Trump’s withdrawal of troops from the Middle East means that Iran has effectively won the U.S.-Iran war and become the de facto king of the Middle East. Although large numbers of its leaders were decapitated, its navy and air force destroyed, and its nuclear facilities severely damaged, the regime itself remained unaffected. Without committing ground troops for a direct cleanup operation, and facing a country of a million square kilometers and a population of over 100 million, limited military strikes and large-scale airstrikes alone were never going to shake the rule of the current Iranian government.
Through unrestricted warfare, Iran has partially gained control over the Strait of Hormuz and begun comprehensively striking U.S. military bases in the Middle East, while also threatening the energy facilities of various Middle Eastern countries. The Iranian government used external pressure to quickly extinguish internal unrest and, through the war, gained control over energy prices, thereby influencing the development of the global economy. These strategic advantages and benefits did not exist before the war. Currently, U.S. forces are conducting escort operations by controlling the Oman area and have secured partial control of the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran is attacking oil tankers outside the U.S.-controlled zones, striking energy pipelines in eastern Saudi Arabia, and launching missile and drone attacks against neighboring countries.
Trump wanted to replicate the Maduro-style decapitation operation from Venezuela in Iran to boost his midterm election campaign. Ultimately, constrained by Israel, he found himself in a dilemma of being unable to advance or retreat. It can be said that the U.S.-initiated war against Iran has failed.After months of military attrition, U.S. forces no longer have combat capability; their munitions are exhausted and troops need rest and reorganization. Even the carrier strike groups will be unable to fight again for at least six months—or longer—until maintenance and reconstitution are completed. The forces currently deployed in Oman are only carrying out limited escort missions. What Trump cares about now is the domestic election situation. As for inflation caused by rising oil prices, once the war stops, oil prices will naturally fall. Conversely, if the Middle East war continues, oil prices will keep rising, which would be even more unfavorable for his midterm elections. The war he launched against Iran was entirely a speculative action driven by personal will.
The entire war, from beginning to end, was conducted in a rushed manner, with a clear misjudgment of Iran’s military strength. In the end, he had no choice but to unilaterally withdraw and end it. Until the midterm election outlook becomes clear, he is even less likely to launch further military action.Trump has even offered postwar compensation to Iran in exchange for a compromise. Although implementing it specifically would be very difficult, a situation in which military strikes fail to achieve victory and one even ends up paying the opponent’s war costs to seek peace is rare in American history. A war launched by a mediocre businessman is nothing more than a complete farce. Although the United States has imposed the harshest economic sanctions on Iran, the greater the pressure, the stronger the rebound. Iran will further intensify its military strikes in the Middle East. Unable to safeguard the security of its regional allies, and with Israel left in isolation, America’s dominant position in the Middle East has been shaken.
By stopping assistance to Ukraine against Russia, the United States effectively withdrew from NATO and cut itself off from Europe, thereby losing its dominant position in Europe—and now the same pattern is being repeated in the Middle East.The trade war launched by Trump has in fact already been defeated by China; now he can only seek small gains from Canada. As long as the midterm elections are lost, Trump will accomplish nothing in the remainder of his term. Although America’s MAGA supporters remain infinitely loyal to him, for the majority of Americans, Trump’s rise to power has brought more problems than solutions. He can identify problems but cannot solve them, and in the end only causes the problems to worsen.
The United States has not become strong again; instead, it has been marginalized internationally and has lost its leadership position across all levels. Before Trump took office, the United States was still strong, but under his efforts, America’s decline has been accelerated and realized ahead of schedule.
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