千變萬化的飛俠

2026年9月17日星期四

2026年9月16日星期三

US Forces in Retreat, Oil Prices Soar, Iran Laughs: Trump Really Won ?

Trump’s withdrawal of troops from the Middle East means that Iran has effectively won the U.S.-Iran war and become the de facto king of the Middle East. Although large numbers of its leaders were decapitated, its navy and air force destroyed, and its nuclear facilities severely damaged, the regime itself remained unaffected. Without committing ground troops for a direct cleanup operation, and facing a country of a million square kilometers and a population of over 100 million, limited military strikes and large-scale airstrikes alone were never going to shake the rule of the current Iranian government.

Through unrestricted warfare, Iran has partially gained control over the Strait of Hormuz and begun comprehensively striking U.S. military bases in the Middle East, while also threatening the energy facilities of various Middle Eastern countries. The Iranian government used external pressure to quickly extinguish internal unrest and, through the war, gained control over energy prices, thereby influencing the development of the global economy. These strategic advantages and benefits did not exist before the war. Currently, U.S. forces are conducting escort operations by controlling the Oman area and have secured partial control of the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran is attacking oil tankers outside the U.S.-controlled zones, striking energy pipelines in eastern Saudi Arabia, and launching missile and drone attacks against neighboring countries.

Trump wanted to replicate the Maduro-style decapitation operation from Venezuela in Iran to boost his midterm election campaign. Ultimately, constrained by Israel, he found himself in a dilemma of being unable to advance or retreat. It can be said that the U.S.-initiated war against Iran has failed.After months of military attrition, U.S. forces no longer have combat capability; their munitions are exhausted and troops need rest and reorganization. Even the carrier strike groups will be unable to fight again for at least six months—or longer—until maintenance and reconstitution are completed. The forces currently deployed in Oman are only carrying out limited escort missions. What Trump cares about now is the domestic election situation. As for inflation caused by rising oil prices, once the war stops, oil prices will naturally fall. Conversely, if the Middle East war continues, oil prices will keep rising, which would be even more unfavorable for his midterm elections. The war he launched against Iran was entirely a speculative action driven by personal will.

The entire war, from beginning to end, was conducted in a rushed manner, with a clear misjudgment of Iran’s military strength. In the end, he had no choice but to unilaterally withdraw and end it. Until the midterm election outlook becomes clear, he is even less likely to launch further military action.Trump has even offered postwar compensation to Iran in exchange for a compromise. Although implementing it specifically would be very difficult, a situation in which military strikes fail to achieve victory and one even ends up paying the opponent’s war costs to seek peace is rare in American history. A war launched by a mediocre businessman is nothing more than a complete farce. Although the United States has imposed the harshest economic sanctions on Iran, the greater the pressure, the stronger the rebound. Iran will further intensify its military strikes in the Middle East. Unable to safeguard the security of its regional allies, and with Israel left in isolation, America’s dominant position in the Middle East has been shaken.

By stopping assistance to Ukraine against Russia, the United States effectively withdrew from NATO and cut itself off from Europe, thereby losing its dominant position in Europe—and now the same pattern is being repeated in the Middle East.The trade war launched by Trump has in fact already been defeated by China; now he can only seek small gains from Canada. As long as the midterm elections are lost, Trump will accomplish nothing in the remainder of his term. Although America’s MAGA supporters remain infinitely loyal to him, for the majority of Americans, Trump’s rise to power has brought more problems than solutions. He can identify problems but cannot solve them, and in the end only causes the problems to worsen.

The United States has not become strong again; instead, it has been marginalized internationally and has lost its leadership position across all levels. Before Trump took office, the United States was still strong, but under his efforts, America’s decline has been accelerated and realized ahead of schedule.

美軍航母逃跑、油價起飛、伊朗笑了：這場戰爭到底誰贏了？

特朗普中東撤兵意味著伊朗實際上取得了美伊戰爭的勝利，成爲了實際意義上的中東王者，雖然被斬首了大批領導人，海空軍被摧毀，核武設施遭到嚴重破壞，但政權沒有受到影響。美國不出動地面部隊直接清繳，面對百萬平方公里上億人口的大國，僅靠有限軍事打擊和大面積空襲，完全沒有可能動搖伊朗現政府的統治。

伊朗通過超限戰實際上部份控制了霍爾木茲海峽，開始全面打擊美國在中東地區的軍事基地，中東各國家的能源設施受到威脅。伊朗政府利用外部壓力，迅速撲滅了內亂，並且通過戰爭控制了能源價格，進而影響了全球經濟的發展。這些戰略優勢和利益是戰爭之前所不具備的。現在美軍通過控制阿曼區域進行護航，控制了部份霍爾木茲海峽，然而伊朗卻在美軍控制區域外攻擊油輪，並且打擊東部沙特的能源管綫，發動對周邊國家的導彈無人機襲擊。特朗普想在伊朗重演委內瑞拉馬杜洛的斬首行動，為其中期選舉造勢，最後在以色列裹挾下，陷入進退兩難的境地，可以說美國發動的對伊戰爭失敗了。

美軍在數月的軍事消耗下再無戰力，軍備武器耗盡部隊需要休整，甚至航母編隊在維修重整完成前，最少6個月內甚至更長時間無法再戰，現在部署在阿曼的軍隊執行的也是有限的護航任務。特朗普現在關心的是國內的選情，至於油價上升導致通脹，只要戰爭停止上升的油價自然下降，相反中東戰爭持續油價會不斷上漲，對他的中期選舉更加不利。他發動的對伊戰爭完全是個人意志主導下的投機行動，整個戰爭從開始到結束都是倉促進行，對伊朗的軍事實力明顯誤判，最後只得單方面退出收場，直到中期選舉明朗化之前，更不可能發動進一步的軍事行動。

特朗普甚至為求妥協還提供伊朗戰後賠償，雖然具體實施起來難度很大，但這種軍事打擊不能取勝，甚至倒賠對方戰爭費用求和的情況，在美國歷史上都是罕見的。蹩腳商人發動的戰爭完全就是一齣鬧劇。美國雖然對伊朗發出了最嚴厲的經濟制裁，但所謂壓力越重反彈越大，伊朗更會加大對中東地區的軍事打擊，美國不能維護地區盟友的安全，以色列處於孤立狀態，因此美國在中東的主導地位動搖了。美國停止幫助烏克蘭對抗俄國，等於退出北約與歐洲切割，如此喪失了在歐洲的主導地位，現在居然在中東重演。

特朗普發動的貿易戰實際上已被中國擊敗，現在也只能在加拿大身上找便宜，只要中期選舉失利特朗普所剩任期將無所作爲。雖然美國的MAGA對他仍然無限忠誠，但對於多數美國人來説，特朗普上臺帶來的問題更多。他能發現問題但不能解決問題，最後反而導致了問題的惡化。美國不但沒有再次強大，反而在國際上被邊緣化，喪失了各個層面的國際領導地位。特朗普上臺之前美國仍然強大，但在他的努力下美國的衰弱提前實現。