2025年7月11日 星期五
2025年7月4日 星期五
Zelensky should wear shorts to see Trump who cuts off arms supply to support Russia again
After promising to provide Ukraine with some second-hand air defense missiles, Trump abruptly reneged again, citing urgent needs in the Middle East as a reason to delay arms supplies to Ukraine. This has left Zelenskyy in a highly passive position in the face of Russia's summer offensive. Currently, Russian forces have concentrated over ten divisions, totaling 110,000 troops, in Krasnoarmeysk, attempting to break through and capture the city to reverse their faltering momentum.
As Putin's lackey, Trump is naturally cooperating fully, ostensibly to force Ukraine back to the negotiating table, but in reality, to assist Russia in occupying Ukraine, annexing the four eastern regions and Crimea, and ensuring Ukraine does not join NATO or the EU. The war has now lasted over three years, with Russia facing opposition from the entire NATO alliance and more than 60 countries combined. Although Ukraine has not officially joined NATO, the difference is negligible. From a frail army of just over 100,000 at the war’s outset, Ukraine has grown into Europe’s, and perhaps the world’s, most battle-hardened force of a million soldiers.
As long as it receives military aid from the West, Ukraine can continue fighting indefinitely. Although Russia still occupies 20% of Ukrainian territory and holds a slight military advantage, Ukrainian morale is low, desertions are severe, and the army continues to face equipment shortages. Nevertheless, Ukraine has managed to hold the line against Russia, launching special operations that inflict heavy damage on Russian military equipment, energy infrastructure, and strategic facilities. In contrast, Russia has suffered over a million casualties, with significant depletion of Soviet-inherited equipment.
Its forces also face low morale and exhaustion, making it increasingly unsustainable. The battlefield remains a stalemate, with neither side able to decisively defeat the other or gain a strategic advantage to turn the tide. This war has become a test of endurance, a question of who can outlast the other. As Putin ages and his control weakens, Russia’s economic strength, military equipment, and war resources will eventually be exhausted, bringing the conflict to an end. As long as Putin remains in power, he will prolong the war, for if the Russian army stops fighting and withdraws, it could become uncontrollable, potentially leading to a coup, as seen in historical precedents like World War I. Russia is not the superpower the Soviet Union once was; its military capabilities are limited, and its economy is only on par with mid-tier European nations.
Though Russia’s vast territory spans millions of square kilometers, only the 3 million square kilometers in its European part are suitable for development. With a population of 140 million—far larger than Ukraine’s 20 million—Russia can mobilize around 3 million for combat, but over a million have already been lost. Moreover, the Russian military’s capabilities are outdated, relying on World War II-style attrition tactics, which are ineffective against the advanced technological equipment supplied by the West. This is essentially a war between two different eras. Even with Trump’s covert support pressuring Ukraine into submission and signing agreements to cede territory and pay reparations, as long as Ukraine maintains its military strength, the war could reignite after Trump leaves office and Putin retires. Once Trump’s term ends, his controversial actions will likely lead to a reckoning, and NATO will inevitably return to its previous stance of suppressing Russia.
Putin’s health has been deteriorating since the war began, and even if he holds on for a few more years, his time is limited. This is his personal war, his final gamble on the promise of Russia’s great revival. But after him, both he and Russia as we know it may cease to exist. Zelenskyy, on the other hand, is still young, even without a suit. His repeated appearances in military attire during meetings with Trump were meant to convey that Ukraine is in dire straits, that he has just come from the battlefield, and that U.S. military aid is a given. He came to apply pressure, but the reality is the opposite: Trump, a Russian asset who rose to power through the Russia scandal, is intent on suppressing Ukraine. Even if Zelenskyy reluctantly dons a suit, Trump will still undermine Ukraine. In the current situation, the worst-case scenario for Zelenskyy might be to accept some of the conditions imposed by the U.S. and Russia, trading territory for peace, which is not entirely unacceptable.
By outlasting the authoritarian regimes of the U.S. and
Russia, strengthening its military, building up resources, and implementing
domestic reforms, Ukraine will ultimately prevail. The war can always be
restarted in the future. Thus, the current strategy of fighting while
negotiating, combining military and political struggles, is also a means to
achieve military victory. Fighting paves the way for talks, and if talks fail,
the fighting can resume. A ceasefire is not entirely unacceptable, and a suit is
not something that must always be worn!
特朗普斷供軍火支持俄夏季反攻澤連斯基見他該穿短褲
特朗普在答應烏克蘭提供一部份二手防空導彈後，突然又反悔以中東急需爲由暫緩了烏克蘭的武器供應，如此將使澤連斯基在面對俄羅斯夏季攻勢時非常被動，目前俄軍在紅軍村集中了10多個師11萬部隊，試圖打開缺口一舉拿下紅軍村挽回頹勢。作爲普京的走狗特朗普自然是要全力配合，名義上是迫使烏克蘭回到談判桌，實際還是幫助俄羅斯侵佔烏克蘭，割讓東部4州和克裡米亞，保證不加入北約和歐盟。
戰爭發展到現在已經3年多，俄羅斯面對的是整個北約和總共60多個國家的整體對抗，烏克蘭雖然沒有加入北約但實際上和加入又有何區別，從開戰時的十多萬孱弱軍隊，打成現在歐洲乃至全世界最有戰鬥力的百萬大軍，只要得到歐美的軍援烏克蘭可以一直戰鬥下去。雖然目前俄羅斯仍占領烏克蘭20%的土地，在軍事上也略占優勢，烏軍士氣低下逃亡嚴重，而且始終面臨武器彈藥不足的困擾，但目前讓然能夠維持局面與俄羅斯周旋，並且不斷發動特種作戰，重創俄軍，軍備，能源和戰略設施。
相反俄羅斯傷亡已超百萬，蘇聯繼承下來的裝備大量耗損，也面臨士氣低下軍隊疲態盡顯難以爲繼的局面，目前在戰場上雙方仍然陷入僵局，都沒有能力消滅對方，取得決定性優勢扭轉戰局，這場戰爭發展成爲時間的戰爭，看誰能夠耗到最後。俄羅斯普京等到年事已高控制力減弱，經濟能量，軍事裝備，戰爭資源耗盡，戰爭也就結束了。只要普京仍然健在就一定會將戰爭延續下去，否則軍隊一旦停戰撤退返回國內，將會很難控制不能避免發生政變的可能。當年第一次世界大戰如此，歷史上也發生過多次。俄羅斯不是前蘇聯不是超級強權，軍事能力有限，經濟能力也就是中等歐洲國家的水準。
雖然國土遼闊但除去西伯利亞和遠東，也就是歐洲部份的3百多萬平方公里適合發展。人口1.4億雖然遠多於烏克蘭的2千多萬，但真正能夠用於戰場作戰的全國也就是3百多萬，現在已經耗損過百萬。況且俄軍軍事能力低下，直到現在還是沿襲二戰堆填人命的消耗式打法，在面對歐美的先進技術裝備時弱勢盡顯，基本上是兩個時代的戰爭。即便普京有特朗普的暗中支持逼迫烏克蘭就範，簽署協議割土賠款，只要烏克蘭能夠維持軍力，特朗普下臺普京退休後戰爭仍會繼續。
況且只要特蘭普結束任期，下臺後以他的倒行逆施必然被清算，北約還是會走回以前的軌道，對俄羅斯再次打壓。普京開戰至今健康狀況每下愈況，即便能夠再撐幾年又能維持多久，這是他一個人的戰爭，也是他承諾俄羅斯民族偉大復興的最後一戰，之後連同他和俄羅斯都將不復存在。但澤連斯基即便不穿西裝也還年輕，他之前所以軍便裝出席多次與特朗普會談，想表現的是烏克蘭水深火熱，他是從戰場上剛下來，而且理所當然地認爲美國的軍援是必然的，他是來施加壓力的但實際情況正好相反，特朗普是俄羅斯的間諜，通過通俄門才當上了總統。
所以即便澤連司機彆扭地穿起西裝，特朗普還是要打壓烏克蘭。按照目前的形勢對於澤連斯基來講，最壞的打算即便是接受美俄的部份條件，以國土換取和平也不是完全不能接受。熬過美俄獨裁者，加強軍備，積蓄力量，國內改革，烏克蘭最終必將獲勝，戰爭在將來可以隨時再開打。因此現在的邊打邊談，時打時談，打談結合，軍事鬥爭結合外交政治鬥爭，也是爭取軍事勝利的一種手段，打就是爲了談，談不攏可以再打。停戰不是完全不能接受的，西裝也不是一定就要穿的，下次直接穿短褲特朗普也沒辦法！
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