Several Western
countries have lifted restrictions on using weapons against Russia's mainland.
Although the United States has proposed certain conditions, it has indirectly
relaxed restrictions on Ukraine using weapons. Almost simultaneously, Ukrainian
forces have utilized advanced Western weaponry to launch attacks on Russian
mainland, leading to the collapse of Russia's so-called "Kharkiv
Offensive."
As the second largest city closest to the north of Russia,
Russian forces have gathered firepower to initiate an attack on Kharkiv.
Previously, due to restrictions on using weapons, Ukraine could not utilize
Western weaponry to attack Russian mainland, resulting in a passive defensive
situation. Moreover, with inadequate ammunition supply, the defense forces were
struggling. However, the situation has completely changed now.
Ukrainian forces
have transitioned from a passive state to actively using advanced Western
weapons for offensive operations. With the deployment of F-16s, Russia, which
already lacked superiority in the air and intelligence, will now face even more
challenges. Large-scale ground offensives leveraging armor advantages will be
thwarted, and troop concentrations conducting localized trench warfare will be
targeted by air power.
Particularly, with NATO countries led by France
deploying ground forces for combat, even though they have not directly engaged
in fighting against Russia yet, the scale of subsequent forces will continue to
increase. While they may initially focus on defensive, support, training, and
logistical roles, direct combat is inevitable. In fact, Poland and the Baltic
States are already preparing for direct involvement, and Russia lacks the
capability to prevent Western countries from joining the conflict. Just as
Russia can attack Ukraine using weapons and ammunition from North Korea and Iran,
the West can retaliate in kind.
While Russia may
deploy mercenaries from abroad to attack Ukraine, Western countries can
directly send troops into combat. In fact, Western military forces have been
deeply involved in the Russia-Ukraine war under various pretexts. The start of
Ukraine's summer offensive is clearly marked by the arrival of F-16s to execute
combat missions. The nearly one hundred F-16s currently present are just the
beginning, with additional NATO aircraft like Typhoons, Rafales, and F-15s
gradually joining the fray, and supposedly retired Western pilots directly
engaging in combat.
Given Ukraine's current shortage of pilots, it is
impractical to rapidly train their air force to operate advanced Western
fighter jets. Thus, the ultimate development will likely involve direct NATO
air force participation in combat, rendering the current training of Ukrainian
pilots merely a formality. The primary goal of Ukraine's summer offensive is
Crimea, the root cause of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Historical involvement
in Crimea includes the UK, France, and Germany, and history appears to be
repeating itself.
Once Ukraine
establishes air superiority, the nature of the conflict will fundamentally
change. As NATO's direct involvement deepens and with ample ammunition and
reinforcements alongside advanced weaponry, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is
poised to enter a new phase. Currently, the only concern for the West is the
attitude of the only neighboring major power on which Russia relies. Whether
this country ultimately deploys troops directly into the conflict remains
uncertain. If the situation escalates to this point, a world war may become
difficult to avoid.
However, this is a matter of extreme concern for the
country's leadership, as authorizing military action and potentially losing
control over the troops could pose a significant threat to the regime. The direction
in which armed forces are pointed is not easily controlled by those in power.
Moreover, with recent crackdowns and extreme shifts in domestic and foreign
policies, unpredictable changes are likely to occur once hostilities begin.
愛德格·斯諾( Edgar Snow，1905-1972)，生於美國堪薩斯城，1928年以記者身份到中國上海，1934年1月起在燕京大學新聞系任講師，1936年6月曾秘密赴陝北革命根據地採訪，回京後，寫了《紅星照耀著中國》即《西行漫記》。建國後，斯諾曾先後三次訪問中國，為發展中美人民的友誼做出貢獻。1972年2月15日逝世於瑞士日內瓦郊區的寓所中。遵照斯諾的遺願其部分骨灰安葬在中國。1973年10月19日在北京大學舉行了安養儀式。
Trump faces over 30 charges in
various lawsuits, and it is highly likely that he will be convicted in the end.
The so-called multiple charges actually boil down to one charge of hush money.
Trump is facing over 90 lawsuits, and if they all go through the judicial
process, it will be a lengthy ordeal. The notion of the verdict having
political motivations is evident, and whether it is political persecution goes
without saying. Whether or not a Republican candidate goes to jail has little
actual impact on his re-election prospects, but it naturally limits his ability
to campaign and rally support.
Up to now, he leads significantly in polls
compared to his opponents, but whether he can be re-elected depends on the
actual votes. Furthermore, the electoral system in the U.S. is very outdated,
with too many external factors involved. Even the ballots cast cannot truly
represent the will of the people. Looking at the current situation, he and
Biden are neck and neck in terms of campaign support. The issue for the Republican
Party lies in the difficulty of finding a replacement for Trump, while the
issue for the Democratic Party is that Biden is simply too old.
During Trump's tenure, the trade war he initiated escalated into a
confrontation with America's competitors, ultimately leading to the
disintegration of globalization. While he fired the first shot against the
"competitors" and quickly surrounded them in the Indo-Pacific region,
this idea was originally proposed by Abe but actually implemented by Trump.
Leveraging the enormous influence of the United States, he swiftly exerted
pressure on competitors, but his defeat strategy did not further play out. His
primary task during his tenure shifted from implementing the America First
policy to stimulating the economy, gradually evolving into a comprehensive
confrontation with competitors, which eventually led to the outbreak of the
pandemic and his eventual downfall.
Therefore, if he were to return to office,
he would inevitably need to refocus his strategy on the competitors, aiming to
quickly end the war in Ukraine and persuade Russia to join the containment camp
against strong countries. With Russia pressuring from the north, the final
piece of the puzzle in the Indo-Pacific region would be completed, leaving
competitors surrounded on three sides by the south, north, and west, with the
Pacific Ocean to the east. His final slogan of ending the rule of the opponent's
ruling party was a strategy proposed for the first time since the Cold War,
leading to a coalition of forces, including Wall Street, major corporate
factions, left-wing media, financial technology giants, and the woke camp,
uniting to push him out of office.
During Trump's term, the trade war he
initiated evolved into a confrontation with America's competitors, eventually
leading to the breakdown of globalization. While he launched the first attack
against the "competitors" and quickly surrounded them in the
Indo-Pacific region, this idea was originally proposed by Abe but was actually
realized by Trump. Leveraging the immense influence of the United States, he
swiftly exerted pressure on the competitors, but his strategy of defeat did not
have a further impact. His primary task during his term shifted from
implementing the America First policy to gradually developing into a
comprehensive confrontation with the competitors, ultimately resulting in the
outbreak of the pandemic and his eventual removal from office.
Therefore, if he
were to return to power, he would inevitably need to shift the strategic focus
back to the competitors, making it crucial to swiftly end the conflict in
Ukraine and persuade Russia to join the containment camp against powerful
nations. With Russia applying pressure from the north, the final piece of the
puzzle in the Indo-Pacific region would be completed, leaving the competitors
surrounded on three sides by the south, north, and west, with the Pacific Ocean
to the east. His final slogan of ending the ruling party of the opponents was a
strategy proposed for the first time since the Cold War, leading to a coalition
of forces, including Wall Street, major corporate factions, left-wing media,
financial technology giants, and the woke camp, joining together to oust him
from power.
The United States has now contacted
more than 60 countries outside of NATO to counterbalance Russia, establishing
the so-called "Super NATO" system. This mechanism will naturally be
applied to competitors after the end of the Russia-Ukraine war. Even from an
economic perspective, abolishing globalization does not align with America's
long-term interests. In fact, globalization was proposed and implemented by the
United States. America does not face the issue of regaining greatness because
it has never truly declined. Even if America experiences a revival, it is not
about bringing manufacturing back to the U.S., especially in this era dominated
by AI and high technology. The problem with competitors is that personal will
overrides national interests, which is very similar to Trump's own issue. In
the decades following the Cold War, peaceful development was the mainstream.
However, the Russia-Ukraine war has evolved into a comprehensive confrontation
between two major camps. In such a situation, it is crucial for the U.S., as a
global leader, to be led by an experienced, objective, and rational leader who
can distinguish priorities and urgencies and avoid extreme measures. If Trump
returns to power, his threat to the world is no less than Putin's. Judging from
his recent conviction, if he continues to act recklessly, the outcome will
likely be similar to Abe's.
Putin's visit to allied countries has secured promises of continued assistance, leading to a halt in the offensive in Kharkiv. With the funds secured, there is no need to send troops into the enemy's firing line, as they have already prepared their ammunition. The military aid from the USA is not mobilized domestically; in fact, it has been prepared in NATO armories in Europe, with most equipment directly sourced from various European countries. As long as the funding is in place, the USA can provide the support.
Currently, both sides in the Russia-Ukraine war are at a stalemate. Although President Putin has hinted at negotiations recently, it is widely known that neither side is willing to give up their occupied territories, rendering any talks futile.
Ukraine hopes to obtain permission to use Western weapons to attack Russia's mainland, with the main aim of targeting more vital strategic objectives. Ukraine has been successful in using drones to attack Russia's oil facilities and military targets, causing significant damage to their energy infrastructure and air defenses. Historically, most of Ukraine's requests have been met by the West after some maneuvering. With France already representing NATO forces, the use of Western weapons to attack Russia is a logical progression, blurring the lines between domestic and overseas operations. The anticipated involvement of the F-16 fighter jets is eagerly awaited, as having these advanced aircraft in play will negate Russia's precarious air superiority and ground forces advantage, shifting the dynamics of the conflict.
Although the number of F-16 fighter jets is currently limited, more are expected to be deployed over time. In addition to the F-16s gifted by Denmark and the Netherlands, Belgium is also set to provide 30 fighter jets to Ukraine. Future NATO European member countries are planning to supply their active F-16s to Ukraine, as these aircraft are slated for retirement to make way for more advanced F-35s. Despite being older models, these refurbished aircraft will easily counter the Russian Air Force. Furthermore, Sweden is set to provide Ukraine with their JAS-39 Gripen, with follow-up aircraft such as the Typhoon and Rafale joining the effort. This shift will move the Russia-Ukraine conflict from ground-based to aerial combat, potentially reshaping the balance of power in favor of Ukraine.
Objectively, Ukraine has become a testing ground and furnace for Western weapons, with almost all obsolete NATO weapons finding their way into the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Both sides are utilizing Cold War-era stockpiles, with Ukraine fielding a diverse array of equipment. Although Ukraine has a strong history in weapon development dating back to the Soviet era, their innovative use of drone tactics in this conflict has proven effective against the robust Russian military. Currently, Ukrainian forces are considered the most combat-ready and well-equipped in Europe. In contrast, Russia has suffered significant losses in military capabilities during the war, with their combat effectiveness being questioned internationally. Many of Russia's flagship weapons systems, heavily promoted for export, have proven ineffective or even unsafe in actual combat scenarios.
Currently, the Russian military is resorting to attrition warfare through ground-based tactics, leveraging their numerical and equipment advantage against Ukraine. However, this strategy will need to adapt once Ukraine gains air superiority. The possibility of Russia resorting to tactical nuclear weapons cannot be dismissed, potentially leading to Western tactical nuclear weapons entering Ukraine. Simultaneously, the West may launch decapitation strikes against Putin, effectively ending the war. With NATO's eastward expansion aided by Putin's efforts, the past concern of strategic missile defense systems threatening Russia's security is no longer relevant. If tactical nuclear weapons are employed, it would spell disaster for Russia. Even in a scenario of a nuclear war, not all of Europe and the USA would be obliterated, with the target being Russia alone, lacking Russia's so-called strategic missile defense system.
Another destabilizing factor is the potential intervention of Trump if he comes to power, as strong involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict would likely lead to a fate similar to the Czech Prime Minister, who faced five bullets prematurely ending his political career. There is also a risk of direct military intervention from Russia's allies such as North Korea, Iran, or others. While Iran's military might is insufficient to counter Israel, North Korea is the most likely candidate to deploy troops, with the West unconcerned. North Korea's military capabilities, while posing a threat to South Korea on the peninsula, would be better utilized in the Ukraine conflict for attrition. The key lies in observing the involvement of a certain country with a history of military intervention, although any deployment would not be advantageous. While participation in the conflict cannot be measured in terms of rationality, sending troops would mean direct opposition to the West, akin to how the West targeted Suleimani in response to Iran's actions.
