千變萬化的飛俠

2022年2月10日星期四

2022年2月8日星期二

花千億美元請看開幕式總得吃完烤鴨再走

普京閃電訪問參加冬奧會開幕式，隨即於當晚離開總共幾個小時而已，甚至連特意準備的晚宴都沒參加，代價是從前者手中拿到千億美元的能源商貿訂單。俄羅斯官方的解釋是因為疫情，實際情況自然是烏克蘭問題緊張所致，雖然表面普京故作輕鬆，俄烏克衝突掌握絕對主動權，但實際上他壓力甚大極度緊張。

開始有傳他可能不參加開幕式，但最後時刻對方答應經貿要求下才出現。烏克蘭軍事實力有限全國連民兵才25萬兵力，而且武器裝備戰鬥力都有限，如果俄羅斯打算採取軍事手段徹底解決問題，應該迅雷不及掩耳之勢拿下基輔，造成即成事實歐美必定鞭長莫及。當然，如此等於新冷戰正式開打，烏克蘭將成為美俄對抗的最前線，最後結果必定是重蹈前蘇聯的覆轍，以俄羅斯的綜合實力遠較前蘇聯為差，全方位整體長期對抗談何容易。

如果打下烏克蘭東部，北約可以單獨宣佈西烏克蘭直接加入北約，如此等於烏克蘭成為東西德，變相接受了北約在西烏克蘭駐軍，加速了烏克蘭加入北約的進程，歐美軍事勢力在俄羅斯邊境部署直接對抗了。所以，普京的底牌還是不戰而屈人之兵，利用軍事壓力逼迫歐美簽下城下之盟。至於拿到合作夥伴的千億訂單之類，主要還是能源方面的合約，而且是未來十年的供應量，這些單子本來就要簽的，無非是現在提前透支而已。如果北約俄國全面實行軍事對抗，千億美元的分期合同這點錢根本不夠。

況且合作夥伴自身在貿易戰後受到經濟凋敝，資金短缺，製造業衰退，失業嚴重，外資撤離，疫情打擊，國際關係惡化，海外投資惡化等綜合因素影響，經濟實力受到打壓下力不從心。如果開宗明義支持俄羅斯吞併烏克蘭，如此等於在俄國裹挾下與歐美直接對抗。最後結果如何參照歷史經驗就會有答案。美國已經警告如果競爭對手支持俄國，經濟制裁必定會包含前者，這就是普京臨時差點不飛過來的原因，因為合作夥伴並沒有完全滿足他的條件。所以他烤鴨都不吃露個臉匆忙回國了，否則參加晚宴的時間還是有的。

至於說疫情俄羅斯本來就是惡化最嚴重的國家，在疫情開始之初莫斯科市長就表示幾乎失控，現在情勢更加惡化難於收拾，這也是普總在烏克蘭冒險的原因之一，主要目的是轉移國內的視線挑動民族情緒，為自己的對內執政減輕壓力，事實上這是他多年來屢試不爽的手段。另外，美國從中亞倉促撤軍將軍力全部投入亞太，對付競爭對手下北約在歐洲的實力有所削弱。加之受到疫情影響提供給普京難得的機會。

歐美軍事戰略重心二戰後在歐洲，稍後是中東現在重返亞太，中亞撤軍出現真空下臺海軍事壓力加劇，對於普京的發難中短期內難以顧及。現在普京會不斷施加軍事壓力，爭取短期內逼迫北約就範。直到目前為止歐美也沒有在烏克蘭全面部署成建制的部隊，對比上次俄烏衝突，當時有英國主導的各國部隊直接部署當地。北約如果直接出兵普京立刻會陷入被動，雖然對方部署的軍事力量肯定非常有限，但是即便送給俄羅斯消滅，哪怕就是打死少量士兵也會意味著全面開戰。

現在歐美正在爭取時間做出反應，最後就是直接的軍事勢力介入，當然如此需要進行一定的風險評估，但一旦做出決定普京必定會變被動。無論是全面開戰還是局部戰爭，長遠看都不利普京永久執政。即便是打下烏克蘭也會面臨歐美支持下的長期反抗，針對俄羅斯境內的恐怖襲擊是少不了的，況且還有阿富汗的前車之鑒。所以，現在對於普京來說最佳選擇是見好就收。

2022年2月7日星期一

Too little money and 10 divisions are not enough for Putin to take Ukraine

Russia has 100,000 troops in Ukraine and Belarus, and has adopted military means to attack Ukraine in two directions at the same time. Objectively speaking, if Russia wants to annex Ukraine, there is no problem militarily. Ukraine itself has limited military strength, and it is impossible for NATO to mobilize troops to confront Russia on a large scale in the short to medium term, and this is when the epidemic situation in various countries is very serious.

Putin is now asking NATO to sign an agreement to give up Ukraine to join NATO, or resort to military means or allow eastern Ukraine to return to Russia independently. Although Europe and the United States have threatened not to accept it, and will impose severe sanctions on Russia like North Korea, excluding it from the US dollar financial system, this will limit the energy exports to Europe that Russia relies on. The latter is trying to increase energy exports to China to make up for it. In fact, the price of Russia's energy exports to Europe is much lower than that China, which is entirely a political act and not entirely considering economic factors. Energy export to Europe is Putin's only trump card against Europe and the United States. If it is restricted, it means losing the ability to confront.

Russia's military power is less than one-tenth of that of the former Soviet Union. At present, only nuclear weapons and nuclear submarines can threaten NATO. If Ukraine is fully occupied by military means, 100,000 troops are simply not enough in number, and they may face the challenge of protracted war. At that time, the super-strong force fought against Afghanistan for ten years and finally withdrew its troops. According to foreign media reports, Russia has accumulated more than 100 billion US dollars to cope with the Russian-Ukrainian crisis during the recent energy rise, but this amount is not enough in the long run. Moreover, even if Ukraine is fully occupied, it will not be able to cover this country current bad economy, and Russia has no long-term consumption of economic strength at all.

The more practical operation is to win eastern Ukraine, but this is equivalent to recognizing the independence of western Ukraine. Europe and the United States can declare that western Ukraine will directly join NATO. In this way, not only can troops be directly stationed there, but strategic missile defense systems can also be deployed in a grand manner. At most, it is to repeat the pattern of the Cold War in the past, to directly confront Russia in Ukraine, and to prolong the consumption of politics, economy, military and diplomacy. In this way, according to Russia's current overall withered economy, it is even more difficult to bear the burden under the severe epidemic.

Although Putin now theoretically does not have a political obstacle to get permanent power, but if Russia starts a war abroad, it will be unfavorable to his long-term governance, so he can control the domestic situation now, mainly relying on the profit of energy exports to maintain the economy. The support of the financial oligarchs, and the strict control of internal opposition power and the media. In addition, Europe and the United States are now shifting their power to the Asia-Pacific region to target their competitors. After the hastily withdrawn troops from Afghanistan, a power vacuum has emerged in Central Asia.

If Europe and the United States impose severe financial sanctions on it, it will inevitably affect the interests of the financial oligarchs. The economy will be hit under the restriction of energy exports, and the ruble will definitely be severely impacted and collapsed. It is unrealistic to try to make up for the losses by increasing energy exports to China. After all, China cannot absorb all the losses of the other party, and this is equivalent to directly confronting the West with Russia, and it is equivalent to being coerced into a Cold War directly with Europe and the United States, and it is under the leadership of Russia. Even a hot war will potentially break out. Although rivals' relations with Europe and the United States have deteriorated in recent years, they are far from a overall conflict. Moreover, the local epidemic situation in Russia is bad. With Europe and the United States facing the threat of the collapse of medical systems and resources and Russia also confront the same situation. It must turn its attention to the outside world.

In fact, the Russian media reported very limited coverage of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which means that there was no full-scale war mobilization. And Putin has previously emphasized that he has never said that there will be military action against Ukraine. The last Russian-Ukrainian conflict finished, after the Russian economy was suppressed and the ruble was hit, Putin suddenly withdrew his troops. This is also the case this time. If no military measures are taken around March, it will be difficult for the situation to develop further. After all, Europe and the United States have also begun to make various preparations for this. It seems that although NATO cannot accept all the conditions put forward by Russia, it can promise to slow down the pace of Ukraine's accession to NATO, and the two sides can secretly compromise, at least make a commitment to maintain the status quo.

Putin has been suppressed internationally in recent years, and he has continued to seek diplomatic breakthroughs without success. Therefore, it is possible to seek more voice in diplomacy through this incident. Russia's overall economic strength is now incomparable to that of South Korea. The total amount is only equal to one province of a neighboring country. How can it have the strength to engage in a full-scale Cold War-style long-term confrontation? If this is the case, the internal economy will collapse soon, and the foundation of Putin's long-term rule will be lost. Russia's current toughness is actually consistent, the purpose is to force a higher bargaining chip.

10 divisions on the Ukrainian border are simply not enough to fully capture the Ukrainian border, not to mention that the armored forces are still difficult to resist NATO's air power. The last time the riots in eastern Ukraine were entirely caused by mercenaries sent by Russia. If they really wanted to return to Russia, they had long been independent last time.