Akari Neo 根尾あかり

 

東雲うみ

 

Why stupidly used small-caliber rifle to help Trump back

 

As expected, Trump was shot while canvassing for votes. He was shot with a small-caliber rifle from more than 200 meters away. The possibility of hitting the target was low. Although the murderer fired 8 shots and hit the surrounding people, there was no It hurts Trump himself. Under such strict security protection measures, the ambush in a nearby building did not use a sniper rifle, but an ordinary rifle. It can be seen that it was not a professional murder. In fact, it was confirmed that the murderer was just a high school graduate. If a professional killer used a sniper rifle, he could kill him with one shot from more than 200 meters away. Afterwards, because the ambush position was exposed, the murderer was killed by a sniper watching nearby, so the shady story behind it could not be traced. This time, it hit the teleprompter and did not hit him at all. In the end, raising his hands and shouting fight was just a show. This time is very likely that he will be sent back to the White House.

 

Although assassinations of presidents and candidates are common in the United States, and the Security Service provides fairly tight protection to candidates, assassinations still occurred in the end. Internationally, in recent years, Japan's Shinzo Abe was killed at close range, and Taiwan's Chen Shui-bian was shot in a car. Chen Shui-bian's assassination was a script by a director, while Abe died due to a complete lack of security precautions. There are two possibilities for Trump's assassination this time. If you really wanted to snipe him, you could have used a right gun to succeed. The 8 bullets were not aimed at all, they were just fired in his direction. Whether you hit him or not depends on luck, and Trump had better luck and was not injured. Only the ears were scratched by debris, and no matter how big the risk is, it is worth to return to the White House. Otherwise, not to mention the lawsuits he faces, political opponents will never let him go again.

 

If re-elected, it is foreseeable that he will immediately intervene in the Russia-Ukraine war, Putin helped him become president, and he helped Russia get rid of its long-term isolation and siege internationally due to the Russia-Ukraine border conflict and the Crimea issue. As long as he comes to power, he will inevitably use various excuses to intervene in NATO's fight against Russia, and will indirectly withdraw the United States from NATO and disband it in disguise. Forcing Zelensky to trade territory for peace enabled the most blatant act of aggression since World War II. It helps Russia prevent the NATO expansion and promotes the disintegration of the organization-NATO, established during the Cold War, thus freeing Putin from the current passive situation, escaping the fate of being constantly consumed and ultimately failing, and helping him maintain his rule for life.

 

His so-called plan to unite Russia to resist China was a bluff. The ultimate goal was to unite Russia, and dealing with competitors was secondary and excuse. And whether the United States has the ability to compete with its opponents is still debatable. At least this process will take a long time, and the West has been deeply colluding with it for many years. The decoupling cannot be completed in the short to medium term, and Trump only has a term of four years at most. It is impossible to defeat the opponent in such a short period of time. The last time he forcefully suppressed the opponent, it caused a global epidemic, which ultimately led to his failure to be re-elected and to step down. The U.S. policy of supporting competitors after the Cold War has not changed until now. It hopes that the rival side can return to the original U.S.-led relationship between the two countries through internal power transfer, rather than directly competing through armed confrontation. Moreover, Europe and the United States are now concentrating all their energy on dealing with Russia. The so-called competitor is a secondary contradiction and now it is just suppression. Only after Russia's Putin is completely dealt with the West will later point the finger at his competitors.

 

If the Russian issue is abandoned halfway now, the opponent's strength is far superior to Russia, freeing Russia will also take great risks. Once it makes a comeback and unites with competitors to jointly suppress the United States and rebuild the world order, it is difficult to contend alone. Eventually, it developed into a nuclear confrontation with an unpredictable outcome, and the price paid was too high. Now Europe and the United States are gradually consuming Russia in Ukraine, and are exerting pressure and restrictions to limit the competitor dare not to participate directly. The good situation of concentrating all their efforts to solve Russia will be broken. In the end, not only will Russia get out of trouble, but the United States will also face a full-scale confrontation from its competitors. At that time, conflicts will break out in Europe, the Middle East, the Korean Peninsula, the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, Central Asia and other places, and totalitarian countries and terrorists around the world will unite. The United States will not only be exhausted, and it is difficult to cope with attacks from unrestricted warfare overseas and at home.

 

Therefore, even if it is inevitable for Trump to come to power again, for competitors, for Europe, for NATO, for the Democratic Party, for trade wars, for globalization, for the new epidemic, for Biden, for the United States, etc., no matter from any aspects, he will surely face flying bullets again for the sake of long-term peace of mankind, but next time it will from a small kid’s cheap caliber rifle.

夏希

 

小口徑步槍2百米外狙擊能打中靠運氣這次特朗普混過去了

 

特朗普一如所料在競選拉票時受到了槍擊，2百多公尺外用小口徑步槍射擊，擊中目標的可能性不高，雖然兇手連開了8槍擊中了周圍的群眾，但沒有傷及特朗普本人。在如此嚴格的安檢保護措施下，在附近樓上進行伏擊卻不使用狙擊槍，而是普通步槍可以看出並非專業者謀殺，事實上證實了兇手不過是個高中畢業生，用的根本不是搞狙擊謀殺的槍。如果是職業殺手使用狙擊槍，2百多公尺完全可以一槍畢命，事後由於暴露伏擊位置，兇手被附近監視的狙擊手擊斃，因而背後所牽涉到的黑幕也查無可查。不過，特朗普怎麼說也是命大，步槍掃射打中頭部的話基本沒得救，這次打在了提詞器上根本沒有擊中他本人，最後舉手高喊戰鬥是作勢，這次業餘性質的暗殺等於幫他助選，很有可能將他重新送入白宮。

 

雖然暗殺總統和候選人在美國司空見慣，安全局為競選人也提供了相當嚴密的保護，但最後還是發生了暗殺事件。國際上近年日本有安倍近距離被殺事件，臺灣陳水扁車內被射殺的案件發生。陳水扁被暗殺屬於有導演的劇本，安倍則是死于完全沒有安全防範，這次特朗普遭暗殺兩種可能性都有。真要狙殺他換一把槍就能成功，8發子彈根本就沒瞄準，只是對著他的方向掃射而已，擊中與否視乎運氣，而特朗普運氣更好些，自身並未受傷只是在耳朵上被碎片劃傷，滿臉帶血化妝師的刻意塗抹更加完美。對他來說必須再次當選沒有退路，即便冒再大的風險只要重回白宮也值得，否則且不說他面臨的官司，政治對手也絕不會再放過他。

 

如果再次當選可以預見他會立刻干預俄烏戰爭，幫助普京逃避罪責以換取對方不將當年幫他助選的醜聞公諸於眾。他與普京的默契早在多年前已經達成，普京幫他成為總統，他則幫助俄國擺脫在國際上因俄烏邊境衝突和克裡米亞問題而遭到的長期孤立和圍困。只要他上臺必然利用各種藉口干預北約對抗俄羅斯，並且使美國間接退出北約使其變相解散。逼迫澤連斯基以領土換取和平，使得二戰後最明目張膽的侵略行徑得逞。幫助俄羅斯阻止所謂的北約東擴，而且促使冷戰年代建立的該組織分崩離析，從而普京從目前被動的局面中解脫出來，逃避被不斷消耗最終失敗的命運，幫助其維持統治完成終身執政。

 

他當年所謂聯俄抗中的計畫完全是虛張聲勢，最終目的是聯合俄國，對付競爭對手是次要的。而且美國是否有能力抗衡對手還值得商榷，至少此過程需要相當長時間，而且西方多年來與其勾兌很深，所謂的脫鉤不可能在中短時期內完成，而特朗普最多只有4年任期，在如此短的時間內根本不可能將對手搞垮。上次他強勢打壓對方後造成了全球範圍內的疫情發生，最後也導致了他的連任失敗而下臺。美國冷戰後扶持競爭對手的政策直到現在也沒有改變，希望對方能夠通過內部權力交接，回到原來美國主導的兩國關係上來，而不是通過武力對抗的方式直接抗衡。況且現在歐美正在集中全部精力對付俄羅斯，所謂競爭對手是次要矛盾現在只是打壓。等徹底解決俄國普京以後才會將矛頭指向競爭對手。

 

如果現在俄羅斯問題半途而廢，轉而全力對付競爭對手，且不說對手的實力遠在俄羅斯之上，放生俄羅斯也將冒極大的風險，一旦東山再起聯合競爭對手，共同打壓美國重建世界秩序，美國在脫離北約後難以單獨抗衡，最後發展到核對抗結局難料，而且因此付出的代價過大。現在歐美通過聯合聯合在烏克蘭逐步消耗俄羅斯，並且施壓限制打擊競爭對手使其不敢就範，集中所以力量解決俄羅斯的大好局面將被打破。最後不但使得俄國擺脫困境，還會面對競爭對手的全面對抗，屆時歐洲，中東，朝鮮半島，南海，台海，中亞等地爆發全面衝突，全世界集權國家和恐怖分子聯合起來，美國疲於奔命不但海外而且本土遭到超限戰的襲擊難以應對。

 

因此即便特朗普的再次上臺難於避免，但是對於競爭對手，對於歐洲，對於北約，對於民主黨，對於貿易戰，對於全球化，對於新疫情，對於拜登，對於美國等等，無論從哪個方面看特朗普都已經過氣，即便他效仿過往美國總統被暗殺的橋段再次回到總統府，為了人類的長久和平他都將再次面臨飛來的子彈，但下次絕不會是從一直小口徑步槍裡射出。

三上悠亜 Yua Mikami

 

古代通過考武舉到底能否混出來江湖地位怎麼樣

 

自有科舉以來，武舉向為雞肋。文科為朝廷輸送人才，構成了大小官僚的金字塔，可是軍隊裡的軍官們，卻大多為戰陣裡混出來的老行伍，偶爾有個把武舉出身的人進來，也往往立腳不住，不是自己識趣滾蛋，就是在戰鬥中因沒人幫襯白白丟了性命。儘管武科沒用，但卻沒有一個朝代廢了它，不知道是出於制度的慣性呢，還是出於陰陽（文武）平衡的考慮，反正一代代無聲無息地考下去。考出來的武秀才、武舉人、武進士，官府和社會，誰也不拿他們當回事。雖然沒有官做，但考武舉的卻大有人在。原因是不管社會上看重與否，考上了總算是有了功名，有了功名就有相應的官方優惠，就算是最低一級的武秀才，也可以見官不跪，減免些賦役什麼的。

武舉見了真正的縉紳固然矮半頭，但在平頭百姓面前，依舊可以耍耍威風。明清兩代，是科舉成型的時期，制度運行相當穩定，不免一科一科地武舉考出來，武秀才尤其見多。既沒有出路，武舉們只好在社會上做閒人，地方官從來不把他們當回事，可他們自己卻從來放不下紳士的架子。清代有一個流傳甚廣的故事，說是有天一個武秀才扯了一個挑糞的農夫上堂告狀，說是這個農夫在街上撞了他，必須加以懲罰。縣太爺說，既然如此，那就讓秀才打這挑糞的一百個嘴巴吧（有一說是磕頭）。於是武秀才一五一十地打了起來，打到七十的時候，縣令突然說：停，我忘了問你這個秀才是文秀才還是武秀才？答曰武秀才。縣令說，文秀才才能打一百，武秀才只能打五十，現在你打多了，讓這農夫還回來。於是，農夫劈裡啪啦回了武秀才二十個嘴巴，打得武秀才七葷八素。

這個故事無論真假，都說明瞭當時人們對武舉的輕視和武舉自己的自輕自賤。不過這沒辦法，明清兩代科舉出了那麼多名臣和名人，無論誰說歷史都免不了要說到他們，可是誰聽說有哪個歷史上有名的人物是武舉出身呢？儘管武秀才、武舉人、武進士也一科一科地考出來。到了清朝快滅亡的時候，武舉們突然有了一回露臉的機會。那是鬧義和團的時候，北方鄉野，幾乎村村立壇，莊莊練拳，打教堂，殺洋人和二毛子（信天主教的教民）。鄉間的縉紳卷進去不少，其中大多數是武舉，武舉人和武秀才。他們不是親自做義和團的師傅和大師兄，就是給壇口當後台。當然，這可以理解，原本他們就是閒人，這個時候，正是用得著閒人的時候。可惜的是，閒人們好不容易有了用武之地，還是沒有用到正地方，練拳舞刀，沒有把自己練成刀槍不入，自然也就擋不住洋人的洋槍洋炮，老佛爺和小皇帝還是得棄城而逃，武舉們露臉的事很快變成了丟臉，不久就讓人忘記了。

科舉制度本身設置武舉一科，原本未嘗不是想通過考試選拔軍事人才，可是，凡武舉考試實行的時候，中國曆朝大部分時間裡政治的風氣都是重文輕武的，現任的軍事官員都沒人拿著當回事更何況考上來的。清末慈禧朝最後有榮祿上書廢除了武舉制度，取而代之是在各地設立武備學堂，參考西洋軍隊體制編練新軍，培養了大批軍事人才。

 

三上悠亜

 

Trump was shot because Putin had his secrets

 

The Russia-Ukraine war has become more politically complicated with Trump's return to power. Now it is almost the consensus of the West and Russia that the war will be protracted. The reason why Putin uses the human sea tactic to conduct positional warfare at all costs is to delay time and wait. The internal divisions in Europe and the United States after Trump came to power, and the reason why other NATO member states have continuously stepped up their participation in the Ukraine war, is that they intend to have the ability to fight Russia independently as soon as possible without the support of the United States, and have made various preparations for this. 

Objectively speaking, it is almost impossible for Trump to use his power to force all parties to cease fighting after taking office. If the United States stops military assistance to Ukraine, it will indirectly withdraw from NATO. In this way, the United States will be marginalized by Europe and even the world. Not supporting Ukraine is helping Russia, in this way, Trump will become Putin's accomplice, and the United States will lose its world leadership position in disguise.

 

What is ironic is that the so-called rivals that Trump is targeting are actually Russia's biggest supporters. Therefore, the opponents that Trump is prepared to suppress with all his strength in the future, as Putin's allies, are actually on the same front as Trump. Even if Trump is re-elected, his term will only last four years. Europe is fully capable of independent support. Four years later, the United States will still have to return to the current track of joint resistance against Russia. The purpose of Europe's support for Ukraine is to permanently solve the peace problem on the European continent, completely remove the threat from Russia and completely disintegrate it. 

Now Europe's unprecedented unity is fully confident in bringing Russia down. Even according to Trump's request that year, the defense budgets of most European countries had exceeded 2% or more, and it was clearly stated that in the future, in order to deal with Russia, they would soon increase to more than 6% during the Cold War. Trump's so-called support for Russia's invasion without satisfying the percentage has become completely untenable now. As a poor amateur politician, he still does not understand that once NATO is activated as a war machine, it cannot be stopped artificially.  

 

Trump’s so-called reason for a unilateral ceasefire is lacking in basis. Now it is Russia that has invaded Ukraine and launched the largest and longest war of aggression since World War II. Moreover, as one of the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, it is the most important defender of world peace. To invade other countries, any ceasefire must be based on Russia's complete withdrawal from other countries' territories and unconditional compensation for all losses caused by the war, and the criminals who started the war must be held accountable. If Trump wants to support Putin through a truce, he too will eventually be reckoned with at the end of his term. 

What is the ultimate reason why Trump unconditionally supports Russia, the United States’ biggest enemy since the Cold War? There is absolutely no need for him to risk the world’s disapproval and suddenly change the U.S. position to force Ukraine to accept the loss of territory in exchange for the current Western comprehensive confrontation with Russia. The war has only been maintained until now with the support of NATO led by the United States. Once Russia invades Ukraine, the final outcome will not end in failure. If it continues to develop, it will continue to launch external expansion after recovering its strength, at least Russia, the threat to European peace cannot be eliminated and is in danger of worsening at any time. 

 

There is only one reason for Trump to do this in the future, is that Putin has all the evidence that secretly supported Trump's election. Once it is made public, he will surely fall and become a criminal in history. The so-called "Russia Gate" back then was not groundless. Putin At that time, it not only provided financial support but also secretly used state power to help Trump defeat his political opponents and was finally elected. The U.S. electoral system is extremely backward and full of loopholes. The reason why Trump, who was not favored at the time, dared to run for election was because he had secretly obtained some form of commitment from Russia before the election.

Putin hoped that through Trump's election, Russia would be able to break the international isolation that had characterized Russia since 2014 after the invasion of eastern Ukraine triggered a conflict on the Russian-Ukrainian border. The reason why Putin insists on continuing the war at all costs is to wait for Trump to be elected and then use the influence of the United States to force NATO to cease operations. 

 

For Putin personally, even if Russia withdraws its troops unconditionally, Putin can keep his power as a bargaining chip. Otherwise, if the war continues for a long time and Russia's war resources are exhausted, it will be the day when Russia is defeated and Russia is disintegrated and Putin is guillotined. This is the ultimate outcome of the so-called “Russian dream” promised by Putin. 

However, from the moment Putin made up his mind to launch a war of aggression, his inevitable failure was already determined. Even if there are fundamental changes in the development of wars in the future, Putin, as the historical sinner who launched the war, will definitely be liquidated. And if Trump becomes an accomplice, he will face the last shot fired from nowhere. 

永岡玲子

 

普京苦等亲密愛人再上臺的原因是手里有特朗普寫的情書

 

俄烏戰爭隨著特朗普的權力回歸在政治上日卻複雜化，現在戰爭長期化幾乎成了西方和俄羅斯的共識，普京不惜代價利用人海戰術進行陣地戰的原因就是希望拖延時間，等待特朗普上臺後歐美內部的分裂，而北約其他成員國不斷加強參與烏克蘭戰爭力度的原因，就是打算在沒有美國支持下早日具備獨立對抗俄羅斯的能力，並且對此已經做出了各種準備。從客觀上講特朗普上臺後利用權力迫使各方停戰的可能性幾乎沒有，如果美國停止對烏的軍事援助就是間接退出北約，如此美國將會被歐洲甚至國際邊緣化，不支持烏克蘭就是幫助俄羅斯，如此特朗普就成了普京的幫兇，美國將變相失去世界的領導地位。

 

值得諷刺的是特朗普針對的所謂競爭對手，卻是俄羅斯最大的支持者，如此特朗普未來準備全力打壓的對手，作為普京的盟友實際上和特朗普成了同一陣線。特朗普即便他連任也不過4年任期，歐洲完全有能力獨立支撐，4年後美國還是要回到現在聯合抗俄的軌道上來。歐洲支援烏克蘭的目的是希望籍此永久解決歐洲大陸的和平問題，徹底將俄羅斯的威脅解除將其完全分解，現在的歐洲空前團結完全有信心將俄羅斯拖垮。即便按照當年特朗普的要求歐洲多數國家的國防預算都已經超過了2%甚至更多，而且開宗明義今後為了應對俄羅斯，很快就將提高到冷戰時期的6%以上。特朗普當年所謂不滿足百分比就支持俄羅斯入侵的言論，發展到現在已經完全不能成立，作為一個蹩腳的業餘政治家始終不明白，北約作為戰爭機器一旦被啟動進入工作狀態就不可能被人為停止。

 

特朗普所謂單方面停戰的理由缺乏理據，現在是俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭，發動了二戰後規模最大持續時間最長的侵略戰爭，而且是作為聯合國的常任理事國之一，世界和平最重要的維護者居然侵犯他國，一切停戰必須在俄羅斯全部撤出他國領土，並且無條件賠償戰爭造成的一切損失的前提下，並且對發動戰爭的罪犯進行追責。如果特朗普想通過停戰來支持普京，那麼在任期結束後他也將最終受到清算。特朗普無條件支持美國自冷戰年代就是最大敵人俄國的終極原因為何，他完全沒有必要冒天下之大不韙，在目前西方全面對抗俄羅斯的前提下，突然改變美國立場迫使烏克蘭接受喪失領土的條件換取和平，況且戰爭就是在美國主導的北約支持下才維持到現在，一旦俄羅斯在入侵烏克蘭的戰爭中，最終結局並非以失敗而收場，發展下去必然是在恢復元氣後繼續發動對外擴張，至少是俄國對歐洲和平的威脅不能解除，而且隨時都有惡化的危險。

 

特朗普未來如此操作的原因只有一個，就是普京掌握了當年暗中支持特朗普當選的全部證據，一旦公諸于眾他必定倒臺成為歷史罪人，當年的所謂“通俄門”並非空穴來風，普京當年不僅提供資金支援而且暗中用國家力量，幫助特朗普打擊政治對手最後爆冷當選。美國的選舉制度本就異常落後漏洞百出，當年不被看好的特朗普所以敢於參選，就是暗中早就在競選前得到了俄國某種形式的承諾。普京當年希望通過特朗普當選，從而打破因入侵烏克蘭東部地區，引發俄烏邊境沖突后，俄羅斯自2014年開始在國際上被孤立的局面。現在普京不惜代價堅持打下去的原因就是要等特朗普當選，然後利利用美國的影響力迫使北約停止運作。

對於普京個人來講即便俄羅斯無條件撤軍，作為交換籌碼普京也能保住自己權力，否則戰爭長期持續下去俄羅斯戰爭資源消耗殆盡之時，就是俄羅斯戰敗俄國解體普京上斷頭臺之日。這就是普京承諾的所謂“俄國夢”的最終結局。然而，自普京下決心發動侵略戰爭之時，就已經決定了他必然失敗的命運。將來戰爭發展即便有反復進程發生根本性變化，但普京作為發動戰爭的歷史罪人一定會被清算，而特朗普如果成為幫兇，他面對的也將是最後一發，不知從何處射出的子彈。