連任無望，而且競爭對手和俄羅斯又是盟友關係，通過結束戰爭作為籌碼使俄羅斯出賣盟友，從而幫助他競選連任是他可以出的最佳籌碼。如此可以解普京之圍，保證其不將他當年受俄羅斯幫助競選成功的證據公佈出來。這也就是普京為何對西方媒體多次稱歐美的最大敵人是競爭對手而非俄羅斯的原因，因為他早就對特朗普的競選連任後會改變戰爭形勢有信心，因此不惜得罪競爭對手對西方公開表態。民主黨目前對特朗普增長的競選勢頭無法阻止，既然子彈都打不中也就沒有太多其他方法了，除非再出現一次相同事件，但如果還是不能一擊而中，則特朗普必定再入白宮。
當然，就目前的形勢看即便特朗普躲過了暗殺，也並未顯示他已經取得了明顯優勢，各自支持民主黨共和黨的州份變化不大，最終還是要看搖擺州的選舉人票。在槍擊事件發生後民主黨可以說相當果斷地換掉了拜登，上賀錦麗雖說太過倉促但也是無奈之舉，如果不是拜登在辯論會上的突然語無倫次，只要應付得過去特朗普想再此當選也非易事。現在的選舉形勢變得更加複雜，不能完全說特朗普就一定能夠當選，後續發展仍需要通過進一步觀察。
2024年7月19日 星期五
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