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2025年1月17日 星期五

特朗普上臺后立馬結束俄烏戰爭是盲人綉花瞎逞能

 


隨著特朗普的上臺俄烏停戰問題迫在眉睫,從最初吹噓的24小時解決,到現在説是在半年內,如果持續3年的戰爭只憑他一句話就能解決,那戰爭根本就不會發生,俄烏邊境衝突從2014年開始持續了十年之久,最後才發展到俄國的全面入侵。對於烏克蘭來講整個國家已經被破壞,現在要冒著失去20%領土的風險,接受永久不加入北約的承諾,去接受喪失國土條件下的所謂停戰,無論從任何一個角度看都是難以接受的。

 

北約支持烏克蘭對抗俄國3年,烏克蘭軍隊已發展成了全球最有戰鬥力的軍事力量,裝備精良,經驗豐富,作戰意志頑強,戰術精妙,只要戰爭持續下去在歐美的支持下,俄羅斯被長期消耗下必敗。即便是再打幾年普京年事已高健康惡化,這場一個人的戰爭也不可能持續下去。只要戰爭失敗普京政權瓦解必然導致俄羅斯的解體,如此歐洲數百年來的安全問題將被徹底解決,對於全球的極權勢力來講,俄羅斯的崩塌也將是重大打擊,從而導致全球政治勢力的重新洗牌。

 

然而,目前在特朗普所謂的調解下,實際上是利用個人勢力,逼迫烏克蘭以土地換取和平,最後導致的結果是俄羅斯通過停戰,再次因侵略得到了領土利益,從車臣,格魯吉亞,南奧塞締,克裡米亞到烏克蘭東南部四州,俄國勢力不斷膨脹,普京承諾的俄羅斯偉大復興逐步實現。現在促成這一切的不是普京而是特朗普,俄羅斯因多年的戰爭已經成爲被國際重點打擊的孤立對象,現在唯一能夠拯救俄羅斯的就是美國新任總統特朗普。他當年通過普京的暗中支持,爆冷擊敗希拉蕊當選了總統,俄羅斯掌握了全部證據,這也是所謂“通俄門”的由來。所以,現在他必定要幫助普京擺脫困境,至少在未來4年內保證他的統治。

 

問題是特朗普是否有能力輕而易舉促成停戰,就是迫使烏克蘭接受停戰條件,讓俄羅斯停止軍事行動,歐洲國家出兵維和,美國袖手旁觀,如此戰爭就結束了!歐盟國家已經表示即便失去美國支持,也會獨立援助烏克蘭對抗俄羅斯,烏克蘭也斷不會接受喪失國土的談判條件。即便實現所謂的停戰也不能保證兩國將來不會擦槍走火,俄羅斯甚至連最基本的撤軍都不能保證。不撤兵軍事對峙還將持續,撤兵則烏克蘭有可能撕毀協議,發動收復領土的衛國戰爭,如此將會導致戰爭惡化。俄烏戰爭的問題的根源就是領土問題,烏克蘭可以承諾永久放棄加入北約,但俄羅斯絕不會放棄得到的烏克蘭領土,如此雙方談判的基本條件都不能滿足。

 

特朗普利用蠻力可以迫使雙方短期停火,但是長期衝突即便是特朗普完成4年任期後還是會再次發生,況且未來幾年兩者的軍事衝突不可避免。北約的成立就是爲了對抗蘇聯,而且在冷戰中發揮了巨大作用,最後阻止了東西兩大陣營的熱戰爆發,雖然在冷戰後的40年北約進入休眠期,但隨著俄羅斯的對外擴張,過去3年北約軍事力量得以重新啓動,機制運轉開始恢復正常,事實上冷戰後北約戰爭機器雖有損壞但功能尚在。


特朗普可以通過不支援烏克蘭,導致北約內部分裂而喪失部份功能,但北約作爲軍事機器有內部糾錯功能,一旦重新開動任何阻擋其運作的力量都將會被碾碎,更而何況現在是一個業餘政客,失敗商人,歷史小丑特朗普,他再次入住白宮之日就是被狙擊槍瞄準之時,而且後續的子彈將一次比一次更接近他的致命部位。

三上悠亜

 








2025年1月16日 星期四

朝日杜鵑





 

将死之人做了一件事情居然逆天改命科甲发迹

 


明朝時,有位李生,家庭很貧困。一天,街上一位算命先生告訴他說,從其面相上看白露節前將命終,李生聽了十分憂鬱。鄉試將近,幾個同學來邀約他一起去趕考。由於算命者所說的話,他不想去,又無路費,加以拒絕。有位王生,家中富有而且很重義氣,拿出十金送給他,並勸他說:「算命先生的話,不足以信。這十金作安家之用,路上所用行李費用等,由我來辦!」李生感激他的慷慨大義,就一起結伴前往。當時立秋已經好幾天了。



來到金陵,聽說承恩寺有位相士談吉凶禍福,每每出奇準確,李生就和住在同一旅館的同學六人,前去看相。那位相士看了他們六人,說出他們之中誰是廩生,誰是監生;誰的父母雙全,誰的雙親俱歿,一一說的毫釐不差。並說其中一人本次科考,可中副榜,其它人都不中。輪到李生時,先問了家住哪縣,離此多遠,然後屈指一算,說:「趕快回去,還來得及!」大家忙問相士為什麼。相士說:「你的面相枯槁,天庭上已現晦紋,依相理,以後五日之內必死於非命。應當趕快回家,但依相看,應當死在路上。即使馬上動身,恐怕也來不及了。」王生和眾人都感震駭,問:「有無解救之法?」相士說:「生死大數,如果沒有大陰德,是不足以回天的。現在日期已迫,能有什麼辦法!」大家都一路沉默,回到寓所。李生對王生說:「先前兄長極力勸服我來。今天相士所說與以前算命先生的話相同,必當有所應驗。我並不怕死,但不想給大家添麻煩,不如馬上趕回家去。」大家都同意。王生很憐憫他,替他雇了船,給了路費,又另外給他十金,說:「把這留下,以備急用。」李生再三致謝。



李生在長江上走了十多裡,風太大不能再走,就把船系在岸邊。轉眼過了四天,風勢更猛,李生信步在岸上走,大概走了一裡多地,四周不見人跡。忽然看見一中年孕婦,帶著三個幼小孩子,左手抱一個,右手拉一個,身後還跟一個,邊走邊哭,十分悲苦,與李生擦肩而過。李生急切的問道:「你有什麼急難,請千萬告訴我,也許能幫上點忙!」婦人說:「我丈夫性情暴戾,我母子常受打罵,體無完膚。今天他去市場,家裡有兩隻豬,臨走前對我說要賣十金。後來有人來買,果然得了十金,我怕是假銀子,就和他一起去銀店驗估,成色沒錯。回到家,那人忽然嫌價貴,把銀子要了回去。隔了一會又回來,又要拿原銀買豬。我看那銀子沒有什麼差錯,就沒有懷疑,把豬交給他了。鄰居來我家見了銀子,驚訝說是銅,我急忙追出去找那買主,已不見人影。趕快去銀店估驗,說是銅,一連走了幾家,都說是銅。心想,受了這場大騙,丈夫回來非被打死不可。



現在我母子只有死路一條。」說著就要往江邊走。李生忙要過銀子一看,果然是銅,這時王生所送的銀子正好揣在袖子裡,就把袖中的銀子調換了遞給婦人,說:「你真是差點鑄成大錯!這是銀子,不是銅。」婦人說:「好幾家銀店都說是銅,先生為啥要哄我!」李生說:「你和我一塊去,再驗驗麼。」婦人聽了他的話,一起走了三四裡路,才到了一家銀店,把錢交去驗證,說是真銀;去了幾家,都說是銀。婦人大喜說:「幸虧遇到先生,不然幾乎犯下大錯!」拿了錢叩謝而去。



李生忙往回趕,當時已暮色蒼茫,迷失了路,又無處打聽,見近處隱約有幾間房屋,走近一看,都是敗壁禿垣,原來是座廟。不得已只好坐在廊簷下,慢慢就睡著了。朦朧中,聽到有衙役吆喝之聲傳出來。李生伸頭一看,見大殿上燈火通明,兩旁侍從官吏森然而立,中間有一王者模樣的人坐在堂案之後。忽然聽到王者說:「今天江邊有一人救了五條性命,應當查清此人,給以福報。」當下,有一位紫衣吏,手拿文卷,啟稟說:「剛才得土地神申報,是某縣一讀書人。」



王者下令檢看祿籍簿,再查一下,看他這次秋榜是否得中。就有一位繡衣吏,手捧一文簿,上前說:「這人的官祿和性命都已盡了。應在今夜子時,在本廟廊下被牆塌壓斃。」王者說:「如果這樣的話,怎能勸人為善?!應該改注祿籍。昨天得文昌宮通知,本次秋試中江南解元一名,因為淫汙婢女而被除名,就讓此人補缺。」旁有人說:「他的錢是王生所贈,王生輕財尚義,才使此人得成善果。追流溯源,王生也應登名祿籍。」王者說:「好!」並命檢看祿籍,回報說:「王生應在下次科考中五十三名。」繡衣吏上前請示:「本次科考第五十三名,以犯口過,罰停一科。由誰取代,文昌宮還未定奪。請示,是否讓王生替此缺?」王者說:「可以!」李生正在專心聽殿上的對答,忽然耳旁似乎有人大呼:「快出!快出!」大驚而醒,只聽牆土簌簌往下掉,連忙爬起來摸黑往外跑,剛出來,牆便轟然倒下,正壓在原來所坐之處。



李生心中默想神明所說之話,一定應驗,天明後到廟裡謝了神明,找路回到船上,重返金陵,一路揚帆順風,不久就到。等李生來到客店,同學都很驚訝,隨即高興的為他祝賀。第二天,在街上碰到相士,相士見了李生驚訝的說:「你不是我說五天之內當死的那位嗎?」眾異口同聲應說:「對啊!今天都七天了,怎麼樣呢?」相士說:「現在不會死了。數日不見,他骨相大異從前,面相也一下子好了。以前我曾說過,沒有大陰德,是不能回天的。先生一定做了非同尋常的大善事,救了數條人命,所以才能挽回造化之力。今天你滿面陰騭,今科考試,必定中頭榜!明年聯捷入翰林,官登一品,壽數增到八十!」又笑著說:「這件事並非偶然。半月前我曾為一秀才看相,他眉宇明堂光采非同一般,肯定是今科解元。昨天他又來看相,但額上卻有懸針之紋,失去了以前的光采,他必然有大隱慝,祿籍被削除了。沒有想到,取代他的是你。」



他又指著王生說:「先生臉上也有陰騭,一定會和這位先生一同考中。」王生笑說:「我的朋友怎麼樣,我不知道。至於說我本人,哪裡做了什麼善事?」回到客棧,李生悄悄對王生說:「那人可真是位神相。他的話一點不假,你恩兄該中第五十三名!」就把所遇事情的始末告訴了王生,並且說:「如果沒有恩兄所贈之金,我只有眼睜睜看著人家去死。今天幸蒙神佑,都是仁兄的恩惠呀!」王生詫異的說:「你老兄才有如此大量!真要如此,我卻應該感謝你才對哩。那位相士可真夠神的!」這年科試,李生果然中瞭解元,王生也考中了。第二年,兩人同入了翰林。後來果然象相士所說的那樣。



以區區十兩銀子行善,而神明都要溯本窮源,賜予福報;而行邪淫的人,很快就被削掉祿籍。李生雖說壽數即至,但他能救濟別人的急難,行善之後祿和壽立即得到增長,福壽變化就是這樣迅速。而疏財仗義的好友,也蒙受了樂善好施的善報,真是「天道無親,常與善人」,濟人危難是善之所在,心量廣大,福德也廣大!

 

Yuuhi Shitara 設楽ゆうひ

 








Eyu Hirayama 平山えゆ

 








2025年1月15日 星期三

車路士後防綫上再亂買一氣幾個彭馬式的球員口眼都可以閉了

 


車路士在2-2追平普利茅夫之後,近年那支熟悉的死皮賴臉的藍軍又回來了,聖誕快車5場不勝,面對弱隊不但破門乏術且屢次反敗,每次甚至連劇本都完全相同,彭馬依靠個人能力領先,然後後防失誤對方追平,對方再次反擊後反勝,教練馬列斯卡也表示無奈,當然這種結局對於賭球集團來説再好不過,賺錢容易下注方便,車仔即便打不出比分,還有迪薩斯故意失誤送分,上賽季甚至還有吊己方空門的名場面,嘲笑中超假球太幼稚,英超很多球會的贊助商都是賭博集團,歷來就是賭球集團的重中之重,很多比賽的結果都是操控的,最簡單的就是控制後衛打出需要的比分。


藍軍成績不佳的原因很簡單,鋒綫缺乏穩定的得分手,尼古拉積遜不堪大用,賽季初狀態好還能進幾個球,賽季中場次頻繁狀態下滑破門乏術,每場必定浪費幾個必入機會,最後導致不能保持領先優勢,足球歷來是你不進我進,英超各隊實力接近不能把握機會,就只能等對方以其人之道,還至其人之身了。在車仔中前場目前已經成型具備相當實力的情況下,引入強力中鋒就成了當務之急,等待尼古拉成長不切實際,此君最多就是個後備之選。藍軍歷來以出產杜奧巴,蒂亞戈柯斯達,哈索賓基等著名中鋒而出名,尼古拉積遜與前輩相比不在一個檔次。恩官古適合踢影子前鋒,而且打法不適應英超,雖有得分能力但不具備中鋒條件,傷停一年後狀態有所起伏,長期沒有正選尋求離隊,因此車仔必須儘快補入有能力的前鋒刻不容緩。

 

中場目前已經具備一定力度,反而是後防綫問題叢生,主要集中在中堅方面,邊路反而能攻能守問題不大,中路高維和科芬拿不堪一用,巴迪亞西勒和迪薩斯絕對參與賭球,如此豆腐渣防綫豈能在英超立足,應該立刻補足後防中堅位置,不需要大牌球星年長一些有經驗的英超球員即可,而且不需要投入天價費用,甚至可以在1月轉會視窗補足,即便是能力一般的後衛,只要發揮正常就可以勝任,畢竟後腰位置實力強勁可以幫補。現在的後防實在能力低下到慘不忍睹,隨便找個低組別的球員都能夠取而代之。

 

今年藍軍的目標是前4,雖然聯賽剛開打時新教練結束了球隊的混亂局面成績穩定,但進入中段球隊的弊端顯現丟分的程度令人髮指,而且是在球隊整體實力大幅提升的前提下,只要在重點位置補足幾名球員即可有所恢復,因此需要球會對此做出迅速反應。只要能夠保證歐洲賽席位就算完成任務,在歐協有好表現降維打擊下,能夠奪冠也就算功德圓滿了。至於球會古怪的球員引入政策,現在既然證明有效也無可厚非,哪怕就是靠運氣如能多買幾個彭馬,多花些冤枉錢也是值得稱道的。

ちとせよしの

 








2025年1月14日 星期二

Taking Greenland will make Trump the true leader of the community of human destiny and rule for life

 


Trump has stated that he does not rule out using military means to seize Greenland, citing the need to counter military threats from China and Russia. Greenland has a population of only 50,000 to 60,000 people, and Denmark, the Netherlands, and the EU provide economic assistance. The only military base on Greenland is American, and Denmark, as the sovereign state, is a NATO member. Therefore, Greenland is under NATO's protection, and the U.S., as the leading force in NATO, has no justification for occupying Greenland for military purposes. As for the claim that Greenland has rare earth resources urgently needed by the U.S., rare earth mining involves extracting a few grams of elements from several tons of ore, which severely damages the environment and is rejected by many countries. Moreover, mining in Greenland's hard permafrost environment is costly and difficult. Ultimately, Trump's proposal is still a territorial claim, similar to the annexation of Canada, to easily fulfill his so-called campaign promise of making America great again. This is the same excuse Putin used to invade Ukraine, only replacing the great revival of the Russian nation with the American one.


Recently, the same logic has appeared in Trump's statements regarding Canada and Panama. In short, as long as it benefits the U.S., other countries must give up their sovereignty; otherwise, they face tariffs or military invasion. To achieve America's greatness, Trump can justify territorial expansion just like Putin. Although wars have continued worldwide since the end of the Cold War, there has been no large-scale global war, allowing humanity to enjoy relative peace for over 40 years and gradually achieve globalization through economic and trade cooperation. Until the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, countries hoped to keep the war within controllable limits. Given the current progress of the war and Russia's military decline, if it continues for a while longer, Russia's military resources will be exhausted, and Putin will undoubtedly be defeated, ending the war and avoiding further deterioration. However, with Trump's return and many uncertainties in the next four years, the confrontation between the East and West camps on the Ukrainian battlefield will undergo unpredictable changes.


The alliance of Russia, China, North Korea, Iran and others are likely to gain a decisive military advantage, while Ukraine will face total defeat, losing territory and permanently unable to join NATO. Trump's recent territorial demands on other countries aim to legitimize aggressive wars using America's strength. Thus, Russia's territorial invasion of Ukraine becomes a legitimate demand. The U.S. withdrawing support for Ukraine will lead to NATO's disintegration, and Europe alone cannot bear the long-term pressure of war against Russia. Ultimately, Europe will have to abandon or conditionally support Ukraine. With NATO's disintegration, the military force to counter Russia will no longer exist. Initially, Russia invaded Ukraine to prevent NATO's eastward expansion, but it will eventually lead to Russia's westward expansion. After solving the Ukraine issue, Russia's next step will inevitably be to invade Poland and expand into Eastern Europe. In short, Ukraine's failure is Putin's victory, and the great revival of the Russian nation will finally succeed.


After Trump dismantles NATO, Russia will ally with rogue states in the West, creating a new world order and establishing a new community of human destiny. The so-called democratic system will collapse with the disintegration of military alliances, leading humanity into unprecedented changes since World War II. Trump is the ultimate decisive force relied upon by authoritarian countries, a true nuclear bomb lurking in Western countries yet to explode. In the next four years, he will bear the historical mission of ending NATO, helping Russia rebuild the former Soviet Empire's glory, and, along with other allies, reshape the international order. Trump will become the core creator of the community of human destiny, the leader of the world's people, and rule for life.

 

奪取格林蘭島特朗普將成爲人類命運共同體的真正領袖終生執政

 


特朗普稱不排除用軍事手段奪取格林蘭,理由是應對中俄的軍事威脅。格林蘭居民只有5-6萬人,丹麥,荷蘭和歐盟在經濟上對其進行援助,格林蘭島唯一擁有的軍事基地就是美國的,丹麥是其宗主國,本身也是北約成員囯,因此格林蘭島也屬於北約的保護範圍,美國是北約的主導力量,因此出於軍事目的占領格林蘭島完全沒有理據。至於島上有美國急需的稀土資源的説法,稀土開發屬於發掘幾十噸礦石,只能提取幾十克元素的產業,並且嚴重破壞環境受到各國排斥,何況在格林蘭島堅硬凍土環境下開礦成本高昂談何容易。特朗普説到底提出的還是領土要求,正如合併加拿大一樣,如此才能輕易實現他所謂的競選承諾,讓美國再次偉大。這與普京入侵烏克蘭的藉口完全相同,不過是將實現俄羅斯民族的偉大復興改成美利堅罷了。

 

最近同樣的邏輯也出現在特朗普針對加拿大和巴拿馬的言論上,簡而言之只要對美國有利,其他國家都必須放棄主權,否則不是關稅打壓就是軍事侵略。爲了實現美國的所謂強大,可以和普京一樣明正言順地進行領土擴張。冷戰結束後全世界範圍內雖然戰爭不斷,但相對來講沒有發生世界範圍的大規模戰爭,因此人類獲得了相對和平的40多年時間,並且發展經貿合作逐步實現全球化。直到俄烏衝突爆發各國還是希望將戰爭盡量保持在可控的範圍內,按照目前戰爭的進程伴隨著俄國軍事上的頹勢,只要再持續一段時間俄羅斯軍事資源耗盡普京必敗無疑,到時候戰爭自然結束而且避免了惡化的可能。然而,隨著特朗普的回歸在未來的4年在許多不明朗因素刺激下,目前在東西兩大陣營在烏克蘭戰場上的較量將發生難以預料的變化。

 

俄羅斯,中國,朝鮮,伊朗等國家組成的聯盟,很有可能在軍事上取得決定性的優勢,相反烏克蘭則不得不面對喪失土地,永久不能加入北約下的全面失敗。特朗普最近對他國提出的所謂領土要求,目的無非是利用美國的強勢將侵略戰爭合理化。如此俄羅斯對烏克蘭的領土入侵也成了正當要求,美國主動退出不再支持烏克蘭導致北約瓦解,單靠歐洲的力量難於承擔長期對抗俄國的戰爭壓力,最後不得不放棄或有條件支持烏克蘭,隨著北約的解體抗衡俄國的軍事力量將不復存在。最初俄國爲了防止“北約東擴”發動侵略烏克蘭的戰爭,最後促成“俄國西進”,解決烏克蘭問題後俄國下一步必然走入侵波蘭,進而向整體東歐擴張的歷史老路。簡而言之只要烏克蘭失敗就是普京的勝利,俄羅斯民族的偉大復興終於成功了。


在特朗普瓦解北約後俄國聯合西方所謂的流氓國家,全世界的新秩序將會被重新打造,從而建立人類命運的新共同體,所謂民主政體將在軍事聯盟的崩潰下徹底瓦解,如此人類將進入二戰後的百年未有之大變局。美國特朗普是極權國家依靠的最終決定性力量,潛伏在西方國家尚未引爆的真正核彈,在未來的4年中他將擔負起結束北約的歷史使命,幫助俄羅斯重建前蘇聯帝國的輝煌,並且聯同其他盟友重新打造國際秩序,而特朗普將成爲人類命運共同體的核心締造者,成爲世界人民的領袖而終生執政。

Kim Jong-un is pleased to see heavy casualties which can increase troops for make more money

 


Ukraine captured two North Korean soldiers who revealed that the North Korean army has suffered heavy casualties, with an estimated minimum of over 3,000 soldiers lost since they officially deployed in November 2024. The casualty rate of North Korean soldiers is comparable to that of the Russian army. North Korea dispatched its Storm Special Forces, reportedly the country's most elite unit. However, these special forces are skilled in special operations, when deployed as regular soldiers on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, their combat effectiveness is not particularly impressive. 


Moreover, they are unfamiliar with the battlefield, weapons, tactics, and environment. The North Korean army has not participated in large-scale warfare for over 70 years, and due to food shortages, they cannot even conduct normal duties, training, or exercises. The Storm Special Forces are the only unit in North Korea that can barely get enough to eat. On the battlefield, apart from their loyalty to their leader and concerns for their family's safety, North Korean soldiers do not exhibit any exceptional combat skills. Although they show a higher combat will than the Russian army during group charges, in modern warfare, this only leads to increased casualties.


Furthermore, the Russian army's current trench warfare is not particularly effective. It relies on the numerical advantage of equipment and soldiers to suppress Ukraine and sustain the war. At the end of 2024, it was reported that Kim Jong-un of North Korea was preparing to send more troops to Ukraine. The initial deployment of over 10,000 troops struggled to cope with the complex battlefield environment. More importantly, NATO did not react too strongly, and with Trump's election and his proposed pro-Russian ceasefire conditions, North Korea's military support for Russia was practical and effective. 


North Korea fully supports Russia with military supplies, providing 7 million artillery shells and missiles, giving the Russian army a partial advantage on the battlefield. In contrast, NATO only provided 500,000 artillery shells to Ukraine by mid-last year, leading to a passive situation for the Ukrainian army due to ammunition shortages. Subsequent improvements were merely piecemeal from other countries.


In terms of ammunition, there has been little progress in personnel support. Although France, the UK, Poland, and the Baltic states have expressed a willingness to send troops and even made some preparations, there has been no concrete progress. In contrast, North Korea's attitude towards sending troops is clear, firm, and highly efficient. Initially, they deployed a division of over 10,000 soldiers, gradually expanding to around 100,000. If the number of troops increases to 500,000, it will undoubtedly change the battlefield situation. Meanwhile, Iran is providing weapons and equipment to Russia, and China has provided 600 billion in funds through energy trade to sustain the war. 


Terrorist countries and organizations in the Middle East have opened a second front, although currently passive, diverting some of Europe and America's attention. The most important factor is Trump. Russia secretly supported Trump's rise to power, and after the U.S. presidential transition, the first task of Russia's proxy is to help Putin escape the current military predicament through ceasefire, forcing Ukraine to abandon joining NATO and accept territorial losses.


By withdrawing the U.S., NATO will disintegrate. Under the guise of concentrating forces to counter China, Russia will become a secondary issue and no longer the focus. Putin will continue to govern and avoid Russia's disintegration. Objectively, the overall situation is unfavorable for Ukraine. If North Korea significantly increases its troop deployment and weapon supply, Ukraine will face immense military pressure. 


North Korean soldiers' lives are almost negligible unless the U.S. and South Korea attack North Korea. Otherwise, half of North Korea's 2 million regular troops can theoretically be deployed on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield. North Korea also has a mature troop mobilization system, allowing continuous troop increases and equipment expansion, with covert support from China at all levels. Currently, the total Russian troop strength on the front lines in Ukraine is around 500,000. If this number increases by 1-2 times, the Ukrainian army, already at a manpower disadvantage, will struggle even more and may face partial defeats.


Expecting NATO to send troops in the short to medium term without considering the U.S. factor is unrealistic. The entire EU is happy to see Russia being consumed but does not want to fully participate in the war. Although Poland is willing to send troops directly, to maintain NATO's overall interests and avoid being dragged into the war, Europe will limit its participation. In contrast, for North Korea, sending troops means direct participation in the war. Although they have suffered heavy casualties, they can significantly increase troop numbers in the future. In fact, North Korea is the biggest beneficiary of the Russia-Ukraine war, consuming stockpiled ammunition, breaking years of UN sanctions, and obtaining large amounts of food, energy, funds, and military technology. 


They have trained their troops and cultivated military backbones, objectively improving their international status, increasing their international discourse power, and breaking some international restrictions. The ongoing war is highly beneficial to North Korea in all aspects. For the U.S., Trump's negative impact is even more apparent. In the next four years, he will play the role of Ukraine's terminator. In short, for the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia has a chance to win in the next four years, and Ukraine is likely to lose. 


Although Trump has gained four years, he will be assassinated again during his term due to touching fundamental interests. For the sake of the Ukrainian people, global arms dealers, eliminating the greatest threat to European peace, preventing NATO's disintegration, solving the Putin and Russia problem, maintaining the post-WWII peace system, eradicating major authoritarian forces, preserving the global free trade system, making the U.S. stronger, and avoiding another full-scale world war after the Cold War, Trump's assassination should happen as soon as possible.

 

Trump swallows American version of Ukraine - Canada, so America is finally great again

 


Trump actually wants to annex Canada to become the 51st state of the United States. In recent years, he has been making similar comments to his backer, Vladimir Putin, who secretly supported him in the election. Putin said: "Give him 20 years, and he will give you a strong Russia." To fulfill his election promises, he started a war to annex Ukraine, aiming to achieve the great renaissance of Russia. Now, it is Trump's turn to annex Canada to make the United States strong again and realize the great renaissance of the “American nation.” The U.S. and Canada's political systems, ideologies, languages, cultures, economies, and diplomatic cooperation are similar. They belong to the same economic and trade zone. Historically, there have been attempts to unite through war, but they did not succeed. The U.S. White House was even burned by Canada. Now, Trump is threatening to propose a merger.


The Philippines, which was a U.S. colony at the time, took the initiative to join the United States as the 51st state, but it was rejected due to economic reasons. Canada, as a developed Western country, does not have economic reasons for joining the United States. The purpose of joining would be to become a new version of the United States as a colony. Historically, the United States was a colony that gained independence from Britain, while Canada remained loyal to Britain and France, leading to the independence and development of both countries. 


The merger does not seem to bring any benefits to Canada based on the current close cooperation between the two countries at all levels. It would only allow the United States to expand its territory and become the largest country in terms of area, surpassing the former Soviet Union. This would fulfill Trump's promise of making the United States great again, even though the country has never weakened since World War II. Trump's great renaissance is similar to Putin's. Russia and Ukraine share the same ethnicity, language, culture, history, and religion, and were originally one country divided into two, similar to the United States and Canada. In this way, Trump is the Putin of the United States, and Putin is the Trump of Russia.


Generally speaking, Americans have never felt that Canadians are not Americans, but Canadians have always felt that they are Canadians and not Americans. Similarly, Russians think that Ukraine is Russian, while Ukrainians think that they are Ukrainian and not Russian at all. Although it is difficult to distinguish between the two, they are different countries after all. Trump said that he would not use military means to merge the United States and Canada but did not rule out the use of force against Greenland. Russia's provocation of Ukraine began with a border conflict, eventually leading to the Russian-Ukrainian war. 


The world's second-largest military power has been dragged into the quagmire of war and is struggling to extricate itself. If there were a U.S.-Canada war, the world's largest military power, at least during Trump's four-year term, would struggle to digest Canada, which has a land area of more than 10 million square kilometers. Ukraine is the European grain silo, ranked second in area in Europe, and rich in natural resources, with developed heavy industry and agriculture. The annexation of Ukraine is far more favorable to Russia than Chechnya, Georgia, or South Ossetia, and can demonstrate the great renaissance of the Russian nation. The above conditions are exactly the same as those of Canada.


The purpose of creating the United Nations system after World War II was not to prevent wars but to limit the risk of wars developing into world wars due to territorial encroachment. NATO was established to prevent the territorial expansion of the former Soviet Union. What Trump is doing now is forcing the dissolution of NATO and breaking the post-WWII restrictions on world war. The ultimate goal of Russia-Ukraine truce is to force Ukraine to accept the reality of its loss of territory and promise never to join NATO. This would break the post-World War II agreement that countries cannot invade and take over the territories of other countries at will. 


The purpose of the United States not continuing to participate in the European war against Russia is to force the dissolution of NATO. The so-called independent support of Europe for Ukraine against Russia and Putin is to disintegrate post-WWII NATO, which united Europe and the United States to fight against the Soviet Union. Putin's support for Trump's presidential campaign was conditional. Specifically, it was to help Russia break the diplomatic isolation imposed by Europe and the United States; secondly, it was to acquiesce to Russia's external expansion and territorial claims; and finally, it was for the United States to take the initiative to withdraw and force the dissolution of NATO.


Trump's rush to force Russia and Ukraine to stop the war is not for the sake of peace, but because a long-term war would inevitably lead to Russia's defeat. Trump wants to help Putin avoid military failure and maintain personal rule. On this basis, he aims to maintain Russia's permanent security and unrestricted external expansion, making NATO immediately dysfunctional or completely disbanded. This is Trump's ultimate mission in the next four years, as accepted by Putin. Otherwise, Putin will publicly reveal evidence of "Russiagate," causing Trump and even his family to be spurned. 


The U.S.-Canada merger, although just like a joke, becomes more plausible when Putin, with Trump's support, solves the Ukraine crisis. Even if it is to maintain the status quo and recognize the results of the referendum on the independence of the four states of Ukraine, Russia is the biggest beneficiary, forcing Ukraine to accept the success of the invasion. This is the so-called great renaissance of the Russian nation. Putin will then turn around and support Trump, realizing the great renaissance of the United States in Canada. Putin can remain in power for the rest of his life, and Trump can do the same. If not, both hand over their power and withdraw from the core of power, it will leave them with no chance of survival.

 

普京搶烏克蘭特朗普吞加拿大美利堅民族偉大復興實現了

 


特朗普居然想吞併加拿大成爲美國第51個州,近年發出同樣言論的就是他的背後大金主普京,當年暗中支持了他當選。普京說:給他20年,還給你一個強大的俄羅斯,最後爲實現競選承諾發動戰爭吞併烏克蘭,目的是實現俄羅斯的偉大復興。現在輪到特朗普爲了使美國重新強大,實現美利堅民族的偉大復興要吞併加拿大。美加政治制度,意識形態,語言文化,經濟貿易,外交合作等各方面類同,而且根本就同屬一個經貿區,歷史上也曾經因嘗試統一發生過戰爭,但最後結局並沒有成功,甚至美國白宮還被加拿大焚燒,現在居然受到特朗普的威脅提出合併。

 

當年作爲美國殖民地的菲律賓主動要求加入美國成爲第51個州,但最後因爲經濟原因作罷,加拿大作爲西方發達國家,不存在經濟方面的原因,但加入美國的目的難道是想成爲美國新版殖民地。何況歷史上美國作爲殖民地從英國獨立,加拿大繼續效忠英國和法國,最後導致了兩國各自獨立和發展。所謂合併也看不出在目前兩國各層次緊密合作的基礎上能夠給加拿大帶來任何好處,無非就是使得美國的領土面積得以擴張,成爲超越前蘇聯面積最大的國家,如此就能實現特朗普所謂美國再次強大的承諾,雖然二戰後美國從來就沒有衰弱過,何來再次強大。特朗普的偉大復興和普京如出一轍,俄羅斯和烏克蘭也是同族同宗,語言文化歷史宗教等各方面大同小異,而且原本就是一個國家分裂而成,這與美國和加拿大沒有分別。如此説來特朗普就是美國的普京,普京就是俄羅斯的特朗普。

 

從感情上說美國人雖然從來沒覺得加拿大人不是美國人,但加拿大人一直覺得自己就是加拿大人不是美國人。如同俄羅斯人覺得烏克蘭就是俄囯人,而烏克蘭覺得自己是烏克蘭人,根本就不是俄羅斯人,雖然兩者你中有我,我中有你,難以區分但畢竟是不同國家。特朗普稱美加合併不會採取軍事手段,但不排除對格林蘭使用武力。俄羅斯對烏克蘭開始的挑釁也是邊境衝突,最終俄烏戰爭打到現在作爲世界第二軍事強權的俄羅斯,被拖入戰爭泥潭難以自拔,如果美加發生戰爭情形又會如何,世界第一軍事強權的美國,至少在特朗普的4年任期內,是否有能力消化掉國土面積超過1千萬平方公里的加拿大。對美國有利可以吞併加拿大,對美國無利則不要菲律賓,如此是否對美國有利的國家都可以吞併,此與俄羅斯普京的想法不謀而合,烏克蘭是歐洲糧倉歐洲面積排名第二的國家,而且天然資源豐富重工業農業發達,吞併烏克蘭對俄國遠比車臣,格魯吉亞,南奧塞梯有利,並且可以彰顯俄羅斯民族的偉大復興。以上條件完全與加拿大相同。

 

二戰後創建聯合國體系的目的不是爲了防止戰爭,而是可以限制戰爭使之在可控的範圍內,並且最大程度地減低侵吞領土下導致的戰爭發展成爲世界大戰。北約成立的目的就是爲了防止前蘇聯的領土擴張,而現在特朗普的所作所爲就是要迫使北約解散,打破二戰後對於世界大戰的限制。他現在所謂的俄烏停戰的最終目的就是迫使烏克蘭接受領土喪失的現實,並且保證永不加入北約,並且以此打破二戰後各國間接達成的不能隨意入侵奪取他囯侵佔領土的協定。美國不繼續參與歐洲對抗俄羅斯的戰爭的目的就是迫使解散北約,所謂歐洲獨立支持烏克蘭對抗俄囯普京,就是讓二戰後的歐美一體對抗蘇聯的北約解體。而這就是普京當年支持特朗普競選總統成功的條件,具體來説一是幫助俄國打破當年被歐美封鎖的外交孤立;其次是默許俄羅斯的對外擴張和領土要求;最後就是美國主動撤出迫使北約解散。

 

特朗普上臺後急於迫使俄烏停戰的目的不是爲了和平,而是長期戰爭俄羅斯被消耗下必敗無疑,特朗普要幫助普京擺脫軍事上的失敗維護個人統治。並在此基礎上保持俄羅斯的永久安全和對外擴張不受限制,如此必須使北約立刻喪失功能或者徹底解散,這就是未來4年特朗普在普京手上接受的最終使命,否則普京會將所謂“通俄門”的證據公開,如此特朗普乃至其家族將被唾棄而死無葬身之地。所謂美加合併雖然表面上只是一句笑談,但當普京在特朗普支持下渡過危機徹底解決烏克蘭問題後,哪怕就是維持現狀實際承認烏克蘭四州公投結果而獨立,俄羅斯也是最大的受益者等於迫使烏克蘭承認被侵略成功的事實,普京也就是實現了所謂俄羅斯民族的偉大復興。之後普京會反過來再次支持特朗普,實現美利堅的偉大復興以其人之道還之於加拿大,將烏克蘭的悲劇在加拿大重演。

 

要知道普京是可以終身執政的,美國也可以吞併加拿大,難道特朗普不能終身執政。要知道正如美國的競爭對手一樣,最高層乃至其周邊勢力包括其家族,多年來倒行逆施下導致各方反對勢力力量積蓄,一旦交出權力退出權力核心,連一分鐘的生存機會都不會得到。

金正恩樂於見到朝鮮士兵傷亡慘重可以繼續增兵10萬賺大錢


烏克蘭俘虜2位北韓士兵,透露朝鮮軍隊傷亡慘重,估計目前最少超過3千人,按照202411月正式出兵計算,朝鮮士兵的傷亡率與俄軍相差無幾。朝鮮派出的是風暴特種部隊,據説是該國戰鬥力最強的部隊,但特種兵擅長特種作戰,偷襲突擊,戰場滲透,斬首行動,目標清除等,現在放到俄烏戰場作爲普通士兵進行戰場突擊,實在也看不出有多強大的戰鬥力,況且還是在不熟悉的戰場,面對陌生的武器,戰術和環境,並且朝鮮軍隊70多年沒有參與大規模戰爭,糧食短缺下連正常勤務,訓練和演習都進行不了,風暴部隊已是朝鮮勉強能夠吃得飽的唯一部隊,但真放到戰場上除了對領袖的忠誠和對家人安全的顧慮外,看不出朝鮮士兵在作戰中有何過人之處。雖然發起集團式衝鋒時能夠顯示出其遠高於俄軍的作戰意志,但在現代戰爭環境下也無非是徒添傷亡而已。

 

況且俄羅斯軍隊現在進行的陣地消耗戰,根本談不上特別有效的戰術,無非是用軍備和士兵的數量優勢,壓制烏克蘭以維持戰爭的持續。2024年底已經傳出朝鮮金正恩準備向烏克蘭增兵,因爲從先期派出的1萬多兵力看,難於應付目前複雜的戰場環境,更重要的是北約對此沒有給出太過激烈的反應,並且配合特朗普當選後提出的有利俄羅斯的所謂停戰條件,朝鮮對於俄羅斯的軍事支援實際而有效。朝鮮在軍備上全力支持俄羅斯,提供的7百萬發炮彈和導彈,使得俄軍能夠在戰場上能夠取得部份優勢,相比北約直到去年中也只向烏克蘭提供了50萬發炮彈,並且出現烏軍彈藥不足下陷入被動的局面,後續雖然稍有改善也無非是從其他國家東拼西湊而已。

 

彈藥方面尚且如此人員支持方面更是毫無進展,雖然法國,英國,波蘭,波羅的海各國都有出兵的願望,而且甚至做好了部分出兵的準備,但具體到落實上則是毫無進展。相反朝鮮出兵態度明確立場堅決效率極高,初期出動1個師1多人,然後逐步擴大規模到10萬人左右,如果軍隊數量能夠增加到50萬人,毫無疑問將改變戰場態勢。與此同時伊朗也向俄羅斯提供武器裝備,中國則通過能源貿易的方式,前後向俄羅斯提供了6千億的資金用以維持戰爭,中東地區的恐怖國家和組織則展開第二戰場配合,雖然目前處於被動但也分散了歐美的部份精力。最重要的還有特朗普的因素,俄羅斯當年暗中資助了特朗普的上臺,因此美國總統換屆後俄羅斯代理人首先要做的就是通過所謂停戰,幫助普京擺脫目前軍事上的困境,迫使烏克蘭放棄加入北約和接受喪失領土。

 

然後通過美國的退出使得北約瓦解,再以集中力量打擊中國的名義,使得俄國成爲次要矛盾不再成爲焦點,普京得以繼續執政並且逃脫俄羅斯被解體的命運。從目前的客觀情勢看整體上對烏克蘭不利,朝鮮如果大規模增兵並且加大武器供應力度,對於烏克蘭在軍事上壓力很大,至於朝鮮士兵的生命幾乎可以忽略不計,除非美韓對朝鮮本土發動攻擊,否則朝鮮正規軍2百萬中的一半,理論上都可以佈置在俄烏戰場,而且朝鮮還有成熟的兵力動員體制,可以不斷增加兵力擴充軍備,並且得到中國各個層面的暗中幫助。目前在烏克蘭戰場最前綫的俄軍縂兵力在50萬左右,如果數量再增加1-2倍,烏軍本就處於兵力劣勢,更加難於應付甚至會出現部分潰敗。

 

指望北約出兵在中短期內不考慮美國的因素也是不現實的,整個歐盟樂於見到俄羅斯被消耗但本身不欲全面參與戰爭,雖然波蘭有意願直接出兵但是爲了維護北約的整體利益,避免被全面拖入戰爭泥潭,歐洲也會限制其參戰。相反對於朝鮮來講,出兵等於直接參戰,現在雖然傷亡慘重但未來可以大幅增兵,事實上俄烏朝鮮是最大的受益者,消耗掉了庫存彈藥,打破了聯合國的多年制裁,得到了大量的糧食,能源,資金和軍事技術。鍛煉了軍隊培養了軍事骨幹,客觀上提高了國際地位,增加了國際話語權突破了部份國際限制,戰爭持續下去對朝鮮各方面來講都非常有利。對於美國特朗普的負面因素更加顯而易見,他未來4年扮演的是烏克蘭終結者的角色。簡而言之對於俄烏戰爭而言,俄羅斯未來4年有機會贏,烏克蘭很可能會輸。特朗普雖然得到了4年時間,但在觸動各方根本利益下,特朗普會在任期內被再次暗殺。爲了烏克蘭人民,爲了全世界的軍火商,爲了消除歐洲和平的最大威脅,爲了避免北約解體,爲了徹底解決普京和俄國問題,爲了維持二戰後的和平體系,爲了鏟除世界主要極權勢力,爲了維護世界自由貿易體系,爲了使得美國更加強大,爲了避免冷戰後世界大戰的再次全面爆發,特朗普的再次被暗殺越快越好。