天使萌 、 天使もえ、 Moe Amatsuka

 

要麼特朗普再被暗殺俄烏戰爭持續否則澤連斯基被干掉戰爭結束

 

澤連斯基為新到達的F-16舉行了歡迎儀式，新到的戰鬥機連塗裝都沒有換，貼上標籤就算烏克蘭的新戰機，估計到年底可以有20架，總數目前已經超過1百架，還不包括後續歐洲各國捐贈的其他型號飛機。其實對烏克蘭來講有多少F-16都是相對的，只要有歐美的支援要多少戰機都可以滿足，歐洲生產的各型號戰鬥機不算，就是美國退役和封存的戰鬥機都有上千架，至於飛行員之前西方已經開宗明義，可以通過招募志願飛行員解決。所以，現在的幾架F-16無非就是幌子，宣佈正式參戰就是觀察俄羅斯的後續反應。如果一如既往只是口頭核武威脅，那麼後續戰鬥機的增速就會加快。如果俄羅斯反應過激則相反，所以對於烏克蘭未來取得空中優勢毫無疑問，至於時間則完全由歐美掌控。

 

對於烏克蘭來講除了特朗普這個不穩定因素外，其他各方面對戰爭持續下去都不構成問題。資金和彈藥不斷獲得補充，更先進的針對性武器也不斷流入，目前雙方戰局進入僵持，在戰場上都沒有能力取得更大進展。俄烏戰爭發展到現在各方最重視的還是美國大選最終結果，這將對戰爭走勢產生決定性的影響，但是戰爭持續下去長期化是肯定的，即便美國退出歐洲獨立應對，也有能力將戰爭繼續下去。俄羅斯的戰爭能源被不斷消耗，武器裝備損耗已接近臨界點，現在無非是利用火力和兵力的相對優勢，通過陣地戰與烏克蘭軍隊對峙。對於烏克蘭有利的局面是擁有歐美中遠端攻擊武器下配合無人機，可以對俄羅斯腹地的軍事設施，能源生產，兵工廠，軍用倉庫，交通樞紐，指揮中心等重要目標進行遠端打擊，並且利用裝備優勢重點攻擊俄軍防空系統和空軍各型號飛機，持續消弱俄羅斯空天軍的裝備和戰鬥力，即便在目前受到歐美限制下，仍已取得了良好戰果。

 

之前預計的雙方夏季攻勢都沒有展開，俄軍是受到哈爾科夫攻堅受挫的影響，烏克蘭則是將目光始終放在克裡米亞。現在黑海艦隊已經逃離，克裡米亞附近的防空系統被反復打擊，切斷克赤大橋和克裡米亞的陸路交通，在技術上完全沒有問題，F-16戰鬥機也已經到位。現在烏軍正在積蓄力量進一步消耗敵軍，然後在關鍵時間發動對克裡米亞的攻擊。只要能夠收復克裡米亞在政治上就意味著取得勝利，所謂十多年的俄烏邊境衝突導致最後爆發戰爭，最初的源點就是克裡米亞，俄國入侵烏克蘭東部3州的真正目的，就是要在陸路上與克裡米亞連成一片，如此就控制面向歐洲的出海口。這也是俄羅斯當年與土耳其反復多年爭奪克裡米亞的原因，所謂北約東擴無非就是藉口而已。只要控制了克裡米亞連接東部數州，俄羅斯不但可以確保克裡米亞的安全，而且完全可以隨時吞併烏克蘭和白俄羅斯，下一步則是歷史上被滅國多次的波蘭。

 

普京現在計畫受阻俄烏戰爭打成消耗戰，所謂“兵者，貴勝不貴久”，俄羅斯戰爭資源被過度消耗下，在目前本國軍工生產體系下根本不可能彌補，依靠外國盟友彈藥和裝備雖能解一時之急，但主要還是看俄軍在戰場上是否能取得決定性的優勢，但目前從戰局來看俄羅斯最多就是取得些零星的戰術優勢而已。而且最重要的是看俄羅斯後續的戰爭走勢，從目前來講沒有一個明確的路向，完全就是邊打邊看的狀態。普京對扭轉目前僵持的局面也毫無辦法，雙方都認為長期戰爭消耗下去不可避免，只要各方能維持住局面已經是可以接受的結果。最後改變戰爭走勢還是要看美國的選舉結果，如特朗普上臺為了幫助俄羅斯擺脫被動，他必定會採取極端手段以結束戰爭的名義對烏克蘭進行打壓，如果澤連斯基不肯就範，甚至會成為重點被針對的對象，而俄羅斯則會成為最大受益者，不但普京可以維持永久執政，從最近俄羅斯開出的停戰籌碼看，只要能夠滿足所謂克裡米亞共治的條件，雙方就可以展開後續談判。

 

特朗普對烏克蘭施加壓力的手段很多，從長遠看俄烏戰爭持續消耗下去俄羅斯必敗無疑，但特朗普如果當選則最終的失敗者必定是烏克蘭和歐洲。現在面對選舉的逐漸臨近，無論是烏克蘭，歐洲，美國的競爭對手，民主黨，全球各派反特朗普勢力等等，恐怕通過狙擊步槍瞄準特朗普的決不止一支。在美國真要下決心暗殺總統沒有不成功的道理，最後看的無非是各方勢力暗中的博弈和平衡。特朗普當選並不可怕，相反只要他再次上臺，必定導致他絕不會再有4年的時間。

Trump said recent U.S. stock market crash was caused by old & ugly woman Harris

 

Trump attacked Kamala Devi Harris, claiming that the recent plunge in the U.S. stock market is caused by her, objectively speaking, Trump can attack her content is not much, before the repeated targeting of Biden's old age and senility Alzheimer's, simply cannot cope with the next term of office, but now the situation is completely reversed, Trump has lost the age advantage, he is already 78 years of age , the so-called age advantage of a few years has instead become a disadvantage. In addition, the recent shooting is just the beginning, the future development is expected to shoot at him will not be ordinary small-caliber rifles, but a professional sniper gun. 

 

Kamala Devi Harris is a black woman, a descendant of immigrants, an ethnic minority, a middle-aged woman, divorced, with little experience in politics and almost no track record, but she has the votes of black, ethnic minority and immigrant families, as well as the support of the Democratic Party's traditional forces. The U.S. presidential election has always been based on publicity rather than political performance, and how many people favored Trump when he ran against Hillary, and the U.S. election was also manipulated by overseas secret power. Now that the Democrats and Republicans are evenly matched, it's all about the votes in the swing states, and she has raised even more money for her campaign than Trump. 

 

Biden, on the other hand, has withdrawn from the race in a dignified manner, which is a plus for the Democrats in terms of voters. Attacking his opponent for having no political record and no experience, how much Trump had before the first election. After Trump took office, he initiated a trade war to break the balance of international trade maintained since the development of globalization, and the so-called unilateralism, "America is strong again" is just a stupid slogan, the U.S. has never weakened after World War II, and the U.S. is the original promoter and developer of globalization. The promise to move the manufacturing industry back to the United States is unrealistic, impossible and unachievable.

 

Although the economy of the United States has developed quite well during his term of office, the consequence of initiating the trade war has led to the epidemic war, which has dealt a heavy blow to the economy of the whole world, and eventually led to the failure of Trump's re-election. If he is re-elected with his strong intervention, the two-year war between Russia and Ukraine, which began in 2004 with a border conflict between the two countries, will be brought to an end, and the NATO system that was built during the Cold War will indirectly collapse. Pointing the finger at the so-called biggest competitor of the U.S. would provoke a strong reaction from the other side, and the world would again face disaster in the next epidemic. It's not easy to defeat a competitor in a 4-year term. 

 

At the same time, Putin's government actually succeeded in its plot after Russia started the war, and the competitor and Russia are the biggest allies, and the suppression of the U.S. will inevitably lead to a full-scale retaliation, and so the Middle East, the South China Sea, Middle Asia, the Taiwan Straits, Ukraine, the Korean Peninsula, Central and South America, and so on, and all the centralized governments and terrorists are uniting to launch a full-scale unlimit war on the United States. To launch a full-scale unlimited war, the whole world will be on fire from new epidemics to tactical nuclear weapons, from terrorist attacks to full-scale war invasions, from destroying the city's power system to hacking attacks on satellite networks, from a new round of epidemic viruses to attacks on the world's financial system, and so on, the full-scale war of unlimited attacks on all levels will make the U.S. exhausted and difficult to cope with.

 

As the NATO military system, which had been reactivated in the Russian-Ukrainian war, collapsed again due to Trump's intervention, a crisis of trust arose between the U.S., Europe and other Indo-Pacific countries, and the entire Western society was thrown into chaos by mutual suspicion. As a result, the global military conflict will no longer be limited by localized wars, and weapons of mass destruction, including strategic nuclear weapons, will be the first to be used by dictatorship countries, and a global nuclear war will be inevitable with mutual retaliation, and it is Trump's extreme policies that will trigger the nuclear weapons switch. After the end of World War II, mankind experienced decades of Cold War. With the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, globalization led to the development of the world's economy, and the world as a whole enjoyed several decades of peace, although regional wars continued to break out.

 

However, as a madman in the United States gained power with the secret support of Russia, he kept destroying the peace structure formed through globalization since the Cold War and engaged in extreme unilateralism in the name of the so-called "America is strong again" by destroying the world trade order. Although it is necessary to launch a trade war to suppress the world's largest dictatorship government, the world can hardly afford to pay a heavy price for it. Moreover, Russia, which Trump supports in waging war and threatening world peace by destroying the security order in Europe, is not sanctioned as a similar dictatorship, and is helping Putin to stay in power for the rest of his life at the expense of Ukraine losing its territory. This will not make the United States greater, but will result in the exact opposite.

Trump will not be able to change the world order if he takes power again for only 4 years. He will utilize the power of the US state to take extreme measures, which will inevitably lead to failure, and the hegemony of the US as the defender of the world order built up after the World War II will be lost, and the US will become a second-rate country in the world, which will be consumed repeatedly in the various kinds of unlimited wars in the world. Human beings need long-term peace, especially after the end of the Cold War, which is not easy to come by. The relatively stable world economic development and prosperity in the past few decades should be sustained, and the world needs time to make adjustments, and it is the general trend to maintain stability. 

 

Any radical policy after Trump's reelection is bound to trigger a fatal counterattack, and the next time he is shot at in a public speech or infected with the virus again. Without Russia's support, Trump's campaign is not a easy thing this time, and even if he is re-elected, it's not clear if he will survive in his four-year term, either.

 

宇佐美舞 宇佐美まい Mai Usami

 

特朗普稱最近的美國股災是賀錦麗老女人長得難看造成的

 

賀錦麗參選後特朗普對她進行攻擊，聲稱最近美國股市的大跌是她造成的，客觀上說特朗普可以攻擊她的內容不多，之前反復針對拜登年老體衰老年癡呆，根本應付不了下一任期，但現在形勢徹底逆轉，特朗普喪失了所謂的年齡優勢，面對新對手他已經78歲高齡年近八旬，之前所謂的幾年年齡優勢反而成為劣勢。況且近日的槍擊只是開始，以後發展下去估計朝他開槍的不會是普通小口徑步槍，而是專業的狙擊槍了。

 

賀錦麗是黑人婦女，移民後代，少數民族族裔，中年女性，離婚，執政經驗少，政績幾乎沒有，但卻擁有黑人，少數族裔和移民家庭的選票，還有民主黨傳統勢力的支持。美國總統選舉歷來看宣傳不看政績，特朗普和希拉蕊競選又有多少人看好他，況且美國選舉還有來自海外勢力的操控。現在民主黨和共和黨勢均力敵，最後要看搖擺州的選票，賀錦麗所募得的競選經費甚至比特朗普更多。拜登則是高風亮節主動退出了選舉，這對選民來說不失為民主黨加分。攻擊對方無政績無經驗，當年特朗普又又多少。特朗普上臺後發動貿易戰打破了全球化發展至今保持的國際貿易平衡，所謂的單邊主義“美國再次強大”不過是個愚蠢的口號而已，美國二戰後從來沒有衰弱過，全球化的推動和發展美國本來就是始作俑者，承諾將製造業重新移回美國，不切實際，不可能也辦不到。

 

雖然在任內美國經濟發展不錯，但發動貿易戰的後果導致了疫情戰，全世界經濟受到重大打擊，最後也導致了特朗普的連任失敗。如果他再次當選俄羅斯普京將在他的強力干預下得以倖免，從2004年開始的俄烏邊境衝突引發的2年多的俄烏戰爭將會被終止，冷戰年代打造的北約體系會間接崩潰。將矛頭指向所謂美國最大競爭對手會激發對方的強烈反彈，如此下一次的疫情引爆全世界將再次面臨災難。想在4年任期內徹底打敗競爭對手談何容易，于此同時俄羅斯發動戰爭後普京政府居然陰謀得逞，競爭對手和俄羅斯又是最大的同盟者，針對美國的打壓必然會引發全面報復，如此中東，南海，中亞，台海，烏克蘭，朝鮮半島，中南美洲等等，國際上所有集權政府和恐怖份子聯合起來，向美國發動全面超限戰，全世界戰火遍地從新疫情到戰術核武器，從恐怖襲擊到全面戰爭入侵，從破壞城市的電力系統到衛星網路的駭客攻擊，從新一輪疫情病毒到對世界金融體系的攻擊等等，所謂超限戰下發動的各個層面的無限制攻擊，將使得美國疲于應付難以招架。

 

隨著在俄烏戰爭已經重新被啟動的北約軍事體系，因為特朗普的干預而再次崩潰，美國和歐洲及其他印太國家產生信任危機，互相猜忌下整體西方社會陷入混亂。從而引發的全球軍事衝突將不再受制於局部戰爭，包括戰略核武器在內的大殺傷武器，將被集權國家所首先使用，如此互相報復下的全球核戰將無可避免，觸碰核武電鈕的就是特朗普再次當選下的極端政策。人類在二戰結束後經歷了幾十年的冷戰，隨著蘇聯解體冷戰結束後因全球化促使世界經濟發展，雖然地區戰爭仍然不斷爆發，但整體上全世界享受了來之不易的幾十年和平。

然而，隨著美國一個瘋子在俄羅斯的暗中支持下取得政權，他不斷破壞冷戰以來通過全球化形成的和平架構，以所謂美國再次強大為名，破壞世界貿易秩序搞極端單邊主義。雖然發動貿易戰打壓世界最大集權政體很有必要，但對此付出的代價慘重全世界難以承擔。況且特朗普所支持的俄羅斯發動戰爭，破壞歐洲安全秩序威脅世界和平，作為同樣的獨裁國家居然不受制裁，以所謂結束戰爭的名義得以保存，以烏克蘭失去國土作為代價幫助普京終身執政，如此美國作為俄羅斯的幫兇，將在國際上失去信用和認受性，如此不是將美國變得更偉大，而是結果完全相反。

 

特朗普如再次上臺4年時間根本改變不了世界秩序，他利用美國國家力量採取極端措施最後得到的必然是失敗，美國在二戰後建立起來的世界秩序維護者的霸權地位將會喪失，成為世界上的二流國家，並在世界範圍的各類超限戰中被反復消耗。人類需要長期和平，特別是冷戰結束後的和平來之不易，幾十年相對穩定的世界經濟發展和繁榮應該持續，世界需要時間進行調節，保持穩定是大勢所趨。特朗普連任後任何的過激政策必然引發致命反擊，下一次公開演講被槍擊或是再次感染病毒，都將不會是抬頭躲過和服藥康復那麼簡單。失去了俄羅斯的支持這次特朗普的競選並非穩操勝券，即便再次當選是否能夠順利渡過4年任期更是未知之數。

三上悠亜

 

車路士新賽季不買實力前鋒經驗后衛賣隊長是何神操作

 

車路士在暑期仍然是不斷堆積年輕球員，雖然購買一些有潛質的小將無可厚非，而且本身來講費用也不算高，但是球隊最需要補強的前鋒和後衛，卻幾乎沒有任何操作。與此同時還打算將隊長卡拉格出售給馬競，新老闆已經將之前的整支歐冠陣容都賣光了，也不在乎多出售一名球隊主力，畢竟前朝自家的青訓球員出售後是純利潤。如果不是占士和薛維爾受傷，此二人也會被球會賣掉，查洛巴因為長期受傷狀態不佳，現在球會也在逼迫他離隊。反正前朝遺老從無論是誰都會被清理掉，理由無非是徹底剷除球隊多年來的俄國血統，英國是除美國外受白左政治正確影響最嚴重的國家。

 

從俄烏戰爭開打起車路士就面臨被清算的命運，雖然老闆阿巴莫域治對藍軍貢獻很大，而且他本身算是一半烏克蘭猶太人血統，但鑒於他與普京的密切關係，所以在戰爭爆發前幾年就被英國政府刻意打壓，最後還是被剝奪了球會的控制權。現在的清水財團也是英國政府精心挑選的所謂美國財團，但背後卻是來自中東的資本。美國財團對於球會至少是政治上沒問題，當然歷來英超球隊在被美資收購後，必定會出現幾年的管理混亂。所以，現在車仔經歷的種種不可思議的古怪操作也算正常，美國人來了不懂足球自然會瞎搞一番，最後吃了虧才會住手，再重新走回正確的軌道，但這一步需要多少時間難以預料。

 

如果說藍軍亂買球員導致球隊成績差也不儘然，上賽季購買的眾多年輕球員中有不少已經打出來，顯示出了一定的能力和身價，在經歷了一個賽季的磨練後球隊也開始成型，只要在後衛和前鋒位置進行補強，球隊的整體成績應該有所提高，上賽季末藍軍進入了幾項杯賽，如果不是賽季初的混亂局面，丟棄了太多分數，按照正常發揮進入前4名打歐洲賽不成問題。從比賽內容看對陣強隊車仔並不吃虧，而且多場比賽打得盪氣迴腸，相反對陣中下游球隊則屢屢犯錯，這與教練的水準有很大關係，臨場指揮技戰術配合有所欠缺下，即便有好的球員也不容易發揮出來，特別是在杯賽中體現的更加明顯。

 

上賽季的兩項杯賽，面對利物浦和曼城都是極端疲憊，傷病滿營，狀態低迷，但比賽最後都以失利告終與教練失策的原因很大。然後，媒體卻因球隊在最後的幾場對陣弱旅的發揮穩定，取得了預想的分數而對“肥波”大加讚賞，認為他才是藍軍的最佳教練人選，這簡直就是荒唐至極！西方人雖以理性著稱，但犯起糊塗來也是一發不可收拾。“肥普”雖然比人類歷史上最差足球教練林帕德稍好一些，但在英超又取得過哪些成績，無非就是一個能力一般，靠熬資歷常年混跡于英超的普通教練罷了，熱刺在他領導下沒有任何成就可言，還浪費了一眾球星的才華。現在的新教練即便能力有限，畢竟將一支英冠球隊打上英超，無論如何都比他要強。

 

藍軍現在雖然陣容龐大，但過於年輕缺乏經驗，而且在關鍵位置沒有引進實力球員，前鋒和後衛線能力有限，想要在新賽季爭冠自然是不可能，但爭取些杯賽成績打入歐洲賽還是有希望。最重要的是藍軍的未來發展，現在還看不出球隊的思路，雖然在歐國杯打出了16歲的球星瑪雅，但在整體上大量買入外隊年輕球員，同時將本隊青訓球員出售，等於放棄青訓，外購的球員真正能夠打上主力的也不多。對於藍軍來講畢竟有成績要求，不可能靠青年軍去爭奪冠軍，在球會財政充裕的情況下，要回到英超頂級位置必須購買有實力有經驗有能力的球員，而不是一味外購年輕球員，並且以天價購買能力不符的球員。不過誰知道美國財團還會有何驚人操作，老闆身邊的管理團隊顯然對於英超不瞭解，或者說另有一番新認識。

 

車路士作為一支在全世界有影響力的球隊，所謂倫敦的一張名片，今後的發展很難預料。雖然球會的新人事新作風難以理解，在新一季英超即將開打之際，在新教練的帶領下，球隊究竟能夠走多遠只能先看運氣。

 

 

一花美沙 Misa Ichibana

 

MIYU

 

一花美沙 Misa Ichibana

 

Biden is too old and Trump is too noisy but being loud can help dodge bullets

 

Biden was pressured to drop out and is now being replaced by Kamala Devi Harris, or was it just a few days ago that Biden still insisted he would not drop out, but even now the change in attitude is not surprising. The main reason for this is twofold. Firstly, Biden's poor performance in the live broadcast of the debate with Trump was incoherent, and it should be noted that the debate was entirely controlled and organised by the Democratic Party, and the result was not that there was a superiority or inferiority between the two in terms of the content of the debate, but it was entirely due to Biden's answers that made the outside world think that he was not suitable for re-election due to his health problems, and ultimately triggered the pressure of the Democrats to force him to withdraw.

 

It is important to understand that a poor performance in one debate is not worth mentioning, and several other more appropriate debates can be arranged. But if Biden is physically unable to perform his duties, then a replacement is inevitable, but given that a change of general is too urgent with only a few months to go, it would not be in the interest of the Democratic Party to force him to drop out of the race just because of a single poor debate performance. Now that Biden's withdrawal is a fact, the internal pressure for him to withdraw has always existed from an objective point of view, but it is only now that it has finally exploded, otherwise the Democrats would never have taken the risk at such a sensitive moment.

 

Another important factor is that Trump's assassination incident, although it was a surprise, but the shock caused by the big, the shooter's bullet as long as a little more biased will hit his head, so even if it is not fatal, but also absolutely no possibility of re-election. The problem is that even now the Democrats and Republicans are still evenly matched in the election, and in the end it all comes down to the swing states. Biden is too old and Trump is too loud. If Biden were younger, he would have no problem getting re-elected, and if Trump were more careful with his words, he would have a good chance of getting re-elected. Age isn't the key, it's health. Reagan was very old but became the greatest president of all time. It's also not a problem if you don't speak out of turn. Who doesn't say something out of turn before a presidential campaign?

 

The point is that Trump's shooting is so timely that it may provoke Americans to upset the current balance of power in the race. Kamala's record is far from being comparable to that of the experienced Biden, but she has been able to absorb the votes of some women, minorities and immigrants. Americans' electoral will and order is to elect a black man to replace the white president, then a woman to replace the black president, and a minority to replace the woman, and eventually a transgender person to replace the minority, and then return to the normal electoral order. As for the so-called political performance and platform, Americans do not care. The US electoral system is already full of loopholes and extremely backward, and since the US political system has relative advantages as a guarantee, even if a fool is elected, the basic operation of the country can still be maintained. Donald Trump himself is an excellent example. Before he was elected, a significant portion of the American people did not perceive him as much better than a fool.

 

The US presidential election has never been solely an American affair, and it is a country that has been subject to very serious interference from outside forces, especially in recent decades with the spread of globalisation. Trump was elected with the support of Russia, and Biden with the help of his rivals. Now Russia has been suppressed but the competitors still have strength, so Trump until now have made it clear that he wants to immediately end the Russian-Ukrainian war and turn to suppress the competitors, is that he knows that Russia can still play a role in his re-election campaign, if the competitors to get a head start, Biden was elected, then he will certainly have no hope of re-election, and competitors and Russia and the alliance, through the end of the war as a bargaining chip By ending the war as a bargaining chip, Biden will be able to make Russia sell out its allies and help him in his re-election campaign, which is the best bargaining chip he can offer.

 

This will help Putin not to disclose the evidence that he was helped by Russia to win the election. This is why Putin has repeatedly told the Western media that the biggest enemy of Europe and the US is “the competitor”, not Russia, because he has long been confident that Trump's re-election campaign would change the course of the war, and has therefore gone out of his way to offend his competitors by publicly stating his position to the West. The Democrats can't stop Trump's growing campaign, and since the bullets aren't hitting the target, there's not much else they can do unless the same thing happens again, and if they still don't hit the target, Trump will surely be back in the White House.

 

Of course, in the current situation, even if Trump escaped the assassination, but also does not show that he has gained a clear advantage, the respective support for the Democrats and Republicans of the state has not changed much, and ultimately still have to look at the swing state's electoral votes. After the shooting incident, the Democratic Party can be said to be quite decisive in replacing Biden, on He Jinli, although too hasty, but also a desperate move, if not Biden's sudden incoherence in the debate, as long as to cope with the past Trump want to be elected again this is not easy. Now that the election situation has become more complicated, it cannot be said that Trump will definitely be elected, and the subsequent development still needs to be observed through further observation.

 

拜登太老川普太吵最后證明聲音大的對躲子彈有幫助

 

拜登迫於壓力退選，現在由賀錦麗替代，還是在前幾天拜登仍堅稱不會退選，不過即便是現在態度改變也不令人奇怪。最主要的原因是兩點，首先是在與特朗普辯論的直播中表現不佳語無倫次，要知道這次辯論完全是受民主黨操控主辦的，結果並非兩人在辯論的內容方面有高下之分，完全是因為拜登的回答牛頭不對馬嘴，使得外界覺得他因健康問題根本不適合繼續連任，並且最終引發民主黨內部迫使其退選的壓力，要知道一次辯論表現不佳不值一提，可以另外再安排幾次更妥帖的辯論會。但如果是因身體原因無法履行職務則必然有換人的必要了，但鑒於臨陣換將只有幾個月的時間來講過於緊迫，即便因一次小小的辯論表現不佳就被迫退選對民主黨不利。現在拜登退選已成事實，從客觀上講內部要求他退出的壓力一直存在，只不過是現在最終爆發而已，否則民主黨斷不會在如此敏感時刻冒險。

 

另一個最重要的因素是特朗普擦耳而過的被暗殺事件，雖然是有驚無險但造成的震動頗大，槍手的子彈只要再偏一點就會打中他的頭部，如此即便不能致命也絕無再競選的可能。問題是即便到現在民主共和兩黨的選舉形勢仍然是勢均力敵，最後關鍵還是要看搖擺州。從表面看兩人的缺點都很明顯，拜登太老，川普太吵。拜登要是年輕些連任不成問題，特朗普要是言語謹慎些再次當選機會也很大。年紀大並非關鍵最主要還是看健康程度，雷根當年年紀也很大但最終成為最偉大的總統。口不擇言也不是問題，哪位美國總統競選前不說幾句過頭話。關鍵是特朗普的槍擊案太及時了，很可能激發美國人打破現時的競選情勢平衡。

 

賀錦麗的政績伐善足陳遠不能與經驗老道的拜登相比，但是能夠吸收部份女性，少數族裔和移民的選票，美國人的選舉意願和秩序是先選個黑人取代白人總統，然後女人取代黑人總統，少數族裔取代女人，最後可能發展到變性人取代少數族裔，然後再回歸到正常的選舉秩序中來。至於所謂政績和政綱之類美國人並不關心，美國選舉制度本來就漏洞百出極端落後，再由於有美國政治體制有相對優勢做保障，即便選出個傻瓜來也能維持國家的基本運作。特朗普自身就是一個極佳的例子，在沒有當選前美國人相當部份人對他的認知，也不見得比傻瓜好多少。美國總統選舉從來就不單純是美國人的事情，而且是受到外部勢力干涉非常嚴重的國家，特別是近幾十年來隨著全球化的普及和推廣。特朗普當年的當選靠的就是俄羅斯背後的支持，而拜登則是通過競爭對手的幫助。

 

現在俄羅斯已經被打壓但競爭對手仍有實力，因此特朗普直到現在都開宗明義要立刻結束俄烏戰爭轉而打壓競爭對手的原因，就是他知道俄羅斯仍然可以為他競選連任發揮作用，如果讓競爭對手取得先機，拜登當選則他必定連任無望，而且競爭對手和俄羅斯又是盟友關係，通過結束戰爭作為籌碼使俄羅斯出賣盟友，從而幫助他競選連任是他可以出的最佳籌碼。如此可以解普京之圍，保證其不將他當年受俄羅斯幫助競選成功的證據公佈出來。這也就是普京為何對西方媒體多次稱歐美的最大敵人是競爭對手而非俄羅斯的原因，因為他早就對特朗普的競選連任後會改變戰爭形勢有信心，因此不惜得罪競爭對手對西方公開表態。民主黨目前對特朗普增長的競選勢頭無法阻止，既然子彈都打不中也就沒有太多其他方法了，除非再出現一次相同事件，但如果還是不能一擊而中，則特朗普必定再入白宮。

 

當然，就目前的形勢看即便特朗普躲過了暗殺，也並未顯示他已經取得了明顯優勢，各自支持民主黨共和黨的州份變化不大，最終還是要看搖擺州的選舉人票。在槍擊事件發生後民主黨可以說相當果斷地換掉了拜登，上賀錦麗雖說太過倉促但也是無奈之舉，如果不是拜登在辯論會上的突然語無倫次，只要應付得過去特朗普想再此當選也非易事。現在的選舉形勢變得更加複雜，不能完全說特朗普就一定能夠當選，後續發展仍需要通過進一步觀察。