雪平莉左

 

エリマリ姉妹

 

風吹ケイ

 

沢美沙樹

 

Rare earths strike, Trump crumbles” — The Sino-US trade war farce escalates again

 

Trump is set to launch another trade war, imposing a 100% tariff on China. The main trigger was the U.S. decision to impose additional fees on Chinese cargo ships, which led China to retaliate by strictly controlling rare earth exports and restricting exports of industrial synthetic diamonds, magnets, lithium batteries, and hard materials. Trump subsequently posted again, claiming the situation was not serious and hinting at a desire to ease tensions with China. His so-called 100% tariff was merely a spontaneous remark, unknown even to U.S. government officials, just a venting on Twitter that does not represent the U.S. government's stance. China dismissed it with disdain and has not yet proposed counter-tariff measures. Trump, a so-called president with no credibility, flip-flopping, and decisions driven not by reason but by his personal whims, initially aimed to create leverage before meeting Chinese leaders. Now, his miscalculation has backfired, leaving him with no cards to play, forcing him to lower himself to seek China's favor. It’s not the U.S. trying to decouple from China anymore; 

China has actively chosen to cut ties with the U.S. Many countries possess rare earths, but none match China’s production scale, refining technology, price variety, or output capacity. China has developed a complete rare earth industrial chain, while other countries have barely tapped their resources. Even with full investment now, it would take 10-15 years to build a basic scale. Moreover, China fully controls rare earth prices, making competition impossible since its rare earths are state-controlled resources, priced by directive rather than profit.Pakistan is building ports to export rare earths to the U.S., but refining still relies on China. U.S. rare earth companies also depend on Chinese technology to process raw materials. Without rare earths, Europe and the U.S. would halt production of fighter jets, nuclear submarines, cruise missiles, chips, and the entire semiconductor industry, as these cannot be manufactured without them. Continued sanctions on China’s high-end chips would ultimately leave the U.S. without chips, and Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan would also cease production. 

Crucially, the products China banned from export—synthetic diamonds for industrial machine tools, lithium batteries for new energy development, magnets, and hard materials for manufacturing—are items the U.S. and Western countries cannot produce independently. Charging fees on Chinese cargo ships triggered China’s retaliation, and mutual sanctions could disrupt global shipping, slowing the world economy.China accounts for 16 of the world’s top 20 ports, manufactures over 60% of global ships, and handles 30% of global shipping volume. If Chinese goods stop shipping due to extra costs or rerouting, U.S. inflation will rise, and its economy will deteriorate, especially under Trump’s pressure to cut interest rates. Charging fees on China-related cargo ships is essentially another form of tariff. Despite Trump’s two trade wars, China has prepared comprehensively over nearly a decade. U.S.-China trade, suppressed by Trump, now accounts for less than 10% of China’s total foreign trade, with a 7% increase in trade with other countries last year and record-high trade surpluses, including with the U.S. Objectively, even if U.S.-China trade stops, it wouldn’t be a fatal blow to China, which could reroute trade through other countries. 

As an authoritarian state, China is indifferent to domestic impacts. Conversely, the U.S. could lose midterm elections if adversaries stop buying its soybeans, corn, and wheat.In April, Trump manipulated financial markets through tariff factors, profiting his family and realizing his “Make America Great Again” plan. This situation is similar, likely with prior stock market bets, but China’s aggressive response leaves Trump’s next move uncertain. He claims no need to meet Chinese leaders again, but the real issue is that they have no interest in easing tensions with him. The so-called “Great America” bill has left the U.S. government with a $5 trillion deficit, truly broke, resorting to haphazard tariffs on other countries, including cargo ship fees, to grab money. China’s sudden strike shows the tariff-driven trade war is over. Unless Trump stops creating chaos in the international free trade system, China will bypass the U.S. to build a new global trade order.Beyond exporting dollars and military forces, the U.S. produces no domestically manufactured goods. Global trade won’t stop without the U.S., but without global trade, the U.S. will lose its international dominance, and the dollar will lose its global currency status, ending U.S. hegemony. Just as the Russia-Ukraine war cost the U.S. its NATO leadership, trade wars will isolate it globally. 

Without rare earths, Western military industries will halt, semiconductors will collapse, shipping will face a fatal blow, renewable energy will stall, agriculture will decline, and inflation will trigger economic collapse. Without rare earths, there are no semiconductors, no chips, no AI—devastating the U.S.’s remaining high-tech and AI industries and crashing financial markets.China, without U.S. soybeans, pork, oil, or chips, remains unaffected, producing domestically or buying elsewhere. U.S. consumers, however, cannot survive short- or medium-term without Chinese goods. Trump’s second term has been reckless, aiming for his family’s “greatness” rather than America’s revival. His actions—raising tariffs, disrupting global trade, supporting Russia over Ukraine, undermining NATO, attempting land grabs, manipulating markets for personal gain, weakening military civilian oversight, ignoring U.S. traditions for lifelong presidency, and installing loyalists for authoritarian rule—are driving America’s decline, not its greatness. Yet, many ignorant Americans still support Trump, believing his shameless lies.

China’s proactive strike targets not America but Trump, putting the U.S. in a passive position. Whether it’s financial oligarchs, the deep state, or military-industrial bosses, the U.S. must urgently find a suitable replacement, following its historical tradition to resolve the issue of an incompetent president. Trump, a failed businessman, amateur politician, and foolish clown, has reached his final moment to exit the global political stage.

 

「稀土一出，川普就土」中美貿易戰已經見分曉了

 

特朗普又要發動貿易戰對中國徵收100%的關稅，事情的主因是美國事先要對中國貨輪徵收額外費用，最後導致中國反制嚴格控制稀土出口，並且對工業用人工鑽石，磁鐵，鋰電池和硬質材料等進行出口限制。特朗普隨後再次發文稱事態並不嚴重，暗示希望與中國緩和關係。他所謂的加關稅100%無非是一時興起的言論，甚至連美國政府官員事都一無所知，就是在推特上亂寫發泄罷了，根本不能代表美國政府的立場。中國對此不屑一顧，至今都沒有提出同等反關稅措施。

特朗普這種毫無信用出爾反爾，腦袋長在屁股上的所謂總統，做出的任何決定根本就不經大腦，而是出自個人的排泄系統。原本是希望在與中國領導人會面前製造有利籌碼，現在弄巧成拙反而自己沒牌可打了，反過來還得自降身價去求中國，現在不是美國想和中國脫鈎，而是中國不打算和美國玩下去主動切割了。世界上擁有稀土的國家很多，但無論是生產規模，提煉技術，價格種類，產能產值都遠不及中國，國際上只有中國發展出了完整的稀土全產業，其他國家根本就沒有開發稀土資源，即便現在全面投入產業，最少需要10-15年才能有基礎規模。況且中國還完全控制了國際稀土價格，即便開發成功也不可能與之競爭，中國稀土屬於政府管控資源，根本就不需要賺錢，價格都是政府指定。

例如巴基斯坦最近建設港口向美國出口稀土，但最後精煉還是要靠中國，美國的稀土廠商也是依靠中國的技術才能將原材料提煉。沒有了稀土歐美從戰鬥機，核潛艇，巡航導彈到晶片，甚至整體半導體產業都會停產，因爲沒有稀土根本無法生產和使用。如此不斷制裁禁絕中國高端晶片下，最後結果是美國自己沒有晶片可用，而且日本韓國台灣也無法繼續生產。最關鍵的是中國禁止出口的產品都是美國和西方國家不能獨立生產的，人造鑽石牽涉到工業機床，鋰電池有關新能源開發，硬質材料磁鐵等影響工業製造等等。對中國遠洋貨輪收費觸發中國反制，最後互相制裁下會引發全球航運混亂，世界經濟收到衝擊而放緩。

全世界20大港口中國占16個，全球超過6成的輪船是中國製造，海運佔全球總量3成，如果中國貨物因額外成本而停止海運或經過轉口，勢必導致美國通脹上升經濟惡化，況且還是在特朗普逼迫降息的前提下。美國對與中國相關的貨輪都要收費，這無疑就是另一種關稅，因爲中國貨物出口歐美數量龐大，但自特朗普兩次發動貿易戰後，中國已經在將近10年的時間內做好了全面的應對準備，中美貿易因爲特朗普的打壓，最近下降到整體海外貿易的10%不到，而且去年對世界其他國家的貿易額增加了7%，並且貿易順差創新高，對美貿易順差也增加了。客觀上說即便中美貿易中斷，對於中國也算不上致命打擊，最多就是通過其他國家多做幾次轉口，況且還是一個極權國家，根本不在乎內部產生的影響。相反美國即便是因爲對手不再購買大豆，玉米和小麥，就能導致特朗普有可能失去中期選舉。

4月份通過關稅因素下暗中操控金融市場，特朗普使家族大賺其錢“再次偉大”的計劃得以實現，本次情況大同小異估計他早就在股市上佈局了，但問題是這次中國主動出擊手段狠辣，特朗普將如何收場值得關注。他稱沒有必要與中國領導再次見面，現在的困擾是對方本就不想和特朗普緩和關係。所謂的“大美麗”法案導致美國政府再虧空5萬多億美元已經真沒錢了，對其他國家亂收関稅來搶錢而已，包括增加貨輪收費。中國突然出招打擊美國顯示，中美因關稅引發的貿易戰已經結束，除非特朗普在國際自由貿易體系中，人爲製造混亂的鬧劇徹底結束，否則中國將跳開美國重新打造全新的世界貿易秩序。

除了對外輸出美元和軍隊，美國不輸出任何本國製造出來的商品，沒有美國世界貿易不會停止，但沒有世界貿易美國將失去國際主導地位，如此美元也就會失去國際貨幣地位，美國全球霸主地位也將一去不復返。正如因俄烏戰爭導致美國已經失去北約領導權一樣，最後的結果是美國因爲軍事戰爭被北約排斥，因貿易戰爭被世界排斥。沒了稀土歐美大量的軍工產業會停產，半導體產業會集體停頓。美國航運業遭到致命打擊，新能源產業無法發展，農業生產會衰退，國內通脹加劇經濟崩潰。沒有稀土就沒有半導體，就不會有晶片，也就沒了AI，美國現在所剩無幾的高科技和AI產業就會遭到致命打擊，金融市場會受到重創。

中國沒有了美國的大豆，豬肉，石油，晶片等產品不受影響，可以自己生產或向其他國家購買。美國人民沒有了中國產品中短期根本無非生活。特朗普二次上臺後倒行逆施，他想實現的是自己家族的“再次偉大”，而不是美國的再次復興。相反他所做的一切增加他國關稅破壞全球貿易秩序，支持俄國放棄烏克蘭破壞北約架構，妄圖兼併他國土地，暗中操控金融市場謀求私人利益，打破美軍文官體制控制國家軍隊，無視美國傳統謀取總統終身連任，在政府內部搞任人唯親極權統治等等，他所做的一切都是在讓美國衰敗，不是再次偉大。即便如此仍有大量無知美國人支持特朗普，相信他編造的無恥謊言。

中國本次主動出擊打壓不是美國而是特朗普，他現在的局面非常被動。現在美國要做的不管是金融寡頭，深層政府還是軍工老闆，應該儘快出面找一個合適人選，按照美國的歷史傳統徹底解決無能總統的問題，特朗普這個失敗商人，業餘政治家，愚蠢的廢物，真正的小丑，已經到了在世界政治舞臺上，正式謝幕收場的最後一刻。

澤北るな

 

海津雪乃