三上悠亜 Yua Mikami

 

古代通過考武舉到底能否混出來江湖地位怎麼樣

 

自有科舉以來，武舉向為雞肋。文科為朝廷輸送人才，構成了大小官僚的金字塔，可是軍隊裡的軍官們，卻大多為戰陣裡混出來的老行伍，偶爾有個把武舉出身的人進來，也往往立腳不住，不是自己識趣滾蛋，就是在戰鬥中因沒人幫襯白白丟了性命。儘管武科沒用，但卻沒有一個朝代廢了它，不知道是出於制度的慣性呢，還是出於陰陽（文武）平衡的考慮，反正一代代無聲無息地考下去。考出來的武秀才、武舉人、武進士，官府和社會，誰也不拿他們當回事。雖然沒有官做，但考武舉的卻大有人在。原因是不管社會上看重與否，考上了總算是有了功名，有了功名就有相應的官方優惠，就算是最低一級的武秀才，也可以見官不跪，減免些賦役什麼的。

武舉見了真正的縉紳固然矮半頭，但在平頭百姓面前，依舊可以耍耍威風。明清兩代，是科舉成型的時期，制度運行相當穩定，不免一科一科地武舉考出來，武秀才尤其見多。既沒有出路，武舉們只好在社會上做閒人，地方官從來不把他們當回事，可他們自己卻從來放不下紳士的架子。清代有一個流傳甚廣的故事，說是有天一個武秀才扯了一個挑糞的農夫上堂告狀，說是這個農夫在街上撞了他，必須加以懲罰。縣太爺說，既然如此，那就讓秀才打這挑糞的一百個嘴巴吧（有一說是磕頭）。於是武秀才一五一十地打了起來，打到七十的時候，縣令突然說：停，我忘了問你這個秀才是文秀才還是武秀才？答曰武秀才。縣令說，文秀才才能打一百，武秀才只能打五十，現在你打多了，讓這農夫還回來。於是，農夫劈裡啪啦回了武秀才二十個嘴巴，打得武秀才七葷八素。

這個故事無論真假，都說明瞭當時人們對武舉的輕視和武舉自己的自輕自賤。不過這沒辦法，明清兩代科舉出了那麼多名臣和名人，無論誰說歷史都免不了要說到他們，可是誰聽說有哪個歷史上有名的人物是武舉出身呢？儘管武秀才、武舉人、武進士也一科一科地考出來。到了清朝快滅亡的時候，武舉們突然有了一回露臉的機會。那是鬧義和團的時候，北方鄉野，幾乎村村立壇，莊莊練拳，打教堂，殺洋人和二毛子（信天主教的教民）。鄉間的縉紳卷進去不少，其中大多數是武舉，武舉人和武秀才。他們不是親自做義和團的師傅和大師兄，就是給壇口當後台。當然，這可以理解，原本他們就是閒人，這個時候，正是用得著閒人的時候。可惜的是，閒人們好不容易有了用武之地，還是沒有用到正地方，練拳舞刀，沒有把自己練成刀槍不入，自然也就擋不住洋人的洋槍洋炮，老佛爺和小皇帝還是得棄城而逃，武舉們露臉的事很快變成了丟臉，不久就讓人忘記了。

科舉制度本身設置武舉一科，原本未嘗不是想通過考試選拔軍事人才，可是，凡武舉考試實行的時候，中國曆朝大部分時間裡政治的風氣都是重文輕武的，現任的軍事官員都沒人拿著當回事更何況考上來的。清末慈禧朝最後有榮祿上書廢除了武舉制度，取而代之是在各地設立武備學堂，參考西洋軍隊體制編練新軍，培養了大批軍事人才。

 

三上悠亜

 

Trump was shot because Putin had his secrets

 

The Russia-Ukraine war has become more politically complicated with Trump's return to power. Now it is almost the consensus of the West and Russia that the war will be protracted. The reason why Putin uses the human sea tactic to conduct positional warfare at all costs is to delay time and wait. The internal divisions in Europe and the United States after Trump came to power, and the reason why other NATO member states have continuously stepped up their participation in the Ukraine war, is that they intend to have the ability to fight Russia independently as soon as possible without the support of the United States, and have made various preparations for this. 

Objectively speaking, it is almost impossible for Trump to use his power to force all parties to cease fighting after taking office. If the United States stops military assistance to Ukraine, it will indirectly withdraw from NATO. In this way, the United States will be marginalized by Europe and even the world. Not supporting Ukraine is helping Russia, in this way, Trump will become Putin's accomplice, and the United States will lose its world leadership position in disguise.

 

What is ironic is that the so-called rivals that Trump is targeting are actually Russia's biggest supporters. Therefore, the opponents that Trump is prepared to suppress with all his strength in the future, as Putin's allies, are actually on the same front as Trump. Even if Trump is re-elected, his term will only last four years. Europe is fully capable of independent support. Four years later, the United States will still have to return to the current track of joint resistance against Russia. The purpose of Europe's support for Ukraine is to permanently solve the peace problem on the European continent, completely remove the threat from Russia and completely disintegrate it. 

Now Europe's unprecedented unity is fully confident in bringing Russia down. Even according to Trump's request that year, the defense budgets of most European countries had exceeded 2% or more, and it was clearly stated that in the future, in order to deal with Russia, they would soon increase to more than 6% during the Cold War. Trump's so-called support for Russia's invasion without satisfying the percentage has become completely untenable now. As a poor amateur politician, he still does not understand that once NATO is activated as a war machine, it cannot be stopped artificially.  

 

Trump’s so-called reason for a unilateral ceasefire is lacking in basis. Now it is Russia that has invaded Ukraine and launched the largest and longest war of aggression since World War II. Moreover, as one of the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, it is the most important defender of world peace. To invade other countries, any ceasefire must be based on Russia's complete withdrawal from other countries' territories and unconditional compensation for all losses caused by the war, and the criminals who started the war must be held accountable. If Trump wants to support Putin through a truce, he too will eventually be reckoned with at the end of his term. 

What is the ultimate reason why Trump unconditionally supports Russia, the United States’ biggest enemy since the Cold War? There is absolutely no need for him to risk the world’s disapproval and suddenly change the U.S. position to force Ukraine to accept the loss of territory in exchange for the current Western comprehensive confrontation with Russia. The war has only been maintained until now with the support of NATO led by the United States. Once Russia invades Ukraine, the final outcome will not end in failure. If it continues to develop, it will continue to launch external expansion after recovering its strength, at least Russia, the threat to European peace cannot be eliminated and is in danger of worsening at any time. 

 

There is only one reason for Trump to do this in the future, is that Putin has all the evidence that secretly supported Trump's election. Once it is made public, he will surely fall and become a criminal in history. The so-called "Russia Gate" back then was not groundless. Putin At that time, it not only provided financial support but also secretly used state power to help Trump defeat his political opponents and was finally elected. The U.S. electoral system is extremely backward and full of loopholes. The reason why Trump, who was not favored at the time, dared to run for election was because he had secretly obtained some form of commitment from Russia before the election.

Putin hoped that through Trump's election, Russia would be able to break the international isolation that had characterized Russia since 2014 after the invasion of eastern Ukraine triggered a conflict on the Russian-Ukrainian border. The reason why Putin insists on continuing the war at all costs is to wait for Trump to be elected and then use the influence of the United States to force NATO to cease operations. 

 

For Putin personally, even if Russia withdraws its troops unconditionally, Putin can keep his power as a bargaining chip. Otherwise, if the war continues for a long time and Russia's war resources are exhausted, it will be the day when Russia is defeated and Russia is disintegrated and Putin is guillotined. This is the ultimate outcome of the so-called “Russian dream” promised by Putin. 

However, from the moment Putin made up his mind to launch a war of aggression, his inevitable failure was already determined. Even if there are fundamental changes in the development of wars in the future, Putin, as the historical sinner who launched the war, will definitely be liquidated. And if Trump becomes an accomplice, he will face the last shot fired from nowhere. 

永岡玲子

 

普京苦等亲密愛人再上臺的原因是手里有特朗普寫的情書

 

俄烏戰爭隨著特朗普的權力回歸在政治上日卻複雜化，現在戰爭長期化幾乎成了西方和俄羅斯的共識，普京不惜代價利用人海戰術進行陣地戰的原因就是希望拖延時間，等待特朗普上臺後歐美內部的分裂，而北約其他成員國不斷加強參與烏克蘭戰爭力度的原因，就是打算在沒有美國支持下早日具備獨立對抗俄羅斯的能力，並且對此已經做出了各種準備。從客觀上講特朗普上臺後利用權力迫使各方停戰的可能性幾乎沒有，如果美國停止對烏的軍事援助就是間接退出北約，如此美國將會被歐洲甚至國際邊緣化，不支持烏克蘭就是幫助俄羅斯，如此特朗普就成了普京的幫兇，美國將變相失去世界的領導地位。

 

值得諷刺的是特朗普針對的所謂競爭對手，卻是俄羅斯最大的支持者，如此特朗普未來準備全力打壓的對手，作為普京的盟友實際上和特朗普成了同一陣線。特朗普即便他連任也不過4年任期，歐洲完全有能力獨立支撐，4年後美國還是要回到現在聯合抗俄的軌道上來。歐洲支援烏克蘭的目的是希望籍此永久解決歐洲大陸的和平問題，徹底將俄羅斯的威脅解除將其完全分解，現在的歐洲空前團結完全有信心將俄羅斯拖垮。即便按照當年特朗普的要求歐洲多數國家的國防預算都已經超過了2%甚至更多，而且開宗明義今後為了應對俄羅斯，很快就將提高到冷戰時期的6%以上。特朗普當年所謂不滿足百分比就支持俄羅斯入侵的言論，發展到現在已經完全不能成立，作為一個蹩腳的業餘政治家始終不明白，北約作為戰爭機器一旦被啟動進入工作狀態就不可能被人為停止。

 

特朗普所謂單方面停戰的理由缺乏理據，現在是俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭，發動了二戰後規模最大持續時間最長的侵略戰爭，而且是作為聯合國的常任理事國之一，世界和平最重要的維護者居然侵犯他國，一切停戰必須在俄羅斯全部撤出他國領土，並且無條件賠償戰爭造成的一切損失的前提下，並且對發動戰爭的罪犯進行追責。如果特朗普想通過停戰來支持普京，那麼在任期結束後他也將最終受到清算。特朗普無條件支持美國自冷戰年代就是最大敵人俄國的終極原因為何，他完全沒有必要冒天下之大不韙，在目前西方全面對抗俄羅斯的前提下，突然改變美國立場迫使烏克蘭接受喪失領土的條件換取和平，況且戰爭就是在美國主導的北約支持下才維持到現在，一旦俄羅斯在入侵烏克蘭的戰爭中，最終結局並非以失敗而收場，發展下去必然是在恢復元氣後繼續發動對外擴張，至少是俄國對歐洲和平的威脅不能解除，而且隨時都有惡化的危險。

 

特朗普未來如此操作的原因只有一個，就是普京掌握了當年暗中支持特朗普當選的全部證據，一旦公諸于眾他必定倒臺成為歷史罪人，當年的所謂“通俄門”並非空穴來風，普京當年不僅提供資金支援而且暗中用國家力量，幫助特朗普打擊政治對手最後爆冷當選。美國的選舉制度本就異常落後漏洞百出，當年不被看好的特朗普所以敢於參選，就是暗中早就在競選前得到了俄國某種形式的承諾。普京當年希望通過特朗普當選，從而打破因入侵烏克蘭東部地區，引發俄烏邊境沖突后，俄羅斯自2014年開始在國際上被孤立的局面。現在普京不惜代價堅持打下去的原因就是要等特朗普當選，然後利利用美國的影響力迫使北約停止運作。

對於普京個人來講即便俄羅斯無條件撤軍，作為交換籌碼普京也能保住自己權力，否則戰爭長期持續下去俄羅斯戰爭資源消耗殆盡之時，就是俄羅斯戰敗俄國解體普京上斷頭臺之日。這就是普京承諾的所謂“俄國夢”的最終結局。然而，自普京下決心發動侵略戰爭之時，就已經決定了他必然失敗的命運。將來戰爭發展即便有反復進程發生根本性變化，但普京作為發動戰爭的歷史罪人一定會被清算，而特朗普如果成為幫兇，他面對的也將是最後一發，不知從何處射出的子彈。

日乃ふわり

 

三上悠亜

 

Russian weapons turned to junk on the battlefield, so what about Chinese

 

Russian weapons have performed poorly on the battlefield, and now they have even resorted to using ammunition supplied by North Korea. It’s worth noting that North Korea’s military industry was established with assistance from the former Soviet Union. However, the quality and performance of North Korean-produced military products are generally subpar and not internationally renowned. Even today, most of North Korea’s so-called air and naval equipment consists of outdated weaponry provided by the Soviet Union in the last century. Surprisingly, during last winter when the United States faced ammunition shortages, the Russian military managed to gain some battlefield advantages by utilizing millions of rounds of large-caliber artillery shells, rockets, and other ammunition supplied by North Korea.

The decline in Russia’s performance on the battlefield has had a significant impact on its arms exports. Once ranked as the world’s second military power, Russia has now fallen to a point where its weapons exports are virtually ignored. The main reason for this decline lies in Russia’s exaggerated claims about the invincibility of its weapons, which have been proven ineffective in actual combat. While China has relied on Russian technology for many years, the performance of Russian weapons has been exposed during battles. This raises doubts about whether Chinese-manufactured weapons are also subpar, perhaps even worse than battle-tested Russian ones. As one of the top five countries in global arms exports, China has seen an increase in both the quantity and quality of its weapon exports to developing countries, particularly in Africa, Southeast Asia, and South Asia. Most of these exports take the form of military aid, often subsidized by the Chinese government. Although it may seem like a paper transaction, it still provides orders for Chinese arms manufacturers.

In recent years, China’s industrial capabilities and technological standards have improved, leading to increased international demand for some of its more advanced weapons. Unmanned drones, anti-ship missiles, long-range rocket artillery, and self-propelled guns have garnered significant orders. Geopolitical factors have also influenced arms sales to certain Middle Eastern countries, despite limited quantities of expensive strategic weapons. China itself faces restrictions on advanced military technology exports due to Western arms embargoes. As a result, China collaborates with Russia, Ukraine, Israel, and other countries to acquire limited advanced technologies, sometimes through unconventional means.

While South Korea and Turkey have emerged as rising arms exporters due to their advanced capabilities, China’s share of the international arms market remains relatively small. Furthermore, China’s pro-Russian stance has further complicated its arms exports. Despite its position as a major industrial nation, China cannot be compared to the former Soviet Union or Russia in terms of industrial capacity. It would struggle to independently sustain a medium-scale, limited-duration conflict without relying on external partners. Russia faces a critical challenge due to Western technological advantages and Ukraine’s highly skilled tactical use of weapons. The ongoing conflict has resulted in significantly higher battlefield losses than anticipated, even with full-scale mobilization. Once the inherited Soviet equipment is depleted, Russia will face military defeat.

China’s advantage lies in traditional weapon production, where it excels in both quality and quantity. China is one of the few countries capable of producing a wide range of military equipment, including missiles, satellites, and more. However, its advanced weapons fall short when compared to Western standards. Evaluating China’s weapons depends on the nature of the conflict. For limited regional wars dominated by mechanized and electronic warfare, China’s weapons can hold their own, leveraging their numerical and variety advantages. However, in high-intensity, high-tech, and multi-domain conflicts, China’s weapons are inadequate. While China’s overall military technology is considered moderate on the international stage, it still lags significantly behind Western countries.

The ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War has seen Ukraine integrate AI into traditional and electronic warfare, resulting in a unique combination of familiar and entirely novel combat tactics. This comprehensive approach, guided by AI, precisely calculates every aspect of warfare, from weaponry to personnel utilization. China’s weapons, which were never considered cutting-edge, have seen inflated export numbers over the years. While they can meet daily military needs, their advanced capabilities fall short. As AI continues to advance, Western military technology will make further breakthroughs, leaving China’s advanced weapons even more marginalized. The technological gap will widen. Therefore, while Russia’s depleted equipment signals the end of the conflict, China, if it avoids launching external wars, can still manage its defense needs with its existing arsenal.

 

 

俄羅斯武器在戰場上被打成了垃圾強國裝備又如何

 

俄羅斯武器在戰場上表現欠佳，現在居然淪落到要使用朝鮮提供的武器彈藥的地步，要知道朝鮮的軍工業就是前蘇聯幫助建立的，而且朝鮮生產的軍工產品無論是品質和性能都在國際上不值一提，直到現在朝鮮所謂海空軍裝備的大多數還是前蘇聯上世紀提供的早就淘汰的軍備，但是風水輪流轉沒有朝鮮提供的數百萬發大口徑炮彈火箭彈及其他彈藥，在去年冬季趁著美國彈藥斷供，俄軍甚至取得了部份戰場優勢。要知道朝鮮提供的大都是庫存多年，品質低下，管理不善的廢舊彈藥，相當部份早就應該銷毀，但現在卻在俄烏戰場發揮作用。

 

俄羅斯由於在戰場上的表現不佳，從戰前世界第二軍事強國的位置上跌落，影響最大的還是武器出口，從世界第二迅速下滑已經到了無人問津的地步。最主要的原因是俄國武器宣傳性能天下無敵，實戰效果一敗塗地。強國武器技術多年來仰仗俄羅斯，自90年代開始合作多年，俄羅斯武器在戰場上被打得原形畢露，強國製造的武器是否也是軍工垃圾，甚至表現還不如經歷實戰的俄羅斯成疑。作為世界武器出口排名前5的國家，強國製造的武器在俄烏戰爭前出口的數量和品質都在逐年增加，但多數針對的還是發展強國家市場，非洲，東南亞，南亞等所謂傳統友好國家，其中大多數還是以軍援的方式出口，實際上是通過強國政府的補貼，但最後通常是以減免的方式免費贈送，雖然無非就是左手交右手，但是至少可以創造一些紙上出口，並且給本國武器製造商提供訂單。

 

近年隨著強國工業能力和科技水準的提高，開發的一些較為先進的武器受到國際市場歡迎，特別是無人機，反艦導彈，長程火箭炮，自行火炮等取得不少訂單。出於地緣政治的影響也有一些中東國家，向強國訂購價格較為昂貴的戰略武器裝備但數量有限。強國本身也是受到西方武器禁運的國家，而且禁止對強國出口先進軍事技術，所以強國製造的武器難以與西方先進裝備抗衡，只能依賴與俄羅斯，烏克蘭，以色列等國的有限技術合作，並且通過特殊手段向英美法取得部份先進技術。隨著俄烏戰爭的發展韓國和土耳其都成了新銳的武器出口大國，但強國武器在國際市場上本來獲得的份額就不大，加之相對親俄的立場，現在和將來武器出口就更不樂觀了。不過強國本來就不是武器出口大國，在國際上表面雖有一定份額，但實際除去政治因素不值一提。

 

對於俄羅斯來講強國在傳統武器生產方面能力很強，各種輕武器無論從品質到數量都能滿足市場要求，而且在各類彈藥生產方面產能大效率高。而且強國是世界上少數能夠生產所有海陸空導彈衛星等各種軍事裝備的國家，甚至能夠負擔一場中等規模有限戰爭所需的一切裝備和彈藥。類似俄羅斯軍工企業現在面對的軍工生產，遠不能彌補戰場消耗的情況在強國不會發生。強國是現今世界少數工業大國之一，相對俄羅斯與前蘇聯相比，甚至不能稱之為工業國家，非工業國家很難建立起齊全的軍工產業，因此基本不能獨立應付中長期的地域軍事衝突。俄羅斯遇到的最大問題是西方先進武器擁有隔代技術優勢，烏克蘭軍隊的戰術使用能力高超，因此造成了現在的戰場消耗遠超戰前俄羅斯的預計，即便進行全面戰爭動員俄羅斯貧弱的軍工能力也無法滿足戰爭損耗，如此從前蘇聯繼承的裝備一旦被耗盡，俄羅斯也自然就會面臨軍事失敗。

 

強國在傳統武器的生產上佔據優勢，在先進武器的製造和生產上雖然常年處於劣勢，但強國開發的所謂先進武器種類齊全性能尚可，但整體水準與歐美相比相差甚遠。因此評價強國武器要看戰爭的性質，如果是傳統有限度的地域戰爭，機械電子化武器主導，高科技因素參與度不強，強國武器還是能夠應付，並且有數量和種類的優勢。如果是高強度，高科技，高烈度的區域戰爭，海天太空高科技武器決戰，則強國武器基本不合格。相對來講強國軍工整體能力強於俄羅斯，但在很多方面如先進戰機，航空發動機，超高音速導彈，核潛艇，武裝直升機等等，甚至遠不能與俄羅斯現有水準相比。強國的軍事科技水準在國際上最多屬於中等，與歐美國家相比差距甚大。即便是俄羅斯繼承了前蘇聯大部份的軍事遺產，但現在面對西方的先進武器差距基本是用電子機械武器去抗衡AI綜合主導的各類武器。

 

現在的俄烏戰爭烏克蘭利用無人機將AI融入到傳統和電子作戰之中，呈現的是一種似曾相識又完全不同的作戰模式，既有一二戰的陣地戰人海戰術，又有AI引導下的先進武器攻擊。這種綜合性的戰爭從武器到人員的利用，經過AI的運算已經精確到了每個點上。強國製造的武器在國際上本就不算先進，多年的武器出口數字也是水份大於實際，談不上在國際上佔據多少份額。雖然經過多年發展軍工產業齊備，開發生產製造都有一定能力，本國生產的大量裝備雖不稱得上最先進，但是能夠應付日常軍事所需。但是隨著AI的發展西方的軍事技術將迎來再次突破，因此強國製造的武器在國際市場上除傳統武器外，其他先進軍備方面只會更加備受冷落。而且先進裝備的科技水準將會被西方拉大。所以相對於俄羅斯裝備被消耗完意味著戰爭的結束，強國如果不仿效俄國發動對外戰爭，只是應付國防需要軍備方面還是能夠應付的。

柚木Rio 铃木ふみ奈 橘丽美

 

楓カレン